NPD Predicts Switch Will Be 2018's Best-Selling Console Despite PS4's Current Lead

Kinda figured Smash would crack the top 10 at least.

I think Switch will be 2nd due to the lack of big 3rd party games and the 1st party drought between next week and October.

That the PS4 is still #1 in the US is all about the games. They done a great job.

Just Look at that list - Basically the Switch is like having a Wii. Even after selling millions of units in the US, You still needed a PlayStation to play all the top games.

Having Both was the way to go - like now. That said - I still think Smash will be on that list.

I wouldn't be surprised if the switch pulled it off but I am surprised about the top 10 software games. I think Pokemon especially has a chance of being in the top 10 since it's going to have almost 2 months to sale and it's being released before Black Friday. I guess the multi platform aspect of it hurts Nintendo but it's Pokemon.

@Alikan Most of those games are multiplat, and the PS4 games have a huge install base advantage over Switch. The fact that FIFA isn't on the list is odd. Tomb Raider 3 should sell well as well. NBA but no FIFA?

The article doesn't say, but since this is NPD is it about US sales or worldwide sales for 2018?

Edit: I read the linked to article and he writes "U.S." about 4 times, including the first sentence. Maybe the author of this article understands NPD=US, but it should probably still be mentioned in the article for those unaware who may think he is talking about global sales. Pokémon and SSBU will likely sell really well in Japan but not enough in the US to push them into the top 10.

So Switch Top selling console and no Switch Exclusive Game in the best selling of the year? Only NBA and NFL (ports) ? And hell, Red Dead is a great franchise but it is nowhere near as popular as COD and Battlefield...

@wratih9 I have a feeling this pokemon will undersell compared to past ones. Personally I play every normal pokemon game (none of the spinoffs generally), but I have zero plans to pick this up I don't like the style of the game. I think the gameplay is just too polarizing and is going to lead to lower sales.

@dougphisig Maybe, but I also think there's a much larger casual Pokemon audience than that "core" pokemon audience that insists on every game being their game. Switch is a hit, but compared to Pokemon launching on fully established 3DS or DS life cycles, sure it'll sell way less at least up front. But proportionately I imagine there's a lot of Switch owners that are A) Die hard Pokemon fans that will buy any Pokemon no matter what, B) Casual Pokemon fans that enjoy what this one looks like but are otherwise into other games and will buy (I'm probably more in that category), and C) Lapsed gamers that played Go, played mobile, but bought into Switch to move up in the world of games, and will find it very comfortable.

Then there's group D, the whiny die hard fans which, like Smash fans, will never be pleased with anything but a pixel perfect port of Yellow or Silver.

@rjejr yeah - I was assuming it is only USA. FIFA didn't make it last year either - NBA is big.

NPD’s 10 best-selling games of 2017

1 Call of Duty: WWII
2 NBA 2K18
3 Destiny 2**
4 Madden NFL 18
5 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
6 Grand Theft Auto V
7 Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Wildlands
8 Star Wars: Battlefront II
9 Super Mario Odyssey
10 Mario Kart 8

@rjejr ah. Yeah I was thinking worldwide sales. Explains all the dudebro games in their predicted top 10 even more now 😁

No doubt the Switch will do well but with Red Dead coming out later this year I think PS4 will just pip Switch to the post.

My prediction for the top 10 would be:
1. Red Dead Redemption 2
2. Black Ops 4
3. Battlefield V
4. NBA 2K19
5. Madden NFL19
6. Fallout 76
7. Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee
8. Far Cry 5
9. God of War
10. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

I have a feeling that Nintendo still have one big announcement up their sleeves. Could be wrong, just a feeling.

Nintendo better announce all the stuffs I ask for or else I won't be supporting them in 2019. These are what I want and I cannot lie:

A new F-Zero for Switch
A new Golden Sun for Switch
K. Rool, Shantae, and Isaac for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
A new Advance Wars for Switch
A new game from Retro Studio for Switch
A new Mario and Luigi RPG for Switch
The Mother f**king trilogy for Switch
A new Kid Icarus game for Switch
Ports of Paper Mario: Color Splash, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE, and Super Mario 3D World for Switch
Mario Kart 9 for Switch
HD remastered of Fatal Frame IV & V for Switch
Remastered or sequel to Eternal Darkness for Switch
Reveal of the N64 Classic Edition, it must have at least 25 games on it.

Top 10 above = Best Selling / Must Play games ?!
Are you Freaking Kidding Me ??!!
These are SHOULD Be Top 10: (In no particular order)
1. Zelda BOTW
2. Splatoon 2
3. Super Mario Odyssey
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
5. Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze
6. ARMS
7. Mario Tennis Aces
8. Xenoblade Chronicles 2
9. Pokemon Let's Go
10. Captain Toad Treasure Tracker

For Christ's sake, nobody show Anti-Matter that top 10 list, he will do his nut.

Edit: too late

@retro_player_22 How good would it be if that was the actual name for the trilogy?

Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee will be seperated into 2 different games, so there is no way it will be one of Top 10 best-selling games of 2018.

Smash Bros Ultimate has a shot at being one of the Top 10 best-selling games of 2018, but it won't be easy. Brawl sold 2.7 million copies in its first month (March 2008), so if Ultimate replicates that gigantic launch, then it could also be among the Top 10 best-selling games of 2018. Since this list is sorted by revenue rather than by unit sales, if Smash Bros Ultimate had an expensive collector's edition, that would help its chances of being among the Top 10 best-sellers.

Speaking of revenue, I still believe COD Black Ops IIII will be the best-selling game of the year in revenue even if it sells less units than Red Dead Redemption 2. I imagine a lot of hardcore fans will be forced to by the $100 collector's edition in order to gain access to the Black Ops pass. It seems like Red Dead Redemption 2's most expensive collector's edition doesn't lock that much content away and is also exclusive to Gamestop.

I'm skeptical COD and Battlefield will outsell God of War given how badly both were initially received, and given that Red Dead is going to heavily steal from their audience.

Glad to see God of War in the list so far my GOTY

@Alikan in what, the 15-20 days it releases before the end of the year?? Lol

Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu has a chance of breaking into the Top 10, surely, as I think it will probably cannibalise the sales of Eevee. Smash releases way too late in the year, I suspect - though it should have a good few weeks till the new year. Let's be fair: there's nothing else on Nintendo's release slate that will even nudge into a US top 10 this year.

Not very interesting to me what he thinks.

You never know. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, BOTW, and Super Mario Odyssey all made the top 10 list last year despite being exclusives and despite the Switch having a much smaller install base than the PS4 or Xbox. All three have sold over 10 million units each already, yes? That's huge. If Smash doesn't make the list, it will only be because of the December release date (had it released in September along with the Switch Online, I think it would have easily cracked the list). And if the sales of Eevee and Pikachu are combined as one title, it will probably make it.

Even if they don't, no big deal. Of the 10 predicted, 8 are multiplatform and 2 are exclusives to a console with a 70 million+ install base compared to the Switch's ~20 million. Switch titles shouldn't realistically be expected to compete in terms of sales numbers yet, although incredibly the three I mentioned from last year did just that.

Most of those games I would never ever buy. Like sports and general shooters one. The only one I picked was God Of War. Nintendo is really the best platform for me after seeing this top ten. It's a shame no Nintendo game is on the list, I would love to see Nintendo on top of the world.

Not sure the Switch will pull off such a comeback in the fall and holidays.

BUT!! I'm willing to bet money that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will make it into the top ten for this year.

I think lets go Pokemon is goin to top the table.

Would expect either pokemon or smash to make the list

So...only 1 (NBA 2K19) of the predicted top 10 best sellers are even coming to the Switch yet it's going to be 2018's best selling console? I seriously doubt that! The Switch's sales pace has slowed down considerably from it's first 12 months on the market. The PS4 will have crazy deals this Holiday season with bundles, discounts on hardware and software, a full lineup of $20 greatest hits titles etc. Sorry, Switch will still finish in 2nd place. Just being honest here.

PS4 is leading the way, but with two separate systems, PS4 and PS4Pro. That's why the May NPD charts showed Switch was the best-selling SKU while not being #1 in overall hardware sales.

That coupled with the Switch being a much newer system with a bigger gaming hook (TV + handheld) makes this sound very possible.

What is there for Nintendo Switch after Octopath Traveller for the rest of this year? I've no interest in Smash or Pokemon. Does that mean I have to wait I till early 2019 in the hope of something great coming? The momentum has fallen away this year it seems

@Alikan "Explains all the dudebro games"

Pretty much. It does make me wonder what a Top 10 Japan list must look like in any given year. Weird "niche" JRPG, DQ, those Taiko drum master games. VR girlfriends.

@Agramonte "NPD’s 10 best-selling games of 2017"

Thanks for the list, gives this list a little context.

Just b/c, I looked up FIFA '17 sales on everybody's least favorite site VGChartz, and FIFA is about 1m US, 8m EU. I can't imagine there are too many other games that sell like that.

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/117272/fifa-17/

This makes no sense, Switch will be number 1 but none of the games on Switch will be top 10? I think this person might be smoking something.

@Heavyarms55 User base mate.

@GrailUK okay yeah. I guess that makes sense.

That list looks about right except for the fact that Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee and Smash Ultimate will be somewhere on that list. Sure, they are only on one console but they are also potential console sellers so I'm pretty confident about my guess.

Also, the only games on that list that pique my interest are RDR2 (still need to play the others though), God of War (recently beat it and it's my GotY so far), Monster Hunter World (have it but haven't played it yet), and Spider-Man (already have it pre-ordered).

@PlayedNSlayed Well, there's Super Mario Party, Overcooked 2, Morphies Law, Warframe, and Dragon Ball FighterZ to name a few. Also, Nintendo said they have more in store for 2018 so I don't know if they'll shadow drop something in the fall.

@rjejr Famitsu Top 10 2017 Japan (sort of)

https://kotaku.com/here-are-the-biggest-selling-games-in-japan-in-2017-1824250532

Yeah - they make their cash in the EU with FIFA.

@Trajan Or better yet- build a PC! That's what I did, I'm super glad I did. The games are way cheaper (especially with steam summer and winter sales) and upgrading is way cheaper too. Admittedly you do have to invest more in the beginning, but once you do, you'll find a Switch and Gaming PC make a great combo

@Agramonte There's not a single FPS on that Japan list. I think even anitmatter could almost find it tolerable.

No virtual dating or niche JRPG either, which I'm kind of surprised about. Well not the virtual dating, but I assumed some Persona or Shin Me game would be on there. 3 new Switch games must have made Ntinedo very happy, can't imagine Wii U had too many years like that. 3DS is always there I suppose.

Ofc Pokemon will be on the list....it will sell like 4 millions on first month. But it still not enough. Switch could do better if Nintendo put more effort on second year... Like making some more exclusive deals with 3d party developers and be more competitive on price. N did it for Gamecube and RE4 why they can't do it for Switch? Dont tell me its cause they don't need to.

Pretty interesting. I don't doubt that Pokemon and Smash will be major sellers, but what else is the NPD basing its prediction on? Does it expect Nintendo to give massive discounts near the holidays as well? Either way, this is good news for Nintendo.

Speaking of sales, where are the Japanese sales from this past week and the week before? If NLife doesn't post them, could I make a forum discussion for them?

@rjejr well P5 was 2016 in japan - 2017 West.Yeah, WiiU didn't have a single game in the top 20 in 2016.

http://nintendotoday.com/top-20-best-selling-japanese-games-in-2016-revealed/

Obvious why Western 3rd party publishers don't really care what is the top selling console in Japan when they decide who to support 😆

@Trajan Ha! Welcome back! 👍

@Agramonte I don't think Wii U had any games in 2016. A few games in 2015, then it skipped 2016 while it waited for Zelda in 2017.

OK maybe Starfox Zero in early 2016, and SMTxFE in the spring, but 2016 was not a good year to be a Wii U owner in any country. And I own a lot of Wii U games. Way more than Switch, I think we own 5 Switch games - SMO, Sonic Forces, Lego Marvel, Snipperclips Plus - which hardly counts, Kirby Star Allies and Labo. All the other big Switch games we own on Wii U. Including SFZ and AC:aF. Taking advantage of the Toys R US bankruptcy sales.

But 2016 was arguably emptier than 2017 for Wii U.

SSBU will probably make the top ten based on its pre-Christmas releases date. I know its already on the top of my wishlist and will be for many other switch owners, both young and old

@20wonders I really hope they do announce something else. Of those you listed I'll probably take a look at Warframe. The others aren't anything of interest to me. I've still to finish a bit of a backlog and would like to pick up Octopath Traveller maybe and at some point possibly Wolfenstein 2.

@PlayedNSlayed If you need some recommendations, I have quite a bit of Switch games. Which genres do you enjoy?

@NEStalgia there's another problem with that though. They're trying to get an audience who's used to paying small amounts to do in app purchases, not $300 for a system, and another $60 for a game! It may have worked on the $80 2DS, and $20 Pokemon games from the Selects, but paying $100 versus paying $360 is MASSIVE! That's why casuals don't own systems anymore and play on their phone.

@pika677 the same casuals already spent $800 on candy crush or pxd...... . They already spend the cash, it's just about convincing them when to spend it. That's a hard sell but one they have to make regardless. The Japan audience, the biggest and arguably the just important to Nintendo, is going to be a lot easier to convince.

@NEStalgia but they don't spend the $800 at one time, it's nickel and dimed there- that's how apps work, they make the person think "oh, it's only $1, I can pay that" or "oh, it's only $2, I'll pay it" then it adds up. Asking for them to bite off that massive amount at one time is a major bite, that's why when the 3DS surged during Pokemon Go, it wasn't the $150 3DS that surged, it was the $80 2DS. It's all about mindset, playing a game nickel and diming people is a FAR easier sell than trying to convince them of a giant bite (that's one reason why Switch hardware was down year-on-year from the quarterly report).

@pika677 Certanly, that's more or less what I was saying above in terms of convincing them "when" to spend the money. It has to be made clear that $800 now is cheaper and a better qol than $1000 $1 at a time. Not an easy challenge but it's the route they're going for, and not necessarily a bad one. How did the NES take off, after all? By convincing people that the costs associated with it all at once was more worthwhile than a quarter at a time in the arcade (which was still extremely popular at the time.) In many ways we've merely come full circle. Mobile has moved the arcade into the home, and you still need to insert a quarter to continue.