Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Can we take a moment to acknowledge the fact that, if Nintendo doesn't release Switch 2 in spring 2024, they're GOING TO break the all time record held by the PS2/DS. It'll be a foregone conclusion at that point.

Switch was at 125 million in March. Projected sales of 15 million, and with Zelda TotK, Pikmin 4, Mario RPG, WarioWare, Mario Bros Wonder, Batman Arkham Trilogy and DQM3, I think they're gonna hit their target.

So. 140 million sold in March 2024. That's only 15 million away from the all time record. Let's assume they release Switch 2 that holiday. Even if that's the case, they'll still sell another 12 million units for Switch that FY. Bringing it to 152m in March 2025. And like DS/PS2, it'll keep selling for another 2 years. Maybe 5m then 2m, but there's no scenario on earth it doesn't muster that final 3m needed to crack the crown.

Sounds like a good reason not to release a new console in early 2024. Personally I'm assuming late 2024 at the earliest. Sure it's a long life cycle, but assume 1-2 years delay or replanning because of covid and suddenly it's a pretty typical length.

@FishyS
Holiday 2024 or spring 2025 doesn't seem illogical or abnormal to me.

My hang up with it is, by that point Switch momentum will be heading well into single digit millions, essentially repeating the pattern of all their previous failed attempts at generational transitions. Given their statements about how they're cognizant of those shortcomings and how they specifically want to ensure that doesn't happen this time, I struggle to reconcile a decision to wait until the iron has a faint dim glow with their previous statements.

Who knows. Anything could happen. But Sony consistently sells 20m units their final year before the transition, and as demonstrated with PS4, tries to end with a blowout year so that excitement and momentum acts as a catalyst to push people toward upgrading.

Either they're going to model their approach in similar fashion, or they won't. But if they want to, they'll need to come in hot spring 2024. They can wait, and I'm sure they'll be fine either way, but waiting until holiday 2024 or later definitely wouldn't be following that "let's do things differently next time" sentiment they seemed to support in previous statements.

It would be kind of awesome and hilarious if they did drop a new console Spring 2024 with no warning and the Peach game was their starter game.

1 day away from the Pikmin 4 demo. 3 days from Raincode.

And another day closer to Batman Arkham Trilogy. I'm rewatching the Dark Knight Trilogy of movies in anticipation. I'm really, really excited to finally have these games on Switch.

And, the Trilogy is built from the base 360/PS3 versions for Asylum and City, not the plastic looking Return to Arkham versions. First time those versions will be available on a current console. I'm seeing a lot of hype from series fans, too. The Switch trailer of Batman is getting more views than even Pikmin 4. Not that Pikmin will be some massive 10m seller, but it'll definitely do 3-5m. So that's pretty impressive for a AAA 3rd party on Switch. Usually they don't get much attention.

I could watch this trailer every day til release.

Is it worth buying a Switch OLED this late in the game?
Still using our og Switch from 2017.

@Professor_Plumber I'm pretty sure we knew this info sometime around 2016/2017. I don't remember exactly when it was but there was an image Nintendo made which showed a timeline with 3DS + Wii U, NX/Switch and then a question mark afterwards with NX/Switch and the question mark having the same account.

@ERGgamin
That's a question only you can answer.

Weigh the benefits vs costs. It's sleek with thin bezels and feels much more premium. Perfect blacks and more vibrant colors really do make a noticeable different. Kickstand gets upgraded from barely usable to fantastic. Battery life is DOUBLE the original Switch. No more constantly worrying about low battery warning. We're talking 5 hours minimum for AAA games on max brightness, or 6-10 for indies and retro titles (Final Fantasy IX cracks the 10 hour mark). And there's a few other small benefits like 64 GB storage.

Cost and potential cost. It's $350, and you'd get anywhere from 1-2 years of use out of it assuming you traded in and upgraded immediately when Switch 2 releases. And if you traded in, you could knock an easy $200-250 off the price, which means you're getting back a sizeable sum of your investment, in addition to 1-2 years use. Alternatively, you could keep the system even after Switch 2 releases assuming the next Switch doesn't have an OLED screen.

It really just comes down to whether you think those terms are acceptable. If it were me? Heck yes I'd do it in a heartbeat. But I have different financial circumstances. There's others who wouldn't. You've gotta answer that question for yourself.

@JaxonH can Nintendo Switch really outsold PS2/DS? the sale of the console are in decline, i dont doubt the possibilty of Switch outselling PS2/DS, but the console sales declining i think this become more hard to archive.

@Giancarlothomaz
Yes. Saying sales are "in decline" tells us nothing. You could be selling 50 million units a year and "decline" to 45 million. Just because something is "in decline" doesn't really tell us anything of value.

What matters is this:

1) What are the current sales totals
2) How fast are sales decreasing
3) What is the delta between current total and record total

Accounting for all 3 pieces of data, I'd ascribe a 90% chance of breaking the record if Nintendo Switch 2 doesn't release until holiday 2024. See my original post which walks through the logic.

edit
I've modified my estimated probability using Bayes Theorem:

• 60% chance Switch breaks the record
• If Switch 2 doesn't release next spring, the probability increases to 80%
• If Switch 2 does release next spring, the probability drops to 20%

I tried to take an unbiased approach- even though I think spring 24 is 50%, I simply ascribed a 1/3 chance for spring '24, a 1/3 chance for holiday '24, and a 1/3 chance for spring '25.

@JaxonH
Thanks for the response.
Upgrade we shall. As you said, even if the "Switch 2" is announced and the release date confirmed, the new OLED we still be worth playing games for the foreseeable future.
If the "Switch 2" is not fully backward compatible, keeping the Switch will be inevitable.

@ERGgamin
Ya, I've got a feeling Switch 2 won't be OLED, and by keeping Switch OLED it frees up a ton of space that would be sucked up via BC games. Like, I have a 1.5 TB micro SD in my Switch. And it's full. There would be no room for Switch 2 games.

Granted I could just swap SD out. But that requires powering off, and it's just easier to grab Switch OLED for Switch games, grab Switch 2 for Switch 2 games. Exception would be any games that get much needed performance or resolution increases. Stuff like Pikmin 4, Super Mario Bros Wonder, Mario RPG... who cares. But stuff like Xenoblade Chronicles trilogy, Zelda Tears of the Kingdom, Pokemon Scarlet... those will be good candidates for downloading on Switch 2. Provided they get performance updates, of course.

@JaxonH
Good points. Some games will not benefit from the performance boost, so keep them on the Switch.
We just bought a one tb sd card, our 128 gb card filled up quickly, and then there was a lot of swapping out of games. With the number of games announced during the June Direct alone and those we are still playing, an sd upgrade was needed. Just need to transfer data and start playing.
Thanks again for the replies.

Is half life available on switch ?

Nope. NintendoLife makes a page for all switch games, so if you search for something here and don't get a hit, that generally means it's not on Switch.

Good news about their network. Maybe we will be getting BC afterall. But, won’t be excited until they officially announce it.

@Ninfan
No, but Portal and Portal 2 are on Switch (though I suspect you already knew this, and that's why you were asking about HL).

But on the off chance you didn't know, Portal and Portal 2 are on Switch, and they're glorious! Look and play identically to SteamDeck, complete with gyro aiming and everything.

A note to those waiting for the Pikmin 4 demo, the UK Direct says June 29th so the demo will likely go live in around 12 hours from now (which is at a time where it's June 28th in the US and June 29th in the UK).

And Trails Into Reverie drops next week too? This is getting downright absurd.

So... I still haven't finished Zelda Tears of the Kingdom but already started a new save file in Pikmin HD and Pikmin 2 HD. Started playing Sonic Origins Plus for Triple Trouble on GameGear and checking out the improved spin dash in Sonic 3 & Knuckles, fired up Mario Rabbids Sparks of Hope to check out the 2nd expansion DLC campaign, meanwhile Ghost Trick is dropping tomorrow with killer reviews, AEW Fight Forever drops tomorrow and is actually a playable version on Switch (finally a good wrestling game!), Lara Croft Collection drops tomorrow with both Guardians of Light and Temple of Osiris, Rain Code drops Friday which will hopefully be even better than Danganronpa or AI Somnium Files, we've got a Pikmin 4 demo releasing sometime today which, God help me I will be playing within literal minutes of it going live, and Trails Into Reverie drops next week.

Even if I was unemployed and spent all day loafing around eating pizza and playing games, I would still not have the time for even half this stuff. How... with a full time job... I can't even...

But I will try. Of that you can be certain.

edit
Even Walmart Canada knows what time it is

acording to Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotic in the FTC Microsoft trial, Nintendo Switch sucessor techinal/graphical power will be close to gen 8 consoles(Xbox One e PS4)