Switch On Track To Exceed 10 Month Wii Sales By 20 Percent, Says NPD Analyst

Nintendo keeps surprising me with these awesome sales figures.

That's very impressive.

I doubt Pokemon will be released by 2018 (perhaps a very late Christmas launch), but whenever it is, sales will go up even further. Heck, just an exciting trailer during E3 or a Direct would get many of the fans grabbing the system.

@LinkSword Yeah, I too think the new Pokémon will not be released in 2018. Seems a bit too soon because Game Freak will have to build an entirely new graphics engine for this game. Of course, they could have been working on it for a couple of years now, who knows?
There's another big system seller that could potentially be released in 2018 though: Super Smash Bros.

I could see Pokemon being released in December next year, however, that would be if they were developing it before the official announcement.
I wonder if Nintendo would use some assets from other games (like Zelda BotW) for the Pokemon game. When I say assets I mean something like trees, grass etc so they would not have to do it from scratch.

While I don't necessarily disagree with the hypothesis of the Switch outselling the Wii, using the first 10 months as a yardstick makes no sense. The Wii really hit its stride in the 2nd year, so if the Switch is able to outnumber those sales, then we'll talk.

Do hotcakes sell as well as Switch is the real question.

I'd say hotcakes would be struggling to keep up at the moment.

Even though I avoided Nintendo since the super nes until 2015 for the most part, I've always snickered a bit at the comments stating that Nintendo was in trouble. I m sure Nintendos hasn't always known that they could easily come back to being a leader of the three by revamping and upgrading the Mario and the zelda formula. They also probably knew releasing a new Mario and Zelda with every new console would increase 1st year sales. I think people confused struggling with a calculated risk and a bit of Nintendos arrogance. Nintendo has always know that their franchises would sell consoles and im sure they predicted that eventually consoles would reach a power cap. Power sells consoles and I believe Nintendo made a calculated risk by stalling their focus on power to introduce new wayang to play, motion controls. The motion control idea was a hit, so they essentially focused on developing games to utilize the tech. Here we are 10 years later, and the big n has finally gotten into the resolution game and Mario and Zelda look better than ever. Not to mention, the fact that they've decided incorporate open world game design in their two best selling ips. I'm pretty sure Odyssey and a lot of 2018 releases were planned for the u but nintendo knew after the us first year that it was a dead console and probably started preparing gameso for the switch in 2014, which may mean that a lot of exclusives are on the way. I'm sure Nintendo would have never released both Mario and Zelda in the first 7 months of Switches existence if they didn't have more big games already in development. Nintendo really has a chance to return to prominence and possibly be every gamers preferred console especially if they avoid shady dlc practices and microtransactions which are somewhat ruining the ps, xbox experience.

@Akropolon The 3DS outsold the DS in its first year, by quite a big margin too. FY sales aren't always the best indication for LT sales.

It's great if the figures make people happy

But will it outsell the Wii and DS combined (as it's a hybrid)? I know it's not a fair comparison, but that would be an amazing achievement.

I still believe Pokemon Switch was already in development way before the E3 announcement. People seem to think they just started based on the negativity in the Pokemon Direct with Pokken. And as far as I know core team for the mainline games is different from the sequels. So there's still the possibility of the usual November-December release.

@Octane @Akropolon
First year sales don't mean much for sure. But selling at a rate 20%+ above the Wii does mean a lot even if it is one year. Sales at that rate put it on track to have outsold the Wii U and Gamecube in its first full calendar year.

@Zyph It is unrealistic. In their Pokémon Direct they didn't even mention the Pokémon RPG for the Switch.. Which is weird, since a lot of people look forward to a 'real' Pokémon on a console, in this case the Switch.

And boom! They suddenly announce it at E3. No gameplay, just a real quick mention. Maybe a November release in 2019?

Amen !

To me is simple, while Fire Emblem and Metroid will be outstanding games, and all of us will buy, I still think that 2018 needs a major hit, to sell to the dumb masses.
Will be Pokémon? I don't know, probably not.
Will be Smash? Maybe, but only if Sakurai is already working on the game.
Will be Smash4? At this point I doubt. The train has left the station for another deluxe port. And Reggie said "only one Smash per generation" so probably will be 5.
Also a Pokémon Spin off may be the hit.

@skywake True. Just saying that it's impossible to predict if it'll sell 70 or 120 million at this point.

Great news for the Switch. As for Pokemon, Nov. 2018 is still very much a possibility. For one, the younger devs. amongst GF worked on the Ultra games. Also, we don't know how long it's been in development for anyway. Look at Pokemon X/Y, revealed in early 2013 and released the same year.

So getting an official reveal early next year and being released in November is still very possible.

@skywake Oh, most definitely, there's no denying that. Even though I think it's not a completely apt comparison, it does tell us the Switch is doing amazingly well. I have high hopes for the little hybrid that could.

@Saego We can't assume or expect a company to announce something by XX date regardless if fans are clamoring for a next gen Pokemon game. The surpirse announcement could've been the result of the prior outcry but does not necessarily mean it wasn't in the works before that. I'm just stating the possibilities.

I’m a Nintendo fan (as we all are), but these comparisons to the Wii are starting to irk. It’s like all analysts were on the Nintedoom trail, but now it’s all Nintendoes. They’ve got no horse in this race but have to get their two cents in

Unless I see more Switches in the wild, I’d call it a minor success. But when they’re prevalent on buses and planes and whatnot, then I’ll know the public have embraced it

All that aside, the Switch is my favourite console to date

I thought the thumbnail attached to this story was an L.A. Noire screenshot for some reason

Nintendo have released an annual Pokemon title every year for quite some time now and I can see this continuing. Therefore I reckon something Pokemon this way comes next year. Whether that’s a brand new title or a HD re-release of something we’ve seen before, not sure. But the leap from 3DS to Switch happens this year, of that I’m pretty sure

Home console: ‘one in every home’.
Personal console: ‘one in every pair of hands’.

Logically the Switch should sell better because of this fact. My nephew and niece both own a Switch so that’s two in that home. When you couple that with Nintendo’s compelling titles and XB and PS being a bit flat (maybe a lot flat) at the moment, the Switch is the must buy item at the mo.

@Zyph There are tons of possibilities, but most of them are wishful thinking, just like the one you're stating. They announced it, didn't even show a Title with a 'name not final' teaser, while they did for Prime 4.

It just looks and feels like they weren't ready for this announcement.

Why 10 months, the Switch has only been out 9 -

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November

That's 9.

Also, it's a different 9 months as Wii launched in March, struggled to keep up with demand, and just now 9 months later is in the busy holiday shopping season. Wii at months 8, 9 and 10 was in the slow selling months of June, July and August, and Nintendo likely made a ton for the holiday launch and then slowly trickled them out in the spring and summer before attempting to ramp production up the following holiday in months 12, 13 and 14.

Looking at Switch sales compared to Wii sales after 15 months would be a little more telling as we see how Switch sales do in the spring and summer. But really b/c of the difference in launch dates you are never going to get a an even chart. You almost have to wait for endvof life sales to compare the 2.

Switch sales might not be as strong next spring and summer unless and until Nintendo announces a game or date or 2, Switch has nothing after XC2 on Friday. Well Lost Sphear, but that's hardly an exciting system seller.

Switch should be fine though. We certainly aren't looking at a Wii U or GameCube situation. It might have outsold those launching only in Japan with only Splatoon 2.

@Saego Wishful thinking, huh? It seems that you're not getting my point. I do not "wish" that the game was in the works way before the announcement nor I'm saying I want it to be a 2018 release. I'm just saying that it is a possibility that it might have been. And just because they didn't announce anything doesn't mean it's already "weird". That my friend was wishful thinking that they should've announced a new core game. You're contradicting yourself. Like you said there are a lot of possibilities. I only stated one or two of 'em. In the end if you still think it "looks and feels" they were not ready then fine. You're entitled to that.

Well at my house there is two (one is mine and the other is my gf). My brother, that now lives in North Carolina is buying one also so that would be 3 among the family. Lastly, my other brother is planning to also buy one and his gf also has one.

So at the end of the day it will be 5 Switch among my family. Meanwhile, the Wii was only bought twice at home.

Pretty cool right?!

Switch has had a great software lineup for year 1. BOTW and Odyssey alone would have been impressive, but throw in MK8D, Splat2n, and 3rd party support from R*, Bethesda, and Ubisoft, and it's been an amazing first year. Hopefully Nintendo didn't blow their wad and has lots in store for next year, and we'll see continued 3rd party support. If the software keeps coming, there's no reason the hardware shouldn't keep moving

I think they're onto something but it needs at least 18-24mo to be certain. The key thing is that it's not a console and not a handheld, it's both. It creates a funky unique value to the system so that people will be happy to double dip to take a typically home experience that isn't compromised away from the TV. With people who have snubbed Nintendo entirely or mostly since as far back as the SNES through GC era since last true fair support doing games now it's a unique space to be within.

Personally I don't see it selling more than the Wii though I am more than happy to be proved wrong. I agree with the analyst that so far, this has resonated really well with dedicated gamers who love the versatility and software. I am not sure about massive crossover success which is what propelled the Wii. My parents had a Wii but can't see them getting a Switch.

That said, the industry changes a lot and I could be wrong. Even if it doesn't sell that well, I could see it being their second biggest home console.

@Linked2thaPast I completely agree! It would make me laugh when people would say before the switched launched if it fails it will be Nintendo’s last console. Ummm...do you guys even know how much money Nintendo has. I think they’re fine.

If ownership per household could be a thing, they better straighten out their DRM policies. Fast! https://youtu.be/mk7rr5sLgXE

The Wii was next to impossible to find for a good while.

WII sales during its first 10 months in the US (Nov 2006 to Aug 2007): 4.0 million
Projected Switch sales during its first 10 months in the US (Mar 2017 to Dec 2017): 5.0 million

I just came home from a trip to the US and I saw more Switch consoles than I can count in the hands of kids and grown-ups.

That's another thing to bear in mind. Switch does it's own marketing by being portable.

I think the analysts (expert and otherwise) made a few big mistakes in writing off Nintendo so completely.

Firstly they completely wrote off Nintendo's traditional strengths in the handheld market. They did this because around 2011-2012; 3DS had a slightly rocky launch, the Vita crashed and burned and smartphones were clearly going to become much more powerful and look much better than handhelds pretty quickly and be more convenient into the package. The prognosis was "well maybe Nintendo has turned the 3DS into a lukewarm success but that's the last time it'll work - there'll never be another massively successful dedicated handheld".

However in the years since the situation has subtly changed. Hidden behind the unbelievable free-to-play numbers of Candy Crush and Clash of Clans Apple has failed to properly curate the App Store to cultivate premium experiences. The App store and (even more so) Google Play are waste lands. The dream of mobile gaming becoming something genuinely worthwhile has died on the vine.

At the same time the 3DS has been more than just a little successful. It's never really been set up to be a true premium system but Nintendo has consistently found ways of exploiting new niches in the marketplace with the 3DS family and it's actually grown into one of the biggest gaming platforms ever released.

Those two things have happened largely unseen by analysts who prefer to talk about things happening the AAA space because it's of more interest to them personally and their followers. So they have a skewed view on the market to begin with - a good premium handheld with the right support was always likely to do better than they were predicting.

Secondly analysts underestimated Nintendo's development teams. Put simply Nintendo employs some exceptional game designers who have enjoyed incredible critical success throughout the Wii U era. Those games weren't all huge financial successes but they fuelled confidence in design and gave Nintendo the skills and manpower to work with HD assets.

Thirdly analysts mis-read the market after seeing demand for the PS4. Their big answer to 'why' was that Sony had the most powerful console. Despite knowing that Microsoft completely mismanaged the XBox One launch and despite knowing that there are many examples of less powerful consoles out-selling more powerful ones in the past they decided that the new paradigm is 'the most powerful and best selling console early on will win'.

Perhaps they fell into that trap because it's what dominates conversation within the online bubble or perhaps they fell into that trap because they were listening too much to the likes of EA. The vision of the future EA set out actually turns out less to be a prediction of what is likely to happen and more of what EA is desperately hoping will happen.

now if it can match the success of wii + ds, that would be out of this world.

Nintendoomed. DOA. It'll fail more than the Wii U.

I love the switch and I think it is going to beat out the SNES, but 100 million units this day and age I feel is a lofty goal. Switch did a great job of maintaining momentum through this year, but they have a good 3-4 solid years of good sales too reach those goals. I just find it hard to believe because in 2-3 years the switch will be very under-powered compared to what will be out there. Not the sole determining factor of success, but when games start being developed with Xbox One X and PS4 Pro power in mind the switch just will not be able to hang with them anymore, whereas now the switch is only slightly less powerful than vanilla XBO and PS4.

Also I really do feel the Wii era pushed away a certain sect of gamers, including myself, whereas now the switch is the system that is bringing everyone back to Nintendo. To some its almost as if Nintendo wasn't doing anything after like 2009 until they released the switch. Late-era Wii and Wii U came and went and a lot of the general public didn't even realize those systems existed.
I still have people ask me is they can play Wii U games on Wii and if 3DS games can be played on 2DS. Up until the switch Nintendo did not market themselves to the general public at all and their wonly naming strategys only hurt them more. As someone who works in retail I can attest that the general public had no clue what was what in the last generation of Nintendo consoles/games.

@MsgBoardGamer The switch is being marketed to everyone, literally everyone, young people, college aged people, adults, gamers, casual gamers, mobile gamers, the switch is trying to do what no other console before it could even dream of doing and that is appeal to basically everyone. My point is that Switch probably won't have enough power down the road to continue to get ports outside of ports from the last gen. It really shouldn't be any sort of issue until Microsoft and Sony announce their new consoles, that is when Nintendo will really have to think about releasing a more powerful iteration of the switch. But again this is speculation, this is my opinion of what the switch is and what its role in the gaming ecosystem is so take everything I, or really anyone says online with a grain of salt. We can only wait and see how the switch ends up selling this holiday and into next year as well as their ability to secure big third party titles going forward. I own the switch, I love it, but I really enjoy speculation about the game industry and having good discussion with anyone, because the gaming industry is very unpredictable and it can go any which way.

@GravyThief Around 240 million units? Don't think so. I'll (delightly) surprised if the Switch sells more than 80 MM.

@Akropolon it just has to go on target tk exceed its sales. Thats the forecast, nothing wrong with mentioning it.

The Switch is the most disapponting Nintendo console I’ve ever own. At least this far. It’s kind of lacking apps and that “fun” and “happy” Nintendo feeling. The second worst is the Wii. My favorites is the New 3DS XL and the Wii U. Yes, you heard me. The Wii U! I used it today, the only gaming console I’ve used today!

I feel like Pokémon Switch would be a more hard-hitting title if Pokémon Ultra Garbo wasn't made. Kind of hoping it releases in 2019.

@Phle Speaking of garbo, jesus that taste.

There's a big difference between it outselling the Wii in the first year or so, and doing so with lifetime sales. Let's wait and see what the situation's like after 2 years or something.

@MsgBoardGamer Of course the analysts claim that they can predict the future of the video games market. Their insight and predictions are their product - if they were to admit they can't predict what's going to happen at all then why would anyone pay them?

They have a lot of information at hand (more so than the amateurs on internet message boards) but they are influenced by bias and often that bias is surprisingly personal. They like playing AAA games - it's why they're interested in the industry to begin with and probably why they chose to pursue a career tangential to the industry - so their focus is on the development of those games and their sources are more likely to be located in AAA publishers.

Did any analyst at the start of 2017 predict that PUBG would be the biggest and most influential game of the year? Did any analyst at the start of 2016 predict that Rocket League would become huge? Did any analyst ever predict (until after the event) that Minecraft would be a cultural phenomenon? Even within the Nintendo space did any analyst have Tomodatchi Life pegged as a possible million seller on the 3DS?

There's a reason and it's not just because such successes are harder to pluck from the haystack than wondering whether this years Assassins Creed will sell more than the previous one. It's because the analysts simply don't have their eyes focused on that space.

This - in turn - causes analysts to underestimate Nintendo. Even if they had hardware parity the company simply isn't as well set up to cater to AAA publishers so they hear (and subsequently report) nothing but negative things about Nintendo from their closest and friendliest (and most important) sources within those publishers.

But Nintendo has always better placed than the analysts assume to pick up games like the next Minecraft or the next Rocket League or even the next PUBG for their consoles.

@rjejr The Switch has a decent number of 3rd party games scheduled for next year, though most are Japanese. I imagine Nintendo will publish around 10 to 12 titles next year as well since they are focusing on the Switch.