Topic: Are we every going to get a New Mario Kart Actually Made for the Nintendo Switch?

@rallydefault Not to mention that Nintendo starts working on games 3+ years before they're ready to release. So Nintendo would've had to make a decision about whether or not to make a second Mario Kart game back in 2017/2018. And if the Switch is selling that well with a Wii U port from Mario Kart, how do you think an original entry would do? Probably good enough to warrant making one. They've probably been working on Mario Kart 9/Mario Kart World/whatever since then and should be ready to show it off soon.

So... Nintendo Race Maker on the Switch 2 then?

MK8 has enough other IPs and vehicle type to drop the Mario Kart moniker for the next iteration.
If you do away with it, you could have submarines, boats, jet planes, etc.

While MK8D continues to sell millions of copies every year?

I have my doubts.

Nintendo will probably hold MK9 in reserve as a launch title for the Switch successor.

@Magician
MK8D will sell well no matter what, especially to parents buying stuff for their kids. I don't think MK9 will be out until 2022, at any rate.

@mowerdude No. It won't be until the successor. We already have two on the Switch, I'm pretty sure MK Live exists so they could make a new Mario Kart without sabotaging 8DX's sales.

Mk live is an experiment like Labo, hardly counts, nor does an upgraded port.

As much as I’d love it, I don’t see it happening anytime soon, with MK8D’s huge success. At the rate it’s going, Nintendo doesn’t even need a big holiday release every year. If a theoretical MK9 was revealed next year, I’d be as happy as the next guy, but a port of 8 in addition to Home Circuit makes it super doubtful. I could see 9 as a game that could release in the first year or so of Nintendo’s next console, but for the Switch, I doubt it.

@rockodoodle Whether or not you consider them as 'counting' (personally I don't either) doesn't matter to Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 DX is the second best single platform sales of all time, only behind pack-in titles Wii Sports and Super Mario Bros and Pokemon Red/Blue/Green/Yellow (combined), and likely Minecraft PC sales (I don't have data on that).

To put it into perspective, the game has outsold any single platform Grand Theft Auto V has been on.

The game is so far and beyond any expected sales and still turning in great numbers month after month, there's no way they'll muddy the waters and risk lowering total sales by introducing a true direct competitor.

@link3710 Nintendo doesn't solely make decisions based on what's profitable, they also try to do something new and quirky. If they have a fun idea that they think will sell, they go for it, plain and simple. What matters more as far as the possibility of another Mario Kart game on Switch is whether or not they have an idea for what to do with a Switch Mario Kart game (which they probably do) and whether or not it'll sell well (which considering Mario Kart games always sell like hotcakes, it will). 8 Deluxe selling this well for this long is a nice bonus, but with 8 being a 3 year old port of a 6 year old game, they're probably ready to do something new with Mario Kart and get even more people back into the series.

And with as much as 8 Deluxe is selling now, 9 would be selling even better anyway. A new game with marketing behind it is always going to outsell an old game that hasn't been relevant for several years. If 8 Deluxe is selling this well without any real marketing or support pushing it this long, what do you think a new game is going to do?

@Slowdive This is the big difference between GTAV and MK8, Rockstar has been updating GTAV for the past 7 years and ongoing meanwhile Nintendo ditched MK8 support in 2015 and MK8 Deluxe support in 2018 (latter only got a few small updates like Labo support and BotW content being skins for the existing Zelda content).

@Bolt_Strike Oh, I'm 100% certain there's a new Mario Kart in development. But financially, it makes far more sense to have it ready to be a launch title on the Switch's successor. Part of the reason for the Switch's success was having a Mario Kart day 1, and I think they'll want to repeat that. When I say it's about money, sure they'd make more money short term releasing MK9 on Switch... but saving it for the successor system could help an entire new ecosystem succeed.

While they don't solely make decisions based on money... I do think we're at the point in the system's lifespan where it makes far more sense to do hold it back for the next system.

@link3710 If Nintendo is telling the truth about the Switch's lifespan, we won't see the successor until 2023/2024. They can release one soon and have the next one ready for the beginning of the next system's lifespan. We are most certainly not at the point where they need to start reserving games for the successor's launch, that'd be more 2022/2023. In fact at this point I think we might see a second wave of major Switch releases, similar to what the Wii had in 2010/2011. We already know BotW2 is happening, I think that will also be accompanied by a new Mario Kart, a Mario Odyssey 2, and a 3D Kirby game in the next 2 years (possibly some others such as Diamond/Pearl remakes, 9th gen Pokemon, and Metroid Prime 4).

Maybe they release an open world game for this reason..... I just think they will need some big releases to keep console sales moving. Maybe they can do this without a new Mario Kart. Yeah, they will cut into sales of deluxe, but it sold 2.2 million from June ‘19- June ‘20. A new MK would easily pass 20 million in a year.

@Bolt_Strike Could they really? A Mario Kart game is going to take at least 3 years to develop. So to have one ready for launch, it'd need to enter development (at the absolute latest) next year, assuming the successor isn't until mid to late 2024. But honestly? I'm expecting them to reserve more along the lines of 4 years to develop the successor, as they'll probably go through multiple prototypes before starting real development. My guess is that development started sometime this year, maybe last, and the game will be ready by the time the Switch's successor launches.

The vast majority of full-size games that will release in the Switch's lifespan are already in production after all... save most likely some Pokemon games thanks to their rushed development schedule. And we've all seen what that causes.

EDIT: I'd like to point out my numbers are based on the fact that Nintendo has never had two brand new main series titles for a subseries in development simultaneously

@link3710 They don't wait this long to start development for the next game, for a series like Mario Kart that's so insanely successful, they start working on the next one as soon as the previous one is finished. So they would've started the next game in 2017, not now. So the next game releasing in 2021 (delayed 1 year due to COVID) and the game after that releasing in 2024 is likely the plan.

@Bolt_Strike Except, since 2017 we've gotten two major spin-offs for a series that has never had spin-offs in the past. It's entirely possible they didn't start a new game in development, instead of focusing resources on series that weren't on Switch at all, while working with third parties to keep the series moving.

@link3710 Mario Kart? Mario Kart has had spinoffs. They've had the GP games before, the presence of spinoffs doesn't mean all that much. Neither Tour nor Home Circuit (in terms of the game development side of things) were all that intensive and probably had little to no help from the Mario Kart team, so I can't see that derailing development of the next full game.

As of right now Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the only Nintendo Switch Mario Kart other than live.

It’s hard to call MK Live a major spinoff.... and Tour is on different hardware. Nintendo has said, however, that they intended to use mobile apps to create market awareness and to channel potential buyers to the Switch. This is my hope with both “spin-offs.”

Major spinoff or otherwise, Home Circuit is certainly an expensive purchase.

Nintendo will presumably be aware of all the wallets on cooldown from picking it up, so it would seem unlikely that there'll be another game in the franchise soon.