@MontyCircus Those are really interesting metrics, thanks for sharing.
I wonder if this year the GOTY Awards might loosen the grip on 'minimum' requirements, considering there is a much smaller pool of 'eligible' output for nomination?
Remainder of 2024 still quite sparse... if I had to bet money, I have a feeling that AstroBot might take the win. Certainly will get a nomination, alongside Dragon Age: The Veilguard and the new Zelda also I'd reckon.
@MontyCircus Interesting metric. Of course the minimums for a nominee is far less so I assume they will toss in one of the indies on the list and it will lose 😆
Having one of the 3 you listed or a game which isn't out yet win seems pretty likely. In terms of hype level, we are more like 2021 than 2023 — a year where the winner barely passed your two metrics.
@CJD87 It will be interesting to see how the late-year games do. The only time the Game Awards had a GotY released past August was 2014, the first year of the Game Awards.
@FishyS that’s really interesting, thanks! I know these awards are arbitrary, but I genuinely look forward to the show each year…. Geoff ain’t perfect, but I think he actually does a fairly good job at delivering a serviceable ceremony that is relatively entertaining.
In regards to the metric you shared, I do believe GoW: Ragnarok would have potentially been a second case whereby a late-year game clinched the title award… had it not been up against Elden Ring!
I’d be keen to know how many ‘early year releases’ have won also, and if potentially releasing ‘too early’ in a year can lead to be long forgotten? Hi-Fi Rush is an example of this, January(?) release on XB and perhaps then overshadowed due to dropping too early. I don’t think it was winning material, but would have been solid enough as a nomination I believe.
What would you bet on winning, if you had a large sum of cash to put down??
I’d be keen to know how many ‘early year releases’ have won also
Some of these metrics are a little silly since there have only been 10 game awards, but...
Winners by month of release:
Jan
Feb - 1
Mar - 3
Apr - 1
May - 2
Jun - 1
Jul
Aug - 1
Sep
Oct
Nov - 1
Dec
Of the 3 games which passed MontyCircus's metacritic metric, Tekken 8 and Like a Dragon were January games. FF7 rebirth was Feb 29 which would have been March if it wasn't a leap year 😆
As a random side comment the 'at least 45 reviewer scores' metric isn't quite true. The less well known games which won GotY all had some reviews after they were nominated or after they won. If you correct for that Lorelei and the Laser Eyes (May) and possibly also Balatro (Feb) and Animal Well (May) qualifies under the MontyCircus metric.
As a random side comment the 'at least 45 reviewer scores' metric isn't quite true. The less well known games which won GotY all had some reviews after they were nominated or after they won.
I was wondering about that as well. But here are the # of MetaCritic reviews on the most-reviewed platform for each The Game Awards winner:
2014 = 45 (Dragon Age: Inquisition)
2015 = 80 (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt)
2016 = 68 (Overwatch)
2017 = 117 (The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild)
2018 = 131 (God of War)
2019 = 88 (Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice)
2020 = 132 (The Last of Us Part II)
2021 = 50 (It Takes Two)
2022 = 93 (Elden Ring)
2023 = 119 (Baldur's Gate 3)
The "45 ratings minimum" is based on the low, which is the earliest of the 10 years studied.
The only other year near that number is 2021's "It Takes Two", which could be looked at as an anomaly.
Throw out those 2 years, and in the other 8 years the lowest # of ratings for a winner is 68.
It seems that the big games get more and more reviews each year (I have not studied this but it seems right), so the "minimum" expected of the Game of the Year would increase over time (but "It Takes Two" would be the exception to the trend).
What would you bet on winning, if you had a large sum of cash to put down??
I would go with one of the "biggest" games, and ignore the "It Takes Two"-esque indies. Though I haven't picked up on really any big hype about any games this year, I would for the moment go with one of the 3 I posted already:
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth Tekken 8 Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
And I honestly have no idea at all which would be the favourite of the 3. Maybe Final Fantasy just because 10% of the award points (I think?) are based on Internet voting, and that is the most popular brand, but that's just a stab in the dark.
I'm not sure why people think Shadow of the Erdtree is ineligible, given how DLC has been nominated for other categories several times and even won a couple of times. It's not like we're talking horse armor here; there's easily enough content to compare with the must substantial AAA games of the year.
It's never been nominated for GOTY before, but we've never had a situation where it's been the best reviewed release of the year by some margin, plus the second place by Metascore is a remake, and the third an indie game, and neither of those have ever won GOTY either.
Unless a new contender appears between now and November, I've a feeling that something unprecedented will have to happen.
@Matt_Barber Anything can happen, but I suspect we will instead be closer to a 2021 situation. 2021 had the top 3 metacritic scores be a visual novel, a racing game, and DLC (3 categories which often seem to have a 'cant be GotY' reaction) , none of which were nominated for GotY and instead It Takes 2 won and nominees were chosen from fairly far down the list.
Considering remakes and indies have been nominated for GotY before, indies have arguably won (The Game Awards committee argued about this a lot last year), and FF7 rebirth is much more than a remake (the whole trilogy will likely be 5 times as long as the original game), it would be much less precedented for DLC to win than the other categories.
I think the general feeling is that DLC can clearly be nominated for categories like art direction but that GotY should be an actual complete game. However the Game Awards rules are a bit vague and call out live service games but not DLC. So... unclear if there are rules for it or not.
Maybe Zelda will win and make this all a moot point 😆
I didn´t even remember what games were released this year. Had to check bills to see what I have bought and then I had to check some internet list of what was released. So yeah... I cannot vote for best game of 2024 yet as there seems to be absolutely nothing memorable for now.
If I had to, I would vote for Horizon Forbidden West (PC) but it would be a blind vote. First game was great, I have bought the second one but didn´t feel like playing it yet.
I also predict Dragon Age 4 to be terrible. I mean DA 3 was the worst entry in the series, every game BioWare releases lately just shows that its a shadow of former itself. And production of DA 4 (they have even thrown away like 2 years of lore team work during that period) and the latest trailer and videos... I have already decided against buying it. Its a shame, because Dragon Age Origins was the best BioWare game and one of the best RPGs of all time.
We shall see about Echoes of Wisdom, looking forward to it.
"94" on MetaCritic, with 114 reviews. Making it the highest-rated non-DLC game of the year.
From "TheGamer":
"You tend to start writing lines in your head when compiling a review, and one that stuck with me early was to call Astro Bot 'the best platformer since Super Mario Odyssey'. Then I played a little more and started to think 'maybe it's better'."
From "Twinfinite":
"It truly does sit alongside the best platformers of all time."
Review after review to the effect of: "It out-Marios Mario!"
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Topic: Game of the Year: 2024
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