Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa has revealed that the company is still confident in reaching its 100 million Switch software sales target for the financial year, with holiday season sales progressing well.
Sales of Switch software reached 42.13 million during the period between April and September this year, with games like Super Mario Party, Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! and Let's Go, Eevee!, and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate releasing slightly afterwards. With top games such as these greatly boosting that number - Smash has already sold 5 million copies worldwide on its own - the Japanese gaming giant looks set to reach its lofty goals when the end of the financial year comes around in March.
The news comes from an article in Japanese daily newspaper, Kyoto Shimbun, where Furukawa also briefly touched upon Nintendo's 20 million Switch console sales target for the same time period. In his comments, Furukawa reiterated the fact that the 20 million target was purposefully challenging - perhaps hinting that it might be looking slightly out of reach - before noting that the company will continue to release popular titles on the console going forward.
Do you believe Nintendo can reach those targets? How do you expect the next few months to go in terms of sales? Let us know in the comments.
[source kyoto-np.co.jp, via nintendoeverything.com]
Comments 123
They also say that they expect Switch to reach Wii hardware sales levels which is foolish if you ask me. It won't even reach 3DS.
@BlueOcean reference please. I can’t recall they ever said that nor do i think they did
@BlueOcean Nintendo would need to have some serious back to back hits in order to maintain momentum, as well as work with developers to ensure more third party titles arrive AND on time.
With Sony and Microsoft expected to announce new consoles soon, it will be interesting to see what impact it will have on Switch sales.
@Friendly They said that Switch hardware sales would reach 100 million and was reported by Nintendo Life back in the day.
@BlueOcean
I believe Nintendo Switch can surpass Wii sales.
I believe in Nintendo.
Just wait and see.
@TheMadPolarBear
Pokemon 2019 is a thing.
@BlueOcean wii or wii u?
@TheMadPolarBear True, I am also wondering if they are going to redesign the Switch like they have done with every portable console ever and how that would impact sales. Even if they do, if the specs are not upgraded it's going to have an even harder time competing against next-gen consoles. I am not talking just about competing as a system, at the end of the day Switch is an "hybrid" console, but competing at a software level and third-party support.
@Friendly Wii.
@nukatha Sure, but the rest of 2019? There’s still a lot of unknowns, such as MP4’s release date. That said, I also don’t think MP4 and Yoshi are console sellers like Mario, Zelda and Pokemon.
That’s not a dig at Nintendo, the games will sell well as Kirby Star Allies did but it’s not going to generate Smash, Pokemon, BOTW or Odyssey levels of Switch hardware momentum.
However, if they can get the games released over the course of 2019 rather than leaving everything till the holidays, it could help maintain momentum until the holidays, where Pokemon will round the year off nicely.
Regardless of this, Sony and Microsoft’s new hardware will also cause some consumers to hold off on purchasing hardware in order to get more information about the new units, which may have an impact on Switch sales. To compensate, Nintendo should discuss a Switch revision of some sort, not necessarily a ‘new’ Nintendo Switch, but something to generate interest in the hardware whilst Sony and Microsoft are announcing theirs.
@Friendly Since @BlueOcean won't post it, here's the link:
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-05-02-nintendo-now-believes-switch-can-reach-wii-sales-levels
@BlueOcean Nintendo did say they expect the Switch to be in every household, so that would be more than Wii. Sinçe there are over 7 billion people in the world, then that would be around 2 billion Switches. 😂
@link3710 Thank you very much!
@BlueOcean A bunch of analysts said it would go well over 100m but I don't recall Nintendo ever saying as much.
@Spoony_Tech Tatsumi Kimishima said it, websites reported it.
@MongolRaider Actually, Nintendo suggested every family member to have their own Switch.
https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2017/11/nintendo_wants_everyone_in_your_house_to_have_their_own_switch
@BlueOcean A revision even without a spec boost could still help to generate interest in the Switch’s hardware, which will be important so as to prevent the Switch from being overshadowed by Sony and Microsoft’s announcements.
However, even with a spec boost to try and ‘close the gap’ a little, developers will still have to develop for the lowest common denominator like they do with Xbox One and the X, as well as the PS4 and the Pro. This in itself presents an issue, do Nintendo start to do ‘new’ Nintendo Switch games only as they have done with some 3DS titles? That’s assuming as you imply, that 3rd party titles can even run on base Switch hardware to begin with.
They could increase the clock speeds of current Switch hardware if they implement an improved cooling solution but then this will affect battery life and can’t help the 20+ million Switch owners already.
It’s certainly going to be interesting to see what the big N does going forward.
Fitness Boxing will help Nintendo achieved that 100 million goal.
@NewAdvent I don't know if Smash Bros. will surpass Mario Kart, the only time that it occurred was on GameCube.
I found this, it's quite interesting:
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Software_tie_ratio
According to this Switch has a software tie ratio of 3.88 as opposed to Wii U's 7.52. Yes, there are more Switch consoles than Wii U consoles but I expected the Switch number to be much higher now that Nintendo doesn't support a home console and a portable console at the same time. Wii U had 3DS's glory all along.
It won't be easy mind you but I do think that they will make the 20 mill.
@BlueOcean Why let the truth get in the way of a good story?
Smash works it's magic!
Pokemon is a very interesting thing to discuss. Traditionally, Pokemon is on hand-held consoles and is the best-selling (or almost) game(s) on every system. Now it's on Switch but it seems that it's not selling as much. Is it because it's not a traditional Pokémon game or is it because Pokémon fans are playing on mobile phones and 3DS? In my opinion it's the latter but what do you guys think?
@MongolRaider Yeah.
They went make 20, I expect about 16
@TheMadPolarBear Interesting point. Personally, I think that Switch needs a revision and it will boost sales even if the specs are the same. As you say, if Nintendo boosts the hardware somehow, will it mean a thing? How will that affect original Switch userbase? How will it attract third parties developing Xbox Two and PS5 games? Yes, current Switch games would run better so it would be like an X/Pro scenario.
Not that different to what they mentioned at the last sales briefing. Considering Smash Bros sold over 5 million copies worldwide in 3 days, and as of September 2018, they were at 40-45% of their 100 million target, I think it's entirely within reach to sell another 40-50 million units of software by the end of March 2019, and hit or surpass that 100 million target. Great to hear the continuous train of sales records being broken and Nintendo on their way to achieving their sales goals for this financial year.
I’m just a consumer that buys things and my opinion is a million bajillion things will be sold. My opinion is both irrefutable and irrelevant!
Another interesting thing to note is that every top-selling Switch game is first/second-party except Mario+Rabbids that, well, is a Mario game. The first third-party game is FIFA18 but it's #14 and sales are 1.08 million. The best-selling Switch game is Super Mario Odyssey with 9.2 million.
@NewAdvent, Yes, Switch is relatively new, you are right, that number will increase, but I expected it to be higher considering the fact that Nintendo merged the home and portable divisions. Actually, many people here have over 10 Switch games, but that's not representative according to that.
Platform holders tend to use their biggest hardware number as a benchmark early on. If they say they don’t expect to hit that, it’ll be read as a lack of confidence.
When I interviewed PlayStation at the start of PS4, House repeatedly said that they believe it would beat PS2. The likelihood of that happening is slim. But the truth is, it doesn’t matter. Because really, with digital extras, subs and microtransactions, they make more money per customer than they ever did.
It’s the same with Switch. Even if they don’t get to the Wii’s 100 million and is more in line with 3DS and around 80 million, if they can make more money per customer through merchandise, digital add ons, online subs, digital game sales over physical... the bottom line would be far healthier than it ever was during the Wii era.
We obsess over the install base, but the reality is it’s engagement that really is important to platform holders. Wii had 100m customers. How many of them played the console all the time? How many of them bought more than two games?
As for the argument over how PS5/XB2 will impact Switch... I don’t believe it’s a big issue. For starters, they’re still 2 years away. Also... I don’t think people are picking a Switch instead of a PlayStation or Xbox. Some people, sure. But I feel Switch is just a different... thing. Switch is selling really well right now, but so are PS4 and Xbox One. Switch isn’t cannibalising their figures.
If Switch gets to 40m by the end of the next FY... or close to it. They’ll already be well over half-way to 3DS numbers in 2 years. And there’s still no price cut.
100 million is a nice round estimate, same for 20 million. Even if they don't make those numbers sane people will see them for what they are, big round whole number estimates.
Do people expect them to to estimate 94.375 million software sales and 19.6 million console sales? Those are the numbers worth reporting after the fact, but guesstimates work best as nice big round whole numbers. So long as they aren't off by too much it will be fine.
Besides the 3 games this holiday NEWER NSMBU will sell a few million in January and I'd guess Yoshi in early March for another 1.5m before their fiscal year ends.
As for Switch selling 100m Wii numbers, it's doable. New Switch, Switch Portable, Switch Home, Switch Mini. Once it replaces their handheld 3DS and gets a lower priced model on the market that will help. Once PS5 and Xbox 2 launch Switch will be the defacto handheld, even more than it is now. 3DS is how old now, 8 years? I bet they sold a bunch of those $79 2DS this holiday, good kids gift. Switch has a long way to go before it hits $79.
Pretty much the only thing that will keep Switch from selling 100m is Nintendo releases Switch 2 rather than New Switch in a few years. If they can keep the "Switch Family" around long enough before the official next gen Switch 100m should be their goal, it's a combination of both their home and handheld consoles. Wii U and 3DS totaled about 85m and Wii U was an abject failure. Just gotta do better than that.
@Dingo Wii has the second highest software attract rate for a Nintendo console with 9.1 pieces of software per user. (NGC sold 9.6 pieces of software per user)
Can we just take a moment to appreciate what a turnaround selling 100 million games in a year would be? The Wii U only sold a little over 100 million games in its entire lifetime, and the 3DS with over 70 million users and 7 years on the market hasn't hit 400 million yet.
@Mrtoad people tend to forget this. The Wii was very far from being a "Wii Sports then gathers dust" machine.
@rjejr "Wii U and 3DS totaled about 85m and Wii U was an abject failure."
I hear people say this frequently, but the Switch wouldn't have to sell 85 million to be successful necessarily. There would of course be some overlap between those 3DS and Wii U owners, so the combined userbase might be closer to 75-80 million. Plus, Switch games probably make considerably more money than 3DS games, so I would imagine that the Switch would be considered a roaring success if it reached 70 million, especially if it keeps selling large software numbers. Of course, it would be even better if the Switch sold even more
EDIT: I totally agree with the rest of your post btw!
Given current momentum that "Wii like sales" thing doesn't seem impossible if you factor in the inevitability of a cheaper, less featureful portable SKU that will be more adopted by kids. Wii was a one time phenomenon, but sales also fell off a cliff in a few years. If Switch has extended life as a budget console like Switch and GameBoy, it's doable. Remember those Wii figures include Wii Mini, the cutrate $99 or less console that sold during the WiiU's life.
I think the Switch will easily hit 100m software units this year. They were at over 40m at the end of Q2 and Pokemon + Smash alone will probably add 25m.
@BlueOcean Remember when Hulk Hogan slammed that 5,000 lb giant? That was spectacular.
Lol, jk ya... I remember reading that article a while back that said they expect Wii like numbers. I still stand by my prediction of about 74m.
The hardware target is still up in the air but possible.
Software target is absolutely in the bag. They did 42 Million in the first two Quarters largely on evergreens, spinoffs and ports.
Holiday boost + various bundles(Odyssey, Kart, Rabbids, Tennis, Smash etc. depending on region and such) + Pokémon + Record breaking MP sales + Record Breaking smash sales + Absurdly High attach rate evergreens...they are gonna sell more than the first two quarters combined
Honestly I think they will hit that 100 million by the end of Q3 or be so close they would effortlessly pass the goal before January ends.
Smash, Pokémon and Party are going to do over 20 Million combined alone. Smash did 5 Million in three days. Pokémon did 3 Million in a week and Super Mario Party did 1.5 Million in October(it’s done over 1.4 Million in NA alone now and ~600K at retail in japan)
So yeah. Smash will pass 10 Million. Pokémon will probably be towards the upper middle range of 5-10 Million. And Super Mario Party will do 4 Million+
@BlueOcean Yeah, yeah. We will subsitute inside market analyst from Nintendo headquarters with you. Is € 5.000 as a monthly saliary good enough for you to sign a contract?
@Dringo I agree. I wonder how many Switch users are subscribed to Nintendo Online but it's absolutely true that the big money this generation is in the digital market, subscriptions and also physical sales. However, @Mrtoad is right, the software tie ratio for Wii is 9.02 and that is extremely high so they made a lot of money with Wii anyway. Switch's is just 3.88 this far.
@Cosats Nintendo said it, the fact that websites write reports doesn't change the original fact. If you ignore things that doesn't mean that the things that you ignore did not happen.
It'll be interesting to see what releases we get over the next few years in order for Nintendo to keep up this momentum.
Next year (I think all are confirmed for 2019) we are getting:
NSMBU
Yoshi
Fire Emblem
Luigi's Mansion 3
Animal Crossing
Bayonetta 3
Mainline Pokemon
There's some potentially very big hitters in there with AC, Pokemon and Fire Emblem.
Metroid is still somewhat of a mystery but then where do Nintendo go once all of the big hitters are on the console?
Donkey Kong?
New Zelda?
New Mario Kart?
Odyssey 2?
F-Zero?
There's potentially a very interesting 2019/20 coming up.
That’s great. More games are coming
That 33% discount on Mom Hid my Game will get them over the line, especially with Nintendolife reporting on it.
New Super Mario Bros U is going to be a big seller in January. If Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can do 10 million, NSMBU can do at least half that. I reckon they'll release Daemon X Machina and Yoshi by the end of the financial year.
@NewAdvent I think that Vgchartz track digital sales. Anyway, Switch's number is still significantly lower than PS4 or Xbox One and apparently digital sales are more important on those consoles. It's right that the software tie ratio is lower on handheld consoles but Switch is a "hybrid" console that people use 50/50% according to Nintendo. This fervent Nintendo bubble is a whole different thing though. It will be interesting to see how these figures evolve.
@MongolRaider Yeah I am happy to see that I am not the only one that remember things.
My prediction is similar, I don't think that the Switch as we know it today and not counting its successor will surpass 3DS and obviously won't reach Wii's hardware, software tie ratio and software sales.
@Pikachupwnage Their software target is not impossible but you have to bear in mind that Switch users are early adopters. Yes, there are ever-green titles, now more than ever thanks to digital distribution but the record-breaking number are during the first weeks. Actually, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate went to #1 to #4 in the UK charts in just one week!!
@Morph I think that the big numbers that Super Mario Odyssey, Mario Kart 8 and Breath of the Wild have achieved will only be reached by Super Smash Bros. Ultimate and Pokémon and I am starting to doubt that the majority of the Pokémon userbase is on Switch anyway. Typically, the best-selling games are Super Mario, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. and Pokémon on handhelds. Other games won't reach those levels, even if I may be more interested in them: Metroid Prime 4, Luigi's Mansion 3 or a hypothetical Wave Race or F-Zero.
@OorWullie Yeah, Nintendo's Game Awards presence was too tame for unannounced games to take the January - March slots outside of maybe Labo Toy-Con 04 being the leftovers from the initial January 2018 reveal.
@Grumblevolcano That is probably because Nintendo also predicted outstanding success for Labo and it has been basically a failure.
@BlueOcean lets just hope we're wrong. At the time I made that prediction, I wasn't counting on MUA3 being exclusive to the Switch, or it even being out at all. That is a wild card, and could potentially sell millions of the Switch by itself. Going by some anecdotes on youtube, I've seen some Microsoft and Sony only fans say "they now have to buy a Switch." I've also seen some haters say they will never buy a Switch, no matter what. Of course anything can happen.
I’ll be shocked if Nintendo doesn’t hit their 20 million goal for hardware. Smash is doing very well and may carry them to that goal.
Next year will likely be even better with Animal Crossing and Pokémon.
@BlueOcean
I'm not so sure, but Pokemon and Animal Crossing will certain prove the point either way. Of the top 10 biggest selling 3ds games, we've already got MK, Smash, 3d Mario with 2d Mario on the way. The two remaining really huge franchises are Pokemon and Animal Crossing.
It reads the same for ds and gba as well really, discounting brain training and nintendogs Pokemon and AC are still the next go to 'handheld' games. I think both will prove to be massive hits personally.
@MongolRaider Yeah, anything can happen. I did not know that MUA3 was so important but the previous entries did not sell huge numbers.
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/games.php?name=marvel+ultimate+alliance
@BlueOcean,
You or anybody else in the core internet posting forum minorities have little idea to what the wider mass market wants.
The Switch is well on target to reach the Wii's sales.
@TheMadPolarBear,
I doubt the new consoles from Microsoft and Sony will have much impact on the market Nintendo are aiming at.
@Morph Yeah, a traditional Pokémon and Animal Crossing will be very interesting to follow. Animal Crossing was a huge success on 3DS. Pokémon always is. Personally, my favourite Nintendo franchises are not always the best-selling ones. Some are, like Zelda, Mario or Mario Kart, but some are not, like Metroid, Wave Race or F-Zero.
@johnvboy We are just discussing things. Enlighten us with your godly wisdom, Master. We need to hear your commands.
@BlueOcean
But how fast did Nintendo had to cut the price for the 3DS? And the Switch is selling strong and didn't have a price cut yet. So I say, it's absolutely plausible that the Switch can at least top 3DS sales.
@Friendly wow not very friendly on your first post might need a better outlook in life there.
@TheMadPolarBear wow this is a fanboy here trying to say something that hasn't happened no ps5 or xbox X. Because current consoles are being left behind. Koolaid drinking doesn't help here.
@johnvboy "I doubt the new consoles from Microsoft and Sony will have much impact on the market Nintendo are aiming at."
Couldn't have said it better. Also they aren't really upgrading anything other than the Price$$$ you will be paying.
@MrBlacky "But how fast did Nintendo had to cut the price for the 3DS? And the Switch is selling strong and didn't have a price cut yet. So I say, it's absolutely plausible that the Switch can at least top 3DS sales."
What price if you didn't look closer 3DS XL and New 3DS XL are different hardware so that is the price difference - your trying to have the koolaid and cake and that is where you got pie in your face.
I think Nintendo should release a switch dock that has extra power in it (cpu, RAM, graphic cards.... etc) to boost a docked switch so it will be able to handle the highest lvl of games, even if for some games will run good only while Docked mode
@MrBlacky Hopefully it will surpass 3DS hardware sales. I don't think that it's likely with the present hardware and price though.
Wow, if Nintendo cut the price of Switch by a third like they did with 3DS then EVERY gamer would buy it, I think.
@Tantani Some Switch games have serious performance issues, a boosted Switch could fix that and that would be interesting to see whether the dock or the console are boosted. It wouldn't reach Xbox/PS levels, especially when the new consoles are out around 2020, but Switch games would benefit from it.
@link3710 @blueocean ah, tnx for the link. I have missed that one back in the day.
Still though, couple of remarks on the article:
1) the article is very old, may of last year, and posted at a moment that they needed all the positiveness they could muster to gain momentum
2) nintendo states that they could, not a prediction that they will reach wii lifetime sales. Big difference
So far, the switch is selling massively for the pricetag it holds. In my opinion, it’s the most complete console one could own, since it is so versatile. So it has a larger attraction rate than any other console currently on the market. Also, they can still decrease the price of the switch later on. I’m very curious how much sales will occur when Nintendo decides to drop the pricetag by 50-75 euro/dollar, sales will massively increase. So I’m very positive that they can match wii’s lifetime sales
With that said, this article also focusses on software sales, and from a personal perspective, i have never bought this many games for one system ever, including the pc. Oh, the euros spent on my switch within 1,5 year... I’m afraid i have to quit my job now though, since there’s just not enough time to play all of the games I have in my backlog first world problems...
@SwitchForce just a bit direct, no unfriendlyness intended
@BlueOcean even some games on the xbox and ps4 had issue at 4k. So the problem isn't just isolated to the Switch.
@Tantani that most likely will be in the form of Switch 2.0HD probably in 5 year time frame that will have more RAM, GPU and Storage to address upgraded performance. I rather not have it on the Dock but in the Switch instead. The Dock should be a output model only with charging but shouldn't be the where the Tech should go.
@Friendly "Nintendo states that they could, not a prediction that they will reach Wii lifetime sales. Big difference"
Excuse me but that does not make any sense. Every thing that Nintendo says about the future is a prediction and so they "could", nobody "can" know what will happen for sure. That is obvious.
Thank goodness the numbers are good...otherwise I wouldn't be able to enjoy the console or any of its games.
@BlueOcean,
I liked your initial comment,and your views are not incorrect,they are just viewed from a certain point of view,I am in the same boat as you fella,I own a Switch and also a Xbox One so I tend to also think things from a core point of view.
But based on this the Wii and DS would not have been a success,and hell when I picked my Wii U up o launch day with call of duty I thought Nintendo were on to a winner.
But sometimes the masses buy things for reasons the core gamers can't just see,you should have seen the Switch thread on Neogaf where they were discussing if the Switch would be a success,and of course with it's low power and $299 price point not many did...you can just never tell in this game.
@SwitchForce
"What price if you didn't look closer 3DS XL and New 3DS XL are different hardware so that is the price difference - your trying to have the koolaid and cake and that is where you got pie in your face."
I have trouble following you.🤔 You DO know, the 3DS got a pricecut not so ong after it's launch? Does ambassador program ring any bell?
@SwitchForce What I mean is that even if they boost Switch hardware it could not reach Xbox One X/successor or PS4 Pro/successor's levels, because Switch is portable (hybrid?) and based on mobile technology. On the brighter side, it would boost all the games that have performance issues on Switch.
We Going into another 3 months of budget games and old ports on Switch (every other platform has a big AAA game a month).
No idea what they selling in big numbers Jan/March outside Nintendo Evergreens (like always)
@MrBlacky you didn't notice there were two different 3DS model but then again that's for you to figure out.
@SwitchForce I generally agree
But as a portable, they can’t go crazy with the power in portable mode because the battery will become super limited
With the dock they can do whatever, the “switch 2” or whatever they will call it should be stronger than the switch, but I do believe that if they want to compete with the next gen and to call to the new strong 3rd party titles, they would need to let some of the games be docked only if needed
I think they need to make both the console and the dock strong so we will be able to play even the heaviest titles on the switch, with most of the games being also portable
This is the obvious next step to insure the switch could support more 3rd party games for years to come
@BlueOcean
Switch sales was outpacing 3DS prior to the holidays, and with recent reports of some absolutely staggering hardware sales figures thanks to the success of Pokemon and Smash Bros, the chances of Switch sales not extending its lead over 3DS sales is virtually nonexistent.
The Switch will get much closer to Wii hardware sales than many of you expect. It will surpass the Wii if Nintendo actually lowers the price by next holiday and/or releases hardware revisions.
@SwitchForce
What are you talking about?! When Nintendo did cut the price for the 3DS, there was only one model on the market. I know it, because I bought it (and then got a bunch of GBA games for free).
@johnvboy No problem! Thanks for your reply. I have Xbox One too (X) and a lot of consoles this generation (almost all of them). I could say that I'm a cool gamer because of that but if I am honest next generation I won't get as many consoles LOL. So I won't be that cool anymore. Probably, I will get just two, the Xbox One X's successor and Switch's successor.
I have to admit that having different consoles gives you an expanded vision of gaming that I wish more people would have because it would make the gaming world less aggressive (as you have noticed on Neogaf or even here).
Because of this, I don't see Nintendo in isolation, which can be read sometimes as I am too critical by the most fervent fans but on the contrary, I just care about them and discuss the good and bad things that they do. They are not perfect and they have made so many mistakes recently. Honestly, I think they did better with SNES, Nintendo 64, GameCube and the handheld consoles, but that doesn't mean that I think that everything is gloomy since Wii, just more of a mixed bag too often.
@BlueOcean I didn't see any numbers on those charts. It's showing up as N/A for me. What I do know is, Xbox 360 version sold 2.5m copies alone out of almost 4.5m. 2nd got close to 3m sold. Those are not massive numbers by any stretch, but the 3rd one is 10 years in the making. Couple that with a bigger gaming audience, and being exclusive to Switch. Not saying that will push Switch over the edge of 100m, but It may help grind out the numbers. It could get 2m copies or more for Switch, who knows? With that announcement, I'm just wondering if there's more we don't know about. Either way, I really think Nintendo should come out with a more powerful revision, instead of treating it like the DS family systems. I just don't think it's going to cut it, if they have a new version with same specs and smaller screen. That might work for Japan but not the whole mass market.
@Mallow When I got an Xbox One for Rare Replay not many people was buying Xbox One. I don't know how could I enjoy it so much then!
@johnvboy
Yeah, I can't see the launch of the PS5 and Xbox Two doing anything to hurt Switch sales.
Switch sales are largely tied to the success of Nintendo's first party software output, which has been incredibly successful since the Switch's launch, highlighted recently by the overwhelming success of Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go. The only way Switch sales will take a huge hit from the launch of the new consoles is if Nintendo conincedentally stops releasing first party software, which obviously won't happen.
Despite this, there are still people who think the mass market is buying Switches to play 3rd party ports of Xbox/PlayStation games...
@Tantani What you say makes sense to me but I will go further. Will Nintendo make Switch's successor a home console that is backwards compatible with Switch games? That way they wouldn't have so many technical limitations but at the same time the Switch is mobile technology.
@westman98 Well in my defence I said "Switch as we know it today". I also said that hardware revisions and price cut would boost sales, obviously.
@MrBlacky The console launched in March 2011 and the price cut by a third was in July 2011 if I remember correctly. I bought the original model right after the discount. So yes, only one model at the time and only three-four months later.
@BlueOcean
The "Switch as we know it today" has been incredibly successful, and unless Nintendo suddenly stop releasing first party games on the platform, it will continue to be incredibly successful.
@BlueOcean with the switch being 2 months out at that point, nintendo had no data to backup their claim that it could sell more than the wii. That’s the difference between could and will in this case.
One can predict accurately if one has data to back it up, unless crazy stuff that can’t be foreseen happens of course...
All my humble opinion of course, just saying that I can’t take Nintendo’s prediction of 1,5 year old that serious, but looking at current numbers they actually might have been right back in the day
@MongolRaider Yes, the numbers are like that. I mean that it won't reach Odyssey's sales but obviously it's going to be popular like on 360 (the best-selling version) so we agree.
The same console but smaller with better screens will be immensely popular in Japan, I don't know if it would be over here. Who knows.
@westman98 Nobody thinks that people buy a Switch for third-party games only. On the contrary I said that all best-sellers are first-party except Mario-themed Mario+Rabbids, but you can't ignore that third-party games are a very important market. Wii U was also very successful in the beginning. Switch still is, but less than two years have passed since launch and still very far from 3DS or Wii.
@Friendly They did say it and that's what I say so I was right and you were wrong. Admit it and say sorry for your unFriendliness.
They’re clearly going to power through that 100 million software target, and with a 2D Mario out in January (being on the Wii U previously doesn’t matter much) they could maybe just make it to 20 million.
Either way they could well be on 35 million hardware sales by the two year mark, which is outrageously good. It’s shifting software to the extent that Smash is breaking ‘fastest selling game on a Nintendo home system’ records. All the reasons we see repeated as to what will cause sales to slow simply haven’t been right.
@SwitchForce “This is a fanboy” - by a user called SwitchForce.
Like it or not, there will be people who are interested in a Switch who are also interested in PC, ‘PS5/NextBox’. It is foolish to say that the other manufacturers will not have an impact on the Switch in some way, shape or form. I’ve already mentioned in previous posts how Nintendo possibly could maintain momentum, so stop with the childish accusations and discuss instead.
@BlueOcean
3rd party games are important, sure, but nowhere near as important for Nintendo hardware than for the other consoles.
That's why I don't think any supposed "exodus" in 3rd party software support (that will happen after the launch of the PS5/XB2) will do anything to harm Switch sales, assuming such "exodus" happens in the first place.
With regards to the Wii U, it was successful during the first 6 weeks of its lifespan, then its sales collapsed and never recovered ever again. The Switch will sell 50% more hardware in December 2018 than the Wii U has sold during any given entire calendar year.
I suppose time will tell.
Not a chance. Love the hardware and games like botw, odyssey but the switch has far too many over-priced ports that arrive months or years after other systems. Unless i develop the memory of a gold fish I will not be double dipping! So far it is the most disappointing Nintendo system I have purchased. Less cardboard and more physical games please!
@westman98 Well, how can you beat an attach ratio of over 1:1? Remember that more copies of Breath of the Wild Switch than Switch consoles were sold during the launch window.
@TheMadPolarBear Nothing better than a combo!
@monty-gti6 It's bad for those of us that have a Wii U and all its wonderful games already. Only a few exclusives for us on Switch.
@Grumblevolcano Just noticed Yoshi has appeared as coming soon on the UK Eshop, it doesn't have a specific date yet but it's obviously pretty soon. Perhaps February?
@BlueOcean
That was 21 months ago.
Breath of the Wild' s current attach rate is well below 50%.
@westman98 You don't have any sense of humour.
@Mrtoad That is true. But Wii is such an odd machine. It lived far longer than most Nintendo machines, its games were incredibly cheap and there were so many of them. Revenue per user was still low considering...
But we live in a different world today. Console market is very much a high spending sector, rather than the biggest one. There’s an estimated 2 billion gamers, but probably no more than 200 million console gamers (and I’m being generous). That’s why Nintendo is branching into mobile. Switch is the most lucrative platform for it, but mobile is the biggest one.
Anyway. The question isn’t whether the Switch will be successful. It’s ‘how’ successful. The key, as always, is in the software. Switch had great momentum year one, that momentum carried them through a slow start to 2018, and now its objective is to maintain that momentum through the coming year. With quality games, strong digital pipeline, decent engagement and, very importantly, a good cadence of software.
When I looked at the Switch early on I wrote how the Wii U might be a saviour for it, because when Nintendo goes through that inevitable line-up slump it always has (such as this year), it’s got a bunch of decent sized games it can port to plug gaps in the schedule.
So based on that, plus the fact there is only one console to develop for these days, I can’t help but feel Nintendo has the games in its arsenal to keep consumers engaged for far longer than it has been able to historically (Game Boy aside).
But obviously we shall see.
@BlueOcean In the case of MUA3, I should point out that the context is much different. The Marvel brand is far, far bigger in popularity now than it ever was, and unless people's interest in the Marvel brand somehow drops off a cliff post Avengers Endgame (lol), then it should be a very big exclusive for them. More so than Octopath or Daemon X Machina at least.
They'll absolutely smash (pun absolutely intended) that software target
As for the third party argument... although I agree from an engagement perspective, the reality is that people buy Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games. If you look at the Top 10 best selling games on every single Nintendo machine, you have to go back to Street Fighter 2 on the SNES to find a third party game.
In other words, third party is very important to any console. Of course. But Nintendo, more than any others, has the internal capacity to overcome many of it. Especially now with just the single major platform to support
@IceClimbers MUA3 could be a Smashing hit.
@TheMadPolarBear I’d wager it’s going to badly hurt switch if those consoles come between now and the beginning of 2020
@BlueOcean good way to try and win an argument at the end. Internet must be proud.
@FlimFlam I wasn't going to in depth with the money or "success", just the possibility or likelihood of Switch selling 100m. Which I think is possible, if not likely. But that's probably my prediction number b/c I'm not going to guess 93 or 102, I'm going to guess 100.
Here's the reality, lots of people will guess, lots will be wrong, some will be right, but nobody knows, it's all just picking a number out of a hat. Nintendo is weird - 2DS, Virtual Boy, Wii U Gamepad, 3DS 33% price cut, no Wii U price cut, 2DS, New 2DS which is really a 3DS. So who's going to guess Switch Micro or Switch i or New Switch or dockless Switch or huge price cut? Nobody knows.
But based on past sales I think 100m is certainly possible. Woudlnt' rule it out, woudln't bet the house on it either. But if I gotta pick a number, that's the number.
I’m slightly confused... switch had sold
Almost 23 million hardware units by Q3 this year but the target was originally 20million in two years? It’s doing well!
@rjejr Oh, I see what you mean now. Yes, I think 100 million is very possible. Should be a fun ride from now until then
@OorWullie 2 Nintendo platformers in 2 consecutive months is a bit extreme, I think March for Yoshi.
@Simonmoskovits Nintendo sold about 18m units the first year. Their target for March of next year is 20m. So basically they estimated to sell 38m consoles by March 2019, which there is no chance of that happening now. Nothing to worry about, Nintendo just overestimated a bit. It's possible it could be in the early 30's by then.
@MongolRaider thanks buddy! I’ve never been good with figures... money goes in... more money goes out! That’s a huge target after the Wii U flopped... seems like they are on the right track? I hope the next Pokemon gave isn’t a a movie tie in to boost sales much as I love Ryan Reynolds.. could u imagin?!
Predictions for total hardware sales March 2019 - 32-35 million. I bet an imaginary dollar!
What do y’all think?
@Dringo Excellent analysis!
@Simonmoskovits Yw bro. Yeah, I'd say Nintendo is definitely on the right track. I just wish they would release 1 big title through early or mid part of the year to keep up the momentum. It was starting to slip away until Pokemon and Smash picked up the pieces. It doesn't matter, it can be 1st or third-party. Though, I suppose Fortnite and Diablo 3 may have sold some Switches, holding up the fort (pun intended) till Poke and Smash arrived. It was a bumpy 2018, but not too bad. I think next year we'll see more releases throughout the year. Anyway, I hope there is no movie tie in for Pokemon as well. I''ve never been a Pokemon fan, but this is the first that I've had any insterest. For the first time ever I'm actually excited about Pokemon. Wow, never thought I would say that!
Predictions for total hardware sales March 2019 - 32-35 million. I bet an imaginary dollar!
What do y’all think?
I'll go with 33m. I'm not much of a betting man, but I can spare an imaginary dollar. I can win at poker 8 out of 10 times but as soon as I put real money on the table, I lose 8 out of 10.
If Nintendo miss their targets, I don’t expect it to be by 9 million. That’s quite a miss.
H1 currently has Yoshi, New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe and Fire Emblem. Which is ok. Nintendo has recently taken to announcing something in January/February and releasing it in March/April. So we’ll see if that continues. I’m sure there will be something else in there
@MongolRaider @Simonmoskovits Yoshi has appeared on the Eshop coming soon section so it looks like it's release isn't too far off. After NSMBU in January, I reckon we'll have Daemon X Machina and Yoshi before the end of March. That's a pretty strong start to the year. 2018 we had to wait until Kirby in March.
@OorWullie Good deal. I might be tempted to pick up either Yoshi, or NSMBU since I never got that on WiiU. That DXM game... Idk, something turns me off about it. Just have to wait and see on that one. MK11 will be coming out in, I think April? So I will be picking that up too. Man, 2019 is looking to be a good year so far.
@Friendly Oh boy, you really should change your forum name.
@Tantani as to Switch 2.0 that most likely will have more juice and gpu added and upgraded dock as well to handle it. And hopefully we get some kind PC software support so you can backup the system not only for Cloud.
@Anti-Matter That's a little too lofty of an ambition, I think the chances of it surpassing the Wii in unit sales are pretty slim, especially since I don't think they can keep up their first party major hitter-momentum beyond Pokemon 2019 unless Metroid Prime 4 is a 2020 title like I suspect (but then again, Metroid historically hasn't really sold that well compared to the top-tier franchises at Nintendo)
@BlueBlur101 it seems that this time the Metroid hype is real, and wee still have pickman 4 coming and bunch of other big names
And in 2020 it will be good time to start creating sequels, I wouldn’t worry that much for Nintendo right now
I mean Pikmin 4 is still way up in the air, because I'm not even sure Miyamoto knows if it's a real game or not! Remember how long Miyamoto took to admit that Super Mario 128 was just a tech demo rather than an actual game?
Metroid I'm not worried about whatsoever, other than the fact that I'm slightly hesitant on the direction Kensuke Tanabe will take the project considering the fact he also took the lead on projects such as Sticker Star, Color Splash and Federation Force...
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