Catching DS is an interesting thought. If they had their hearts set on that then we won't see a successor for another 4 years or so and a heavy price cut in the last 2, Nintendo did mention they see the Switch having this much life left (easy if I'm honest) but the demand for Switch is keeping it's price high and the sucessor would need to launch at a similar price point as it was obviously a sweet spot. Gives me a headache thinking about it (and they don't pay me to have that headache thankfully!) How do you replace something so successful. Maybe the answer is, you don't. Then it's back to pillars etc.
The Switch has a better reputation than the Wii in the wider gaming world, so from that perspective it's good it'll sell more than the Wii.
The Wii was/is underrated and had a lot of hidden gems like MadWorld, Sin & Punishment, The Last Story, Red Steel 2, Pandora's Tower and so on. At first I didn't click with the Wii much because I didn't like the motion controls on Smash Bros and Mario Kart, but once I switched to the Gamecube controller on those games, all was well again (and of course motion controls worked great on some games). I think Wii Smash Bros is the best version of the game - I'm not sure what it is about the Switch version I don't like so much. The separate user accounts are annoying as my bro' used to unlock almost everything, but that's not the main reason I prefer the Wii version.
I've only owned a Switch for about 18 months, but it's my favourite console since the SNES, so it's great it's so successful.
I never thought it would, even as it was rapidly gaining momentum, but considering the fact that it has exceeded 85 million lifetime sales, I think it can very easily sell another 15 million and surpass the Wii.
But outselling the DS? Not a chance, and I'll humbly eat my words if proven otherwise.
"Gee, that's really persuasive. Do you have any actual points to make other than to essentially say 'me Tarzan, physical bad, digital good'?"
I think it can overtake DS personally. It's currently on track so, all things being equal, all it needs to do is be the only game in town for longer. The 3DS launched in early 2011, the DS was late 2004/early 2005. That's 6 years and the Switch is at 5 early next year. If we don't have a clear announcement of what will replace the Switch by the end of next year? The Switch probably goes on to outsell the DS
I don't see a Switch successor that soon. A "Switch Pro" I could definitely see happening but arguably we put that underneath the "Switch" banner. But Switch 2? With an announcement at some point next year? No. Not with Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3 and Breath of the Wild 2 on the immediate horizon. Not with the current position the Switch and the industry in general is in.
It will overtake it but people forget considering it took 4 yrs going to make sales number compared to a lifetime for Wii is what people forget. And it hasn't slowed down but only grown and now with OLED coming that just puts it more ahead. So people need to stop their talk and take and stand back and breath and think this is LifeTime sales and Switch hasn't reached LifeTime sales. So people are more or less comparing apple to orange which shows the sales numbers but have no relation to each other at this point in time.
Hmmm . . . I was thinking about Wii, but can Switch outsell DS? Interesting thought.
Let's say they get past Wii next year. They would need about 50 million unit to pass the DS?
I guess the question in my mind would be . . . would the console that is past the Switch OLED going to still be considered a Switch and count towards that count? Like the New 3DS was counted in with the 3DS sales? If so, then does that make it more plausible that Switch gets past DS in lifetime sales?
The New 3DS can play some games that the original did not, but the New 3DS was able to play all the 3DS games. So does that mean if the Switch Pro plays all the Switch cartridges and games that it can be counted with the Switch sales numbers? LOL.
RE: Better Reputation — The thing with the Switch is that most of my kid's friends know the Switch and think its cool. They want to play it when they are over. But only half of them have one. But they all had a Wii. Rather than consoles, most play games on their phones or the PC. It's a different environment now-a-days compared to when the Wii came out IMHO. I am just amazed that the Switch has made so many sales.
I guess the question in my mind would be . . . would the console that is past the Switch OLED going to still be considered a Switch and count towards that count? Like the New 3DS was counted in with the 3DS sales? If so, then does that make it more plausible that Switch gets past DS in lifetime sales?
These definitions are completely arbitrary. The Wii was more of a Gamecube than the GBA was a Gameboy. It'll still be a Switch if Nintendo continues to call it a Switch, that's all it comes down to really. And given they tried to link the Wii U to the Wii and 3DS to DS in branding I don't see them trying to brand the Switch successor as something entirely new
Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"
I must confess I predicted lifetime sales of 75-80 million for the Switch, but it’s gone past that and seems to be going strong. I also suspect the OLED version will sell decently as many early adopters seek an upgrade (not all but a decent amount).
I feel it now has the potential to beat the Wii, however not the DS. That had the advantage of being a cheap system with many non-traditional gamers buying it for just 1 or a few games at most. The Switch is a bit outside the impulse buy market.
Hopefully they don't repeat the Wii U debacle. And I'm not sure how much anyone liked the "New" moniker to define the New 3DS.
If anything the Switch is something of a learning curve what to do right it has both 3DS and Wii feature combined into one package that is something innovative in itself.
Hopefully if Nintendo brings out a "Pro" Switch, they clearly outline the Features and Benefits clearly.
And bring out a strong line-up of games to really make the Feature and Benefits pretty obvious.
My biggest wish, though, would be that you could play the current Switch games on this successor.
I do hope this comes sooner then later as how could they not do that. They need a 4k/DLSS succession to begin as anything. Switch begin in 2017 and 2019 v2 but still using original GPU and probably CPU that needs to breath new life into a aging system that is starting to show the lackluster graphics on some game and when Docked is more obvious to see.
Yes. Because it is both a set-top and portable, it allowed Nintendo to consolidate its efforts. While at the same time reducing the analysis-paralysis in the audience in that we don't need to pick whether we get a set-top or portable. We can have both at the same time with a single purchase! (But also with the added, if we really just want portable, we can pick Switch Lite . . . but using the same games.)
By Wii U debacle, I was referencing what some had said was a weak communication that the Wii U was not just a Wii add-on. But also that it took them a while before they brought out Mario Kart and Super Smash. We were (are) a Nintendo family. We started with the GameCube (if you don't count my GameBoy I had in College.) and we upgraded to the Wii. But I held off on the Wii U until they brought out Super Smash. For a Switch Pro, I hope there is a strong line-up of games to really make users want to upgrade to the new gear. But at the same time, want to have some extra life in the Switch OG. LOL.
RE:They need 4k/DLSS succession . . .
Yes. Isn't the Tegra X1 chip that is used in the Switch coming to the end of its life-cycle?
So I guess the question is . . . what replaces the Tegra X1 chip?
On the one hand, if there is still demand for the original Switch specs, it would be a shame not to maximize the installed user base. But as soon as the demand for the OG Switch specs has maxed out, it would be nice for Nintendo to have the Switch Pro waiting in the background, along with a strong library of games to really launch the Switch Pro.
From the numbers, it looks like the Switch may overtake the Gameboy (Colour) before the end of the year.
Do you think it will over take the DS?
I am tempted to get another Switch just to make this interesting! LOL.
If the new "Pro" system still counts towards Switch sales, I may be tempted to buy it sooner than later just to help Switch chug north of 150 million units! LOL.
At this point the Switch won't need anther hardware variant to eventually pass the PS2. Figure the Switch will end 2022 at around 120m. Two more years of continued strong sales of 15m+? Yeah, in the end it'll curb stomp the PS2's lifetime sales becoming the all-time best selling console.
That said, I think an OLED Switch Lite is coming pretty soon.
Switch Physical Collection - 1,251 games (as of April 24th, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay
@NintendoDad That's the problem it's X1is end of life cycle and most likely they already have inventory supply or chain for X2 or newer GPU and that would indicate older inventory is already being finished with the new X2 or newer chipset pose to replace them thus meaning a New Switch is already in the works. It's that the Covid put a damper on Factories that produce the Switch - that's the reason we don't see or hear about it yet. Nvidia isn't making the X1 anymore that only leaves one question where the X2's Switch? I would guess they have working X2 Switches it's when or how they will announce them.
@NintendoDad I think it has a chance of outselling the PS2 and DS. The switch's momentum hasn't stopped and it's continues to be the best selling console in every region.
In the very least it'll outsell every other console no question. Probably by the end of this year.
103.5 million in 4 years 9 months. It'll do another 2.5m in the Jan - March quarter, wrapping up at 106m after 5 years.
Another 22m for FY6 puts us at 128m in March 2023, 6 years post launch. Another 20m for FY7 puts us at 148m in March 2024, 7 years post launch.
At that point it's an easy 7m into March 2025, when Switch 2 releases. They'll smash that all day. That is, of course, assuming they have enough chips to last that long, and don't plan on launching Switch 2 in 2024. Which... they might. But even if it launches in 2024, the sheer momentum should be enough to carry it the final 7m. Especially with price cuts.
The only thing that can stop Switch taking the PS2's crown, at this point, is Nintendo themselves.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
@Magician - RE: "won't need anther hardware variant to eventually pass the PS2". I'd agree with that. As for the Switch Pro, I think that would help show the direction of Nintendo so that the established market keeps their eyes (and their wallets) on Nintendo. LOL.
@SwitchForce - +1. Yes. If no more X1's, then what's next? It is in Nintendo's (and us fans' LOL) best interest for the "next" to be already thought out for when momentum starts to slow down.
@iLikeUrAttitude - +1. I guess a question would be . . . when does it do this. LOL.
@JaxonH - +1. It will be interesting to see if this time line proves to be accurate. As for "The only thing that can stop Switch", let's hope Nintendo doesn't call the next Switch the Switch U. And that's coming from a Wii U owner that thought the Wii U was great. LOL.
I guess, a couple of new questions have popped up in my mind.
Has the Nintendo Switch reached critical mass? And what would that even mean? LOL.
A critical mass where all your friends have one, so you end up getting one to play the same games on-line? Or maybe that there are so many Nintendo Switches out there that every Video Game Production House needs to be developing for the Nintendo Switch?
@NintendoDad
Not sure, but I do know Crossing 100 million sold draws attention from developers and publishers.
EA made an off the cuff remark about re-evaluating supporting Switch if it ever crossed 100m. Well... it just did.
At that point, the install base is so large it's hard to ignore. Probably why we'll continue to see plenty of games ported. There's just too much install base to ignore.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
Forums
Topic: When do you think Switch sales will over take Wii sales?
Posts 21 to 40 of 41
Please login or sign up to reply to this topic