Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@link3710 Eh, I'm not sure they'll skip this year. They don't really have any financial reason to do so since the games keep selling. I think if there's any improvements it'll be gradual. Maybe they spend an extra year on 9th gen and release more DLC to fill the gaps or something, but I doubt they'll skip next year. They probably don't want to go too long without a full new release.

@Bolt_Strike Nintendo would never be able to release all of that in a year. You're setting yourself up for disappointment.

@Bolt_Strike I wouldn’t count on it. I’d say maybe half of those will happen? I don’t think Nintendo will transition from a year that most people (excluding me) think isn’t too good to a year like that. I definitely don’t think we’ll be getting Mario Kart 9 for a while. It was possible, but now that there’s Mario Kart Live in late-2020 I wouldn’t expect another Mario Kart for quite a few years.

Does anybody else think 2020 is Nintendo’s best year since 2017? There’s:

-ACNH
-Clubhouse Games
-Minecraft Dungeons
-Origami King
-Deadly Premonition 2
-Ninjala
-Suer Mario 3D All-Stars
-Mario Kart Live
-FUSER

That’s just me. I also think the August Partner Showcase was wonderful. I also think Super Mario Bros. 3 was a pretty bad game. I also think Splatoon 2 is sort of bad. I have lots of unpopular opinions as some know.

@BabyYoshi12 Nah 2019 was better imo. Smash DLC was obviously a plus for that year given I was a fan of almost every franchise that was represented, but there was also stuff like Dragon Quest XI S, Luigi's Mansion 3, Super Mario Maker 2, Cadence of Hyrule, Bloodstained, Katana Zero, Witcher 3, the DOOM re-releases, most of the PS2 era main Final Fantasy entries, The Castlevania and Contra Anniversary collections, Collection of Mana finally getting localized as well as Astral Chain which is in my opinion, the best third party exclusive on the system. 2020 was a better year for Sony imo, as even if I was disappointed by TLoU Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, Nioh 2, Persona 5 Royal and Final Fantasy VII Remake easily made up for all that in addition to that PS5 Showcase in June.

@Harmonie @BabyYoshi12 That's about what we got in 2017, and all of the development teams behind those IPs have been silent since around then. How long do you think it'll take the Zelda team to finish BotW2 knowing that they probably started in 2017? Same with Odyssey 2 following from Odyssey? By 2021, Odyssey 2 will have spent as long in development as Odyssey 1 did (they worked on it from 2014-2017 following the release of 3D World). BotW2 obviously won't be as long, but since BotW ran into development troubles because they were trying to overhaul the formula and that formula is now established, 2021 seems to be about reasonable for BotW2. Mario Kart 9 will have been in development since 2017, as Mario Kart Tour and Mario Kart Live are smaller projects that didn't take up much of their development. MercurySteam hasn't done anything since Samus Returns in 2017, so it stands to reason they've been working on another game given its relative success under the circumstances. Everything else is either confirmed or highly likely based on the schedule. Yes, it's a packed and ambitious schedule, but some of that should've been finished this year and is probably delayed to 2021 due to COVID. Hence, it's perfectly reasonable to expect a blowout year next year. If it's not, there's more going on with Nintendo than just COVID.

@Bolt_Strike If Odyssey 2 even is in development. I honestly think it is, but only has been since 2019 or something. I think Nintendo needed to work on Super Mario 3D All-Stars for a bit, so Odyssey 2 May only be starting development as far as we know. I don’t think Nintendo is always working on a game from each series at once, so I still don’t think Mario Kart 9 will be a 2021 game. I also wouldn’t call Home Circuit a “small game.” I think it would have taken a while to make.

I think that all of that would be possible in one year... just not 2021. The pandemic will likely still be a thing, so I think all of that you said (except MK9 and maybe Odyssey 2) will come in a mixture of 2021 or 2022.

@Bolt_Strike I think the most unrealistic from your 2021 predictions list is Mario Kart 9. Not expecting a mainline Mario Kart until Switch's successor, just continued support for Mario Kart Tour and gimmicky stuff like the already announced Home Circuit (I'd imagine Home Circuit sells around the same as Labo).

@Bolt_Strike I'm gonna agree with GrumbleVolcano. Metroid Prime 4 is more likely as a 2021 game than Mario Kart 9, and that's saying something. If anything, I'd replace Mario Kart 9 on your list with 'Something Splatoon Related' after all the teasing, then it'd be pretty realistic.

@link3710 I'd say Mario Golf actually. I do think something Splatoon related is coming, but I think that will happen in 2022.

@IceClimbers That's fair honestly. 3 years should be long enough for Camelot to have their new game out. Though, tbh, I think both Splatoon and Mario Golf will happen, and we won't get one of either 3D Mario or BotW2 until 2022.

@BabyYoshi12 It's highly unlikely that the same team was working on 3D All-Stars that was working on Oddysey 2. Take a look at those games. There's literally nothing new about them, save a few graphical tweaks like rendering size and frame rate.

A mainline Mario game needs people like character designers, level designers, concept artists, a significantly higher number of programmers, producers, sound technicians, etc. 3D All-Stars may have taken away from that pool slightly, but it's nowhere near enough to be the kind of game that delays Odyssey 2's production entirely.

@BabyYoshi12 Super Mario 3D All Stars probably hasn't taken a lot of development time considering the lack of improvements. It's a glorified port. They've probably spent most of 2017 and 2018 working more on Odyssey 2 than 3D All Stars.

The Mario Kart team currently only works on Mario Kart and ARMS, and Mario Kart sells much more than ARMS so that's probably their next projects. And they're not working on Home Circuit, that's being done by Velan Studios. So there's definitely an opening for that team to be working on something for 2021.

@Grumblevolcano @link3710 If anything Home Circuit adds more credence to the idea of Mario Kart 9 being on Switch. The very existence of Home Circuit throws the "one Mario Kart per console" and "Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is selling too well" arguments out the window so the idea that we have to wait for the Switch's successor for a new mainline game holds less and less water. Nintendo's going to do whatever the hell they want that they think is going to make money regardless of patterns. And a new Mario Kart game built from the ground up with new ideas that can only be done on the Switch is going to make them the most money. Home Circuit doesn't scratch that itch, it's a blue ocean side project made by a completely different developer meant to get people interested in toy racecars to buy Mario Kart, it's probably not going to sell insanely well (I predict it will do well, just not as well as a full Mario Kart 9 would). As you point out link3710, All Stars and Odyssey has different types of people working on them as well due to the needs for new assets. Home Circuit's development is likely mainly focused on the AR tech and modeling, not the Mario Kart assets. Likewise, I don't think Home Circuit is significantly affecting Mario Kart 9's development and we'll see it sooner rather than later.

Also, if you don't think Mario Kart 9 is happening, Splatoon is even less likely. Unlike Mario Kart, Splatoon already has a new release on Switch in the form of Splatoon 2 (unlike MK8D which is a port), and their dev team just finished ACNH this year. I think Splatoon 3 will be on the Switch's successor in 2023/2024, not next year.

@Bolt_Strike the thing with Home Circuit is that it complements Mario Kart 8 rather than replaces it, it's easy to justify purchasing both as they are distinct experiences. Mario Kart 9 won't be the same. Of the circa 25 million people who have bought Mario Kart 8, how many are casual gamers (or non hardcore Nintendo fans) who may look at it as more of what they already have and will skip it?

Nintendo don't have endless developers, i just can't get my head around how they could justify a large development team working on a Mario Kart 9 for the switch when 8 is still there best selling game and fans are desperate for so many other games.

Given the development cycle of a game and where we are in the Switch lifecycle, I wouldn't be surprised if they are working on it for the next console right now.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, i love Mario Kart and it would be a day 1 purchase for me, i want new circuits etc, but I just can't see it happening.

@MarioBrickLayer Casual gamers aren't going to overthink this. A good number of them will probably think "I like more Mario Kart, yay!" and go ahead and buy it. If Mario Kart is fun to them they won't care about it being a second entry. And if they can get even a fraction of that 25 million, then combine that with a few more million people who bought the original MK8 and didn't double dip on Deluxe, there should be enough of an audience for 9. I expect it to sell 10-15 million easy, and while that would be much lower than Deluxe it's nothing to sniff at.

@Bolt_Strike What about the Switch successor though, you may have gotten decent software sales for MK9 on the Switch but you screwed over the launch window for the Switch's successor. At best there's a MK9 Deluxe type release in the launch window but that won't be as successful if the Switch successor plays Switch games via backwards compatibility. At worst, you have a Wii U type situation where Mario Kart appears too late in the system's lifespan and the system flops.

Let's be honest here, Switch would've been nowhere near as successful as it was if instead of MK8 Deluxe in the launch window you had MK9 in like 2019.

@Grumblevolcano If MK9 releases in 2021, MK10 should be ready by 2024. This would probably be about the first or second year of the system's lifespan. i see the following titles releasing within 2023/2024 based on the scheduling:

-Splatoon 3
-2D Mario
-2D Zelda
-Mario Kart 10
-Prime 4 (cross gen release)
-Yoshi
-Fire Emblem? (not sure if this will be late Switch or early Switch successor)

There's some heavy hitters in that lineup that should drive early sales of the system.

Long as they don't do something stupid like skipping over Mario Kart 9 and going straight to 10 (or X) like everyone else does.

I've been thinking, does it really make sense to be following up all this big next gen news with a Partner Showcase? I mean next week is the big one, Sony is finally going to show PS5 stuff on Wednesday and given Phil Spencer said the Series X/S news that was leaked was planned for next week it seems reasonable to think there'll be Series X/S game announcements next week too.

Sure Nintendo does have 3D All Stars but all signs are pointing towards that collection not even being available physically after Friday.

So looking ahead, here's what I think the lineup will look like in the transition to next gen (I changed my mind a bit on some things, but I think the schedule will generally look like this). I'll stick with first party for this, they're easier to predict that way):

2021:
BotW2
Mario Odyssey 2
Mario Kart 9
Metroid 5
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl remakes
3D World + Bowser's Fury
Zelda 3D remasters

Again, this is probably going to be a jam packed year with a lot of the development teams who released stuff in 2017 releasing new games, along with a Switch Pro will release this year along with them. Thinking about it again, it is possible 1 or 2 of these releases get delayed to 2022, but I do think this is generally the plan. There should be a lot in the works for this year and this should serve as the Switch's second wind much like how the Wii saw many titles like Super Mario Galaxy 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby's Return to Dreamland, and Skyward Sword breathe new life into the Wii in 2010/2011.

2022:
3D Kirby game
DLC for Diamond/Pearl remakes
New Pokemon Snap
Metroid Prime Trilogy
Fire Emblem
Warioware

Here's where the schedule gets a little lighter as they prepare for next gen. Prime 4 was likely planned for this year after the Reboot but gets pushed back due to COVID, so this is when Prime Trilogy releases to hype people up for that. Pokemon also pushes next gen a year due to COVID and backlash from SwSh. That leaves us with a handful of titles for the year as their development teams are preparing for next gen. Most notably, Kirby realizes a dream years in the making by going full 3D. I was thinking New Pokemon Snap releases in 2021, but considering the scale of the game, it's possible it gets pushed to 2022.

2023:
9th gen Pokemon (Switch)
2D Zelda

The Switch's successor isn't quite ready yet so the schedule again remains pretty light. 9th gen Pokemon anchors the year and takes some steps forward from SwSh but still isn't quite the dream open world Pokemon game people want, but still sells gangbusters as usual. Zelda also squeezes in one last 2D game on the Switch due to not having a new release (as Link's Awakening DX is a remake).

2024:
Splatoon 3
2D Mario
Metroid Prime 4
Xenoblade Chronicles 3
Yoshi
9th gen Pokemon DLC

The Switch successor releases this year and we get a blowout of new releases at launch. Splatoon 3 and 2D Mario finally release giving the year some heavy hitters out of the gate, with 2D being a grand new entry in the series that finally moves on from the NSMB/Mario Maker rut they've been stuck in for the last decade and a half. Prime 4 also gets pushed to this year to release cross gen BotW-style and while it doesn't sell gangbusters, it does do very well by Metroid standards and gives the series more mainstream appeal. Xenoblade and Yoshi also launch this year rounding out a packed year. Meanwhile, 9th gen Pokemon gets its DLC still remaining on the Switch. If they want to be bold, they could possibly release a definitive edition with the main game + DLC that year on the successor and make it compatible with the Switch version as well as adds in some enhancements for the new console. I was thinking Mario Kart 10, but that game might get pushed to 2025.

Wild Cards:
Pikmin 4
Donkey Kong
Smash
Star Fox

I have no idea when or if these will release anytime soon, so I'm listing these separately. Pikmin 4 was supposed to be released ages ago, but has gone MIA. It might be cancelled, or it could be imminent. Donkey Kong could use a new release, but with Retro tied up with Prime 4, who's working on it? Smash is a heavy hitter, but Ultimate seems to be a definitive edition and Sakurai may be close to retirement, so we may not get another one. Star Fox seems to pop up every once in a while, so could we see one again? Maybe, maybe not. We did get a pseudo-Star Fox game in Starlink: Battle For Atlus, so that might hurt the chances a bit, but you never know.

Direct rumours have gone kinda quiet. Meanwhile I am playing the original borderlands.