Japanese investment banking company Nomura Securities has predicted that the Nintendo Switch will sell 115.8 million units by 2023.
This bold prediction comes after a blistering first year on sale, where the hybrid console has confounded expectations across the board. Nomura also predicts that Nintendo will sell 23 million consoles in the next financial year alone.
As we all know, the Wii managed 101.63 million units as of March 31st, 2016. Nomura's prediction puts Switch above Wii, but such confidence could be down to the fact that the system effectively replaces the 3DS as well as the Wii U, which would logically result in a larger-than-usual potential install base.
Of course, one company making a prediction for the next few years doesn't mean it will happen - but Switch is certainly off to an incredible start. Do you think Nintendo can possibly sell more than 100 million units of Switch? Let us know with a comment.
Comments 89
The more, the merrier.
Wow when the last investment firm predicted 120 million units by the same period I thought they were a bit bananas!
With this being the second prediction of a similar amount maybe Nintendo are onto something!
I hope it does sell 120m. The Switch is awesome and it's great to have Nintendo back. The new CEO is doing a great job. Kudos to him
There are too many unknowns right now to make any real judgement about how well the Switch is going to sell over the next few years, one of those is what games Nintendo has up it's sleeve and whether they can continue to pump out big releases on a regular basis.
At the end of the day, it is a portable masked with "console capability" makes sense it will eventually be in the DS area, all about the cost and how much will it go down, will be £150 in less than 3 years. My guess is yes maybe with the caveat of another model!
Hm, remember last year, around this time, when the Switch was unveiled and all those guys thought Nintendo didn't have a clear message?
https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/10/analysts_weigh_in_on_the_nintendo_switch_debate
Next they'll predict that 115.8M tonnes of snow will be sold to the Inuit by March 2023. That Switch sales prediction will NEVER happen.
So this console is going to last 6 years?
Amen !
Very bold numbers, indeed. Not sure if it's realistic due to the dominant mobile space. We'll have to see at least another year from now before really committing to claims like this.
For the 3DS though, it is still an important product in the Nintendo family. It's positioned for the new Nintendo customer and for the younger gamers. I predicted as much a while back. But a recent TIME article backed me up. http://time.com/5000167/nintendo-switch-super-mario-odyssey/
Reggie says: "The Nintendo Switch, being a system that’s been in the marketplace now only seven months, certainly that’s a system that our teams will continue to develop for and bring fantastic new experiences. We have to do that to keep driving that platform forward. We view the 3DS as a very important part of our lineup, but really targeted against a different consumer. That product is really focused against new consumers in the Nintendo family, [such as] five, six, seven or 10-year olds [who want] their own dedicated system. And a system [on which] they can play all of these great games. So it’s going to have a different focus: entry consumers and consumers looking for a little bit more value. So that’s how they’re differentiated. There will be new games for the 3DS line, so we’re not in any way stopping our activity for that platform. But it’s just focused on a different type of consumer."
Taking that with a grain of salt, though, we can probably expect more games like Mario Party top 100 and remakes like Mario and Luigi. No more major series since those main titles have already come out on the system. Maybe the 3DS will top 75 million by its end.
I will do my part to help meet this goal and personally buy 5 million Switch units.
If the switch’s sells stay consistent, and a notably expected boost from the holidays, I expect it to reach 10-11million by January. As for 2023? I think 65million is a reasonable prediction
The future is unknown, I'm sticking with a conservative prediction of 60-80 million units; however if specific titles appear and features added it has the potential to reach great numbers.
Check back in 2023.
@FX102A the good thing for Nintendo is that your conservative 60-80m would have been on the "wildly optimistic" side only 6 months ago.
Personally, I've always been sure that the Switch would be a success (by which I mean 50m or more in it's lifetime)
Don't forget iterations. Upgraded hardware like "New Nintendo Switch" (lol). I am sure it's already in development, and all will count toward the goal. Meaning that not only will there be several Switches per household (like Nintendo wants to place it), but probably more than one sold unit to the average fan (I know I will be upgrading for sure, I and I'm certainly not the only one...).
I think they're (and this is a cop out) 50/50 on it. It will come into play with just a few key things.
DO that, yes, definitely it would crack 100M when you figure the entire handheld is built modular with pop 'n swap parts inside. They can do as they do with any off the line tablet or modern pc in a box console — update the parts, retain the core name and compatibility with games.
I’ve previously posted I feel I live on a Nintendo island surrounded by family Xboxes and PlayStations. But in the past month two family members have set their PlayStation controllers down and bought a Switch. I feel the island is getting bigger.
Hmmm, glad I don't have my money invested with Nomura Securities - though I'm sure they are advertising some amazing returns...
Doubtful. I think 60 - 70 million by then is more reasonable, and nothing to be upset about either.
Whatever happened to the Switch being D.O.A,or that it has no games and will flop harder than Wii U and will be Nintendo's last console before going 3rd party? There were quite a few predicting that fate for it round here and even more so across other sites like Eurogamer and GameSpot where most of the top rated comments were predicting total failure. Now the Switch may not come close to shifting 115m but the very fact that analysts are predicting it to shows how unbelievably far off the mark these folk were.
It's too soon. The Switch has already accrued a respectable and varied library in the first 9 months of its life alone (minus the stains with only a small fraction of the game's data on cartridge), so there's certainly a lot of promise, but I'm more interested to see what developers have in store for 2018 while momentum remains high.
Next year will be a better indication of how well the Switch will perform in the long-term.
@Aaron09 I think the holiday season will be much stronger (assuming stock is around). If you look at 3DS sales it is not uncommon for Q3 to outsell the rest of the year combined.
I would expect 7m Switch to sell between 30 Sep and January 1st.
@OorWullie the DOA predictions after the January reveal keep me warm inside. So many people were so blinkered.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Those are just investors talk. A year ago different analysts predicted oil prices both at 20$ and at 100$, even the most reserved gave the corridor of 30-60$. This is a 6 year-long prediction, so it's about as accurate as tarot reading. It cannot mean anything more than "stuff is selling well, I am hopeful, you need to invest".
@Krull
Hahaha. My thoughts exactly.
Wow. I wanna make a prediction. It will sell 255 million.
Edit. Or maybe 309 million
I'm not convinced. I'm still saying the same as I did before launch, which is that if it gets to 3DS numbers (70 million plus) that's a phenomenal result, especially coming off the back of the Wii U failure. It means they've established a very strong niche in the face of competition from MS/Sony on one side and mobile gaming on the other and once their whole library is concentrated into one ecosystem, will rebuild consumer trust in Nintendo.
I think it will do well but I am not sure about it exceeding the Wii. I guess the real test will be if, at about yeah to 18 months anniversary of the launch if mainstream gamers or non gamers are showing an interest and know the branding. That is what will make it a Wii smash. The tech is good enough though so best of luck. I think it will do really well.
@JamesR Oh really? Wow I didn’t realize it was that strong! And I’m guessing Odyssey will make it stronger
@NewAdvent While I think 115 million is a good bit overzealous, I think 60 million is underballing it. Honestly 75-90 million life time sales seems much more realistic. More so as the 3DS gets phased out and we get a Switch Pro and a Switch Lite in the coming years.
Lack of big titles next year? Try Pokemon, Kirby, Fire Emblem and Metroid. And that is just what's been talked about thus far.
@NewAdvent I agree that 60m lifetime is more realistic. Especially when Sony will bring out the PS5 by about 2020, and the Switch will be outdated. Unless Nintendo does a Switch Pro/Switch X. Hahahaha
One thing I've noticed is that these various analysts keep raising their predictions,they're never scaling them back. They can obviously see from data they have that interest and awareness in the Switch is trending upwards. History shows that it's usually in the second year of a console's life that it really takes off and with the way Nintendo have delivered in its first year, I think it's safe to say the Switch's best years are still ahead of it.
@NewAdvent there will be a huge drop off in January due to a lack of Christmas.
By 2023, there will be Switch XL and Switch Mini. The current Switch will look like that silver phat frankenstein DS when compared to newer models.
@NewAdvent A temporary slow down isn't unlikely. But Nintendo has thus far been very good with this tempo of at least 1-2 significant releases each month. We will probably get a Nintendo Direct at the end of the year talking about the first few months of 2018.
@NewAdvent
"sales will slow drastically between New Years and easter"
Of course. That's like predicting Christmas will be on December 25th. However, we know there are plenty of big names coming and the potential for plenty more-we didn't know about several Switch games that landed in 2017 this time last year.
@Savino
Ah, you bought an ACME Random Prediction Generator as well?
Now see, I wanna see the Switch succeed but I doubt it'll cross 100mil let alone 115. But if it does happen good for everyone
@SLIGEACH_EIRE what if they manage to properly enter China market (something that no console managed before)? If that happens you end having another Wii on your hands with the marketing simple growing exponentially
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Always Mr. Positive, aren't you. Your constant negativity has gotten very old. Maybe the Switch will sell that many, maybe it wont, but to say it NEVER will is simply stupid. Of course the Switch will most likely go through multiple revisions over the next several years and if it does in the end sell 120 million units combined, you'd just say that your NEVER comment was only for the original model.
I challenge you to only post upbeat positive comments for one day...do you think you're capable of that?!?
Switch is doomed. R.I.P Nintendo.
115.8 million? Who predicts a figure like that?
"Oh yeah, we're pretty sure it'll top 115m, but no way it'll hit 116m!"
Rofl. That would be incredible!
If, and only if, Nintendo actually pushes forward with this idea that Switch replaces both the WiiU and the 3DS, I can actually see it happen. However, I really think they need to release a cheaper, smaller, less complete build of the Switch in order to successfully replace the 3DS. Most parents aren't going to buy a $300+ console for their 6 year old to wreck. Maybe we'll see a Pocket Switch in the next year or two?
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Ofcourse those sales "will NEVER happen". We don't want to upset you. Doctor said to always say "YES" to you.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE lol at the hate you get for it
I think it might exceed these numbers in five years even, but we'll see.
First stop is 10 million in a year, which I went on record with before official launch. That one is going great
people buying a switch in 2023 are the ones still buying 3ds stuff today...
@erv It won't have a problem reaching 10 million through Christmas. I can see it doing well for 2 years but after that I'm not so sure. To reach the target of 115.8 million it needs to sell on average 20 million units for the next 5 years after this fiscal year. That's just not sustainable, especially when it gets into the second half of its life cycle. People need to think about the enormity of that figure. It's 50 million more than what the 3DS has sold in all its different variations in over 6 and a half years.
Seems like a stretch to me. Maybe they know something we don't. You think Nintendo will take the same approach with the Switch as they did with the DS and 3DS? Offering different skus?
I'm still leaning toward 80-90 million units sold, which is a phenomenal result after a few terrible years of the Wii U being a disaster and mobile phones chewing away at the 3DS's dedicated handheld gaming market
With that being said, if the Switch actually sells 23 million units in the next fiscal years, then selling 115 million units LTD is not out of the question and will more than likely happen.
@OorWullie The other one I liked was that they have no gameplan after Zelda.
Anyway it will never reach 115 million units. There's a guy in some backwater in Ireland who won't buy it so that's proof enough.
That's very optimistic. The Switch is doing very well, but I can't see it getting close to that number. Even the Wii hasn't hit that estimate.
That’s really optimistic. It’s hard to predict what will happen 6 years in the future with so many variables. I will say that there was a time 60 mill would have been a great success. And it’s intersting that everyone is accepting that as a foregone conclusion.
If someone made me gamble, aka invest in future stock, I would say 85-95 is where I think the Switch hits. And that is nothing to be ashamed of.
I don't doubt it one bit. Switch is the future of gaming, in my point of view.
People saying "That'll never happen!" and then proceeding to rattle off figures they put 10 seconds of thought into, versus actual industry analysts doing actual analysis as part of actual reports 😂
@MsgBoardGamer Oh it was brilliant round here during those days...
"If it's not at least the power of the Xbox it's DOA..."
"Just show us what is already Nintendo!"
"If the chip isn't this many nanometers it's going to fail..."
Pretty much this ad nauseum. Everyone was an authority on what each chipset does, the exact specification that guarantees sales, how they should throw money at third parties for "AAA" games, the list goes on.
Those numbers make me feel light headed. Very lofty and ambitious. While I'd prefer to be more conservative, I hope these forecasts come true!
Very ambitious numbers, but if Nintendo can keep up their current momentum, I wouldn't say it's impossible.
Seems a bit bonkers to predict lifetime sales BEFORE seeing how the Switch performs over its first holiday season. Granted, I think it will do great, but c'mon, there is no where to go but down with predictions like this (and the 18 mil in first years sales one, remember that ?!?)
I love how most people on here have never invested in anything in their life, yet always act as if they’re experts in it.
Because you know, the people who make such predictions professionally got to those high paying jobs by making bad projections?
Always a good laugh guys...always.
@Amsterdamsters I probably wouldn't bet on him doing so, let alone be able to keep it up for that long. I'm saving this latest dumb comment of his for future ridicule...
And save yourself the trouble: some people will never learn. It's a waste of your precious energy.
I think that it can happen. Is all on Nintendo's part to blow this thing to the sky and beyond. Keep giving us amazing exclusives and we will be fine.
@Agent721 Indeed. Especially the most notorious ones...
As an ACTUAL sales & marketing professional (20+ yrs exp), and someone who considers the Wall Street Journal a source that's most certainly not to be taken all that lightly, I'd say that this prediction is definitely possible.
Contrary to Nintendo's message, a lot of gamers and even developers/publishers are seeing the Switch as a pure handheld, so if you take into account that most of the previous/current 3DS/2DS owners might very well have or buy a Switch, then you'd already have well over 60 million Switches sold. (maybe even close to 70, with current numbers)
Add to that the 13 million Wii U owners makes 73, and thanks to a lot of new adopters as well, current upgraded sales projections per quarter make up for the rest, putting the end of life sales figures easily into the 100 million.
Of course, this is all provided that Nintendo can keep the current momentum going, so in practice, that is indeed going to be a hard nut to crack, but tough to crack doesn't mean un-crackable.
So, in the end, that would mean that it is going to be pretty difficult, but definitely not impossible, and most certainly not something that can "NEVER" happen, but yeah, armchair experts, what are you gonna do...
If anything, it is a goal that Nintendo as a company should strife for, as it would most certainly mean them getting a hefty profit out of it (something any sane company should aim for), and it would also mean them being well and truly back in the game...
@Slug_Geek_Ire Don't forget to state your opinion as fact, good sir.
@ThanosReXXX
Well said. It’s up to Nintendo to cash in and keep this going. That prediction is out of the norm but not impossible and certainly doable with the correct execution. I think everyone assumes the Switch will sell with handheld plus home console totals wrapped into 1 huge sales ramp up.
I work as a senior underwriter for a PE firm, all real estate related, for now 13 years and have invested my own money in the markets for 20 years. And Ive been a gamer since I was 6 years old and got Octopus Game & Watch in 1982.
Experience in both the product and via investing matters greatly when making investments in this industry and wether it’s this or real estate, many of the same skills transfer over.
Hopefully the Big N will continue to deliver.
Cheers!
@Slug_Geek_Ire
LOL!!
I'd like to remind everyone that one/two months before the Switch's launch, there were analytical firms who predicted the Switch would struggle to cross 5 million units sold globally by the end of 2017.
Oh, how things have changed...
@Slug_Geek_Ire
Amazing
@Agent721 "many of the same skills transfer over"
Absolutely true. I've even been able to use my sales skills in my private life...
@ThanosReXXX
Ba da bump thok! LOL!
@Agent721 Been gaming since the age of 5, on a Pong machine connected to a black & white portable TV, after that Atari 2600 and so on, all witnessed and played it as it happened.
Career-wise, I've worked mostly for HP (Hewlett Packard) and Symantec, ran a sales team of 5 agents. Nowadays, I'm my own boss, but NetApp contacted me via LinkedIn a couple of weeks ago with a seriously interesting offer, so now I'm in talks with them and I'm seriously reconsidering my current path...
@ThanosReXXX
Good for you! Good luck on whatever comes next.
@Agent721 Thanks. Nothing is sure in life though, isn't it? Still a couple more interview rounds to go, and obviously, I'm not the only one they head-hunted...
60 million is my current prediction.
@ThanosReXXX
I'm sure...that's the beauty of Linked In, easy to find candidates.
@Agent721 The beauty, and the curse...
I love it; when these same investment firms and analysts are predicting doom and gloom for Nintendo, all you NDFers are up in arms about what "fools" they are and they don't know anything about what they're predicting.
But now that they have good things to say in regards to Nintendo, you're all in on them.
If Tencent get the china distribution deal it will top 100 million in 2.5 years. Nintendo is the only console maker at the moment that produce first party games that fit with china's view of social responsibility talk is 50/50 chance of it getting approval.
I hope as Sony release PS5 and MS release XBox2, Nintendo release Switch2 (and be totally backwards compatible.)
@masterLEON
And you are the expert. 😞
Let's see if it lasts 6 years this time around to begin with.
To me, those numbers seem pretty astronomical unless they're going to tap into previously untapped markets (i.e. other asian nations most likely). Currently I think it's mainly hype that's selling the thing. But that only gets you so far. We'll see.
I hope it does well of course, and I hope we'll see plenty of great software. I'm dying to play Super Mario Odyssey, but there isn't enough incentive to buy the system right now, especially at this price point.
@ThanosReXXX
That's some pretty funky logic though. You can't quite compare the 3DS to the Switch, as it has double the price point (sure, the 3DS was overpriced on launch but luckily came down quick), I don't see multiple Switch consoles in a single household, and I think NoA has generally failed give a good answer to the "is it a console or a portable?" question. Plenty of people won't see this as a "replacement" for their 3DS. If for one don't see me carrying it along as a handheld, that thing is HUGE! It definitely won't fit in my bag I take to work. And younger people might not be able to afford one. Moreover, I think it might also be a bit of a stretch to think that 100% of all Wii owners will buy a Switch. If anything, people might be extra cautious after getting burned once already (to be clear: I liked the Wii U for the relatively low price I bought it at).
If Nintendo can do another Zelda, Animal Crossings, A 2D Mario, 2 Pokemons, Another Splatoon, Luigis Mansion, A Smash Deluxe then a new Smash, Get Dragon Quest soon, Donkey Kong. Pikmin 4, and a couple of new fresh franchises ..it just might reach 100 million
@TheGameSquid
Ahhh...the classic "the Switch is only selling due to (random buzzword)" mantra.
It can't possibly be because the Switch is an appealing and marketable product with a growing library of quality software??
Nah...It's only because of "hype."
@Savino
Haha, it was just the precision of it, and the shortness of the Switch's life in it that took me by surprise.
@TheGameSquid
You're too bogged down in looking for reasons as to why it's sold because you're extrapolating the reasons you don't like it onto a wider audience. In reality it's actually pretty simple. It's an appealing concept, well-marketed and with a lot of good software.
It will continue to do well as soon it will be the only system with new Nintendo software on it. Then between price drops and possible different form factors it will replace 3DS and Wii U.
@BensonUii We saw the press pokemon (mainline RPG) has moved to switch development so the 3DS is just out of time.
@Juma009 I totally agree with you,maybe a new Mario kart aswell will definitely reach 80-100
@gatorboi352 mean contrary to your useless comment people here are actually discussing the merits of this prediction, some agreeing and others disagreeing, both with arguments. On the other side there's trolls like yourself who's vocabulary doesn't extend beyond NDF. You should move to Ireland, there's company for you there
@gortsi no thanks, that dude is a bit off his rocker. I just call it like a see it. I state facts.
@gatorboi352 nothing factual about what you said here. Debate their prediction. If you disagree, tell us why. Plenty of people who you'd classify as NDF has repeatedly criticized Nintendo here, but they always use arguments, I don't exactly see that from your side except that one time you mentioned the lack of racing games on the Wii U, which was indeed a fact.
That's definitely a somewhat bold prediction - and a rather precise, i would say - would have been interesting to listen to there discussion: "It could only sell 115,7 Million!" "No way!"
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