Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@skywake i've seen you commenting in the switch thread about the Digital Foundry rumor, and it makes perfect sense. but i'm having a hard time believing nintendo won't release any hardware revision in 2023, with hardware sales declining for the first time and with Zelda and the Mario movie out between april and may.
Am i the only one who would be down for a switch lite form factor but with the complete set of features? i like my OG switch but i always found it too big.

@teo_o Yes hardware sales are declining, but the Switch is still selling more consoles annually than it was the first year on the market. When we see the annual report in May the Switch will have sold more consoles in 2022 than the GC in its whole lifecycle, the N64 in its whole lifecycle, or the Wii U in its whole lifecycle. Nintendo leadership will see those numbers and conclude that new hardware won't be necessary for a while.

Just wait...you'll see.

So, I'm a bit behind, but I've just caught up with the Digital Foundry rumour drop ...

@teo_o It's selling higher than the years previous to the lockdown years (which are outliers and can't be taken at face value due to circumstances.)

@teo_o Nintendo have been releasing new Switch hardware at 18 month to 2 year intervals. So if they stuck to pattern you'd expect some kinda new hardware next year. Personally I'd love to see an update to the Lite, preferably something a bit lighter, less bulky. Or maybe in a clamshell format. If they decided to pull the OG switch, then maybe you'd get a Lite with TV output? Otherwise, if we're not getting a DLSS model next year, then I think Nintendo will just break their previous pattern and have an extra gap year for hardware.

@TSR3 No, I wouldn't say I have bragging rights. It was just a tinfoil hat, "a broken clock is right twice a day", outside perspective of someone who has 40+ years in the hobby. I've seen the trends over the decades. Nintendo will be reactive to what their competitors in the space are doing (Steam Deck, Aya Neo Air, etc) and will squander their market lead.

Nintendo will continue to get blood from the stone, that is the Switch.

The strength of their first party games allows Nintendo to wait as long as they'd like to.

@Magician To be honest, I was always skeptical of the argument that Nintendo will hold off any new hardware until Switch sales fall off a cliff. However looking at your post on another thread yesterday ...

... I get your point now. Nintendo will screw it up, 'cos that's what they (and Sony and Microsoft too) always do.

@TSR3 I think software is going to be the area that's most difficult to get right with the successor. For example how do you improve on MK8 Deluxe and Smash Ultimate, well:

• You could continue adding DLC to those games instead of making a new one
• Take a dramatic shift for the franchise such that it's not a replacement for the previous games but rather something that can coexist with the previous games like how Forza Horizon isn't a replacement to Forza Motorsport

If Nintendo do like a Mario Kart that's pretty much the same as MK8 Deluxe but only 32 tracks (16 new, 16 old), I don't think it would do that well.

@Grumblevolcano

Just introduce a "new" battle royal mode into Mario Kart, it would be the trendy thing to do.

A dozen racers at the start, force-eliminate last position every lap, done.

I assume my check is in the mail, Nintendo. You're welcome.

@Grumblevolcano Maybe reboot the franchises? It sounds like Sakurai's done with Smash Bros, so another team would pick that one up. And maybe Mario Kart could tie in with whatever Nintendo next experiment with in VR/AR!

Shuntaro Furukawa-san was previously in charge of European Sales & Marketing prior to becoming President of Nintendo. He's a numbers guy. I think he's hyper-aware of the Switch's position in the industry. I wouldn't worry too much about him botching the launch of the Switch successor.

Merely that Furukawa is going to milk the current Switch for all it's worth.

@SlashFuture There is a very good chance that by the time their next hardware is ready, the Switch will go on to become the best selling console of all time. Now, it would take skill to mess up 'the successor to the best selling games console of all time' campaign! It might even resemble their 90's mojo!

@GrailUK You say that…… but Sony managed just that with the PS3 launch. Nintendo did that with that launch of the 3DS, both followed the best selling consoles in home and handheld markets.

@FragRed Well, yeah, good points, well made lol. Certainly took a kind of skill for the PS3 to flop so bad. A high price point is something Nintendo need to avoid (made harder by the fact the Switch isn't coming down lol!) Pretty much both the consoles you mentioned struggled in that department.

@teo_o
If I was to say one thing about the way the gaming media and most commentors talk about new hardware? I'd say that people are too focused on what it's called and when it releases. I'm not hugely interested in when and I'm not interested at all in what they name it. I'm far more interested in what it is, what it can do and how we "interact" with this transition as end users. So this DF bit is, IMO, a bit of a distraction

With that said, if what they're saying is accurate I don't think it rules out 2023 or a "Pro" type revision in terms of function. At most what it does is agree with some of the 2021 rumours and retrospectively apply some of what @Magician is arguing here to that point in time. Basically what they're saying is that there was going to be a mid-gen revision but it was shelved. Why was it shelved? Well, hardware sales in 2020 may have made it unnecessary and difficulties in manufacturing might have made it difficult. Take your pick. What does "mid-generation" here mean? A bit arbitrary methinks. Kinda reminds me of when Sony said that the next generation starts when they say it starts

In any case, I don't think that has much baring on where we are now though. I'd also add, in terms of timing more generally? I think the way we discuss this tends to put us into two groups. Those who seem to think its imminent and those who seem to think we're barely just over half way through the cycle. I paint myself into the former group here but.... I think there's some nuance. So me being me, here's another graph which is just a brain dump of what I felt was the likelyhood of new hardware coming out by month which I just fit to a curve

Basically, if you ask me to pick a year? I'm going to say 2023. But where my mind is going it'd probably be more accurate to say I think new hardware is coming out late this year/early next year. With 2025 being possible though unlikely and 2026 being.... a bit insane

I think its worth actually looking at the detail rather than just making broad strokes like this. At this stage there are only two platform holders in this space who can price aggressively. Valve and Nintendo. I honestly don't think Valve is that much of a thread to Nintendo's market share. For two reasons. For one, you don't need to buy a Steam Deck to play some Steam Deck exclusive game. Secondly I think Valve is far more interested in expanding the number of Steam users than selling hardware. The Switch is still a unique product on the market with a novelty that hasn't worn off

I don't think this is the same as where Nintendo was with the Wii. There are some similarities like the increasing gap between the "performance per dollar" on their platform vs competitors. But I think that's kinda where it ends. The Wii novelty by 2010 had worn off and also been replicated by their competitors. Then when the Wii U launched it struggled to find its own niche.

If you had asked me in 2012 why I brought the Wii U on day 1? I wouldn't have said because the GamePad offers something interesting or that I really want more games using motion controls. I would've said because this will be the platform to play HD Mario and Zelda and Pikmin 3 looks decent. Which is not a good sign when, ignoring the exclusivity of those franchises, I could have technically got that with a 360 in a bargain bin. If you ask me now why I want new Nintendo hardware? I'll say it's because the Switch design is less clunky and power hungry than x86 portables but its SoC is falling behind. And that the Switch platform is already pretty well supported in terms of releases. There is no product on the market that offers that

I think this puts Nintendo in a strong position. Does this mean they won't drag out the cycle and try and milk the Switch as it is as long as possible? Well no. You might end up being right there. It's possible. But I would suggest that even if they did do that the odds of them repeating the Wii -> Wii U transition are fairly low. They'll be nervous of it sure and I think that'll play a part. But I don't think we're heading into another Nintendo dark age

Does anyone think backwards compatibility isn't likely with a Switch 2?

I know different options for BC were discussed on this thread last year, and even if there was no consensus on methods, it seemed like nearly everyone expected some level (maybe not 100%) of BC. Plus I've been seen Nintendo's statements in the last couple of years about Nintendo Accounts and e-Shop support going forward, so I've read those as implying BC was going to happen for a future console.

If it was another youtuber I'd dismiss it as click bait, but SpawnWave's been relatively restrained regarding Switch Pro/2 coverage (and he's consistently speculated it's wouldn't happen until 2024 earliest).

I find this conversation a bit frustrating. Not in terms of any individual or anything, but just in the way that there's seemingly an unspoken assumption that there's a right way to transition, and that if Nintendo just does A, B & C then the transition will be a success and sell another 100 milion units, but if they do X, Y & Z then they'll drop the ball.

Console transition is not a scientific study/experiment where you can isolate the launch timing and determine whether that caused a success or disappointment. And you can't just look at sales figures and compare one launch with any other - every product launches at a unique point in space and time. There's more factors beyond a manufacturer's control than there are factors they can control.

@TSR3 I mean... if it uses an upgraded Tegra (which, let's be honest, it probably will) it's not impossible we'd see backwards compatibility. That's the whole reason why the Wii and Wii U had it, because the base architecture of it's processor was "the same".
Although if they do it I'm also curious how. Would they do only physical BC? only digital? Both?

@jowe_gv You need to go back about 10 pages on this thread back to September to see the earlier discussions about BC. But in summary, the issue is the change in the Tegra GPU from Maxwell to Ampere based. Unlike PCs, the graphics driver is in the games not the system. So every Switch game has a Maxwell graphics driver as part of it's package. There's various ways around the issue (both hardware and software based), but there's no certainty that Nintendo will deliver BC yet.