Sorry for the text wall. I personally will buy the Switch eventually if only for BotW and Odyssey, but I also bought a Wii U (and so did all of us)- it didn't save the thing from flopping. I want the Switch to do well, break records even, see early adopters, etc. I don't want Nintendo to bow out of the console race. However, I'm a fanboy, but not a blind one- I think the Switch is screwed. Why? Because of its competition. No, I don't mean the Xbox One, PS4, or even PC. I mean phones.
The Switch's main gimmick, the competitive advantage it supposedly has, the main marketing point, is its portability. Its not the games line-up (which is super lacking), its not the specs/horsepower, not the controller (already done in the Wii and Wii U), and not the online. I wouldn't call it a handheld like the DS though it's definitely closer to one than a Wii U. But this is a world where anyone who can shell out 360+ USD for a new gaming console + game can also afford a smart phone, and which one is more useful? Which one do you need in today's world and which one is an accessory that you can live without? Which one do you and pretty much everyone you know already have? My point is, if you can afford a Switch, you can and probably already have purchased a decently new (max 5y/o) phone. Smart phones are insanely popular with youth (the Switch's primary target audience) and adults alike. Every year they become more popular, widespread, and demographic breaking than the last (younger children own one, older adults own one, etc.). You may even be reading this on one.
Smart phones play cheap, time wasting games that even the average gamer, let alone a casual consumer, can enjoy, can text, use data internet, check social media, listen to music, read books, talk to friends (in other words, everything a Switch can't do). When is the Switch's portability even useful? When you're away from home... but not if you're busy at all: doing anything outdoors, driving, at work (obviously), or if you're in another home that you could have brought a home console to anyway. The Switch would only be useful at those rare times when you're on the go in one spot for a long time (AKA a public transport commute) in which case your phone does way more, has longer battery, is far easier to carry, and you already have one and carry it everywhere anyway. Owners always have room in the pocket/purse to carry them everywhere (unlike the Switch) and do so because they're communication devices as well (unlike the Switch). Is the average consumer going to also carry a Switch everywhere and start up a AAA title whenever they have a break? We might, but again, I'm talking about the market that Nintendo absolutely needs to win back: everyone except us. Why do that when they can just skip the expensive Switch and use the expensive entertainment/communication device they already have and will be buying a new one of within a couple of years anyway (new Android/iPhone release)? Again, who the hell is going to buy this except us Nintendo fans who'd buy it if it were a Gamecube on wheels? People who have a long commute but would rather play Mario than surf the web, Facebook, text, sleep, read, play app store games, etc.? Not a huge enough demographic when this is the generation Nintendo needs to win back public and shareholder trust and recoup losses from the Wii U.
This is why I think the Switch is doomed. It's got marketing way better than the Wii U, the mystery campaign worked well, and the limited stock to create artificial demand seems to be working. But this smart phone competition issue combined with other horrible decisions like the weak launch lineup, lack of a bundled game, inflated accessory prices, paid online, and weak hardware (docked it runs Breath of the Wild at 900p/30fps when Wind Waker HD was 1080p/30fps on the Wii U) are going to eliminate its potential success. My guess is it'll do better than the Wii U, not as good as the N64. Thoughts?
tl;dr The Switch's portability is competing with smart phones and it has literally no chance
You might not be wrong, but your argument is a bit reductive. It's not competing on portability alone. The Switch is not designed to replace smartphones at all, else we would have seen smartphone games and better battery performance. It's competing with console-quality video game software that can be played anywhere. That isn't something that smartphones provide.
I agree the question remains to whom this will appeal, but it's a misleading to suggest this device has any aim or even need to replace mobile gaming.
I think it's too early to judge some of the other things. The games lineup could look much better by the far more important holiday season. Nintendo still has time there. The hardware performance can't really be judged yet either. For example, according to Nintendo The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild aims to hit 1080p60fps by release. The demo on the floor is not the final build of the game. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe also aims to hit better performance than the showroom demo. They might not hit better figures, but we should wait a bit on that point.
We'll see what happens. Personally, I think the pricing on this stuff will be the toughest part of all this for Nintendo to overcome, especially without any solid pack-in software.
Its hard to say the switch will flop before its even out.
He's the thing about the wii u, it was VERY promising when first revealed and when it first came out. Nobody said the wii u sucked or would fail until its mid 2nd year of not much content going on for it.
The switch will probably do fine, but if in the next 2 years we don't get any new big exciting titles for the switch, it will become Wii u status, but right now its launch games look super strong, there's actually a reason to buy the console on launch instead of waiting with the current games on the slate.
Saying the switch will flop already is pretty unfair when its already stronger than the wii u launch wise and we don't know whats to come for the system.
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Idk about that. When I first got my iPhone I downloaded a bunch of stuff enthusiastically. But the quality is just not there compared to "real" games. They won't be able to emulate the success of the Wii, but it will have it's place in the gaming world.
It's pretty much a given that this will surpass the Wii U and likely even the GameCube in sales. At that point it can't really be considered a failure.
This thing isn't trying to replace mobile. They can coexist just fine, just like the Xbox One and PS4 are coexisting with PC.
You might not be wrong, but your argument is a bit reductive. It's not competing on portability alone. The Switch is not designed to replace smartphones at all, else we would have seen smartphone games and better battery performance. It's competing with console-quality video game software that can be played anywhere. That isn't something that smartphones provide.
I agree the question remains to whom this will appeal, but it's a misleading to suggest this device has any aim or even need to replace mobile gaming.
What Nintendo intends for the Switch to compete with and what it actually will compete with may be different things. Nintendo has already made it clear and even flat out admitted they're not in the traditional console war with Sony and Microsoft anymore. They're on their own blue ocean with the Switch. Just because this can play AAA games and smart phones can't doesn't mean it's in a different league- its a portable entertainment device. Most people don't need to carry multiple portable entertainment devices. The moment Nintendo markets this as a "play it on the go device", two things happen: 1) Us Nintendo fans buy it anyway because we need Zelda and Odyssey but not because its portable and 2) The average consumer looks at it, sees it as a $300 tablet device that charges $60 for what few Nintendo games it has that are worth buying, and says "I'll keep my iPhone, thanks."
The hardware performance can't really be judged yet either. For example, according to Nintendo The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild aims to hit 1080p60fps by release. The demo on the floor is not the final build of the game. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe also aims to hit better performance than the showroom demo. They might not hit better figures, but we should wait a bit on that point.
Digital Foundry confirms 900p/30fps with drops to 20fps... Are we sure they ever said they are aiming for 1080p? They'll maybe iron out the FPS drop issue by release but it's 2 months from today- I doubt they have time to optimize the game for a higher resolution.
Yea ... like others have said, of course you MAY be right. No matter what you say: Switch will fail, Switch will succeed, you have a 50/50 chance at being right lol
But smart phone games ... for a "gamer," which would apply to many folks like us, smart phone games just don't hold up. I, too, was excited a few years ago to get my shiny new smart phone: a world of Angry Birds, cutting ropes, and running through temples awaited me! Everybody was buzzing about these games - they have to be amazing, right?
Big nope. I was surprised to find out that Angry Birds is basically just a rip-off of those primitive physics games that would be free online in the early days of the Netscape browser lol Temple Run and its million clones is, uh... fun to play for a minute here and there when you're walking your dog? I don't even know. I played it a few times, just sorta shrugged, and moved on. I downloaded Hearthstone for my iPad last year, played it a few times, and... honestly, I don't even know where my iPad has been for a few weeks. And lets not even talk about stuff like Square's horrendous money-grabs on smart phones.
My point is that "gamers," and there are a lot of them, want something WAY more than what smart phones offer. And those "casual," "mainstream" people? Gotta hope and pray on word of mouth from their friends and such - that's how the Wii caught on.
My point is that "gamers," and there are a lot of them, want something WAY more than what smart phones offer. And those "casual," "mainstream" people? Gotta hope and pray on word of mouth from their friends and such - that's how the Wii caught on.
I mean that's my point- this won't sell if it only appeals to hardcore gamers who are also Nintendo fans. Hardcore gamers that just want a home console have the Ps4, Xbox One, and PC to choose from, the first two are cheaper than the Switch and have a wayyyy bigger library that isn't slowing down. Plus, with PS4 Pro, Xbox One S, and Project Scorpio, there's even more options for those who are willing to drop some serious $$$. I believe the Switch will fail to grab core gamers because of its bad line-up and fail to grab casual audience because a portable gaming-exclusive device isn't much to them. That leaves it with sales from us- hardcore gamer Nintendo fans and, as the Wii U showed, that's not enough to succeed.
@mathoma5
See, I disagree, because my feeling is that any launch lineup that includes a brand-new, "full" Zelda title is not a "bad" lineup. And I know you and others will scoff at that thought, but I stand by it. I've said it in a few of the threads around here: You people are severely underestimating the impact of a Zelda game, especially a Zelda game after so long (how long has it been since the last new, 3D entry? 5 years? 6 years?)
If BotW comes out to outstanding reviews, I'm telling you: just sit back and watch the discussions of "system seller" become very real.
@mathoma5
See, I disagree, because my feeling is that any launch lineup that includes a brand-new, "full" Zelda title is not a "bad" lineup. And I know you and others will scoff at that thought, but I stand by it. I've said it in a few of the threads around here: You people are severely underestimating the impact of a Zelda game, especially a Zelda game after so long (how long has it been since the last new, 3D entry? 5 years? 6 years?)
If BotW comes out to outstanding reviews, I'm telling you: just sit back and watch the discussions of "system seller" become very real.
Uh... a line-up that includes Zelda but practically nothing else looks bad. Arms and 1-2 Switch are overpriced motion gimmicks by most opinions I've seen but I guess we'll wait on that.
One game, or even a few games, can't sell a system to non-Nintendo fans. The Wii U flopped despite having a few fantastic, hugely popular, highly rated titles like Super Smash Bros, DKC Tropical Freeze, two HD Zelda remasters, and Mario Kart 8. You can't seriously think a great score on BotW is going to convince several million people to drop 360 USD on the console + game just to see what all the fuss is about. It's going to need both a long line-up of great exclusives and decent 3rd party support (AKA much better than Wii U's and Wii's).
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Topic: I want the Switch to succeed but I genuinely think it will fail because of smart phones
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