
As excited as we are about the Nintendo Switch, there are of course doubts and concerns doing the rounds. That's understandable considering Nintendo's record of boom or bust over the past decade, but it's not just passionate Nintendo fans that are believers in the Switch - research firm DFC Intelligence has made some promising projections for the system's prospects.
The firm is estimating that Nintendo could shift around 40 million Switch systems by the end of 2020, a decent number all told. This is with a potentially slow start in mind, too, with stock limits and the launch offerings as potential road blocks - nevertheless "demand is expected to be strong and the major issue will be whether the system can attract a broad audience starting in the holiday sales season of 2017."
The company's boss David Cole also said the following:
The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo's poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.
That's all careful language, but the projected sales figure seems relatively positive to us.
One key benefit the Switch could have, especially in Japan, is the fact that it is - at its core - a particularly powerful portable device. Nintendo is positioning it as a home gaming system in its marketing, but consumers will make their own interpretations of the hybrid device; after all, it caters to various gaming preferences and styles.
All told, 40 million by the end of 2020 (just under four years on sale) would be a decent number - not blowing the doors off, necessarily, but arguably solid enough to secure Nintendo's spot in the market. That'd be far in excess of Wii U (currently 13.36 million in just over four years) and not too far off the momentum that 3DS enjoyed in a similar period.
In any case, it's a solid projection from the research firm; here's hoping that it is indeed 'conservative' with more to come.
[source gamesindustry.biz]
Comments 162
Maybe.
(Maybe around the time the Switch XL is released with a 6-12 hour battery life and a standby mode button)
I really hope it does well. The Wii U could have been so much more improved like the 3ds was with all it's themes and stuff if it had done better. But Nintendo stopped caring about it when it failed...
I've heard hindsight is 20/20, but foresight?
I'm cautiously optimistic about the system's success, and that's partially due to Nintendo not dropping the ball with advertising this time. Still, I hope it does well!
Seen this earlier and I'll say this again. It can sell 15 million alone in Japan so the rest of the world needs to pick up the other 25 million. As long as Monster Hunter releases that is! 😉
Looool try 4 million. It's going to flop even more than Wii U.
To achieve that they will pack a game in and probably drop the price to about £250 by this Christmas.
Not if they keep up with shortages and droughts between games, treating it like its their running gag.
Least its a realistic guess then 100 Million Wii U units.
@Yasume I personally believe the Switch will do better than the Wii U, as it's a new concept with a not so confusing name. I'd give it time though.
That would be impressive, but you bever know: if the next games in the Pokemon and Monster Hunter series launches exclusively on the Switch, maybe.
Well if Switch get Pokemon, monster Hunter and Yokai Watch I can see 30-40 million easy.
The switch is just genius
Easily 40 million units by then. . .Easy. .
Yasume called it folks....only 4 million switches sold in 4 years, 2017-2020.
I think nintendo could sell almost 4 million at launch or within first year if they played their cards right. But i doubt they will. But i dont think its going to bomb with 4 million "lifetime" sales either lol.
I think the Switch could do this well as long as Nintendo can get their act together. They were really smart with their initial marketing and seemed to have modernised how they did things... then the presentation. Nintendo telling people how they'd play? Nintendo concentrating on the gimmick, not the games? Nintendo not willing to take a small financial hit so they cold increase their player base for longer term profit? Old Nintendo won the day.
However, I am optimistic that the Switch can and will sell well. They have made something TRULY exciting and as a big portable fan I pretty much HAVE to buy one for my Pokémon and Animal Crossing.
After 3 years best guess is Xbox One 26 million and Sony says PS4 is 53 million.
So, 40 million in 4 years would put it in the ballpark.
The currently big unknown is 3DS support. Wii U is gone, dead, vanished from retailers, so that is competition anymore. But how long will 3DS stick around? Will we get a $150 New 3DS XL and a $100 New 3DS for the next few years plus games? Or is 3DS done this holiday after FE Warriors?
As others have said, when does Switch get Monster Hunter, Pokémon and a new Animal Crossing game? A real AC game, not a board game.
Also, do they drop the dock and sell it for $200 if it gets off to a slow start? Do they make a SwitchBoy for kids with a smaller screen?
40 million is very doable in 4 years if Nintendo tries. But with its game library Wii U should have easily hit 25 million, but Nintendo never tried. Few games, no marketing, no price cuts, they just let it die in only 4 years.
So, do what they need to, it sells. Keep promoting the 3DS and keep it at $300 and no pack-in game it won't.
Would definitely be good enough to not be considered a failure, that's for sure.
Hope this is accurate.
A quote from Reggie from a previous article Reggie's own quote on Wii u, "Reggie also had an interesting comment regarding the Wii U's failure, admitting that the company was never clear enough on why consumers should make the jump to the console."
Quite honestly rinse and repeat when it comes to switch. Those trailers who exactly are they marketing too. Is it casual gamers or is it Wii U owners. In my honest opinion I have been an on and off again gamer for 30 years and I draw the line at the Wii U when it comes to Nintendo anyway. The Switch to me looks like a slightly improved Wii u in terms of graphics and power. I by no means am a graphics junky but from what I've seen so far when they show MK8 comparisons and Splatoon comparisons are so minimal to me. I feel that nintendo really isn't giving me a reason to want to upgrade and furthermore seeing the division among nintendo sites makes me wonder how are they going to get other gaming communities interested in this. Over priced hardware and peripherals that will run about 500 to 600 by the time you get the console and accessories with no games still. No thanks I have invested enough in Wii- U and the Switch honestly the only positive thing going for is portability but then again only 2.5 hour to 3 hour battery life. Well it was nice while it lasted goodbye Nintendo at least for this generation. I will not be making the Switch.
Last night my wife and I were laughing at how lame the switch looks and their pricing of it. I too think it will have a shorter life span than the Wii - U. I'm also calling it that they will sell a little under the Wii - U. When you factor in some Wii-U owners that will upgrade as well as 3DS owners.
That's a good number. That keeps Nintendo in the playing field, and creates a nice customer base for third parties. I'm probably waiting until 2018 to get one, but I'm hoping for the system to have a wealth of gaming options, first- and third-party.
If they bring everything to the table, such as Pokemon, I think it could achieve those numbers. Time will tell, though.
Only 40 million by 2020 SERIOUSLY!? With Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, Splatoon alone they will rake in 2/5 of that within this year. Alone not including other Nintendo/3rd party titles!
@Yasume How dumb can you get. It's going to be at least above 10 million units
40 million by 2020? No, I think Nintendo can do better than that considering what the Switch is, and especially with its portable aspect. But we'll see..
@Seamoose I think they're just trolling.
@Yasume Go back under your bridge.
I think the success of the Switch is much harder to predict than any other previous hardware. It all depends on wether the market see it as a home console or a portable. It doesn't really matter what Nintendo want it to be. If they market it as a portable but consumers feel it's too big, then it won't be see as a portable.
As a home console, I could see it just repeating the Wii U numbers again as the machine and the library just seem like a seamless continuation of the Wii U. Maybe even worse than the Wii U when you consider how Nintendo's core fan base seems to have been shrinking with every machine since the 80s. However, if the market see it as a portable, it's going to pick up more of that 3DS user base and will easily outsell the Wii U.
Right now, I think the launch will be a sell out as always, then 7 months of struggle, before it picks up with the holiday boost and Mario. Nintendo are lucky though because they have time to completely turn around the perception of the machine. If they come out at E3 and show us Pikmin 4, releasing this year, a new game from Retro releasing this year, and a few other surprises, the whole picture looks COMPLETELY different
@Peach64 But Splatoon 2, Odyssey? They still exist.
@Rman12 See ya, you won't be missed
It will sell so.
Recipe for Switch boost sales :
Pokemon games + Animal Crossing Switch + Mario Kart 9 + Monster Hunter series + Colorful Switch color + Price cut = BOOM...!!!
Good to hear some positivity away from the mindless chitterings of the internet. Sounds about right to me.
@rjejr Nintendo will likely keep the 3DS around until the Switch has a big enough playerbase to shift enough games and keep them in profit, this could be the next year or two.
Unlike with the DS to 3DS, when Nintendo had a hardworking home console to keep up sales, I can see Nintendo moving their big properties onto the Switch (like Pokémon and Animal Crossing) a lot sooner to make it more tempting to move across. Meanwhile there will be plenty of filler titles for the 3DS Pokémon Conquest 2 anyone?
@Anti-Matter It already has some explosive ingredients. LOZ, Splatoon, Odyssey. Your list will be jaw-dropping and wallet popping in 2018 though.
@vegaphil You don't know me and if you can read or actually read my comment I have valid reasons to feel this way. Furthermore years ago I would have defended Nintendo as I was once a blind fan boy as yourself. If there is such division among Switch in the Nintendo community judging from various sites and comments I've been to and read. I highly doubt there going to keep their dwindling fan base of 13.86 million Wii u owners or even their full fanbase of 3DS. So then whats left. I highly doubt people with a ps4 or xbox or whatever other non Nintendo system wants to fork out over 500 to 600 dollars for the hardware and peripherals to an underpowered system that graphically when they showed comparisons of MK 8 and Splatoon running on Wii u and Switch the difference isn't enough to justify a purchase in my opinion. I grew up on nintendo for 30 years before you go further and use I'm a troll excuse just because I feel Nintendo has changed over the years and don't care about listening to what consumers want. That spark and magic I used to feel died with the switch and I couldn't even make it through the presentation I turned it off after about one or two minutes of watching
One of the main reasons I will buy most 3rd party titles on Switch rather than PS4 is because of its portability. I think it's power is sufficient for some solid ports. Portability really sells me on this console.
@youkoaoshi You said it brotha! Give us a portable HD Monster Hunter and ill do jumping jacks for days on end.
@00Wyvern Splatoon and 3D World exist on the Wii U too and didn't really help. I mean sales went up with Splatoon, but not in any meaningful way. It was still selling worse month by month than other 'flopped' consoles like the Gamecube and Dreamcast were. They have to be holding stuff back for E3, and a couple of games between Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey would make the line-up seem much fuller than it does now.
I know people don't like to talk about other consoles, but this year this PS4 is going to have Gravity Rush 2, Kingdom Hearts 2.8, Resident Evil 7, Yakuza 0, Tales of Berseria, Nioh, Horizon Zero Dawn, Ghost Recon: Wildlands, Nier: Automata, Mass Effect: Andromeda, South Park The Fractured But Whole, Tekken 7, Persona 5, Yooka-Laylee, Injustice 2, Detroit: Become Human, Gran Turismo Sport, Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite, Red Dead Redemption 2, Destiny II, Star Wars Battlefront II, Shenmue III (Maybe) and so many more. There's so much choice, it's easy to pick up a new game every month even when you don't like every title. With Nintendo's line up, it's still kind of... even if you like everything they release, you're still only getting about 4 big games all year.
Again, it could all change with E3. Nintendo studio's output seems very low for a good few years now, and they could easily have a whole pile of games saved up for E3 that are coming out in 2017.
@Rman12 Sounds a little dramatic dont you think. So sad you turned the presentation off before 3 minutes had passed, dang.
Problem with Nintendo is that they are always trying to sell their consoles on a profit. If only they sacrifice some profit from the hardware and then make it up with software sales, this could then lower the switch price to that sweetspot where everyone can buy one and then potentially have more user base to buy games.
Another problem is why is there no pack-in game? As ridiculous as 1, 2, switch looks, it would've been nice to have that game packed in with switch even as a soft or lite version. If they claim there really is 20+ mini games, they could've easily spared 3-5 and then have a module where you can pay for the rest of the pack or buy each mini game individually if the players love what they are playing.
@Yasume lol it's has 2 million preorders already. Are you kidding? You must be. That's less than the Atari Jaguar.
It's certainly possible. From what I've seen there's a huge split in impressions from the online forum dwelling gamer and the general public. I think a lot of us forget that the former is in no way reflective of the latter.
Switch's success is really up in the air. Hard to predict.
One thing I will say though is that the March launch feels like an intentional soft launch, and then to have steady sales until the holiday season. A tortoise rather than the hare, so to speak.
It's an optimistic number, but it's possible if Nintendo still has plenty of tricks up their sleeve.
I don't see that happening...
@Peach64 Wiiu was dying before the heroes could come to its rescue. By the time they arrived it was already too late. The poor Wiiu had died a tragic death that not even they could save.
But, the Switch is different its not even born yet, its saviors are already there waiting to bring it to new heights. Get my point?
@Peach64 to be fair splatoon and MARIO 3D came out long after the public made up its mind. These are launch window titles and MARIO is a proper 3D MARIO.
@00Wyvern You just don't get it like the other I responded to. Hardware/peripherals that will run about 500 to 600 by the time your done for a system that runs just slightly better than Wii U. Normally I get excited over Nintendo presentations but the games didn't do it for me. I did watch some of Mario Odyssey and it just seemed weird and odd to me. As much as I love Wii u as I said before and were all entitled to our opinions I don't want to purchase a console that performs slightly better than the one I have.
@Rman12 You aren't investing in one because you didn't see a massive jump in graphical quality? How much were you expecting? We will no longer see graphical jumps like the N64 to the Gamecube. They can only improve so much.
Whether you think it's lame is a matter of opinion. I'll take portability and actual functionality over a cheap Gamepad that was barely ever utilized any day.
@00Wyvern I hope so I was never a fan of the Wii U as a concept, but the Switch is something I find very appealing. I don't care it's not as powerful as a PS4 or Xbox One. Personally all I want from Nintendo is gimmick-free, traditional gaming. I wouldn't like to judge how it's going to pan out before E3 though.
@kirby the vampire. But its more than that. I'm the type of person that something has to grab me right away and i don't follow the hype train either. Instead of trying to justify or come up with reasons to be interested in something it has to hit me right away. For example Wii - U is considered a commercial flop and yet I fell in love with it day 1 and its my only console. But for some reason Switch felt like it had no personality and It left me feeling empty and I couldn't even watch an event I have always been excited about the unveiling of a new Nintendo console but nope not this time.
@Rman12 Thats a personal opinion and doesn't dictate the success or failure of each game.
A "decent" number? That'd make the Switch Nintendo's best-selling console (excepting the Wii) since the SNES by a wide margin, and in only four years.
@Rman12 I see a huge spec jump from the 3ds to this. It is a hybrid after all. It's a huge jump over the vita too. 😜
@Rman12 Yes I can read but it was so frighteningly dull I must admit I dozed off towards the end. My sincerest apologies for that.
@Vegaphil Boom! mic drop
@Peach64 Yeah i hear yah. But we have to look past the past and the Wiiu. The Switch is already getting most of everything right the poor Wiiu failed trying to do. I mean we're getting the open-world Mario sand-box game we all wanted since Sunshine and 64 THIS YEAR for gaming's sake! So i hope we can all just gain a higher appreciation for what we know we're getting instead of being cautious and worried based on another console's history.
Give it Monster Hunter and Pokemon, and Japan will buy it right away
@TheLZdragon Those Japanese and me will kill for a Pokemon and Monster Hunter Switch am i right?
@Rman12 It was the complete opposite for me, lol. I thought the Gamepad might be kinda cool in some cases, but by no means was it a system seller for me. On the other hand, when I saw the Switch reveal trailer for the first time, Nintendo had me hook, line, and sinker. That seems to be the case for a lot of people, too, seeing as the Switch has way more people's attention than the Wii U ever did. After all, it does everything the Wii U tried to with the Gamepad, but better, save for the lack of a second screen when playing games, but that's not necessary for a great gaming experience. If it were, all the other platforms would have Gamepads too.
The Wii U is fine, and I'm glad you enjoy it, but that's just personal opinion. The world at large is much more interested in the Switch. Maybe as more games get revealed, you'll change your mind. Games are ultimately the most important aspect of any console, anyway.
So much negativity. I will likely end up buying 4. unless i get unlucky and they make a Zelda one. I am expecting one for me and three...maybe four as gifts to friends and family. My mother is frothing at the mouth for one.
Well, the scalpers will help towards the number at least...
@Vegaphil your humor amazes me that you laugh at yourself because someone else has a difference in opinion what are you five years old now. You contradicted yourself as well if it was so frightfully dull as you say but yet you read it to the end. If it was so disengaging then why read it in the first place.
@DanteSolablood I can't figure out the 3DS. I keep thinking it's over but they keep giving it more games I nearly had a heart attack the end of last year when it go SMM, Pikmin, Poochy & Yoshi, Mario Sports Superstars. We're talking about a console in it's 6th year getting all of those games, some new, some ports, and Wii U got nothing after 3 1/2 years. And I'm still waiitng to find out if that Pikmin game is Pikmin 4 or not. Bu tI though tit was over after that, but a new FE game remake, and FE Warriors in the fall. So who knows. I do know 3DS XL has bene out for going on 5 eyars and it has nevr once got a price cut in the US, it has been $199 since it launched, so it's well overdue. And maybe a New 2DS for the amiibo support for the kids?
I'm really curious about new 3DS games at E3, that's when we find out how Switch is going to go.
I really hope that it performs at least that well, though I'm not entirely convinced yet.
I sincerely hope they've secured Monster Hunter. That will kickoff sales, at least in Japan
I mean... It could be a recipe for success...
3D Mario, Splatoon 2, Pokemon (hopefully a new gen), Luigi's Mansion 3, Metroid, F-Zero, Kirby... There's so much they could/need to do.
But... A good start would be letting 3DS/Wii U owners keep their purchases.
All of this 'flop' talk reminds me of the Wii launch. When people heard about the power and lack of HD, minds were lost and dummys were spat out - but we all know how that ended up.
@Iggy-Koopa Exactly what i was thinking! "Lets see,hmmm, i wonder what this reminds me of" ?
As long as the Switch gets off to a decent start over the next year it will begin to pull developers away from 3ds onto the Switch system. Once the 3ds is mostly done with major new game development the Switch will take off even more. I
@Angelic_Lapras_King There's a lot of 'one per household/zip/post code stuff going on at the moment, and part of me believes that they will help prevent it this time. That while NES thing was a different story, and switch is x5 the cost. Must be some rich-ass scalpers out there.
@rjejr The 3DS' success is actually pretty simple, it's a good product with great titles.Though it had such a terrible launch everything could have been quite different. Unfortunately the Wii U's failure probably did it a favour too with people seeking Nintendo games elsewhere following bad publicity.
I think the biggest difference between the 3DS and Wii U however is that the 3DS wasn't a huge leap from the older DS in terms of development and a lot of studios were around that specifically made less powerful games. The Wii U however was a LOT more powerful than the Wii, but was also hard & expensive to develop for.
We'll see what happens, but it would be madness for Nintendo to drop support for their only BIG source of income at the same time as pumping huge wads of investment into the Switch.
With this response, the quality of the hardware, it's presentation, and a steady scheduled release of games. Yes. Nintendo is absolutely poised to gain traction and sustain sales over the next four years.
They can reach that number!
I predict fine Holiday sales. There won't be a drastic price drop for the console this year, but they will bring attractive bundless for the Holiday market.
Accessories should see some price drops by the end of 2018 at the latest.
@Roam85 #1 "Maybe around the time the Switch XL is released with ... a standby mode button"
The Switch actually has a stand by mode. They showcased it on the Japanese hands-on stream. They pressed the power button quickly while BotW was running and the screen went black. Then they pressed it again and the game returned. Seemed to work exactly like a mobile device or hitting the switch on 2DS.
I totally believe switch will be a success.
@Yasume The Wii U failed to take off mostly because of the confusion surrounding what it actually was. People saw it as an add on to the Wii and ignored it. By the time the public figured it out, it was too late to make up for lost ground. The Switch doesn't have this problem. Nintendo has clearly distinguished it as something new and that alone will help it pass the Wii U in terms of sales. Seriously, 10 million is a sad, sad number.
I'll say 30 million by 2020
@Iggy-Koopa Yeah, but they find ways round that.
I'm sure it won't be bad as the NES Mini, but the fact that some US Preorders have already sold out and now the Coloured Joycon Console bundle is sold out on the Nintendo UK Store, time will tell...
I'm predicting it too well pretty well at launch simply because of the loyal fanbase. Sales will be meh until the holiday season when marketing for Super Mario Odyssey and more roles out. Sales will continue to be meh again until heavy hitters like Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, and Pokémon role out. Then sales will start to pick up and it'll probably be around the 40-50 million total when it gets later in its lifespan.
My prediction was probably a bit bold but something about the system is giving me a sense of optimism.
@00Wyvern It's a home console that can be moved easily. It is not a portable device.
I'm not sure about this number,
I've still seen no adverts for the zelda game and I feel the first year could be more like 6 million units then 4 million for 2018.
This is based on the life cycle of the 3DS and how hard Nintendo will fine it to get customers to spend up from £150 3dsxl to £280 if they continue to make games for 3ds.
@ferrers405 I don't know about that.
Don't feed the troll people.
Even with some fumblings, I think 40m is pretty doable but the key thing will be getting that 3DS/Vita crowd (especially in Japan) to bite. Pokemon alone would guarantee at least 10m but Nintendo would have to start seriously pushing the Switch as their true one platform going forth before that can happen. Right now, they're mainly pushing the Switch as a home console while leaving breadcrumbs for their handheld base to follow.
It's a tightrope walk because this is an experiment that could go wrong and they'd want to have the (3)DS line still there kicking to fall back on. But if there doesn't appear to be enough conviction in this "merger" to draw in the crowd that usually buys their handhelds then it could go wrong anyway...
40 million would be a decent result. Keep Nintendo a perch in the market. Hopefully Switch will be modular hardware that can be improved and built on and also that it's the start of a proper ecosystem rather than just a generation on its own.
So many variables and unknowns at this stage though. It could do better, it could do worse (shrugs)
Yokai and Pokemon need to make appearance.
@freaksloan What? No, that's completely wrong. It's very clearly a portable. The device can be used without an external power source without losing any functionalities whatsoever. The dock just a link to connect it to your TV and use USB ports. It's as much of a home console as the PSP or the Vita were.
In fact, given the USB-C socket, I'd argue that it's the most portable Nintendo handheld since the GBA SP.
I don't really consider anyone capable of seeing the future, so to me this is "Random Company Says Words" but if it was true and Switch managed 40 million, I'd be pleased. Of course, as long as I get Mario Odyssey in my lifetime I'll be pleased, ha ha. So... Bring it on, Nintendo! (Oh and Snipperclips too. Man, that game catapulted to the top of my list after the Treehouse Live on it!)
I'm currently thinking around 30 million, and most of that will be in Japan. I hope it does better, but right now I don't see it.
All of the Kool-Aid drinkers should be well-apprised: this is the same 'analyst' firm that confidently proclaimed that the Wii U would hit 25m units sales lifetime.
http://gimmegimmegames.com/2013/11/dfc-wii-u-lifetime-sales-will-pass-25-million-nintendo-using-right-strategy/
Whoops.
I see that as achivable if and only if this thing becomes both WiiU and 3DS replacement.
@Iggy-Koopa yeah about 100 million Wii's gathering dust after a year.
All things are almost possible, but 40,000,000 is a big ask and may be it will need a graphics update before then.
That said if the Switch can play 3d games or a second tablet that does play 3d games replacing the 3ds then 80 millions is possible.
Is that similar to XBO numbers? It's far below PS4
@Jessica286 Which it won't, at least not during the most important time which is the first 12 months of retail availability. That's when a console's reputation is set in stone, and where an enormous chunk of its total unit sales and profit lifetime comes from.
@Mando44646 That would be about 56% over the current unit sales for the XB1.
@JohnGrey it will dude, is portable which automatically makes it a huge deal in Japan.
i don't think this is possible ... i mean PS4 one of the best consoles ever made and the no.1 on this generation best seller and so far in 3 years only 50 million PS4 sold and its cheaper / more powerful / huge library than switch and only 50 million in 3 years ... so in 3 years i don't see nintendo switch sell 40 million units ... BTW xbox sold 24 million units so far
@peeks not 40 but I can see it selling 20.
@Jessica286 It won't, 'dude', because you don't understand the portable market. Is non-home console gaming an increasing trend in Japan? Yes. Know what else is increasing? The defection rate of Japanese gamers away from dedicated gaming hardware to other mobile devices.
40 million feels optimistic to me. I could see it in the 20-30 million range. Maybe.
I'd agree with their estimate and I'm in the business of estimates and have invested in many video game stocks previously (but never Nintendo...they're not shareholder friendly) .
The key will be the games, as always, but thus far the clear messaging alone should bring way more fans to the Nintendo plate.
@Moshugan awesome! That actually immediately makes me feel lightyears better about the battery life. I never really notice the 3ds battery limitations because I take enough breaks and standby mode holds it forever.
Between the legitimately cool portability feature that will be useful with every game on the system, the much less confusing name and concept, the increased public awareness, and the already superior first party support, the Switch has a lot more going for it than the U ever did. Doesn't mean Nintendo can't bungle this opportunity, but this could be big for them if it does well.
@JohnGrey If the first 12 months are what set a console's reputation in stone, then the 3DS, PS3, and Xbone wouldn't have done nearly as well as they ended up doing. Continued software support and marketing are much more important.
It and it's "NEW" iteration down the line with extra battery will sell closer to 55 or 60 million once Nintendo stops pretending it's a home console and starts treating it like a portable with a super game boy attachment built in. There's a lot to like here (except the price, which needs to be Switched to something lower)
If they keep treating it like a home console it'll get to 20 million... maybe?
@Rman12 I have both Xbox One S and a PlayStation 4 (in fall Scorpio) and I have pre-ordered the Switch. So yes Xbox and PlayStation owners will certainly buy the Switch.
I don't know about 40 million.. I hope so. I'm thinking 20-25 million. But I hope this thing is very successful. I can't wait to receive mine!
@jarobusa. Yeah but your one among many I meant on a mass scale and there aren't 40 million wii u owners so this number I believe will not happen in four years and there losing wii u owners as well. Sure there will be 3DS users but not all. Sure some others as well but I just don't believe the masses are going to buy into this.
@Ralizah 'If the first 12 months are what set a console's reputation in stone, then the 3DS, PS3, and Xbone wouldn't have done nearly as well as they ended up doing. Continued software support and marketing are much more important.'
It's my fault for not using the more concrete 'consumer conception' rather than 'reputation' but you're misunderstanding me. I don't meant that the opinion of a console is set in stone, in the sense of being a net positive or negative, but that the consumer conception of its value proposition tends to remain static after that point. An example is the GCN, whose diminutive physical appearance and relatively innocuous early lineup labelled it a kiddie console and it was never able to alter that conception. The problem at that the Switch faces is that its category conception is in turmoil. Ostensibly it fills the role of being both a home console and a handheld, but the consensus I've seen from gamers is that it's generally viewed as a handheld that is dockable. The problem with is that that conception goes contrary to Nintendo's vested commercial interest. It HAS a portable, a strong one with with at least 12 months more life left in it, while it rather brutally and unceremoniously killed its failed home console, which needs a successor to keep that product category relevant for Nintendo's brand; that's why Nintendo, and especially RFA, is pushing the 'home console first' narrative so hard in during the pre-launch window. The very last thing that Nintendo wants or needs is for the consumer to view the Switch as primarily a handheld because that puts it into direct competition with its current primary handheld, and against the value proposition of the 3DS which, with better battery life, more robust physical construction (clamshell protecting screen and controls), smaller size, lower price, and thousand-game library, the Switch has only novelty and the draw of the triple-A experience (you can look to the Vita for how great a draw that is).
With mobile taking up so much slack in portable gaming, Nintendo cannot afford for 12 - 18 months of lacklustre Switch sales (ex the launch which should be reasonably strong) with the 3DS continuing to bat cleanup because they can't kill it outright. If they have a performance miss during that window, then the Switch remains a 1st party machine only, and we saw what the meant for the Wii U.
Well, I think the Switch's success rides wholly on one thing: whether or not Pokémon Stars is actually happening. If that comes this holiday season, along with Mario, sales will explode.
Good grief, how can a Nintendo comment section be so negative and miserable.
Double the lifetime sales of the Gamecube. Greater than the lifetime sales of the N64. Not far off the lifetime sales of the SNES (pronounced SNEZZZZZZZZZZ). Will they bet money on this statement? It's a bold statement.
That if they will still be supporting it by then.
@MadameSpuki 40 million units in 4 years time seems reasonable.
I said to my friend last night "the switch sales will be on the same level as the 3ds numbers", so it's almost the same prediction.
@Ryu_Niiyama
Funny you mentioned that I'm just waiting for a proper animal crossing to buy the wife one as well... hoping a new switch animal crossing bundle/version just for her 🙂
If they have strong advertising for the eventual Animal Crossing and Pokémon titles, they'll get this number easily.
The soft launch with expensive accessories, 299 starting price, and free? Yet soon to be charge a fee online service is all by design.
Since the launch will sell out, squeeze as much profit as possible before the holiday season.
But Mario needs to be ready..
@faint I know you were responding to a ludicrous claim of 4 mil max units but the switch has not sold out outside of the USA yet. We know they sold 500k units allocated to the US. But in many other countries you can still preorder one, so they have not really sold the 2 mil they confirmed were available at launch yet have they?
Ppl saying Switch will bomb worse than WiiU are just silly. 40mil in 4 seems possible. Ninendo is not going to cut its own throat so expect 2017to be last fully supported year for 2/3DS. It will linger on just as GBA and DS did for a while but don't expect more frontline games after this year.
Switch is being wrongly positioned (shocking right) as what it is is the most powerful portable ever with a home component. I expect it will get sorted out and as long as dock is available seperately why not offer a no dock version soon as well?
Switch will do fine because it is both the wiiu and 3DS succesor and once it has the likes of pokemon, fir emblem and all the jrpgs from vita and 3ds it is going to shift a lot of units.
They have Zelda, Kart, MarioO, Splatoon, and a pokemon game by xmas and you tell me they arent shifting major units...bull.
I am ready for launch, but admit the lineup is thin ATM and that is irksome. Yet Zelda is a beefy game and will likely take a weeks for to complete. I really hope we get Fast RMX as I love that on WiiU and would love to have on cart and portable. Also lets hope they have some could eshop and a little new VC launch day.
Dont know why but $70 pro controller nowhere to be seen for preorder in USA.....my launch day is Switch, Zelda, and ProCon unless some suprise games show up between now and launch.
@Yasume Wow that's positive. What are you doing here?
@00Wyvern
Oh, don't forget. Add with Fire Emblem Switch version will result KABOOM...!!! XD
The switch will sell well. It's just sad that the same was said about the Wii u
This doesn't seem like a crazy estimate, but DFC also predicted that the Wii U would sell 25 million, and they predicted that about a year AFTER it released (AKA once sluggish sales were abundantly clear), so I wouldn't put much stock in what they have to say. The Switch could sell significantly more than what they're predicting, but it could also sell significantly less...I sincerely hope it's the former.
I would say yes, but the fact nintendo is still bent on 3ds support and having a successor to the 3ds, that's going to cut into potential sales.
The focus needs to be that switch is the answer to console and portable.
Not a crazy prediction at all. The 3DS sold around 50+ million during the same time frame (March 2011 - December 2014), though it was much cheaper, with the 2DS in particular retailing at 40% the current price of the Switch when it launched in 2013.
Unlike the Wii U, the Switch will be sold at a profit during launch, which would allow Nintendo to lower the price of the Switch (which I expect will happen in time for the 2017 holidays) without incurring massive financial losses.
Unlike the Wii U, which couldn't properly function without the Gamepad, the Switch is modular. In the future, Nintendo could easily release a "portable-only" Switch, without the dock, HDMI cable, or grip, for $200 USD (or less), since none of those peripherals are needed for the Switch to properly function. The Switch could still be used in "portable" and "tabletop" modes, so it would still retain part of its hybrid nature.
I think will see it as a portable, a very expensive one.
Only if there is a price drop within the first year I'll believe those numbers.
Still, if Nintendo really opens up the tablet to streaming apps, media apps and other stuff, it could sell even more.
@westman98 The Switch also has a much better first 9 months than the Wiiu in terms of software. Splatoon, MARIO kart and 3D World all sold over 4 mill on the WiiU and they are all coming out in that time frame for the Switch not to mention Zelda and ARMS, which has potential to be a success.
@kendorage seeing as it's selling through 2 million launch units I'm thinking 4 million units will be easy. To me the switch is basically what I've always wanted, true console games that I can play anywhere.
@roboshort
Exactly. Many people like to point to the fact that the Wii U had a good amount of great first party games, but those games were spread out thinly over the 3-4 years. The Switch is getting a much higher concentration of software over its first 9 months on the market.
The 2012- 2013 Wii U first party lineup looked something like this:
-NSMBU
-Nintendo Land
-Pikmin 3
-Zelda Wind Waker HD
-Mario 3D World
The 2017 Switch lineup looks something like this:
-Zelda BOTW
-Arms
-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
-Splatoon 2
-FE Warriors
-Xenoblade Chronicles 2
-Mario Odyssey
-(Rumored) Smash Bros Wii U port
-(Rumored) Pokémon Stars
The Switch will almost certainly get a brand new Mario Kart, Smash Bros, and Pokémon game in the future. It will also be the home to the mainline Fire Emblem games (already confirmed for 2018), Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Life, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, etc, all of which were franchises that the Wii U never received.
They can believe what they like. I'm predicting Wii U: Part Deux.
Also, DFC predicted Wii U sales would reach 25 million. And that prediction came a year after it launched when Wii U was already tanking at that point. Wii U managed just over half of that total.
@mjharper Question. Assuming that there will be no price cut. Why wait for something you're going to get. Might as well get it now.
@arrmixer I feel ive given the switch a hard time recently, and whilst I still have concerns, the price is not one of them. I dont understand why so many people are saying the system with accessories is too expensive. Its really not.
If you compare to PS4: PS4 was £350 at launch, had one controller and no games. So to buy a controller was £55 and to get a game was another £55. Thats £460.
The Switch is £280, comes with two controllers. So already its beating the competition on price, but okay, for arguments sake lets add a pro controller. Thats another £60. Add a game which is £40-50 in most places now.
So for a console, two controllers and a game for the ps4 is £460. For a console, THREE controllers and a game is £370-£390. Thats £70-90 LESS than the competition. Oh but the switch is portable, so lets add £150 for a ps vita and...oh...nothing, to the Switch. Thats £610 vs £370-£390. There is no competition. The Switch is VERY competitive and to bring it to the subject at hand, I feel could easily hit 40 mil in its lifetime.
@westman98 I see what you are getting at dude, and I largely agree. But if you thinkbwe are getting Xenoblade 2 this year you are out of your mind! Thats will be a Xmas 2018 im fairly certain. Really hope im wrong, but considering Xenoblade Chronicles X only came out Xmas 2015, development for X2 has probably only been going around a year. Games like this take around three years at the very least.
@westman98 I see what you are getting at dude, and I largely agree. But if you thinkbwe are getting Xenoblade 2 this year you are out of your mind! Thats will be a Xmas 2018 im fairly certain. Really hope im wrong, but considering Xenoblade Chronicles X only came out Xmas 2015, development for X2 has probably only been going around a year. Games like this take around three years at the very least.
@Rman12 Completely agree.
@geordie More fool them, I was busy enjoying multiple title by then.
@Angelic_Lapras_King There's always bound to be a few eels that slip the net, but I think the impact will be lessened by these measures. If Nintendo can keep up with the demand for Switch, some scalpers will be forced to take a hit.
Then again, there's always the lingering doubt over the NES Mini debacle. It certainly would not be unreasonable to have doubts in light of this, however I feel that they have learned a valuable lesson when it comes to supply and demand. After all, they could have potentially doubled (if not tripled) their sales had they kept up.
Not to say that Switch will be in as high demand (the price is definitely within the realms of premium/luxury), but the preorders alone should give them a good estimation of how many they will need to throw out in the launch window.
@00Wyvern The parity between the two situations is indeed staggering.
If it gets the NES Mini/Pokemon Go/Super Mario Run hype, it could do better.
@Yasume Experts with a track record? How dare they think their research is more reliable than my opinion!!!!!!
The Dragon Quests/Monster Hunters/Fire Emblems/Pokemons/Yokai Watches of this world have the potential to push the sales of the Switch through the roof, especially in its home market.
Some of those titles might not be announced just yet but it's pretty much a given that they're on their way.
@westman98 Wow. The Switch's line-up looks does much better. It seems like a lot of people don't realize on here that having a killer app is much more important quantity, though more games is definitely a plus.. Like Halo pretty much carried the original Xbox on its back...
I got to play the Switch in Tokyo, which was a really well-done event that got me pretty hyped. They probably should have done something like that in the US and Europe, too. It was well thought out and showed exactly what the Switch is about, versatility, really well.
Honestly, it better sell that much by then, or it won't be much of a successor to both their home and handheld lines.
Should they decide to split their audience by announcing another system within the next two years however, I'd imagine they jeopardize their chances of making the Switch as big a success as it can be.
That is if it will sell well. If not I doubt it will rech that number. We have to wait and see
@Peach64 I mostly agree with you with your sales predictions. The thing is the Switch will appeal to more people than just WiiU crowd. Those that are non-WiiU owning portable gamers also. Being a hybrid people will make up there own mind how they mostly want to use it and for that reason we need to start thinking more like lots of 3DS sales plus a few WiiU sales. I think most of us are expecting Switch to do well in Japan for this reason. Hopefully there'll be enough hype/games/sales for the home console users to get on board too in the West
@westman98
Wait, Tomodachi Life on Switch (Even still rumour) ?!
Here's why Switch launch will be a disaster:
People who wants to buy Switch at launch are mostly Nintendo fans. Most already owned the Wii U. Zelda is the reason to buy Switch at launch, but it's also coming out on Wii U... so what's the point of getting a Switch? To play 1-2-Switch? I don't think so.
@Rman12 "The Switch to me looks like a slightly improved Wii u in terms of graphics and power. I by no means am a graphics junky but from what I've seen so far when they show MK8 comparisons and Splatoon comparisons are so minimal to me."
The reason for this is because the Wii U was way better than the general population want to give it credit for. Most people who complained seemed to not own the system. In addition, Mario Kart 8 looks and plays better than 99% of the games I have played on XB1 and PS4, in my opinion.
For me, the issue isn't how good the game looks, or how many frames per second it's claimed to run at, or whether it's 720p, 900p, 1080p, or 4K. The issue is, we now live in a day and age where the kneejerk reaction to something that gets an initial positive impression (Switch) is to bash it and tell the world how it sucks, it's stupid, it's going to fail, etc. look no further than "anonymous" message board posts, twitter, Facebook, etc. to prove my point.
Have a favorite athlete/musician/band/political figure/ religion? Post something positive on a message board and watch the hate roll in. Guaranteed. Every. Time.
It's sad that we live in a world and in a time when we have access to so many incredible goods and opportunities and to all of the knowledge of mankind, yet we choose to use it carelessly and angrily. I, for one, am looking forward to playing games at home and on the go with Nintendo Switch regardless of how much some people simple don't want me to.
That's a very high estimate. I think it will sell well in Japan, but be limited in Europe and the U.S. especially if higher tariffs are imposed with new administrations.
Well, with the Playstation 4 outselling the Playstation 2 at the moment, and still going strong (possibly to become the highest selling system of all...beating the PS2), it could happen, but not with the Switch. I see the Switch selling better than the Wii U and the Gamecube, but I see it being on par with the N64's sales...not really coming close to the Wii. It'll sell on launch, but how many of those people will be putting them online for higher costs or trading them in later on? I see it selling more towards the holiday season, but that will be up to nintendo to make decent bundles or price drops to help it move...no matter what (even if the system is under par of the PS4 or XBONE), they're going to be competing for sales...no matter what, so they need to get those consumers buying the Switch...but it's not going to become a state of 'LET'S BUY THE SWITCH INSTEAD OF A PS4 or XBONE'. Nintendo fans will buy the Switch...which will equal to most of the 13mill that bought the Wii U...it's up to nintendo to make the rest of the people buy it, which is not in nintendo's favor right now...they still have a lot of work to do to repair their reputation, which is why I'm seeing their next console (after the Switch) becoming their money maker glory like the Wii, instead of this one.
@Hordak Your opinions are correct! Except I don't agree with Mario Kart 8 looking better than many games on the PS4 and XBONE...to me it still wasn't a great leap that it could have been. I always thought the Wii U could have been better if it would have sold better, thus leading to even nintendo themselves making better games, but it never really seemed to happen. I honestly liked the Wii U...had some games that kept me playing, but it seemed to me that the games lagged in what nintendo could do...they were games that were playable for a few hours and that was it...cheap tie-ins and cheap games to make a profit for nintendo but also make the Wii U owners happy until something better came, or just to fill some space on the retail store side to make it look like the system has something on it.
What you stated about the internet is completely true, and it's always going to be like that, which leads to the people that buy the system and the games, to let the word out. I own the Ghostbusters game on PS4 (yup, the one that got the worst reviews possible) and I actually liked it...it was fun, not the best graphics, not the best gameplay, horrible voice acting, but it was fun, and I beat it fully earning all of the trophies...my wife and I love playing it, which shows that I don't look at the graphics, I enjoy games for the fun factor...if I have a game that I can actually play through, beat it and replay it again, that's a fun game to me! Probably why I always end up choosing nintendo and sony for my game consoles, and why I love playing games by Sega even (yup, owned the Genesis, 32X, Game Gear and Dreamcast back in the days...still have all).
@j-life Backlog of Wii U games. And there may be a pack-in game by then.
They need to keep delivering good software throughout 2017 and good bundles at Christmas and they should be ok. If they end up delaying any of the big titles (which has been a fairly standard practice on the Wii U) and I think it'll be terminal for the machine. I really hope for the best and currently am planning a Christmas purchase of the machine.
@rjejr i have been thinking about why Nintendo let the Wiiu die. What if the Wiiu was like the Virtual boy? Something had to fill the gap between Wii and Switch so they launched the Wiiu. They stopped support of the VB in a year. Wiiu 5 years
@Marshi
Nintendo has stated that Xenoblade Chronicles 2 will be a 2017 release. I personally think it will be a fall 2017 release in Japan, and will get pushed back to spring 2018 in the west. The game should definitely be released well before holiday 2018.
@Anti-Matter
Nintendo has not confirmed anything about that. It was my own assumption. Tomodachi Life was incredibly successful on the 3DS in Japan and Europe, so I see no reason for Nintendo not to develop a sequel on the Switch.
@Rman12 With all due respect, if you buy a Nintendo console because of it power, you are monstrously missing the point.
@Billsama @Hordak - I get where your coming from but I never buy nintendo systems because of its power. The point I was making is that when they did side by comparisons I felt that the games only looked slightly better than the Wii U versions and not enough to justify spending around 500 to 600 dollars by the time you get the hardware and all the peripherals. That's why I will be sticking with my Wii - U. I have spent enough money and I have a huge backlog of games and I only game two to four hours a week. With the amount of games I have yet to play on Wii - U for me I just don't see the appeal of the switch other than It's portable and now will have 3rd party support. Quite honestly when I upgrade although I don't care about graphics I don't want to get something that looks and runs almost the same but slightly improved than what I have. I feel that is a waste of money and I personally just don't see Switch being a success. I'm not going to bash those that like it or enjoy it. Me personally I'm going to skip on Nintendo this generation because I don't want to pay for something that looks very comparable to what I have. I never wished it to fail it's just I personally don't believe Nintendo has learned from Wii- U's commercial failure even though Wii - U is my favorite console. Switch just didn't appeal to me and I don't believe it will hit 40 million but hey if it does thats great.
@Bass_X0 That is fantastic, lol. And good advice to others as well: when you post images make it relevant to the topic, and avoid GIFs at all costs.
@Nintendian
The vast majority of the hardcore fans who will be buying Zelda at launch will buy the Switch version. There is a reason why hardcore fans are "hardcore"; they will buy Nintendo's newest product at launch (aka the Switch), and they will buy the newest entry of a big franchise to play on that new product that they just bought, not on an older and irrelevant product (aka the Wii U).
Twilight Princess sold far better on the Wii than on the GameCube. I see no reason why this should be different.
Your comment also makes it seem like the Switch's success will hinge on the success of a single game (Zelda), which is a ridiculous assumption to make. Even if Zelda BOTW was a complete dud, there are still plenty of other software coming to the Switch, though Zelda being a dud would definitely hurt (but not "doom") the Switch's launch.
I think 40 mil (10 mil per year) is definitely possible by year end 2020. It will all be about the games. The right games and bundles will move the console. Especially if development for the 3DS slows down. The concept is incredible.
Nintendo Switch has great potential, only thing it has working against it is ... Nintendo.
I love Nintendo games and was all set for pre-order. Now after hearing about voicechat only via smartphone - possibly all hub-stuff also, limited production & fewer games than expected, bad choices like no charging in the standard JoyCon-thingies (don't remember what that part is called ), no bundles/included software etc. etc. I'm a bit more cautious. I'll still get one for the first-party games only Nintendo can produce, but I'm not as optimistic about the systems future as I was.
Nintendo obviously still has problems letting go of the past... too bad.
@Rman12 I can respect that, its a personal decision. I hope you change your mind eventually. Maybe when the system is out. I personally don't see point of comparison between Wii U and Switch. For me it is a huge step forward. In graphics or performance? Maybe not, but almost in every other way: Portability, improved development enviroment, revamp online system (Hopefully), lot of way to play, unification of console and handheld divisions (And franchises), return and improvement of motion control, you name it. Huge step forward, especially if you compare it with 3DS. Nevertheless you have a valid point and is interesting to see that the new system is not for everyone.
20 mil is looking more realistic, unless nintendo plans on giving this thing steady software every year. I. E. dropping 3ds support for Switch.
@Syrek24 That's unfortunate, because I plan to stick here for a while;)
@JohnGrey Couln't say it myself better (read all your comments). I see Switch as both handheld and home console, but I noticed people tend to mistaken it as a handheld-only (I seen lot of people calling it phablet for gaming, heh) rather than looking at both of their functions. Switch is the only console ever to bring and manage to connect portable and home gaming which is awesome. Sadly so far it has poor launch line, overpriced accessories and game titles and still lacks information that will be very important for a success.
Sadly Nintendo so far failed at most of their "analyzes", notably with Wii U or even in Pokemon Sun&Moon first two challenges that failed miserably. I think sometims it's better to predict less than expect a lot and end ultimately disappointed. Being realistic should be the right way in the business, rather than overly optimistic estimates.
@Syrek24 Wasn't it only a few days ago I asked you to keep insults in your head?
Please try and communicate in a more pleasant manner. We aim for inclusiveness here and it's not your job to try and make other users feel unwanted.
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