Nintendo's Share Value Jumps Following Report of Switch Manufacturing Being Doubled

Nintendo stockholders are a very fickle group.

And there you go, that's why they made that 16 million sales in a year announcement. Wasn't their timing just coincidentally perfect? Stock market now closed for the weekend. Don't think it'll happen. If it reaches 10 million, I'll be amazed barring a big price cut or some major surprise software announcements. Don't think they'll have 16 million produced either. They can ramp up or decrease production as they see the demand.

Time and time again, Nintendo had big hardware predictions for Wii U and 3DS. We all knew it was madness and later in the year they had to cut those forecasts. This is just 1 example.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-01-17-nintendo-slashes-wii-u-forecast-from-9m-to-2-8m

I hope they're manufacturing some Poochy themed Joy-Cons along with those 14 million new Switches. =P

Errm yeah what @JHDK said

The stock has been rising ever since the Switch came out ...I hope for the best.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE WSJ reported this.. Not Nintendo, bear in mind if it's false news, share price will fall back again....
I actually don't think it's false news. Nintendo have a reputation for honest sales reporting....

I like the switch. I unfortunately think they will just match wii u lifetime sales. Maybe 15 mil. Optimistically, 25 mil lifetime sales.

And there you go, it's as easy as that: positive news - shares rise, negative news - shares fall. It certainly isn't rocket science, people.

And that should also tell you that these stock market indications mean absolutely NOTHING, because it's just people panicking or hyping. Stock holders seem to be knowledgeable people, but in the end, they're only human, just like you and me...

@sillygostly Yes.

Maybe this means I can finally get one at the actual price instead of getting one from a scalper for like 700 dollars.

Oh I thought that investors hate it when Nintendo does things that make them money? Stock always plummeted everytime Nintendo had a reveal or released a mobile app.

It shows confidence in the product, so investors like that. The downside is any further data that suggests those projections aren't being met will then affect investor confidence.

May be, just may be, Nintendo might actually sell that many.
May be they won't (red) maybe they will (black)

It's a red or black type of bet.
Me, I'm putting everything on black.

And there lies the gamble.

@MegaMari0 Let's go two E3's then make a decision on how it will sell lifetime.

Now if nintendo use the BOTW game engine to create a full world Pokemon and Animal Crossing game as a Switch exclusive (and maybe 3DS/2DS spin offs where data can be used in Switch version) then they will be onto a winner...

@SLIGEACH_EIRE I strongly believe Mario alone can push 5 million units and hopefully by it's launch Nintendo already has about 5 million. So there's your 10 million in 9 months. Will it happen remains to be seen.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE last I checked 3 DS is still doing good lol

@KiWiiU_Freek I say Nintendo is back.

"Nintendo plans to manufacture 16 million or more Switch consoles in the year starting April 1, up from an initial plan for eight million." Metroid Switch confirmed!?

That would be something.. the Switch selling more in under 2 years than Wii U in 4

@ThanosReXXX A wise finance prof once told me, with great pow- naw I'm just poking fun just get a dart board and some monkeys if you want to predict the market haha.

Investors also like sales figures too, doubling production of Switch is good.

How come Nintendo never did this with the Nes Classic?

@marck13 I was about to roll my eyes, but the last game we heard from Retro was back in 2014...

@Pj1 They claimed that one of the parts used in the NES mini is hard to come by.

Did they actually announce that they expected the Switch to sell 16 million units? As far as I know, they just said they were ramping up production, which is not a bad thing. It would be foolish of them to expect to sell through 16 million, but it is not foolish of them to have more units to sell. We've complained about poor Nintendo stock on various items for years, so having more Switch units on the shelves for people to just walk into the store and buy is a good thing - especially during the holiday season. That doesn't necessarily mean that Nintendo expects to sell out of them.

@KiWiiU_Freek
Always bet on black. Even Nintendo can't ruin that tried and true adage.

Again, the key to gambling is knowing when you have a winning hand. You always double down when you do. Maximize your success. Right now it APPEARS the Switch is a winning hand, how can anyone criticize Nintendo doubling down? Win or lose, you bet o yourself.

If they do manage to Sell 16 million Switch in a little over a year......the 3DS will be left behind and all efforts will be put into the Switch.

So far there seems to be a good buzz around the Switch.....a lot of non Nintendo people and non gamers I know are talking about it which is very different then the Wii U.

Of course stock value has little to do with real life and as soon as something negative is thought.....it will drop down again. Any one with stock in Nintendo.....sell now...buy again when it drops around the investors meetings.....then sell again when it raises around E3

Announce a big main series Pokémon game coming this year, and that'll be your 16 million units right there.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE
Of the last 10 console launches the median level of sales for the first 12 months is ~10mill. I think you're being overly pessimistic there saying that 10mill would "amaze" you. And as others have noted Nintendo didn't announce this, the WSJ reported it based on sources.

16mill units shipped would be in-line with the numbers the Wii, 3DS, PS4 and PSP moved in the first full year. It'd be good and it is optimistic but lets not kid ourselves here, these numbers are not that outlandish. Especially given how much early momentum they have.

Dang. I shoulda bought a stock.

Shoulda bought some stock. 😒

Did they ramp up production with a re-designed Joycon?
Did they ramp up production with a re-designed dock?
... or should I keep waiting?

Also, if they get BG&E 2 exclusive, they will sell all those units. Even if they sell them all to me.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE That was a sales forecast, this is a production figure. Very different numbers. Sales forecast is a pie in the sky number you pull out of a hat to make investors feel good about how successful you expect your product to be with nothing to back it up. Production plans are figures you're actively lining up contracts and committing hard resources to. This number means a lot more than those sales forecasts did. (and 3DS WAS a big success.) WiiU was the only one that majorly failed to live up to massively unrealistic projections.

@Ernest_The_Crab Allow me to finish that for you:
With great power, comes great fickleness/insanity/pompous-@ss-ness...

Companies don't increase production unless they plan to sell those within a certain time line, normally a fiscal year. Also, keep in mind mario comes this year and there's still the holiday season.

I would imagine more software announcements will come from a nintendo direct at E3 as well.

As for stocks and investments, speaking as someone who invests often in stocks a day does fairly well in the market, I would say it's too early to say. Obviously buying now is better because if investors confidence truly goes up then you get in at a lower price. But with technology companies this is always a gamble. Look at AMD, they recently announced their new items and though prices are slightly up on shares, it wasn't anything drastic like what happened with Nvidia shares over the last year. Investors are not so much fickle as they look at two things, long term growth potential and stability and/or short term profit. Nintendo being as old a company as they are, I wouldn't expect massive swings in Stock price. It could happen, but with more stable veteran companies it's not as likely. Last, don't confuse stock prices with company stability. There are many companies doing very well in the market but lose share price. It's not necessarily a reflection of company health, and many times is a multitude of various factors. Look at Disney...their shares dropped over the last year, but when you look at acquisitions between Star wars and Marvel, and blockbuster movies over the last 5 years, plus attractions and other lines, Disney is in no way unstable.

UP 4.5% in USA today!

@NEStalgia though I agree with the point your making, sales forecasts are not exactly made up. There is a certain level of scientific approach to those number which accounts for demand, market, potential customers, etc to derive a number. It's not that the Wii U projections was poor, but the activities that needed to occur to make those projections reality did not happen (proper advertising, explaining the product, software support, etc).

To make sales forecast a reality though, available products (supply) has to align. I'm not sure what Nintendo original forecast for the Switch was. So doubling production is either normal to now meet those forecasts or is an increase (with possible revised forecasts) to meet unexpected demand.

Bottom line, if you project to sell 12M units and only make 8M, you've already ensured you will not meet your forecast

Probably be back down again on Monday. Markets are always up then down then up,

@markie7235 On paper, yes, sales forecasts are supposed to be based on statistics. Too often it doesn't really happen that way, and the WiiU forecasts back at the start were either a bold lie directly [insert hand gesture] to the shareholders, or Nintendo really was clueless as to their own position. I've always believed they knew exactly where they were and they were stringing shareholders along with numbers so ridiculous only the truly clueless could have believed them.

I don't know that we've heard real sales projections on Switch so far beyond the vague long-term "could sell Wii-like numbers" quote, but unlike pie in the sky sales forecasts, this article isn't talking sales forecasts, but hard commitments on production. Sligeach was comparing this to past sales forecasts that fell short. Making 16m units in the year, from a company like Nintendo that virtually always shorts available inventory to bare minimum or below implies they intend to sell 16m and likely anticipate demand that will go partly unfulfilled for 20m because Nintendo plays very close to the margin, historically.

Hopefully another 16 Millions of Nintendo Switch to be sold has less issues or better No issues at all.

I feel bad for the people who bought the Nintendo Switch for $400+ dollars on Ebay

Anyone who has played Market Crashers on the 3DS outta know something like this would happen.

I think the Switch is going to do really well. I have a friend who normally just plays Playstation interested in getting one. Hopefully I can find one soon (Been trying since launch)!

So let's see... "Can" Nintendo sell through 16mil this year? I don't know, I have no crystal ball, but they would have to start by doing it off the backs of these games:

1) Zelda:BotW (Candidate for GotY, hype is steady currently, and will have DLC throughout the year to extend life)
2) Splatoon 2 ("Good", "fun", "online" game that can move units with its replayability. Splatoon has a following now and good hype carryover from the first game. It's one of a handful of games that helped move a third of Wii U's, and that was a "dead/dying" system)
3) MK8D ("Good", "fun", "online" game that can move units with its replayability. MK series needs no intro. This will be one to watch as not all previous owners will be on board with rebuying the enhanced port. But the hype for MK and specifically MK8 remains, and those that either never took the plunge with MK8 or love MK in general will be scooping up copies no doubt)
4) Super Mario Odyssey (Mario... moves systems... Period. And people have been starved for a new 3D Mario adventure in the vein of SM64 and SMG before it for 1 system generation. Combined with the tried and true holiday release, everyone from kids to big kids will be buying this one)

I'm gonna be very gentle and say that's potentially 10mil systems right there, so I see no reason why 6mil more can't be sold with other games such as Fire Emblem Warriors, other titles I can't even list, and of course, if Nintendo has a good E3 with hidden surprises, that can factor into units sold as well. Let's meet back up in a year

PS4 sold 13.5 million units in its first full year (holiday 2013-October 2014). If Nintendo can come anywhere near that it would be huge.

The big hurdle for Nintendo is getting enough sales to get third-party AAA support. The Wii U had a death spiral, where poor initial sales -> third-parties dropped the console -> less games -> less sales.

Right now the situation for new titles or ports of recent titles from AAA developers is still pretty dismal. EA has announced FIFA 18, which is new but won't be out for a long time. Uibsoft has Just Dance, which is new, and Steep, which is from last year, Activision has Skylanders, which is from last year. Squeenix is technically AAA, and has announced Dragon Quest, but that only sells in Japan. No Kingdom Hearts or Final Fantasy. And there's not much else from AAA, just indies.

Looks like a good time to sell that stock I have in Nintendo...

@MegaMari0 Switch won't surpass WiiU sales? OK. I would take that bet any day, every day. Glad you're not my investor. Goodness...

And then tomorrow Reggie makes an announcement but slightly messes up his delivery. Stocks plummet by 20%.

@Spiders look, I want it to succeed. I want it to sell better than either sony or Microsoft. As generations go on, kids are being raised on other gaming devices. I'm raising my kid on nintendo but I see friends who let their game on smart devices. The perceived value isn't there for parents like me. It's a combination of factors that make me believe they will make it to wii u lifetime sales. On the optimistic side, GameCube levels. On the delusional side, wii level. Just an opinion dude

At 300 dollars there's a ton of kids that didn't get their switch yet so better anticipate early and a couple new surprises.no more developments for 3ds this is a unified platform.skyrim,FIFA 18 donkey kong and so many more that would be developed for 1 console so good luck in putting Nintendo down,all in or all out

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Nintendo didn't make the announcement, and it's about extra production, not Wii U wishful thinking.

@TheLobster Well you'd need to get more info, while it feels like there might be a stock correction coming soon, that may not be the case while there is only positive news.

@NEStalgia Even if they don't sell anywhere near 16 m they don't have to ship them all though, so they can still play close to the margins.

He who dares Rodders. He who dares.

@MegaMari0 I get what you're saying, but can you really not look past your own perspective? The obvious: Wii U is a really low bar, and the fact is Switch is going to gobble up the 3DS/Vita market in Japan over the next couple of years, which in turn will get Japanese devs to put their "AAA" goods onto Switch and increase the base abroad. Also bear in mind that both Iwata and Kimishima have described Switch as a device in a family of devices with a shared OS and unified development codebase. If this bears out, the metric for success for Switch by numbers alone will not be a good metric for comaprison to Wii, 3DS, GCN, etc.

I do agree, however, that it might not be the most family-friendly, kid-friendly system until it hits a handheld price-point, but having it I would say it's an incredibly fun system for people who play games together. As Tycho from Penny Arcade put it, it can be shared like a snack, and that is something completely new.

@ballistic90
Maybe I was right.. ?

@marck13 you went back to a post from about 4 months ago to say that?

@ballistic90
Putting it like that sounds like I got some serious personality issues haha
I am frequently reading here and not writing often, so I have logged in yesterday and simply never noticed what you wrote. My comment was meant in a very playful way - just being happy that Metroid 4 is really coming cheerz