Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Ryu_Niiyama
To be honest I think you're completely misunderstanding where I'm coming from. I am a developer, although not a game developer to be fair, and obviously I'm a tech enthusiast. So sure I'm coming to this from that perspective, more power = more possibilities. But to be blunt that's also the reality of the situation here, and good sales/business management has to understand that reality

At the end of the day we're talking about a platform to deliver games. That's all this is. The more compelling games a platform can attract per dollar the more attractive it is to a consumer. And because specs grow exponentially there's always this elastic band that's being stretched every day after launch. Go too early and you miss some of what you could've milked out of it, wait too long and it snaps like it did with the Wii -> Wii U transition. That's the balance these platformers have to make. And it's not easy

Basically game platforms have three main phases. Early on they're super compelling for developers primarily. Solid power, great raw value but the platform maker isn't making much of a margin and the library is pretty small. And from a developers' perspective even if the console bombs you know in the first few years there will be dedicated fans who will still pick it up. A couple of years after launch the hardware isn't quite as good value on its own and developers are starting to hit limits but the library has grown to make up for it in the minds of consumers and the margins are growing. There you hit your peak, when it's most attractive to consumers, which for the Switch was clearly around 2020

From there you enter the third and final phase. The hardware is really starting to show its age so developers are looking for the next thing. Both because other platforms give them more flexibility and because we're at the tail end now and you don't want to launch in trash time. Hell, at this stage the platform holder would be literally telling developers about their next thing. So announcements dry up for consumers. Also for consumers hardware generally has advanced by like 8x/$ so they're looking at other products that run rings around your platform. Does it immediately stop sales? Well no. But it does kill momentum

So when I look at the Switch now? I see a platform that's firmly in the third phase. Which means they need to release new hardware to keep the momentum going. This is why we got the OLED model, and also why we got the New 3DS when we did. Because new hardware? Well that changes the equation, especially if it's a dramatic upgrade at a point where they've already squeezed all they can out of this platform.

So yeah, of course I want new hardware because I'm a techie and I like shiny things. But that doesn't mean it doesn't also make sense from a business perspective. Because like it or not, Nintendo is in the business of selling shiny things. They want to catch the eye of people who are, frankly, far less interested in Nintendo's core IP and far more interested in the raw value of the hardware than I am

@JaxonH Ok, maybe I was a bit strict when it came to Nintendo Gold Points. Mostly because I get physical games.

@Slowdive Great, now I can play a mediocre experience on Switch!

@NeonPizza I'm ok with 30fps, but from what you're saying, it might not be the case for you because you have, what I'm assuming is a 120hz TV, which from what I heard doesn't handle 30fps and 24fps content well. Is that the case, because if it is, it might be the TV smoothing the frame rate, which I think isn't great for Switch games. Or it's the opposite, I don't know, I don't have a OLED TV, I don't even know what I'm talking about lol.

Consumers don't look at it like that. For the average gamer the upgrade path would've been something like PS2/GBA -> Wii/DS -> PS3/3DS -> PS4/Switch. PS2 sales peaked in 2003, Wii sales peaked in 2008, PS3 sales peaked in 2011, PS4 2017, Switch 2020

Switch is definitely into its late mid-life. The promise of a couple of big, highly anticipated games to anchor 2023 (BoTW 2 and MP3) means that it still has relevance and a hook for the enthusiast crowd but that will begin to fade as soon as BoTW 2 is released. The clock is definitely ticking and they will need to talk about a successor next year (even if they can't release it).

I expect that Nintendo will continue with the Switch into a "late phase 3DS" style strategy to move the console into a budget space pitched at younger players. I think we'll see some relatively low cost, low effort ports of 3DS and Wii games (particularly thinking of things like Kirby Planet Robobot, Woolly World, DKC:R, Mario Galaxy 2, WW & TP HD etc.) and possibly other things that target a broad "blue ocean" audience (Nintendogs Switch surely?) or are straightforward to make (Oracle games in HD) or both. They've cultivated this install base - it is time over the next 12 months to harvest that yield in a way that they kind of fumbled with previous consoles like Wii, DS and 3DS then the console can become a budget gateway into the Nintendo ecosystem for a further 2-3 years.

I think the Switch will be far more successful in this role than the Wii, DS or 3DS ever were for a whole host of reasons.

@StuTwo Spunds like what they tried to do with the 3DS... Though in that case they didn't start that until after the Switch had already launched. Wonder if they'd be gunshy to try it again?

@link3710 Maybe but I think that the position of the Switch is much stronger than the 3DS was ever in. Obviously unit sales are much higher for the Switch at this point in its lifecycle but the difference in active install base is probably even greater than the difference in install base.

How many 3DS's were collectors editions or replacement "upgrade" systems with the older version stored in drawers? Few were shared "household systems" in the way that many Switch consoles are. And of course Switch software has always sold incredibly well. The 3DS always had a dedicated fanbase but it was also clearly built around a gimmick that became a bit of an albatross around the games design from early on - it made porting often difficult and meant that (when games were ported) they were typically compromised in some way (or at least perceived as such). Ditto the Wii.

Switch doesn't have these same issues and the nature of the modern eShop means that - whatever its downsides - you can buy good (in some cases definitive) versions of games from most of the biggest franchises.

@StuTwo Oh I agree with you that it would work much better this time. My question is if the executives will be willing to try something that already failed, that's usually a hard sell in corporate culture.

@StuTwo
Not just the Switch but Nintendo in general are in a much better spot with the Switch compared to the Wii U/3DS. That graph I posted on the previous page says quite a bit. Raw revenue over the last couple of years is almost 3x what it was during the tail end of the 3DS/Wii U, similar to what they had with the Wii/DS (although a bit less because inflation). Also their overall profit margin is the highest it's ever been

So yeah, given the scale I think any attempt to keep the Switch chugging along post new-hardware could be pretty lucrative. Whether or not they follow that through with actual support in terms of continued content though is another question.

My gut feeling is it'll depend on how big the gap between "Switch" and "Switch Pro/2" games are. If you can drop in a Switch cartridge into the new hardware or re-download Switch purchases on a unified eShop and the games run as if they were any other game? I see no reason why the Switch can't exist as a budget SKU for a long while. At the very least indie devs with simpler titles will continue to support the current SKUs for years. At the other extreme if they're entirely different platforms I don't think they can keep both going. We'll probably land somewhere in the middle.... but I'm still hopeful for the former

With the Portal collection looking like a big success on Switch, I wonder what's next for Valve. A Half Life collection for Switch? The Left 4 Dead games for Switch? Half Life Alyx for PSVR2?

Yes! Yes! So much yes!

Micron has officially announced a 1.5 TB micro SD card

https://www.techspot.com/community/topics/micron-lays-claim-t...

I guess NL is not going to review Rabbids Pary of Legends because it's so mediocre?

@JaxonH Now that's a big boy if I've ever seen it. Weren't there issues with launch Switches when they tried to read a 1TB card? I could've sworn I'd seen a Spawn Wave video on it.

I have a 1TB SD card in my V2 Switch, never had any issues with it.

@Fizza
No. There's never been issues.

Fake news spread because someone reported issues with a 1TB microSD, stirring up a bunch of click bait headlines and videos, but it was never replicated by anyone else, and to this day has never been reported by anyone else. Meaning, the person either lied (like the dry ice smoke from Xbox Series X) or something else happened that had nothing to do with the sd.

@JaxonH Ah I see. I've never heard of that 'dry ice smoke' with the Series X before though.

I mean I know people compared it to a fridge but this is just ridiculous.

@Fizza Help my Mini Fridge is on cold ice

@Fizza Since launch, I've never heard of 1TB card issues with switch either. NL user Ryu_Niiyama got a 1tb card for the switch like two years ago, and it's worked fine. Pretty sure this is the page they ordered from. https://www.amazon.com/SanDisk-Ultra-MicroSDXC-Memory-Adapter...

@WoomyNNYes I'm currently about a third of the way through my current 128GB cart so I very much appreciate that link for the future!

@Fizza My link was for amazon US. If buy from amazon UK, I assume you know the rules for buying legitimate cards for the best deals on amazon. (I'll list them in case any newbs are reading)

• Only buy a big name brand you recognize & trust.
• Only buy when it's shipped & sold by Amazon. (avoid third parties).
• Only buy from a page that already has many positive reviews; Like thousands of reviews, tens of thousands+. The link I supplied above has 220,000 positive reviews.

I have 4 of them actually. 2 for my switch (just remembered my OG switch has a 400GB) and two of my surface pros. Likely gonna get another for the switch this BF as well. Starting to get down to my last 300GB (sounds like a lot but if I bought my eshop wishlist I would blow through that). All work just fine. JaxonH has a few as well.