Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

Interesting. I guess it makes sense of MVG’s “Prepare to be disappointed” comment later last year.
Meanwhile there’s rumours from Nikkei also pointing to a late 2024 release …
https://metro.co.uk/2023/01/19/nintendo-switch-2-release-date...

@Magician
I don't really have any time for the youtuber speculation crowd, more interesting sitting over here and theorising independently. The fact that they all are now jumping at whatever DF has said really does nothing but confirm their lack of worth. I will say though that there are signs the ball is starting to roll a bit

That news that Nintendo is ramping up Switch production now that suppliers are a bit more free? I think it pretty much rules out 2023 now. But what it also does is suggest that something is probably going to change this year. Because while the Switch has been selling monstruous numbers it has never really been supply constrained and we are on the way down in terms of sales.

If they're expecting higher sales this year? They'll be making a move. I wouldn't be surprised if we see either a trimmed SKU (Switch Mini?) and/or a significant price cut

My expected timeline at this point is:

• Price cut and/or lower priced SKU mid/late 2023
• Announcement of new hardware late 2023/early 2024
• Release new hardware early/mid 2024

Considering the fiscal year ends in April, imo early 2024 is ruled out. MId year would be a weird time to release a new console as well, so I think the most likely date would be November 2024.

@Madao
I don't think it rules it out. If they cut the price or otherwise make the Switch as is more palatable they could easily bulk up sales even if new hardware was announced. And in any case the bulk of sales will be around Oct-Dec so new hardware in early 2024 isn't going to have a huge impact even if it was super early. There is a world where "Switch" sales are up this year AND they release "New Switch"

I personally think we're looking at more of a Wii Mini/New 2DS type deal this year. Something to bulk out the late cycle sales and targeting more price conscious consumers. Something that will eventually overlap with the next cycle with new hardware. But if they're doing that it also means they think they can bleed a bit more out of Switch. So 2023? Possible, but probably not. As early as March 2024? I think it's still a fairly strong chance. Late 2024 IMO I feel is pushing it a bit much.....

I'd point out that main reason they're citing increased projected sales here is because of production constraints easing up. Which is also the main reason cited for a mid-cycle revision having not happened and the main argument people give for why new hardware should be delayed. If supply is no longer significantly constrained I'd expect them to start preparing for the next cycle

I don't think any time of year is a weird year to release a console if you've got a compelling offering and market with an appetite for it. If second half of 2023 is a bit light on the Nintendo front, just capping off the year with Metroid Prime 4, then come mid early/mid 2024 there'll be plenty ready to jump onboard.

November and March seem to be popular times for Nintendo to release new consoles (Switch was March). Since they are planning to make a lot of Switches halfway into 2024, I assume 2025 March or November would be plausible dates for the new console, possibly announced in 2024. My personal guess is March 2025 so they can sell the first batch of hardware to the early adopters and then hype it all year while making more hardware for the holidays.

@skywake An early 2024 release would also most likely mean an announcement at the end of 2023. This could have a big impact on sales of the Switch (people choosing to wait for the successor). So I still feel it is unlikely, considering Nintendo is expecting to sell so many Switches. Unless they do a massive price cut on the Switch, I can't see them hitting their target if a successor releases early 2024.

@skywake You're the 2nd or 3rd person I've read in the last week to make a reference to a "Switch Mini". Is there a rumour or leak I've missed somewhere, or is it good old deductive reasoning? Personally I'd be more excited for an updated handheld than a "Switch 2"/new model, as I always thought the Switch Lite was just a bit too bulky.

Given the news about increasing production this year and BOTW TotK realeasing (an obvious launch title for a new system) with no news of a new Switch in sight, I think the best we can hope for in 2024 is a Switch Lite OLED.

I don't think they would want to risk holiday sales by announing this year for early 2024, so my bet is we don't see anything in 2023.

@Madao
Depends on who the buyers are. I'd suspect the sort of person who's buying into the Switch this late isn't the same person who keeps up with the latest announcements or buys into brand new platforms. I mean sure, you're right, it would definitely give some people pause and all things being equal that would be a drag on sales. But they're expecting sales growth which tells me they're going to cut the price. And a price cut this late? Could definitely drag in a new audience and counter-act any drag an imminent hardware revision might have

Basically, the person buying "New Switch" at say $550AU and the person buying late, price reduced Switch Lite at $280AU? Not the same buyer. The latter wouldn't be too upset about and is probably unaware of an imminent "New Switch" and the former probably already had a Switch

@TSR3
Not sure about others but I'm just taking a wild stab in the dark. Also I wouldn't mind one myself. Like a thinner bezel and more power efficient version of the Switch Lite with OLED screen and marginally smaller footprint. If they put out something like that at a price marginally lower than the Lite? I'd grab one, no question. Even if a "New Switch" was already out

If Switch 2 was to be released by the end of March 2024, we’d know some things about it by the fiscal year shareholder meeting in May 2023 at the latest because its release would affect fiscal year April 2023 - March 2024. Even with the Switch, while the first teaser was in October 2016 it was given a March 2017 release window in April 2016 as NX.

So I think we’ll see:

• New Switch revision in 2023 announced a few months before its launch like the other revisions (either launching with TotK or a new Mario game)
• Announcement of some sorts for Switch 2 in April/May 2025
• Proper reveal at E3 2025 (if E3 still exists by then)
• Release in Holiday 2025

This would also fit in with the comments about “middle of Switch’s lifespan” since 2020 given considering early, middle and late as 3 equal segments, a Holiday 2025 launch for Switch 2 would mean:

• Early Switch era - March 2017 - February 2020
• Middle Switch era - February 2020 - January 2023
• Late Switch era - January 2023 - November/December 2025

The Metroid Prime remaster has got me thinking about other games and the new system...
Nintendo will put a big Zelda game on the Switch 2 at some point (BOTW3?) but this is likely to be the last big game on the platform, so what do they have early on? What if they did a Metroid Prime Remaster level port of Wind Waker and Twilight Princess? They could be exclusive or cross-gen.

Other Gamecube games I'd love to see a Metroid Prime Remaster style port are:-
1. F-Zero GX
2. Star Fox Adventures
3. Star Fox Assault
4. Wave Race: Blue Storm
5. 1080 Avalanche
6. Kirby Air Ride

I want an Ocarina of Time remake as a launch title for the next system!
Thanks

I'd love to see remakes of Eternal Darkness and Rogue Squadron II

Edit: and SSX Tricky too

We need to stop talking as though we know about the Nintendo cycles as their is no uncle that works Nintendo to verify what this means at all. They can still do holiday 2023 release so all this talk about cycles is just mute since no one on here can provide Facts for us here from the inside. Both versions can exist together just some people get to big for their britches.

Donkey Kong remake! 4k ray traced 60fps at least

Jump Man FTW!!

@SwitchForce That’s what you think but my uncle really does work for Nintendo. He’s in charge of changing the light bulb on Miyamoto’s desk.

@Rambler Which Donkey Kong are we talking about here? The original arcade or the Game Boy?

Light bulb up there must be none-functioning as always..lol

He doesn’t know how it keeps burning out. But he’s seen Miyamoto staring at it flicking it on and off for hours.

Is that the light bulb that goes off over Miyamoto's head each time he has an idea?

OG popeye-based arcade version