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Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

Posts 2,201 to 2,220 of 4,110

FragRed

Normally, with exceptions like Twilight Princess and BOTW, Nintendo stop developing games for the previous system (3DS being the exception when the Switch launched) but the more time I think about it, the more I understand when others on here say they will probably support both the current Switch and whenever the Switch 2 ends up being released like how Sony are supporting both PS4 & PS5 at the moment. But after 2 years they only focus entirely on the newest hardware.

The Switch is definitely continuing to do crazy numbers year by year without a price drop which must be a shock to the heads at Nintendo. Maybe they have seen this huge base as something to keep supporting but all marketing shows the game’s running on the Switch 2.

It’s really hard to work out how Nintendo will ever do anything though. Whatever we all say will probably be totally wrong.

NEW WEBSITE LAUNCHED! Regular opinion articles, retro game reviews and impression pieces on new games! ENGAGE VG: EngageVG.com

Magician

@skywake @kaisu

skywake wrote:

Well Magician holds the view that there won't be any hardware revision until 2025 or something.

This one understands me. Appreciate that.

Untitled

Seriously though, I concede that Nintendo may introduce either an OLED Lite or a Switch Home variant of the Tegra X1. But that the internals won't be updated until the successor is ready for worldwide distribution, and only after Switch sales figures have plummeted, say...below 5m annually. To which I feel Switch still has three years of 10m+ consoles sold potential in its lifecycle.

Just my perspective.

Switch Physical Collection - 1,234 games (as of March 12th, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

FragRed

@Magician Is it really a wise decision to wait until annual sales slump that low before introducing new hardware? That seems pretty risky, especially if part of that is because people start/have moved onto other platforms or the Xbox streaming service. And I thought they said they wanted to move away from waiting for numbers to fall so low before introducing new hardware?

NEW WEBSITE LAUNCHED! Regular opinion articles, retro game reviews and impression pieces on new games! ENGAGE VG: EngageVG.com

Magician

@FragRed It's the video game industry, there's risk around every corner. What portion of current Switch owners would be willing to spend $400+ on a half-step upgraded Switch versus a bona fide successor? I say $400 because the Switch won't get a price reduction until its final days and we're nowhere near its final days.

Nintendo have already stealthily increased the price of the Switch by selling its customers a more cost-efficient screen, an additional 32GB of internal storage, and an ethernet port for $50 more.

Switch Physical Collection - 1,234 games (as of March 12th, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

MarioBrickLayer

@Magician I agree with the general point you're making, but a drop off to below 5m seems too big, the annual sales are:-
Years
1 - 2.74m
2 - 15.05m
3 - 16.95m
4 - 21.03m
5 - 28.83m
6 - 23.06m

https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Nintendo_Switch

Below 5m would be just one third of it's worst ever sales year. I think if sales dropped off to 12m we'd see something.

The other question is, what if sales stay above say 18m per year for the next few years? What do Nintendo do? There's a new batch of kids getting older every year, maybe they can also attract even more casual gamers with the movies etc they have planned.

MarioBrickLayer

skywake

For context the Wii had dropped from 28mill/yr to 12mill/year from peak to the year prior to the Wii U launch. And it's generally agreed the Wii U was too late to launch as one of its many launch miscalculations.

The general belief in retrospect, as understand it, is that 2010 should have been the year for "Wii HD". Which in terms of sales trajectory is the year after it dipped from 28mill to 21mill. 2010 was 17mill, Switch will probably hit similar numbers in 2023. And this time they don't have a second platform to soften that transition

Waiting till 5mill would be lunacy

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Magician

It was an arbitrary number, but...fair enough.

I just feel that the Switch hasn't reached saturation.

Switch Physical Collection - 1,234 games (as of March 12th, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

skywake

@Magician
Yeah, I mean all of this is part of the most rough edge of the speculation game. I'm reading into both sales estimates, what Nintendo expects and how they want to respond. As I said with the Wii they definitely didn't, the Wii U effectively launched in what'd be equivalent to early 2026 for Switch on it's current path.

But I also think the Wii U was definitely too late and also in a technical sense far more of an upheaval. The latter probably being the reason it was late. And the Wii had definitely reached saturation. So I'm just speculating that Nintendo would want to avoid those mistakes

But who knows, maybe they have a Pokemon Red/Blue moment for Switch next year and prove me wrong

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

GrailUK

Sod it. Release a pro model and absolutely smash the PS2 record, I say. It should carry the Switch over to that 10 year milestone Nintendo are targetting, by which time we will be all waiting for the Switch 2. The only way I can see this working is the Pro model being rather expensive until the successor.

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

skywake

Was thinking about a best way to describe what I said above so I've done what I do and made a graph
Untitled

I think the graph explains itself relatively well but the general idea is that 100% means 100% of the peak sales. I've also aligned the graphs so the peaks all line up and have also then assumed that the Switch peaked in 2020. Also we are one tick further along with Switch than this graph shows I just don't really have any data I trust for 2022 given, you know, we're in 2022. I've also put a dashed line for every console that has had a successor showing sales after it launched

Explaining the chart out of the way, couple of interesting things. You can see pretty clearly how late the Wii U was in replacing the Wii. I don't really think the Switch will hold out for that long. Also interesting is the 3DS which starts a sharp decline before stopping it and almost ticking back a bit. That's the New 3DS

So basically three scenarios that have played out:
1. New hardware after the main part of the decline (Wii & Wii U)
2. New hardware fairly close to the peak (DS)
3. A hardware revision so you can drag out the tail (3DS)

Copying the DS would mean new hardware pretty much now. Copying the 3DS you might argue is what the OLED was but it could also be something like a Switch Pro. Copying the Wii U they can't really do because the Switch isn't in freefall. Copying the Wii is what @Magician is predicting and.... I think it was a mistake when they did that with Wii

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Rambler

@skywake
I like that. You can see how the pandemic years have played their part with the switch sales.
Also how the Wii reached popularity quite quickly and had a graceful decline

Rambler

Magician

Retail should tell an interesting tale for Nintendo in 2023.

Switch Physical Collection - 1,234 games (as of March 12th, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

FragRed

@Magician @skywake It definitely makes most sense to keep the hype behind the Switch branding while you are still selling a decent number of units when launching the new hardware and not do what they did with the Wii. Looking at that graph, I think it needs to be sooner rather than later.

NEW WEBSITE LAUNCHED! Regular opinion articles, retro game reviews and impression pieces on new games! ENGAGE VG: EngageVG.com

Grumblevolcano

I still feel TotK's promo cycle says it all regarding new hardware. Like for example, Nintendo decided to show up at the Game Awards for announcements this time which has been a rarity since Reggie left Nintendo but TotK was a no show (announcements were Bayonetta Origins and FE Engage Expansion Pass) even though BotW was heavily promoted there and TotK launches in May.

The explanation that makes most sense to me for this would be that more powerful hardware is launching with TotK and there's a more noticeable difference between it on the Switch and the new hardware than the difference with BotW between Wii U and Switch.

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

Fizza

So is Goldeneye on NSO EP a no-show for December then? We got Mega Drive games in the slot where N64 games would usually release and there's only 11 days left for it to come out before next year (where we'll presumably get Mario Party 3 in January). I wouldn't say I necessarily need it right now (my backlog with these services is immense) but I know a lot of people are looking forward to it and I definitely want to see what all the hype about it is like for myself.

Currently MIA for exams; see you all in a bit! o7
Mario Maker 2 Maker ID: YT1-0Q2-YFF
Please ask for permission before using my FC!
Currently Playing: Vampire Survivors (Switch)

Switch Friend Code: SW-3505-5480-3330 | Twitter:

Magician

@Grumblevolcano

I shall drink your salty tears when we get into June and no new hardware had been announced.

Switch Physical Collection - 1,234 games (as of March 12th, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

Grumblevolcano

@Fizza Microsoft haven't announced the Game Pass lineup for the 2nd half of December yet, if Goldeneye's not there then it's likely not coming until Spring/Summer 2023.

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

Fizza

@Grumblevolcano I highly doubt they'd hold it for Summer of next year considering the fact they used 'Coming Soon' in it's reveal trailer back in the September Direct. I don't know about you, but Summer of next year is not what I would constitute as 'soon'.

Spring seems like it could be a safe enough bet though (my personal prediction is mid-February).

Currently MIA for exams; see you all in a bit! o7
Mario Maker 2 Maker ID: YT1-0Q2-YFF
Please ask for permission before using my FC!
Currently Playing: Vampire Survivors (Switch)

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Judgedean

@Grumblevolcano I think the Switch 2 will be annonced just before Totk is released - maybe 1-2 months out.

Judgedean

Grumblevolcano

@Fizza I was looking at the order the games were showcased in the trailer given that's how the release dates have turned out so far:

  • October 2022 - Pilotwings 64
  • November 2022 - Mario Party 1+2

Following on from this would be:

  • January 2023 - Mario Party 3
  • February 2023 - Pokemon Stadium 1+2
  • March 2023 - 1080 Snowboarding
  • April 2023 - Excitebike 64
  • May 2023 - Harvest Moon 64 (Japan)
  • June 2023 - Goldeneye

Perhaps March onwards being a month later if Pokemon Stadium 1+2 are separate rather than together (Pokemon Stadium 2 becoming the March release).

Edited on by Grumblevolcano

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

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