Okay I know not many here are big on sales conversations but can we talk about how insane it is that this game sold 5 million in just 4 days? 5 million was my predicted floor for LIFETIME sales and it already passed that at launch. I mean it's OoT, but still I don't think we've ever seen a remake sell like this, it's already sold 50-100% of what an average remake in a popular IP would sell. Forget 5-10 million, if OoT is selling this much out of the gate, 20+ million feels more realistic (and even that might be conservative).
I mean you never know how long a game will sell. Link's Awakening sold huge pretty quickly too but that faded. For all the talk of evergreen titles, for most Nintendo games that isn't especially true. I think Astral Chain sold a million immediately and then like 10 copies a month afterwards. :V
OOT's big advantage is that its the first real (no offense, Age of Imprisonment) next gen Zelda release. That combine with the hype of...y'know, the factually most critically acclaimed video game (and not coming out at a low point of Nintendo like early 3DS was) being remade with impressive graphics (that actually stand out, unlike your average UE5 Game Awards trailer slop).
But yeah, did not anticipate this, especially because OOT 3D didn't save 3DS, and BOTW and TOTK were so far ahead of any other Zelda, including other Switch 1 Zeldas. I'm curious what did it, if it was just the right game at the right time in ways that it wasn't for 3DS. I can say for myself, I had almost zero interest in the N64 remakes back then. If I bought a 3DS remake the past 9 years, I would've chosen the FE remake on 3DS, series I've never gotten that into, over the remakes of 3 of my favorite games of all time. Just not what I wanted or needed at all. And that's when literally nothing else was happening on 3DS when OOT 3D came out, compared to Switch 2 which between new games, ports and a massive amount of Switch 1 games to play, has impossibly more competition. But that's just me.
I'm very happy. OOT's not my favorite Zelda, but this type of game is a contender for my favorite. Not a ton of games fully go for that Zelda style, even at the time, but between how impossibly good the actual Zeldas were, and the handful of 3D Zelda-ish games I've gotten into (Megaman Legends, Beyond Good and Evil, Okami) are also fantastic, just a real peak genre there.
i'm just curious what nerrel thinks about it. especially now that we have the data of how crazy it sold and was rated, and given that this changes quite a lot more than the star fox remake did, there's plenty to cover on what might be better or worse than the original.
@kkslider5552000 I think there's several factors as to why this version is more successful than the 3DS version. For one, the Switch 2 is working with a much larger install base than the 3DS, the 3DS hadn't even sold 1 million by that point while the Switch 2 is up to 26.35 million. The other major reason is that this remake is a much more ambitious remake than the 3DS remake, the 3DS remake is more like a remaster where the graphics feel more like an upres (IDR if that's true, but the graphics are very similar to the point that it feels like one) and the 3DS' QoL improvements were on a smaller scale than the Switch 2's. This version of the game feels far more like a night and day improvement over the original whereas the 3DS feels closer to a marginal upgrade.
Link's Awakening sold huge pretty quickly too but that faded. For all the talk of evergreen titles, for most Nintendo games that isn't especially true. I think Astral Chain sold a million immediately and then like 10 copies a month afterwards. :V
It's hard to track since Nintendo doesn't release the data and not all stores (depending on the country) do either. I wish Nintendo updated their sales figures beyond the top 10. All we tend to know for sure is that very few games sell a million copies in a single year after their initial year. Occasionally Nintendo gives us some indirect information - for example we know mario maker 2 sold around a million more copies spread over 4 or so years because Nintendo once released a total for all mainline Switch mario games and we were able to subtract to figure out mario maker. I suspect more Nintendo games slowly grab an extra million or more sales over time than we realize, which isn't a ton but might be very significant for some of the medium selling games. I always wonder about this when they choose to continue a franchise which didn't do sterling in the first few months.
For OoT, it is presumably going to be in the top 10 selling switch 2 games for at least 2 years so we will get an interesting exact quarterly update on sales.
It's hard to track since Nintendo doesn't release the data and not all stores (depending on the country) do either. I wish Nintendo updated their sales figures beyond the top 10. All we tend to know for sure is that very few games sell a million copies in a single year after their initial year. Occasionally Nintendo gives us some indirect information - for example we know mario maker 2 sold around a million more copies spread over 4 or so years because Nintendo once released a total for all mainline Switch mario games and we were able to subtract to figure out mario maker. I suspect more Nintendo games slowly grab an extra million or more sales over time than we realize, which isn't a ton but might be very significant for some of the medium selling games. I always wonder about this when they choose to continue a franchise which didn't do sterling in the first few months.
For OoT, it is presumably going to be in the top 10 selling switch 2 games for at least 2 years so we will get an interesting exact quarterly update on sales.
At least 2 years feels generous. It's sitting in the #2 spot after launch, as long as sales don't fall off a cliff it will take a LOT of high selling titles to bump it off. Right now the Top 10 looks like this:
1. Mario Kart World- 16.48 million
2. OoT- 5.2 million
3. Pokopia- 5.18 million
4. Bananza- 5.05 million
5. Pokemon Legends Z-A S2E- 4.04 million
6. Splatoon Raiders- 2.02 million
7. Kirby Air Riders- 1.94 million
8. Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave- 1.34 million
9. Super Mario Party Jamboree S2E- 1.28 million
10. Star Fox- 1.17 million
The only way I see OoT exiting the top 10 in 2 years is if sales fall off a cliff and we get tons of heavy hitters. Can you think of 9 games coming in the near future that you think could outsell OoT? I'm struggling. I could see WiWa, an 11th gen Pokemon game if it arrives on Switch 2 (I think it probably will but it might be kinda late in the gen), a new 3D Mario, a new 3D Zelda, a new Animal Crossing, Smash 6 with relative certainty (in fact I'm more questioning which of these will actually release before the end of the generation than whether they can outsell OoT, although I do think we'll get most if not all of them for the record). That's not enough to bump it out of the Top 10, and if it sells 20+ million like I think it could there's a high chance it stays in the Top 10 for life, look at the Switch 1 Top 10 and the #10 spot is NSMBU Deluxe at 19.22 million and that tells you about where the Top 10 cutoff is. Now if not, then maybe you could also see titles like a new 2D Mario, smaller Pokemon titles like Legends and remakes, Switch Sports Resort, Luigi's Mansion 4, Splatoon 4, maybe even Kirby and the World Beyond but it would probably take more like 3-5 years to get that many. The only way I see it falling off in 2 is if sales utterly plummet after these launch numbers. Other than that, OoT will probably be a top selling game for Switch 2 for a long, long time.
I said 'at least 2' because it is basically impossible that it doesn't stay in the top 10 for 2 years — we're not getting 9 really big selling games in 2 years.
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