Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Why does it have to be an all-or-nothing thing? There are degrees. We're getting close to 6 years and a lot of things in tech double per $ around every 2 years. On that trajectory, on average, we're looking at something that's 2^3 or 8x more from something the same price. That's not PS5 sure, but it's far from insignificant

We're talking about a portable slightly above PS4. Probably going a tad more than 8x for storage and a tad less than 8x for RAM given where the Switch ended up. For a portable which probably will still be rocking a 720p screen? That's heaps. Especially if you combine it with modern tricks like DLSS and VRR that can improve perceived performance without any extra power. That'd open up an entire library of potential ports and new releases. And it'd increase the appeal of existing ports by not having releases like Fall Guys which runs at something like 15fps with frequent crashes

Really, I don't see how Nintendo can coast along with the Switch hardware as it is for too much longer. Not when there's this vast performance gap between what they are selling and what they could sell. And if they don't? Someone will capitalise on it, or at least attempt to. Valve sure as hell is giving it a go already

It doesn't have to have a 3090 in it for it to be an improvement that'll move the needle

@Rambler I'm morbidly curious, how bad are her books? I remember everyone ripping on them for the bad shamrockese but there's not a chance in her hell I would give money to that idiot.

@Rambler So you shoplifted the book then? Good idea! We need to get as many of her books out of circulation as soon as possible

I'm kinda disappointed. I was hoping her books would be proper crazy in the so bad it's good category. Still it's impressive she's knocking a book out a year, she can teach the likes of Salman Rushdie and Hilary Mantel a thing or two!

Nintendo will need several titles launch year to ensure the Switch successor is a big success assuming it were to launch next year:

The Sequel to Breath of the Wild and Metroid Prime 4 - much like how they did with the original BOTW, release it for both current and successor platforms
Mario Kart 9 - this is Nintendo’s biggest selling franchise right now. It just continues to sell millions. But with 8 Deluxe getting DLC until end of next year, I doubt any new game would be launching until 2024.
A big Mario game like Odyssey for the same reason Mario Kart is needed. It sells huge numbers, more than Zelda.
Ideally Splatoon would be there too but they’re launching it this year so I don’t think there would be anything to launch on the next console until 2024 onwards.

I just remembered that Nintendo swaped the releases of Xenoblade 3 and Splatoon 3.. The Splatoon Special Edition was probably the reason. Took them longer to produce.

It'll be interesting to see how folks who're asking for a full-on successor now will react if Nintendo instead offer a half-step upgraded Switch? I'm certainly interested, but that interest comes with caveats. Rumors are that the half-step Switch would run MHR at 60fps. How is that performance improvement implemented and would it extent to other games? Are we simply talking about an overclocked Tegra X1 or is it a new SoC?

So many questions.

@skywake all or nothing? I don’t think I understand what you mean. Nintendo hasn’t had 3rd party support like this in a long time but there are still a lot of snubs or using switch as the last resort despite sales momentum and install base. If Nintendo makes another hybrid then it will be an ARM based system which means that fundamentally not much will change from a dev perspective. Ps4 level graphics (with a RAM bottle neck) will still be considered ancient/withered by many devs and technophile gamers but the difference will be no install base to validate Nintendo’s choices. And unlike the 3ds generation many of the devs that lived on Nintendo handhelds are gone and due to the hybrid nature of the switch the dev landscape has changed (as a game will really have to be at its core design a console game first with handheld/hybrid elements second). Many games that skipped the system could have run if they had been optimized or a switch version prioritized. No different than the wii and gamecube years when multiplat actually meant multiplat.

But those days are gone. A dev/publisher can afford to slight or snub such a large install base because the way gaming revenue is generated has changed. Micro transactions mean you can out your eggs in less baskets but still make an ROI. And Nintendo can’t afford to bank roll a Nintendo successor version for every dev that snubs the switch for the ease of deving for the twins. Which is why dev kits in the hands of devs and deals set up are so important. But even that will only go so far. A system that is a powerful iteration of the switch will have to battle a reluctant to upgrade install base (outside of day one adopters and technophiles) and still have to deal with dev buy in. Which puts it at a better but still similar state of the wiiu(and 3ds). Nintendo hates price cuts so they likely won’t pull a 3ds life support measure and ultimately all the free games and money (gold coins) the wiiu life support program had still didn’t boost sales enough. Throwing more tech isn’t an auto win button. And mobile gaming (the gap between that and console) shows that it isn’t required. Dev and consumer buy in is what matters. They have that (and parts to build the machines) as much as they are gonna get right now. Unless Nintendo makes another home console and makes it similar to the twins, a more powerful switch will lessen that position (and dev opinion of Nintendo is fickle so if they make a ps5 level box it won’t have the same buy in as sony got) which currently keeps them on top sales wise. We’ve seen some elements of this since the N64, it’s not going to change by throwing money and tech at it (especially with supply constraints).

Also you only quoted part of what I said to form your rebuttal. Which had some of what I said in this post already. IMO the tech of the switch isn’t (and never has been) the issue. It’s dev buy in, same as it was with the wiiu (and the gamecube, n64, some aspects of the wii…etc). Put the resources in place to get dev kits and modify engines to optimize games or make a version best suited for the system and then the tech under the hood matters way less (which switch sales even with its dodgy 3rd party support shows). But devs are very reluctant to do that. So work on the supply positioning and dev relationships before rushing to throw more tech at it (which still won’t be enough anyway) while they have the advantage is good business. Technophiles have been hollering for a “pro” since the second year of the switch. A successor is still not gonna satisfy them.

As long as sales projections are primarily held back by supply constraints instead of a lack of demand, Nintendo can absolutely keep going with their current hardware. The gap between Switch and the next-gen devices is monumental, but it's also mostly relevant to third-party AAA support, which Nintendo would enjoy very little of even if they released a dramatically more powerful device on the market.

That's not to say that they don't need to eventually release a more powerful device, of course, but I absolutely think they can, should, and will coast on the Switch for a few more years until the supply chain is better able to accommodate the massive manufacturing demands of a next-gen Nintendo hybrid.

I think the exclusives are the biggest sign to be honest. Age of Calamity's framerate is extremely rough, Bowser's Fury (just that mode) gets rather rough when Bowser appears, MH Stories 2 is rather rough in more open areas, Metroid Dread gets rather rough during some bosses and late game areas, SMTV is extremely rough, Three Hopes while a lot more stable than Age of Calamity could've done with a 30fps cap if there wasn't new hardware incoming, etc.

Sure, SMTV is heavily rumoured to be coming to PC and PS4 (Persona no longer PS exclusive makes this very likely) but look at MH Rise, that game is very smooth on Switch and it came to PC 10 months later.

@Ralizah the supply constraints hit so many areas beyond gaming. I am having the worst time ever keeping computer inventory stocked because if I blink stuff is sold out or delayed (and I am just talking office equipment not hardcore components ). And it is still not letting up. Nintendo can totally afford to wait at least another year.

What is Switch Sports at this point?

Baaaaaaaby Shark doot doot

One thing I will say is, I hear all the time Nintendo "needs" to release an upgrade or that, "they can't" go on much longer without one.

And to that I say, "watch them". They don't need anything, and they absolutely can go on longer- much longer, if desired.

Ppl have a habit of cherry picking games with a few frame drops and using that as definitive proof it's needed and it's needed now. But what they don't mention is the countless majority of games that run absolutely fine. Zombie Army 4, Portal Companion Collection, Kirby Forgotten Land, Mario Strikers, Switch Sports, Monster Hunter Rise Sunbreak, etc etc. And even most of the ones that aren't perfect (SMTV, Fire Emblem Warriors Three Hopes) are perfectly sufficient and playable. Good enough most consumers are satisfied.

Thats not to say it wouldn't be nice, or that there arent some games with chokepoints that could be improved, but it's definitely not "imminently needed", contrary to internet myth.

Nintendo Hong Kong has updated yesterday the Bayonetta 3 playlist

@JaxonH I DEMAND A NEW NINTENDO SWITCH PRO HAPPEN NOW WITH BOW2 EXCLUSIVELY OR I'M WRITING AN ANGRY LETTER TO NINTENDO BECAUSE MY KIRBY GAME DROPPED 2 FRAMES

I've seen a post like that once before, just thought I'd parody it.

There's a Sword/Shield Magikarp online tourney and at first glance the Switch news section made it seem like Magikarp Jump (the mobile game) was coming to Switch.

@Grumblevolcano I saw that as well and it honestly makes me want to shiny hunt for one in Let's Go Pikachu, transfer it over and use it in this competition, I'll take free BP any day of the week. Though to be honest, I wouldn't put it past them to make a sequel literally just called 'Jump, Magikarp!'. They got away with calling a new Pokemon Snap..... 'New Pokemon Snap', it feels like something they would do.

@Ryu_Niiyama
Your entire bit here was that Nintendo doesn't need new hardware because new hardware won't "satisfy". Because it's not going to compete with the PS5 there's no advantage to releasing something new. That they can "wait a year or so more". That's what I meant when I said it's not an all or nothing thing

It's not a case of Nintendo either releasing a PS5 competitive something and getting every single third party on board OR Nintendo releasing nothing and just being satisfied with what they have. It's also not quite the case that it's either keep the install base they have or start at 0 with a new thing (oh yes, @Magician, not everyone is suggesting a "successor"). There's a HUGE chasm between those two extremes

And right in the middle of that chasm? Is probably something like a PS4 tier portable released within the next year. And as a side note, I'm not sure why you're thinking it'd be like a PS4 "with a memory bandwidth bottleneck". The Steam Deck has 2x the RAM as the PS4 running at the same speed, the later Tegra SoCs support memory bandwidth in the same ballpark. We wouldn't be looking at 4GB LPDDR4 @ 25GB/s, it'd be more like 8-16GB of LPDDR5 at 100-200GB/s

@skywake no, my entire bit was devs often snub Nintendo’s hardware offerings (again, support is way better but still slow or snubs still happen) because they want something that matches the specs current gen offerings of MS and Sony and thus means they have to spend less time on optimization and it’s easier to port (not because switch can’t run it). Which isn’t going to happen because Nintendo doesn’t have that approach to their hardware development. So it is in Nintendo’s best interest to take advantage of the fact that they can get more stock on shelves with Switch vs the twins and not cut that momentum unless they have dev deals and dev kits in the hands of devs to ensure a steady supply of software for the new system. I don’t understand why you keep misunderstanding me or maybe we are just talking at different angles here. So I still don’t understand your all or nothing response (or rather how you think that is what I am saying). That isn’t what I said at all.

So TLDR is; Sell the product that sales as long as possible (especially while they have parts) while working behind the scenes to get dev buy in on the successor. Or there is a higher chance of commercial failure. I hope that makes better sense to you.

Edit: I am talking about a successor and not a mid gen upgrade (that poses an entirely different set of issues). Which means 0 install base. Still no all or nothing scenario here.

@Ryu_Niiyama
Yeah, I guess my disagreement with you is mostly in the angle you're going here. You seem to be suggesting that developers are one unified group where what they want is something that matches the PS5. When in reality there would be a lot of projects that aren't happening on the Switch due to its low power that would be on Switch if if had 8x the power, 2x the RAM, 2-4x the memory bandwidth etc

The idea that selling existing stock as long as possible means extending the life of the current hardware well into the 7, 8 year range. And that there's no reason currently to jump to newer hardware for that reason. And your bit about them having the parts, firstly that stockpile of parts isn't necessarily for Switch. Secondly a new hardware release does not mean stopping production of existing hardware immediately

There is a HUGE space in the middle here

Honestly, if you were making these points in early 2020 I'd be agreeing with you. But we're a fair way down the road now. A 6 year life for a console is pretty long. Early next year the Switch will have been out for as long as the Wii was and be pretty close to the life of the DS and 3DS. And there's a reason why we tend to get new hardware at around this length of time from launch. The potential spec creeps up, eventually it just doesn't make economic sense to keep selling old hardware

Developers and consumers will move on. Nintendo will start talking publicly about new hardware very soon. If they don't we'll have to seriously wonder what on earth their medium term plans are. Because they can't still be selling nothing but existing Switch hardware in 2024