@MontyCircus Interesting metric. Of course the minimums for a nominee is far less so I assume they will toss in one of the indies on the list and it will lose 😆
Having one of the 3 you listed or a game which isn't out yet win seems pretty likely. In terms of hype level, we are more like 2021 than 2023 — a year where the winner barely passed your two metrics.
@CJD87 It will be interesting to see how the late-year games do. The only time the Game Awards had a GotY released past August was 2014, the first year of the Game Awards.
@FishyS that’s really interesting, thanks! I know these awards are arbitrary, but I genuinely look forward to the show each year…. Geoff ain’t perfect, but I think he actually does a fairly good job at delivering a serviceable ceremony that is relatively entertaining.
In regards to the metric you shared, I do believe GoW: Ragnarok would have potentially been a second case whereby a late-year game clinched the title award… had it not been up against Elden Ring!
I’d be keen to know how many ‘early year releases’ have won also, and if potentially releasing ‘too early’ in a year can lead to be long forgotten? Hi-Fi Rush is an example of this, January(?) release on XB and perhaps then overshadowed due to dropping too early. I don’t think it was winning material, but would have been solid enough as a nomination I believe.
What would you bet on winning, if you had a large sum of cash to put down??
I’d be keen to know how many ‘early year releases’ have won also
Some of these metrics are a little silly since there have only been 10 game awards, but...
Winners by month of release:
Jan
Feb - 1
Mar - 3
Apr - 1
May - 2
Jun - 1
Jul
Aug - 1
Sep
Oct
Nov - 1
Dec
Of the 3 games which passed MontyCircus's metacritic metric, Tekken 8 and Like a Dragon were January games. FF7 rebirth was Feb 29 which would have been March if it wasn't a leap year 😆
As a random side comment the 'at least 45 reviewer scores' metric isn't quite true. The less well known games which won GotY all had some reviews after they were nominated or after they won. If you correct for that Lorelei and the Laser Eyes (May) and possibly also Balatro (Feb) and Animal Well (May) qualifies under the MontyCircus metric.
As a random side comment the 'at least 45 reviewer scores' metric isn't quite true. The less well known games which won GotY all had some reviews after they were nominated or after they won.
I was wondering about that as well. But here are the # of MetaCritic reviews on the most-reviewed platform for each The Game Awards winner:
2014 = 45 (Dragon Age: Inquisition)
2015 = 80 (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt)
2016 = 68 (Overwatch)
2017 = 117 (The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild)
2018 = 131 (God of War)
2019 = 88 (Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice)
2020 = 132 (The Last of Us Part II)
2021 = 50 (It Takes Two)
2022 = 93 (Elden Ring)
2023 = 119 (Baldur's Gate 3)
The "45 ratings minimum" is based on the low, which is the earliest of the 10 years studied.
The only other year near that number is 2021's "It Takes Two", which could be looked at as an anomaly.
Throw out those 2 years, and in the other 8 years the lowest # of ratings for a winner is 68.
It seems that the big games get more and more reviews each year (I have not studied this but it seems right), so the "minimum" expected of the Game of the Year would increase over time (but "It Takes Two" would be the exception to the trend).
What would you bet on winning, if you had a large sum of cash to put down??
I would go with one of the "biggest" games, and ignore the "It Takes Two"-esque indies. Though I haven't picked up on really any big hype about any games this year, I would for the moment go with one of the 3 I posted already:
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth Tekken 8 Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
And I honestly have no idea at all which would be the favourite of the 3. Maybe Final Fantasy just because 10% of the award points (I think?) are based on Internet voting, and that is the most popular brand, but that's just a stab in the dark.
I'm not sure why people think Shadow of the Erdtree is ineligible, given how DLC has been nominated for other categories several times and even won a couple of times. It's not like we're talking horse armor here; there's easily enough content to compare with the must substantial AAA games of the year.
It's never been nominated for GOTY before, but we've never had a situation where it's been the best reviewed release of the year by some margin, plus the second place by Metascore is a remake, and the third an indie game, and neither of those have ever won GOTY either.
Unless a new contender appears between now and November, I've a feeling that something unprecedented will have to happen.
@Matt_Barber Anything can happen, but I suspect we will instead be closer to a 2021 situation. 2021 had the top 3 metacritic scores be a visual novel, a racing game, and DLC (3 categories which often seem to have a 'cant be GotY' reaction) , none of which were nominated for GotY and instead It Takes 2 won and nominees were chosen from fairly far down the list.
Considering remakes and indies have been nominated for GotY before, indies have arguably won (The Game Awards committee argued about this a lot last year), and FF7 rebirth is much more than a remake (the whole trilogy will likely be 5 times as long as the original game), it would be much less precedented for DLC to win than the other categories.
I think the general feeling is that DLC can clearly be nominated for categories like art direction but that GotY should be an actual complete game. However the Game Awards rules are a bit vague and call out live service games but not DLC. So... unclear if there are rules for it or not.
Maybe Zelda will win and make this all a moot point 😆
I didn´t even remember what games were released this year. Had to check bills to see what I have bought and then I had to check some internet list of what was released. So yeah... I cannot vote for best game of 2024 yet as there seems to be absolutely nothing memorable for now.
If I had to, I would vote for Horizon Forbidden West (PC) but it would be a blind vote. First game was great, I have bought the second one but didn´t feel like playing it yet.
I also predict Dragon Age 4 to be terrible. I mean DA 3 was the worst entry in the series, every game BioWare releases lately just shows that its a shadow of former itself. And production of DA 4 (they have even thrown away like 2 years of lore team work during that period) and the latest trailer and videos... I have already decided against buying it. Its a shame, because Dragon Age Origins was the best BioWare game and one of the best RPGs of all time.
We shall see about Echoes of Wisdom, looking forward to it.
"94" on MetaCritic, with 114 reviews. Making it the highest-rated non-DLC game of the year.
From "TheGamer":
"You tend to start writing lines in your head when compiling a review, and one that stuck with me early was to call Astro Bot 'the best platformer since Super Mario Odyssey'. Then I played a little more and started to think 'maybe it's better'."
From "Twinfinite":
"It truly does sit alongside the best platformers of all time."
Review after review to the effect of: "It out-Marios Mario!"
i know all heads currently are turned to astro bot for the big award…however will echoes have a good chance? i think i will DEFINITELY be nominated, and even though the reviews were worse, from what i have heard astro bot didnt do anything new (i might be wrong here :3, having never played it), i think echoes did since it really succeeds in every area except its technical issues imo. anyways id be curious to hear your thoughts…does Princess Zelda’s first game have a chance at winning big?
not as active as i used to be :(
just finsihed earthbound!
@OctolingKing13 Given the review scores (good but not quite high enough), I don't think Zelda has any real chance to win GotY. I do think there are a few categories it could easily be nominated in — art direction, music , family game, maybe action adventure which is sort of the traditional Zelda category. I will be disappointed if it doesn't get nominated for a couple categories but all the categories it could be nominated for have some serious competition this year so I'm not sure what the chances are of Zelda winning anything. It definitely deserves to win something; too bad there isn't a prize for combination of great gameplay and creativity.
I am not certain what the game of the year for 2024 will be but I bet that peach showtime and echoes Of Wisdom will probably be there .also thousand year door.
@Atomic77@FawfulsFury Although Peach Showtime was very enjoyable the reviews for it weren't that great (74 on metacritic) so I doubt it will appear in the game awards besides maybe as a nomination for best family game. For GotY I think either TTYD or Zelda has a chance to be nominated but I doubt either would win. Astrobot and Final Fantasy seem like guaranteed nominations.
@FishyS so far i would honestly expect astro bot to come out on top. looking back at past nominees nintendo has usually one nominee for goty on average. im honestly curious to see how brothership does, but if i had to guess eow or ttyd will be a nom :3
man, this really shows what a quiet year it has been for the gaming world. 2025s gonna be packed tho…
not as active as i used to be :(
just finsihed earthbound!
The games I've personally enjoyed a ton this year, excluding DLCs (Elden Ring) or Early Access (Hades 2) would be - Balatro, Tekken 8 and Nine Sols
Nine Sols would probably be my personal GOTY, although I'd really like to emphasise how much I enjoyed Balatro. Tekken 8 was just sublime as well.
In terms of who I'd like to see win - it would be great if something like Astro-Bot, or even Space Marine, got the award.... as I feel this would send a solid message to the industry, being that appetite still exists for just really strong single-player games.
FF7 Rebirth was "OK" but very much over-hyped for my liking. Echoes of Wisdom, playing at the moment, is a serviceable entry in the Zelda franchise... but not GOTY material IMO.
I haven’t played Zelda or Astrobot yet, but currently Animal Well is my GOTY.
Special shout-out to Persona 3 Reload (fantastic, but also a faithful remake of a game I have already played), and Lorelei and The Laser Eyes (perhaps the most underrated game this year).
The best game I've played this year is probably Princess Peach: Showtime, which I know is a wild take to have. I just found it absolutely delightful from start to finish, and I played it to completion out of respect for Etsunobu Ebisu. Good-Feel is one of my favorite developers and any year they release a major game is a good year in my book.
I don't think Shadow of the Erdtree counts, but if it did, that would be my actual pick. What a game, they don't make them like that too often
“Why do you speak of certain reversals—machinery connected wrong, for instance, as being ‘ass backwards’? I can’t understand that. Ass usually is backwards, right? You ought to be saying ‘ass forwards,’ if backwards is what you mean."
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Topic: Game of the Year: 2024
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