Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Socar

It's an interesting discussion. Some folks are hopeful that DLSS will be enabled through just the Switch itself rather than an upgraded dock. But the assumption is that the performance of the Mariko wouldn't be enough to support DLSS and that a better SoC would be necessary. And the prime candidates for replacing the X1 would be the X2, the Xavier, or the Orin.

Orin on paper seems like something that would power the next next-generation of Switch ten years from now, which leaves the X2 or Xavier. The X2 is Pascal-based, while Xavier is Volta-based. Previous rumors suggested that the Switch revision would be Volta-based and that tensor cores would be needed for DLSS to function, the Xavier ticks those boxes.

https://wccftech.com/nintendo-switch-pro-gpu-volta-4k/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning_super_sampling

Regardless, nobody knows for sure until Nintendo themselves unveil the Switch revision either late this year or early next year.

Edit: P.S. - Personally, I really hope it is the Xavier. There's the potential that the memory bandwidth would get a bump from 25 GB/s in the Mariko to over 100 GB/s with the Xavier. That doesn't come close to the 176 GB/s present in a base PS4 (or 217 GB/s in a PS4 Pro), but still significant for improved game performance.

Here's the info page for the Xavier.

Naturally, the Switch's version of the Xavier would be pared down from this.

https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-jetson-agx-xavier-32...

@Giancarlothomaz

I assume those earning results will reveal that Bayonetta 2 is still the worst selling Switch first party game?

Which is a tragedy I do not abide.

well i expect at minumum 10 milions units sold for the Switch version of Monster Hunter Rise, i don't expect Monster Hunter Rise to surpass Monster Hunter World sales, even with the PC port of Monster Hunter Rise.

Nintendo is gonna reveal it financial earning of fiscal year 2020-2021 in may.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/03/nintendo_will_relea...

@Giancarlothomaz
Well, if Switch does 10 million for Rise, it's almost certainly going to surpass World. Since PC would only need to do half as well as Switch to hit 16m.

I suspect 7 million sold on Switch by the time everything is said and done, with another 3 million on PC for a total of 10 million. Which is still phenomenal. But I expect a much higher attach ratio for the Ultimate expansion. The fact only 1 in 3 base World players bought the expansion speaks to the sudden influx of casual AAA gamers that didn't stick with it and won't be returning in the future. Switch should see at least 50% on the expansion for a cool 10 million combined. PC should hit a cool 5 million combined. And we're looking at 15 million total for game + expansion across Switch and PC.

It's not the 22m of World + Iceborne, but it's also only on 67% as many platforms and doesn't have the advantage of that one time, lightning in a bottle impulse of Destiny 2 gamers who tried it, didn't like it and moved on.

@JaxonH
I agree on your switch sale estimation .
The most sold MH game in japan is MHP3 which sold more then 4 million copies.
I think rise could be equal to that number, in the most positive estimation, or a little less then that, but i would also hope that the popularity of MH games out of japan is so big that we can expect the same amount of copies, or bigger, sold in the rest of the world( 3.2 million japan + 3.8 rest of the world ??)
My impression, from the MH steam community, is that the steam number could be bigger hahaha
I just hope Rise does well for capcom so we can see other specific Switch projects from them.
MH4G sold 4 million copies in total, according to gajin hunter, if i was capcom that would be my reference number to reach and to budget my developement.

@Baobab
I think it’ll be more of a 5-2 split, JP to west ratio. Portable 3rd did basically 5m, and even the 3DS entries did 4.1 and 4.3 mil, and that’s before digital was being counted. Post switch games are outperforming 3DS entries so, 5 million Japan (not all day one, mind you), is a reasonable estimate. I do think western sales will be bigger than the 1m of MH4U and MHGU, by doubling to 2m. It’s possible we see 3 million but I’m not going to predict that.

As for Steam, it’s hard to judge millions of sales based on a community of enthusiasts devoted to one platform. There could be 2000 people in the steam community that are super diehard PC fans and love monster hunter but that isn’t necessarily representative of anything beyond that. That’s why polls of the community at large can offer such valuable information. Because the subReddit isn’t devoted to switch or PC or PlayStation or any platform. It’s just Mh fans. And that allows us to get an idea of the percentage split for sales.

That said, I’m sure Steam will do very well. World did about 6m on Steam. I expect at least 3m for Rise. Maybe 4 over time. If they enable cross save and cross play, then I could see it doing even more. But having to start all over from scratch on a game like this is a pretty big turn off.

I’m sure Rise will do incredibly well overall. I believe Capcom has already said pre-orders are aligning with their expectations. We don’t know what those expectations are but as long as Capcom is happy, that’s enough for me.

@JaxonH Stories 2 does look good. I just hope it improves on the combat, which was my one real gripe with the original (although I'm happy to see they ditched the nonsense language as well). The visual upgrade is pretty astounding, though. Comparing footage of the 3DS original to the Switch version is quite telling.

Looks like something my brother would love as a tech enthusiast.

But for me, the extreme portability of Switch (especially the Lite in magnetic flip case which fits in back jeans pocket) is what makes the portability viable. And I like playing on a smaller screen. If I play on a larger screen, I’d rather it be docked to a tv to get the extra power output. Blowing up the image that big while still on the handheld power profile will probably cause the image to suffer, on top of having to carry a huge screen around.

Crash Bandicoot 4 is now out, and it’s pretty fun. Better than the original I played in the trilogy. Looks better too. They did a good job on this port. It’s still not A-tier platforming like Mario or DKC but it’s a fun game. I archived the original trilogy, but I think I’ll keep this one installed on the main SD card.

@link3710 Right..they would do something foolish to end something that is selling them still. I mean what logic is that really? That they'd end something that is still in production?

@Socar
I don’t think they’re ending production.

That said, if they were, it wouldn’t mean they’re stopping making Switches. It would just mean they’re transitioning to a new chip for the base model and Lite. Why? Who knows. Partly why I don’t believe it. But it wouldn’t mean they’re gonna stop producing Switches.

@JaxonH Yeah I mean that's what would likely just happen. They already did it for the V2 with the Mariko so they can do the same here.

Hrm... I don't know. I do think it's possible Nintendo may stop with the old chip and have every future Switch made with the new one, regardless of a "pro" model, Lite, regular, etc.

We're really starting to hit a wall when it comes to technical limitations. I just read the Crash 4 tech analysis, and it shows how much of a struggle it's gonna be for most devs to get good results from the current Switch hardware for much longer.

We're always gonna see magic from Nintendo's first-party titles and certain third-party devs who decide to really put in the time to eke every last bit out of the hardware, but by and large maybe Nintendo is just gonna introduce the upgrade across the spectrum to keep things more uniform and accessible for devs in the last few years of the console. I'd imagine 99% of games made will still be playable on the original chip (majority of the indie stuff we see on the eShop, which frankly is a huge slice of what people are playing), but perhaps with increasingly significant sacrifices. Those of us with the old chips will just have to choose if we wanna upgrade or not, which is the choice we're gonna get with a Switch Pro anyways.

Just my current thought. I think the remainder of the year will be very interesting to see what other rumors pop up or if/when Nintendo starts officially saying stuff.

Sounds like Dragon Ball Z Kakarot is making its way to Switch.

Meh.

check out what time period Pokémon Legend Arceus, the prequel of Pokémon Diamond e Pearl could be situated.and @Magician Bandai Namco stated that was a mistake that Dragon Ball Z:Kakarot is coming to Switch, don't need to worry about that.

Nvidia aparently will stop Switch and Switch Lite soc production, what this suposed to mean?

https://www.gamereactor.eu/nvidia-to-stop-switchs-soc-product...

@Giancarlothomaz
We’ve already talked about that the last several pages.

This is a crucial video for anyone following the Switch revision news.

Nate the Hate invited John Linneman from Digital Foundry on to talk possibilities, and essentially the consensus is, the most likely outcome is a Switch XL using 7” OLED screen and a Realtek chip in the dock which would do traditional 4k upscaling, not DLSS. Linneman makes it pretty clear you can’t just bolt on Tensor cores or an extra chip for DLSS because it’s so integrated into the SoC process.

They theorize the Aula revision data mined which referenced the same X1 chip but with a different display is the “Switch XL” which is likely releasing this year (I know I had speculated it probably wouldn’t release this year but if it’s only a Switch XL, that makes a 2021 release far more likely). This “Switch XL” could still sport some increased clock speeds using Mariko and the lower power draw of the OLED screen, but nothing too significant, and... it’s not guaranteed. They think it’s more likely that it doesn’t sport any extra power or higher clocks. Perhaps if it does, the bump will be just enough to allow more games to run though, since so many games are right on the cusp of ports being possible, and Nate does claim he knows of at least one game being developed for a new revision that can’t run on the current model. But then again, that could be the Pro or Switch 2 or whatever, and the XL is basically just hey- new screen, 4k upscaling, same price, phase out the current model entirely.

The other new model is likely the next generation Switch, and is still a few years away, although they do speculate it could be another revision that will be branded as a higher tier model, such as the Pro name suggests. Which one it is, it’s hard to say, but it does seem clear that leaked info about both of these models got confused to the point people thought the more powerful model was the XL revision.

Assuming this is the case, it’s both a little disappointing (because we all want a huge jump forward), but perhaps also more realistic since a new chip architecture could present all kinds of compatibility issues. It still means we’d be getting a new revision, with OLED screen, maybe slightly more power, and 4k signal output via traditional upscaling (will at least look better than your TV upscaling), and that’s enough for me to be excited. Especially knowing there’s still the possibility of a Pro model the following year, or in the worst case scenario, a few years off with the next gen Switch.

TLDR
Switch XL- 7” OLED screen, extra Realtek chip in dock with HDMI 2.1 for traditional 4k upscaling, no extra power. Expect late 2021.

Switch Pro / Switch 2 is separate model, and could release anywhere between 2022 and 2025, depending on which it is. This is the revision that is likely upgrading to an Orin chip with DLSS and will roughly be on par with 8th gen consoles.

@JaxonH
That's not disappointing at all. That's pretty much what I was thinking - the logical to thing to me has always been the dock. Get something going on there to give everything a enough of a nudge to get over the finish line for the next few years until the real leap in technology comes along with the Switch 2.

That is, of course, if this is what ends up happening. I hope Nintendo will say something in the summer, and I really do think we'll see whatever this is in the holiday season.

@JaxonH Its still unrealistic to me. OLED isn't something that is in Nintendo's favor especially in this case. They have always preferred LCDs simply because it fits their architecture well enough and that its easier to make plastic LCDs than OLED.

That sounds more likely, at least, @JaxonH ..... If the 2nd is a few years, that'd likely be Switch 2! Which would be bc with all the current games!