Topic: Why Would Wii U Owners Be Burned if NX Home Console Launches In 2016?

@rallydefault: yes, that part was my opinion. I felt like I stated that by saying "The only way I see"

I think people are a bit confused by my idea that Nintendo needs to stick to the Half-Gen systems. I don't mean Nintendo should release a new system at the same time as Microsoft and Sony, and release another half way through. I mean Nintendo should always release between Microsoft and Sony generations. Xbox One/PS4 release, 4 years later NX releases, 4 years later Xbox Two/PS5, 4 years later NX 2, etc.

For Nintendo to "normalize" after a shortened lifespan would mean another shortened lifespan. They could work around it in some ways, such as being the last console to release to help ease the pain of a shortened lifespan. However, I don't think it is smart for them to put themselves in that position. Replacing the Wii U won't fix Nintendo's issues, Nintendo has a lot of things to work out before they take on another system launch... are they really ready for it?

_{They could be ready for a Micro-Console lol}

He said that. The alleged source did not.

The source supposedly listed some games coming to Wii U and 3DS. A list which was basically confirmed titles, Pokemon and a few random codenames. Even if we trust it we don't know if it's the full list. He then claims to have asked about NX and was shut down. Was only told that it would launch alongside a Zelda game.

From there it was 100% opinion regardless of whether you believe him. He said the NX would be a home console because in his opinion the Wii U needed replacing. He used the existence of Pokemon as evidence. He said it was 2016 just because. He then said the Zelda must be Zelda U because it was a home console in 2016 and they wouldn't have time for anything else big enough.

That's a lot of speculation for a source that didn't say much of anything!

Whether it's handheld or console one thing is for sure...

I just want my damn pikmin 4! Maybe I wouldn't be so hard on Nintendo if they just gave me that game to shut me up for a little while >.<

I've had a thought. So we all know WIIU is pretty much done. Yet I know people STILL who don't know what a WIIU is. There really has been no decent advertising for it at all! In the whole of its lifespan!
Now correct me if I'm wrong, Pokken tournament (or whatever it's called) is coming out very soon! There are millions and millions of pokemon players out there so this must be a big deal! It must be a big deal as there was an advert in the freekin superbowl for it! So its a game that's actually pushed the WIIU out there in the biggest way since its launch!
Now we speak of system selling games.
Surely with all the millions of pokemon players out there, this is a must have game, and we all no that those players probably don't own a WIIU (due to the poor sales).
So is there a chance that this game will shift units ? A lot of units?
If that happens all these people will be kind of forced into buying essentially a dead console!
This could be bad right?
Should they have waited for NX this game?

@DefHalan: I knew what you meant about the half-gen consoles. I still think they can avoid it.

If NX launches this year, the Xbox One and PS4 will have been on the market for three years (since 2013). Now, Microsoft and Sony keep saying they want longer console generations. To try and push for five more years from their current boxes wouldn't be totally radical. That would give the NX five years, pretty darn close to a typical console cycle, to establish itself.

You even can work in the possibility of waiting an extra year to launch into the next gen, giving the NX a respectable lifespan of six years. The PS3 did it by launching in 2006 after the Xbox 360 was already out for a year.

@rallydefault: Sony and Microsoft aren't going to wait another 5 years years. Their consoles are relatively weaker than the PS3 and 360 for their time and we're already starting see games underperforming. They can say whatever they want, but we'll be seeing new hardware from those companies sooner than you think.

Reminds me of when Microsoft said that the 360 was halfway through its lifespan in 2011 and was there to stay for another 6 years; 2 years later they released the Xbox One. Of course they want you to think that their consoles are going to last a decade, but they won't.
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Xbox-360-Is-Halfway-Through-It...

@Octane: Alternatively you could argue that the Wii U was a potential threat to both Microsoft and Sony (the Wii was) hence they decided to release their next gen consoles earlier than planned. Of course that theory ends in the same result, namely the earlier the NX is released the more likely Microsoft and Sony are going to release their consoles early.

@Octane: Yea, I've seen articles like that. It happened once, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen again. I don't know, man. Sony, especially, will not be looking to move on from the PS4 ANYTIME soon. That thing is printing money for them, and they can continue to ride that wave for a good, long while.

So I'm gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you. I think Microsoft and Sony are going to squeeze a couple/few more years out of these boxes than they normally would.

@rallydefault: but that really just comes down to your opinion. We don't really know what the big 3 are thinking, I just have a different opinion than you.

@DefHalan: Yep! My opinion and your opinion and @Octane's opinion. Absolutely.

@rallydefault: Based on performance? I don't think they're going to last that long. Based on sales? It depends; Xbox One isn't going to sell PS4 numbers, we all know that by now. We have to wait and see it Microsoft releases another Xbox, if they do, I don't think they'll ''ride the wave'' for as long as they can, because that wave is very small and isn't going to bring them very far. The PS4? Unless the PSVR is a success, I think we're in its peak year. Software and hardware sales will peak and I think we'll start to see a decline in 2017. Late 2018 may be too early, but by 2019 I think the chances are high that we're going to see the PS5. That's 6 years; the PS4 isn't going to last much longer than that. 4K displays will be widely available by that point for a decent price and if Sony isn't releasing a PS5, Microsoft probably will do something instead.

Remember that economic recession was also one of the reasons why last generation took a little longer than previous generations. Add the fact that the PS3 and 360 were more future-proof than the Xbox One and PS4, and I'm not sure we're going to see a repeat of last generation.

@Octane: Eh, you're not accounting for every generation's ability to squeeze power out of the boxes that nobody would think possible. Look at something like Kameo on the 360 and then Watchdogs or Rise of the Tomb Raider - to anyone who didn't know better, it could be an entire generational leap in terms of assumed power behind those graphics. Same thing goes on PS3 - original Uncharted (woof - those graphics lol) to something like God of War Ascension. I mean, holy cow. The differences are insane.

The one leg you have to stand on is the rise of 4k TVs. And that depends on A LOT. People (including me) were saying they would be affordable this last holiday season - no dice, really. Next holiday season? Hopefully (I want one - lol), but still no guarantee. Even most PC master race peeps don't game in 4k yet. My point is that next to NOTHING in the gaming space is 4k, and it's not even looking poised for it in the next couple years. Your estimate of 2019 is decent, but with the rate we're going, and to then account for actual, real-world adoption rates of the tech, I'd say 2020-2021 would be a safer bet for Microsoft/Sony to be FORCED to upgrade their boxes for it. And that would account for a 7-8 year generation, which is what I think we're going to get.

@Octane: @rallydefault: @DefHalan:
I think the PS4 will be around for a while, the Wii U will be replaced before it and that could be soon but I'm skeptical. It'll never be a hit but it has a more potential than people are giving it credit for. Games released for Wii U can still impress. As for the XBOne I think Microsoft is currently reconsidering their entire approach to gaming. They're talking about hardware upgrades and merging the XBOne with Windows 10. We might never see a day when the XBOne is replaced. Instead the XBOne might be the first of a series of "Microsoft Machines". Valve tried to do the same but I don't think they'll be able to do it, Microsoft could.

In terms of portables the Vita is a dead line. Phones and tablets will continue to get revisions but I don't think they'll ever replace portables. There's no market for very high end portable gaming devices. The phone market is a market for sleek pocket computers that happen to be able to do some games. I could see Microsoft expanding into that space but they don't have a particularly good record with mobile devices. The 3DS however is a strong platform on very underwhelming hardware, it'll get a revision. If not with the NX then very soon after.

On 4K adoption rates and pricing? I don't think the hardware will be ready for it next generation. I do think that the panels will keep getting cheaper. It was only a few years ago that the only 4K set cost $15,000AU. Now you can get some pretty decent 55" sets starting at ~$1,500AU. For perspective "full HD" sets really took a hold here when 32" sets started to go for ~$1400AU. We're not far from that now. So I wouldn't be surprised if in the next-gen they start supporting "4K" even if they're rendering games at 1440p or so.

To answer the original question: as a Wii U owner I might feel burned if a successor comes this year, if Nintendo stops supporting the Wii U too early. As we saw with the Wii, once the next generation arrives the online services might shut off for the previous generation. Soon there would be no online Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Splatoon etc. The supply of new games will fizzle out, and existing games will go out of print. Try buying Super Paper Mario now: even the Nintendo Selects edition costs $55 on Amazon.

My daydream scenario is that the 2016 NX is a Wii U-class portable, leading to games that run on both systems. At the very least, I'm hoping NX will be compatible with the existing Wii U virtual console, allowing both systems to share a growing VC library.

Ultimately, though, the gaming world will be a sad place without Nintendo. The big N should do what it needs to do to be successful. If Nintendo can remain a viable business and still produce games that I love, I won't feel too bad.

@skywake: I agree with most of this, actually. I mean, I REALLY hope 4k becomes obtainable for me this coming Holiday season - I need a new TV in general, and I when I replace I want to stay as recent as possible.

And the Microsoft thing is interesting, too. I do think they are "reconsidering" their strategy. We might see them just go full-on into this Windows 10 ecosystem they're so crazy about, and maybe the Xbox One will just become a streaming machine of sorts in the future. Like, you're doing all of the processing and actual grunt work on your PC, but then you stream it to your Xbox One and the box upscales the image as much as possible. Maybe the "Indie revolution" comes back full-force and the Xbox One just turns into an Xbox Arcade machine lol - who knows? But I do think we may see Microsoft change tack a bit.

And PS4, again, isn't going anywhere soon. This thing, for whatever reason (I mean - it has very few exlusives, you have to admit) is selling like hot cakes. And I don't know if this year is going to be its peak - everyone was saying that about last year, but yet here we are.

I've seen a 4K TV and...there really is no point at the moment. It took me a while to adjust to HD TVs, but there is next-to-nothing that takes advantage of 4K unless I'm mistaken

@TingLz: Yea, you're right. There are a few channels out there that support 4k, and I think a few things on Netflix, but by and large - no point at the moment, really.

@TingLz:
Yeah, at this point unless you're hooking up a high end gaming PC to the thing there's not much of a point. Even the streaming services are "4K" but as a video stream the bitrate is too low for it to matter. 4K netflix is "4K" but it's more along the lines of a standard 1080p Blu-Ray in terms of visual quality. It's the same deal with Youtube.

When 4K Blu-Rays hit the market then that'll be the next thing that actually does 4K. That's soon. I would assume that iTunes would start offering downloads at 4K soon after. But there's not going to be any decent and proper "4K" streaming services for a while and definitely not any live services.

It's a chicken and the egg sort of thing. There's not going to be content until enough people have the sets. People aren't going to start buying the sets until there is almost no price premium. And there's going to be a bit of a premium until enough people start buying them.

My family has a Sony 4K TV. It's pretty much useless for 4K content. streaming 4K isn't that impressive either. It won't be until 4K Blue ray comes out that it will render something useful and impressive.

I also don't see a need for gaming to quickly go 4K. 4K photography is a great thing but computer graphics for gaming just don't need that detail as fast as we can get it, which is still a ways off because pushing full 4K in real time for games that take advantage of photorealistic presentation requires some serious power. I'm not convinced that even games with photorealistic styles need 4K anytime soon. The interactivity distracts from taking in that level detail that passive viewing can better appreciate. So let native 4K gaming come in time as technology becomes cost effective and efficient for it. Sharpened 1440p on a 4K display isn't going to hurt gaming with photorealistic presentation and even 1080p is enough resolution for awhile as we move even beyond engines like Unreal 4

I still remember my tiny TV back when I had a Gamecube. I still wonder how the heck I played on that thing