Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@GrailUK As @FragRed says, 10 year cycle doesn't mean much at this point. 3DS support isn't fully stopping until early 2024 so that is theoretically 13 years of at least partial support. Switch will be at minimum 7 years old when the next console comes (close to 8 if it is holiday 2024 which is my guess) and surely there will be a long period of overlap support for both consoles given how many Switch 1s exist. I think it would be actively hard for the Switch 1 not to have a 10+ year cycle at this point. As for output of games, it wouldn't surprise me if they went the PS5 route where there was a slow trickle of Switch 2 exclusives the first year or two to encourage people upgrading but with the vast majority of games coming to both consoles during that time.

A March 2024 launch would shock me, but I suppose if it happens I wouldn't complain. 😆

@FishyS Yeah, that's a good shout. They are more set up for a Sony type model of operating these days and have their ownplace in the market. I'm not too sure how telling the next Direct will be. They still have to keep people excited for Switch. So I doubt it will be dry. So like what you say, a couple of exclusives for Switch 2 will get people to erm...switch lol. Yeah, ok, I see how this works. Nice one. So, basically, they can release it whenever they want hahahaaha

Edit: I'll just hope Nintendo aren't stumbling into the AAA trap that they have expertly avoided.

@MarioBrickLayer I have no idea lol. I suppose the boring answer is if a game sells x million every time they launch something, then they keep putting games on Switch.

My thinking is we'll hear about the next console sometime next year, and we'll get our usual February direct, given that we still have Nintendo first party titles releasing (even if they aren't massive games). Metroid Prime 4 is probably in Dev hell and will probably release 10 years after announcement, much like Pikmin 4.

@GrailUK I honestly don't think that Nintendo will just keep the switch around forever just because games still keep selling on it. The Wii sold a lot of games towards the end of the console's life, but Nintendo still moved on despite that. The Switch is getting older tech-wise, and it's going to be harder and harder for companies to put their games on it. Nintendo is starting to wrap things up, as most of the first party titles are now ports, remakes, or small outings to buy them time until they're ready to drop the next big thing. I think Nintendo Youtubers jump the gun a lot and tend to be too sure of themselves when it comes to new systems. They constantly listen to unreliable leaks and parrot them, saying they're 100% truth because the leaker is famous and got everything right (Although there's many times that leaker got things wrong and they try to hide it). However, I don't think it really takes a leaker or a Nintendo youtuber to tell that the switch is nearing the end of its lifespan, and that new hardware is around the corner. Sure, it might not be next year.. but I would be very surprised if we don't see something out by late 2025/early 2026 at the latest.

Nintendo told shareholders no hardware for the current fiscal year so we know it's not releasing before April 2024 at the earliest but I don't see it happening before September 2024. Nintendo's used up most of their big franchises in the past few years which leaves 3D Mario as the most suitable big launch title. 3D Mario launch in April 2024 would cannibalize pretty much the entire Switch lineup that released from Mario Wonder onwards (note that Mario Wonder is still selling very well) or you'd get a NSMBU on Wii U type situation where people don't care about getting a new console for a new Mario game because of oversaturation.

So, we have;
January - Another Code
February - Mario Vs DK
March - Princess Peach Showtime.
Summer - Luigi's Mansion 2
Paper Mario Thousand Year Door - 2024 (maybe out before LM2?)
Metroid Prime 4 - ???

Is it usual for us to know so much about Nintendo's releases for the next year (as far back as September?)

Not a horrible lineup so far. I'm happy to be kicking off 2024 with Prince of Persia actually. I'll skip another code for now.

The Wii U was released too early (the other two 8th gen consoles came out a year later), and releasing a new console just for the sake of having a new console was clearly a losing strategy.

2026 or later.

@GrailUK Don't forget Fantasy Life i in 2024 and Professor Layton in 2025.

Second-party games sure, but still. Switch exclusives.

@NintendoByNature Crap, I keep forgetting about that! 2024 shaping up to be decent!

@Euler You say the Wii U released too early because the PS4 and Xbox One released the year after. But then say the next Nintendo console should release in 2026 or later? According to the leaked documents, Microsoft plans to launch the next Xbox in 2028. So Nintendo would immediately be in the same position if they released later than 2026.

@GrailUK yep. And judging by all the previews, it's gonna be a great contender to go up against the likes of metroid dread. It'll be a day 1 buy for me. Hoping ill be cleared of games and ready to go for launch day so I can give it my full attention.

@Euler The Wii U didn't fail because it "released too early." That's revisionist history made so you can attempt to disprove anything earlier than a 2026 date for the Switch successor. The reason why the Wii U failed was a combination of bad marketing along with the system's form factor not being something that developers wanted to work with, thus no third party support and not many exclusives outside of nintendo's first party offerings. The name was what confused people, given that they believed the Wii U to be an accessory to the normal Wii, and not its own console.

I'd argue the switch successor would be no-where near "too early" if it launched next year, given that the current switch is genuinely ancient hardware at this point. It was outdated back in 2017, and now Cellphones are able to run raytraced PS5 games. In about one to two years devs are probably going to start seeing the Switch as a hassle to bring their future games to. Games like Monster Hunter Wilds won't be coming to switch most likely, given how it wouldn't be able to run without heavy downgrades.

February 2024. There will be a Pokémon Direct about Gen II Remastered version games.

@LinkxPeach Ehh, it seems like things are moreso trending towards either Gen 5 Remakes or Gen 5 sequels. However, we are getting a Pokemon Presents on February 27th, if previous years are to be believed.

I mean... Switch came out 3 years before PS5. The consoles don't necessarily all try to line up, they just make a new console when it makes sense for each company. The 'generation' logic doesn't mean much anymore, especially since it is a little silly from a hardware point of view to say Switch and PS5 are the same generation.

@GrailUK the Paper Mario the Thousand Years Door remake was rated yesterday by the ESRB, the game might release sooner then we antecipated, probably in april/may.

I feel like June is probably the time we'll get it, assuming nothing is releasing in June. If something is, I feel like it's probably Luigi's Mansion 2, and I only forgot that (if it is) because LM2 is the worst game in the series.

@Giancarlothomaz I figured it would be first half of 2024. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but we like know just about every game Nintendo has planned for the first 6 months. I reckon that's unprecedented. I reckon making sure the average Switch owner has a slew of games coming could be a sign that the next Switch is indeed due next year! Maybe. I'd better take my tinfoil hat off again. Or, they are simply ramping up software for such a high install base.

Waiting until 2025, or even worse, 2026, could mean missing out on the handheld gaming train.
Unlike 2017, the Switch have now several alternatives, and more others surely will come.
They need to come out with a more powerful Switch soon, if they wait too long it could be that a good amount of Switch users could decide to go with other solutions.