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Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

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GrailUK

@TSR3 The President of Nintendo said their next hardware will be looking at more state of the art to remain competitive. We will see. Maybe a new generation of Nintendo is not too far in the future...

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

TSR3

@GrailUK Oh, that's cool. I must have missed that statement. If Nintendo are abandoning their withered technology philosophy, then maybe the latest and greatest SoC from Nvidia isn't so far-fetched after all.
Also, to answer your question about if 8nm was any good - it's what Nvidia use for their current RTX 30x0 GPUs. So it's pretty much 'current gen'. And while AMD have 7nm GPUs, I think Nvidia still has the PC performance crown?

TSR3

GrailUK

@TSR3 Ah, good to know. From what I gleaned from Nintendo's president, repurposing technology for gameplay is best for introducing new gameplay because it's more affordable to the consumer and lowers risk. And I think now Switch has been phenominally well recieved, they need to look at more current tech to keep it relevent. Not saying they have abandoned their philosophy but they are certainly looking at what's appropriate for their ideas on an individual basis.

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

skywake

Balta666 wrote:

@skywake that sounds expensive aka not something Nintendo would go for...

meh, kinda. I mean anything new is going to be on a tighter process so that in itself shouldn't surprise anyone. Especially if they're wanting to do large volumes over a long period of time. These chip manufacturers are already setup to work at particular processes so it makes sense they'd go with something like 8nm. This is also why the idea of Nintendo sticking with the existing 16nm SoC (which was already upgraded from 20nm) for another 5 years is impractical BTW.

sixrings wrote:

@skywake if it’s this much of an upgrade are we sure it’s not just a switch 2. I mean 2022 is five years since the switch came out.

I'm pretty damn confident it's not a Switch 2. Purely because assuming it's Tegra there's no practical reason why existing Switch code would be unable to run on it. I think the question is, why are you so confident that it is a Switch 2?

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"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

sixrings

@skywake I never claimed it had to be a switch 2 but I’m saying it’s five years if it comes out in 2022 and the processor then it may make sense. Also just because I’m suggesting a switch 2 doesn’t mean I think switch 1 games wouldn’t play on it.

sixrings

skywake

@sixrings
We've had this discussion before, you're arguing over semantics. Nintendo has made it pretty damn clear over the last 7 years or so that their intent is to avoid "console generations". That instead platforms would merge and every effort would be made to minimise the effort required for porting as a last resort. They started this when they built the APIs for the Switch with making ports from the Wii U easier in mind.

I don't see a company with this mindset going out of their way to make a change in platform if they don't need to. If they're going Tegra they don't need to. Therefore a successor in the traditional sense is very unlikely in my view. Feel free to call it a successor based on some arbitrary measure of performance improvement if you want some kind of semantic victory. But practically I don't see it being a successor in the way the Switch was to Wii U or 3DS.

With that said, you may end up being "right" in hindsight from a purely marketing point of view. In the same way that XBox Series X/S is viewed as the "XBox Two" even though it technically isn't really a successor in the traditional sense. But even then I would (and do) call that a hardware revision.

As a side note, you do realise that a hardware revision isn't "less" than successor right? You've just been conditioned to think it is. In the PC space pretty much everything since the 80s has been a "hardware revision". That doesn't mean in the PC space there are not generational leaps. Hell, GC -> Wii was a smaller jump than PS4 -> PS4 Pro so there are clear examples in console histories of "successors" being smaller jumps than "revisions"

Edited on by skywake

Some Aussie musics: Pond, TFS, Genesis Owusu
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

sixrings

@skywake I’m not against revisions or pro models. I bought a one s. Then upgraded to a one x. And now have a series s (that’s a generational leap mainly because of the ssd) anyways whatever do is fine by me as long as it’s backward compatible but I wish it was sooner than later.

sixrings

skywake

sixrings wrote:

that’s (XBox Series) a generational leap mainly because of the ssd

I don't think you quite got where I was going TBH. You can have "generational leaps" without a "change in platform". To be fair to the argument that the XBox Series is a generational leap? Giving the GPU direct access to very fast storage rather than going through the CPU has the potential to dramatically improve load times. Which could result in content that can't really run on the older hardware, it's a pretty dramatic shift in how the game runs. So you're correct to point out the SSD is potentially enough to call it a "next gen console"

But in the traditional sense, these aren't new consoles in the same way previous new consoles were. We're not going from PPC to x86 or MIPS to PPC. We're not going from DVD based media to BluRay based media, optical media to cartridge or visa versa. We're very likely not even going from one control scheme to something radically different. We're talking Tegra to newer Tegra. 1.5x, 2x, hell even if it was 10x faster, I don't see how they need to "change platform" for that.

Edited on by skywake

Some Aussie musics: Pond, TFS, Genesis Owusu
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Haruki_NLI

@skywake The only issue with this solid idea of rolling systems is eventually, barring some long overdue things in tech occurring, the Switch will eventually be bottlenecked by the laws of physics.

Eventually Nvidia will have the fabrication as low as it can go. It will be the most power efficient chip they can make. But look at modern gaming laptops with 30 series cards built on 7nm in them. They last an hour.

Either an eventual Switch will need a huge battery, battery tech finally evolves, or the end of the line Tegra chips are the coolest running most power efficient chips ever created.

Granted that seems to be around 15-20 years away at least.

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GrailUK

@Haruki_NLI Wish my issues were 15-20 years away hahaha!

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

Balta666

@skywake a similar conversation was happening prior to switch launch where everyone was saying the chip had to be Pascal because Maxwell was already old technology but Nintendo went with it because they don't loose money on the consoles like Sony and Microsoft do. I am not saying that it will definitely stick with 16nm but a jump to 8nm looks like a very expensive one to me

Balta666

Grumblevolcano

@Slowdive Interesting, Furukawa literally confirms the existence of the model rather than the usual vague non-answer approach Nintendo usually uses with regards to rumours.

Grumblevolcano

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Balta666

@Grumblevolcano after bloomberg among others have talked about it was no longer a "if" but a "when". The way he is talking it is looking more likely to be this year after all

Balta666

Grumblevolcano

@Balta666 I was meaning in the sense that for example in 2019 when there were all those "Switch Mini" rumours with similar levels of confirmation of a new model coming that year, Nintendo didn't straight out confirm the existence of a new Switch model but rather used vague non-answers like this:

“We acknowledge that there have been reports [about this]. Answering to rumours and speculations would end up stealing surprises from our customers and also be unprofitable to all of our shareholders, so we have no answer to that. As a general theory, we are always performing development of new hardware.”

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2019/06/nintendo_acknowledg...

Grumblevolcano

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skywake

@Haruki_NLI
Hitting the limits of Moore's Law has been something people have been talking about for at least the last 20 years. You talk about high end laptops with batteries lasting an hour that are at the bleeding edge in terms of visuals. I remember at UNI, which is a depressingly long time ago, having friends with high end Dells with batteries that would barely last an hour as you describe when Oblivion was the impressive game to run.......

I don't think the potential of Moore's Law hitting a brick wall is a particular concern for Nintendo in the medium term. There's still some room to go, especially when there are already SoCs on the market that go well beyond what the current Switch can already with the same power draw.

@Balta666
The thing is, when the Switch launched the two SoCs they could've gone with were the X1 and X2. They went with the X1 which was at the time 20nm rather than the newer X2 which was on 16nm. They then got an X1 refresh which was 16nm. Not the question is Xavier (probably 12nm) or Orin (presumably 8nm). I mean it's similar to last time for sure but.... I don't think it's quite as unrealistic a jump as you're making out

@Slowdive
Untitled

Edited on by skywake

Some Aussie musics: Pond, TFS, Genesis Owusu
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Haruki_NLI

@skywake This is true, but there will inevitably be a limit. There will come a time that fabrication can't be any more efficient short of quantum computing. A chip can only be so small and use so little power. What happens then?

In the medium term yeah it doesn't matter, and Nintendo was very smart not chasing the power ceiling because it gives them longer to get to the point Xbox and Sony are at, where diminishing returns are so great they are selling loading times as the improvement over visuals this time.

So give it 40 years 😂

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TSR3

@Slowdive So I take it kopite means Lovelace (Ada) is more like a revision of Ampere? Is there any idea how powerful Orin is compared to any of the earlier Tegras?

TSR3

GrailUK

Is it out yet? I'm not entirely sure what it is...but I want one! Hahah.

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

TheJGG

It can run Crysis, how much more powerful can you get?!

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TSR3

@Slowdive But will it run Cyberpunk 2077? 😜

Edited on by TSR3

TSR3

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