@Haruki_NLI Pay attention to whether hardware or software figures are being compared.
Considering the Switch hadn't had a price cut, it's performance is pretty darn good. How much was the PS2 selling for when it crossed the 100 million units mark? Base PS4 was around £200 a long time ago. If the Switch cut to £200...
You guys had me at blood and semen.
What better way to celebrate than firing something out of the pipe?
We can base our predictions on PS data for annual sales trends. I would use Nintendo data but the fact is, Nintendo Switch has broken from previous Nintendo trends and is conforming more to normal sales trends of other consoles, where momentum doesn’t drastically slow down after just a few years.
Let’s use PS4, which is also a good comparison because their overall sales trajectories are so similar when launch aligned.
It seems FY 3.5 and 4.5 are the peak, with FY 5.5 and 6.5 roughly matching FY 1.5 and 2.5 (keep in mind, PS4 launched in November, so there’s a 4.5 mo. period, almost half a year, preceding the first full fiscal year, whereas Switch launched with a new fiscal year, so the first bar is basically 0.5 yrs and each bar after is 1 full year more.
Ok. So, let’s extrapolate that trend to Switch. Yes, it’s an assumption. But assumptions are implicit when making predictions. There is a small modification to be made though. PS4 peaked in FY 3.5 and 4.5. We have to round that up or down for Switch since its on a full FY schedule. This March will be its FY 4, and its numbers will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than last FY. And we know the peak will last for 2 fiscal year reports.
At the end of FY 4, Switch will be at roughly 82.5 million. Provided FY 5 matches the performance of FY 4 (which it should, since PS sales trends indicate a two year peak around 3.5 and 4.5, or 4 and 5 for Switch), that takes us to 110 million at the end of the 5th year.
Now. Let’s assume FY 6 and 7 match 2 and 3. Which was about 17.5 million on average for each. That’s another 35 million at the end of the 7th year, taking us to 145 million.
Then, in the final year (assuming Switch goes 8 years, which I think it will since Nintendo said it wanted to extend the life span, and 3DS lasted 7 years with software support), all it would need to do is hit 10 million more to break the record. And that includes any lingering sales into the next generation, which could account for 1-2 million if it fell short with only 8 million the final year.
I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. It’s not. Breaking the all-time record would be no small feat. But for the first time in a very long time, I think there’s a chance it could happen. And if it doesn’t, it’s almost certain Switch will at least land the #3 spot of all time, surpassing PS4 and Gameboy. That’s a pretty impressive run regardless, especially for a system so many laughed at and mocked and said would fail worse than Wii U and bankrupt Nintendo.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
There is at least going to be one or more 3D Zelda games ported for the anniversary year. At the least, they'll bring over Wind Waker HD or Twilight Princess HD for an eShop-only download for a quick buck. Literally nothing added to them or anything, just quick and dirty ports of the existing remakes.
I do agree that BotW2 may very well be 2022. I think March 2022 would be fitting given the release of the original BotW.
But I think they'll do at least one other thing. Maybe it'll be a surprise 2D remake, maybe it'll be an upscaled/optimized Ocarina of Time (YES PLEASE). Maybe it'll be GameBoy games on NSO along with the Oracle games. But there will be something.
Maybe it'll be totally out of left field like a remaster of Phantom Hourglass that exactly nobody asked for lol
@rallydefault I keep saying there's going to be at least one 3D Zelda ported lol, whether it's Tantalus or Grezzo. I'm not arguing that point. I just don't think they'll call it an anniversary thing.
@JaxonH Nintendo did say Switch was barely halfway through its lifespan in May 2020 so the Switch will be abandoned around early 2023. Whether that's a traditional approach where Switch's successor launches early 2023 or some kind of situation where a meaningful new Switch launches in 2021/2022 and get exclusives from 2023 onwards is yet to be seen.
@Grumblevolcano
Furikawa literally just said it’s halfway through it’s lifespan this week.
So ya, he doesn’t mean exactly half, as in, count the months and double it. He just means we’re roughly, approximately, in the ballpark of, being around the middle (which is a range, an interval- there’s an entire 3-4 year span that could be labeled “the middle”),, and the fact he just said so again this week proves that you can’t be that precise with it. Otherwise you could double the time from now and get 8 years. You could do the same next year when he says it again and get 10 years.
The fact is, most other consoles last 7 to 8 years. 3DS got support for 7 to 8 years. Nintendo is on record stating they want to extend the lifespan of the switch. Extend it in comparison to what, exactly? Past lifespans, obviously. And if past life spans were 7 to 8 years then there’s no way they mean “6 years” when they say “we want to extend the lifespan. Even judging by their shorter console lifespans- even those have been 6 years unless artificially cut short to 5 due to poor sales. And extending from that would mean 7-8 years. If extending from handhelds it could be 9 years. They’re gonna rock this thing until people stop buying it.
At most we’ll get a final revision in 2023 to push at the tape until 2024 or 2025. No way they’re abandoning Switch for a new generation just two years from now when Switch annual sales are still climbing and haven’t even begun to show evidence of declining from a peak (or shown conclusive evidence we’ve even hit the peak yet) which, even after that happens, the platform will be able to coast another 3 years until sales finally dwindle into single digits.
After all, we’re just getting warmed up
We’re likely going to see something similar to the Nintendo DS lifecycle at a minimum. 7 solid, strong years. But I suspect they’ll squeeze an extra 1-2 years out of Switch if they can. Clearly they want to.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
My expectation that BotW2 will release this year INCLUDES the assumption that there was an 8 month delay! I was originally thinking it should come out by christmas 2020. So I'm pushing that expectation back to christmas 2021 because of Covid. That will have been over 4.5 years since the previous game. An insane length of time for a sequel that reuses the engine and assets.
I was going to predict a range of 115m + with 99% confidence, 125m + with 95% confidence. Or 130m + with 90% confidence. I think it can do 145m + with 50% confidence, and 155m + with 15% confidence.
These are all Bayesian estimates based on my knowledge and evaluation of the numbers and trends, not hard, calculated statistics.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
@Dezzy See, the issue with that is the question of when Age of Calamity was supposed to come out. Given it seemed really polished compared to K-T's other titles, we can assume it probably wasn't rushed. So it almost certainly wasn't meant to come out after BotW 2. Would they really have had a BotW prequel in the Summer (at the earliest), and BotW2 at the holiday?
I'm assuming that was always meant to come out about a year before BotW2.
It probably didn't take them too long to actually make, given that it's almost entirely based on assets from BotW (and they pretty much just copy and paste their game mechanics code between all of their games).
If Switch 2 is BC, they can comfortably rock the Switch for a decade I feel; as that will give users a budget option with a massive and transferable library. One of perks of digital is for most games you can come in late and still you know, find the game you are looking for at retail price or less. If it isn’t the evergreens or the latest hits you are often at the mercy of the second hand market if you go in too late.
So kids, broke people and stragglers don’t pay new system price, but are still buying into the Switch ecosystem. I am assuming Nintendo will make a successor rather than a new concept though. Which they should. It works for the twins and psudo worked with ports from NES to SNES.
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Ironically the pandemic's really helped Nintendo boost Switch sales. Animal Crossing was released at the absolute perfect time as well. Now they... just need... to MAKE GAMES.
Currently playing:
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Persona 4 Golden
Dragon Quest XI S
F1 23
Xenoblade Chronicles 2
Returned to The Switcher 3 to play through the Blood and Wine expansion. I'm digging it so far: the art direction in this new region is gorgeous, I've got this nifty little house where I can store trophies, access my storage, etc. The whole region seems to enjoy a better qol than I encountered in Velen, for sure. I don't feel like I'm constantly waist-deep in corruption and human misery.
The expansion's graphics seem to be pushing the Switch a little too hard, though, as, ironically, it just doesn't perform as well as it does in the base game. On handheld, I can appreciate the beauty of Toussaint to some extent, but I learned quickly to keep this off the TV. Base game isn't too bad when docked, but Blood and Wine was pretty hideous.
Also, the "bloom" lighting is horrible, and gives everything a harsh yellow tint. Turning it off massively improves the clarity of the image. Really happy that tinkering with the post-processing graphics options was patched in.
Everyone knows real games like Wtcher can only be played on a TV whilst the only games that should be played on a handhled are ones like Snake or Tetris! ;p
@Dezzy See, the issue with that is the question of when Age of Calamity was supposed to come out. Given it seemed really polished compared to K-T's other titles, we can assume it probably wasn't rushed. So it almost certainly wasn't meant to come out after BotW 2. Would they really have had a BotW prequel in the Summer (at the earliest), and BotW2 at the holiday?
Quite clearly not! I think AoC was clearly always penciled in for 2020. Which means that BoTW 2 was never intended for 2020.
I do wonder whether Nintendo's long term plan back in 2016 was for Metroid Prime 4 to hit Christmas 2020 (obviously completely scuppered a couple of years ago with the reboot of development) or if there's another big holiday anchor project out there that we don't know about yet that slipped because of COVID (or just general development issues).
Maybe Pokemon Snap 2 was meant for Christmas 2020 and was a victim of COVID delays?
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