Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@Chaotic_Neutral
I think you're really reaching there. Just going on one of your arguments there, the number of subscriptions. What about people who are on a family membership? What about people who have both a release day Switch in a box and a Switch OLED that they use? That "80 million people don't engage with Nintendo" figure you've come up with is a bit.... nonsense....

I mean lets do it another way, there are 47 million PS+ subscriptions but only 37 million PS5s sold. Wait, how does that work? Well we're possibly ignoring there that there were 117 million PS4s sold. So between both consoles there are 154 million consoles and 47mill subs. Which is about the same ratio as NSO subs to Switch consoles

But I think the biggest mistake you are making here, and a lot of people fall for this, is thinking of the market as groups of specific people. Rather than thinking about it like it actually is. A vague blob of general groups who weave in and out of the market depending on a huge array of variables

Yes, there are some people like me and you and most people who will lurk on this forum. People who will see shiny new Nintendo hardware, want to play shiny new Nintendo game and buy the thing on day 1. And there are also the people like you're describing here, I know of people who have done this with the Switch. Picked it up during lockdown, used it to pass the time and then haven't really touched it since. Those people do exist, just like the Grandparents who picked up a Wii for Wii Bowling existed

But there's a third group of people, a group you're not considering, people who are probably the majority of the market. People like my niece. She had a Wii when she was little, moved onto a PS4 in her teens, got a 3DS for Animal Crossing, then a Switch during lockdown again for Animal Crossing and recently picked up a PS5 to play Hogwarts Legacy

Will she get Nintendo's next hardware? I mean, maybe? But she's not going to be looking at the spec sheets and comparing it to the Steam Deck and XBox One. Instead she'll be looking at what games it has and what things it can do that she can't do on her PS5 and Switch. Honestly? If Hogwarts Legacy had been timely on new Switch hardware and ran good enough? She probably would have brought that over a PS5. If Nintendo announced new hardware tomorrow and confirmed it ran TotK significantly better than the Switch? She'd probably also buy one

And you have to remember that every day there is a new 8 year old getting their first console for their birthday. Every day there is someone who puts the controller down for the last time. The market is constantly shifting, we're not talking about one person. And for every single one of those people the decision on what platform to get is about what the new platform offers. Which includes perceptions about who a console is for and what specific games that platform has FAR more than what the spec is

@FragRed Oh they mentioned it last year sometime. Life is too short for me to commit everything they say to memory I'm afraid. They literally simply said words along the lines of '...we have an idea for the next Mario Kart.' Y'know, we are always working on game ideas or hardware type thing.

With Smash, I think it comes down to the 3rd party licensing. Brawl was the 1st entry with 3rd party characters but given it was a physical only game, it's less clear when the print run stopped and whether it was because of licensing or just because Nintendo had moved on the Wii U.

Smash 3DS/Wii U also had 3rd party characters (both on cart/disc and as DLC) but because Nintendo were so eager to close the 3DS and Wii U eshops so soon after the Wii U's 10th anniversary means we'll never know how long the Smash 3DS/Wii U 3rd party licensing was (could've been 10 year license but on the other hand it could've been longer).

Which leaves Smash Ultimate as the first Smash game we'll see how long the 3rd party licensing lasts for as it's probably a safe guess that the Switch eshop will last a lot longer than the 3DS/Wii U eshops. There's 10 3rd party characters on the cart and 8 as DLC so 3rd party licensing expiring would mean either having to delist the game and DLC from the eshop and can't sell physically sell the game anymore or having to do an update which removes the characters whose license is expired from the game.

If the Smash Ultimate licensing is 10 years, I'm very sure we'd get a brand new Smash game before 2028 (probably 1-2 years after the release of the Switch's successor) meanwhile if it's longer then I could see Smash Ultimate getting more stages and fighters.

I'm sure there'll be a Mario Kart 9 and I'm sure it'll be good but I'm not going to set my expectations too high for it. Fundamentally it's a racing game with items, there's only so much you can do with that. I mean they could go for more racers, make the tracks more open or go for different types of vehicles. But I'm not holding my breath

Frankly I'd almost rather them just Mario Kart 8 again with entirely new tracks. I'm fine with that

@skywake I wish there was more opportunity for jumping over obstacles / bottomless pits while you race. The original SNES game had a couple of moments like that but they never really expanded on it. Bring back the feather!

@GrailUK The feather is already in MK8 Deluxe, it's just currently only available in battle mode. They may bring it back to races in a future update (no one expected custom item selection made available with wave 4 for example).

@Grumblevolcano Aye. I always think back to the short cut in the ghost house. You could make it in 150cc with a mushroom, but the feather was easier. I dunno, just saying I want more platforming I guess

@TheBigBlue ha ha!! Yeah, i'll take ANY Mario game at this point!!

I love Sunshine, I think a remaster with slightly reworked controls, some new content and a few QOL improvements would make it epic!

@skywake I'd mainly like to see better online features in MK9. More unlockable cosmetics (not just skins but unique weapon animations for example), better XP system with prestige ranks, a more coherent time trial system... simple stuff but it would help to keep my attention long term.

@shake_zula the cosmetics is an interesting point, think about how many costumes there are in Mario Odyssey, so Nintendo have done that before. They should give way more options around cart building, but allow for saving favourites, auto build functions etc. I liked the variety of karts in the movie, having something like that (plus much more) would be great. You could even have a radio with unlockable radio stations.

There are still some fans out there who want the return of the Double Dash concept. Don't think it'll be likely to return imo but who knows

@Aeon7 Not sure if the mechanics would work, but in the movie Mario jumps between karts. You could have that to takeover enemy karts or in a team mode jump onto a team mates to fire weapons and get an enemy kart. You could have races or a last player/team standing mode.

I bet it costs $350-$400….I would love one for $150-$200….

Again you're hyperfocused on graphics. Graphics are not the end all be all of what determines whether a game is made, it's about what they can do different gameplay wise and you're really glossing over some of the gameplay differences they've had over the years. Double Dash had 2 racers on a kart. Wii added bikes and tricking. 7 added gliding and underwater. 8 added antigravity. And the latter 3 had a pretty big impact on track design, and even the old tracks they remade changed a bit to accommodate these new features. If 9 can introduce something similar then it would still be a worthy sequel even if the graphical bump is insignificant.

Now I will confess I am struggling a bit to actually think of an idea they could do next. I was thinking with the Switch they could bring back double racers and have something with the karts being able to split in two, but that seems like a solution looking for a problem. A friend of mine has also suggested reforming gliding so it functions more like actual flying (she hates gliding because there's little actual control), but that seems a bit minor too. Grinding could be a thing looking at the rails in Sky High Sundae, but how would that work in a Mario Kart? In the end, I think Nintendo will probably come up with something along these lines to shake things up in 9, I'm just unsure of what that could be.

But one thing I will say for Mario Kart 9's potential to be different: there's a lot of things AROUND the racing that could really justify a new entry. New game modes. Changes to how they handle characters and karts. More potential for evergreen content. Now admittedly a lot of this simply boils down to "adapt Tour stuff to the console games". There's a LOT of things Tour does that would significantly improve 8. R, T, and R/T variants. Having an actual shop system instead of "randomly unlock something at X coins". Bringing back fan-favorite features such as special items and missions. Heck, they could adapt Tour's scoring system to a separate Score Attack mode or have similar "Tours" to the ones in Tour for players to compete with each other for prizes (the latter would especially be great for evergreen content as they could potentially come up with years' worth of content for this and run some every so often, essentially making it like Mario Kart's equivalent of Splatfests or Spirit events). A lot of the non-gacha stuff Tour does would make Mario Kart so, so much better to the point that it feels like a crime that we don't have some of this already.

There are a few things besides Tour stuff they could do though. One thing I think they could add is a track builder mode. Letting players design their own tracks could really give players theoretically infinite tracks to play with. Additionally, they could go open world and make the game more like Diddy Kong Racing or Forza Horizons. But I think that idea, like Forza Horizons, would be better for a subseries of Mario Kart rather than the next "main" entry since it would play way too differently.

But yeah, I vehemently disagree that there's not much more Mario Kart can do to evolve its gameplay. I think there's at least like... 2 or 3 more games' worth of stuff.

@Bolt_Strike Agreed. Creativity isn't limited by specs. Only imagination. And Nintendo manage to keep surprising everyone whilst everyone runs out of ideas lol. And people can't get why a lot of their games hold their value.

@GrailUK Nintendo has magic beans. That's the secret.

@Owl1 They are certainly brave enough to take risks and not always succeed commercially. I guess they have bad harvests occassionally lol.

@Bolt_Strike
TBH I think we're on the same page here just with different levels of enthusiasm. My point here is more that games like Mario Kart and Smash have always had significant changes in hardware to justify their existence. Whether it was the jump to 3D, the massive spec jump from the N64, the addition of online or the move to HD. There will be no such easy win for the next game

So, fundamentally, the next game is probably just going to be a brand new set of tracks/characters/items. Maybe they shuffle around some other things and add some new mechanics, they probably go ahead and use some of the new features of the new hardware. But yeah, fundamentally? Mario Kart is about going through a circuit against other racers. There's not THAT much scope there for something fundamentally different and, frankly, over the years we've more-or-less been playing the same game

What I'm saying is that Mario Kart doesn't have as much scope to be different as a game like Mario, Zelda or Metroid does. You can't really change the game that much mechanically. You can't really change the camera perspective (though you could go first person I guess? probably not ideal). More to the point, you can't go "here is a new story line or a re-organising of the level and overworld structure". You make it different with characters, tracks and items...... which is what we're getting with the DLC....

So yeah, I expect there to be a Mario Kart 9 at some point. They can't not ignore something that sells as well as it does. I'm just not holding my breath for it. Especially when we're still in the process of getting new DLC for 8

@skywake I mean, there's not a lot that ANY genre can do to evolve if your standards are that high. You must think a lot of games are rehashy if that's what you're looking for. I mean maybe you're happy with adventure games that have increased in size and scope, but where can they go next after open world themselves?

@Bolt_Strike
There's a lot more scope for changing up game mechanics in an adventure game. For example the new abilities in TotK that fundamentally change how you play that game. Or even things like the perspective shift in 3D Land or the multiplayer in 3D World. And that's before you even consider how much scope there is to shift the boundary between "overworld" and "level/dungeon"

With a game like Mario Kart it's just.... select character, select kart, select track. Not really anywhere near as much space to change up the game. We're kinda at the point where all you can really do is change the tracks, change the vehicles or change the characters. The low hanging fruit from changing hardware is gone now

This is also part of the reason why the Mario Sports games suddenly got very uninteresting