Unless you've been living under a very sad and lonely video game-deprived rock, you'll no doubt be aware that the Switch is selling like the very best hot cakes the world has ever seen. In a rather enticing statement, Nintendo's Shigeru Miyamoto has hinted at the possibility that the console may be able to take things one step further, potentially breaking the typical trend for console life cycles that we've seen for a number of years.
Dating all the way back to the release of the SNES in 1990, Nintendo's home systems have always released in five or six year increments; the Nintendo 64 arrived in 1996, the GameCube came five years later in 2001, the Wii was another five years down the road in 2006, with the Wii U launching six years later in November 2012. Of course, the Switch released last year in March 2017, just shy of the usual five year mark since its predecessor, but this was only caused due to the Wii U's disappointing sales. A very similar pattern can be found for the home consoles of Sony and Microsoft, too.
Miyamoto-san's statement came from a recent investor Q&A. When asked where he would place the Switch in terms of its life cycle, he responded with the following:
"When you think about what can be done with the Nintendo Switch as a device that can be taken on the go and that every person has in their hands to play, you realise it has many features not available on any other hardware to date," Miyamoto said. "Nintendo also has a system in place whereby the software developers focus on these hardware features in their development efforts for the continuation of the Nintendo Switch business. Up until now, the hardware lifecycle has trended at around five or six years, but it would be very interesting if we could prolong that life cycle, and I think you should be looking forward to that."
There is no doubt that we are currently witnessing a very exciting time for the industry as a whole; the Switch is breaking records left, right, and centre, and this new surge of popularity will only spur on Nintendo's competitors, too, hopefully resulting in bigger and bolder releases across the board.
How long do you think we'll be seeing the Switch on game store shelves? Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments below.
[source nintendo.co.jp]
Comments 74
Well Nintendo handhelds always have long life spans so they must be looking at it in that category. Think we can expect upgrades over the years as well. Better battery life models etc
Yes, this can happen. The 3DS is 7 years old.
If the 3DS can do it, I don’t see why the Switch should be exempt from doing so... but it’s going to need some grade A games flowing throughout the year to do it of course; patiently waiting for a new Mother/Earthbound and a F-Zero to be revived on it... Ice Climbers too, just for old times sake. 🤷🏾♂️
This news is a few days old. And the Q&A contained more interesting information.
Page 2, question 2 below:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180209e.pdf
Q2. This is a question about Nintendo Switch Online. The official start of service has been significantly delayed, so has anything changed during this extended development period? Also, how do you plan to popularize the service?
Tatsumi Kimishima (President and Representative Director):
"We view the online service as one component of our efforts to diversify how our games are played and to get people to play more of our games. That is why we want to apply substantial resources to the online service, with the thinking that we will devote our energies to making this a for-pay service.
As for how we plan to popularize the service, it is less about the mechanism and more a question of what kinds of products we can offer, and the spread of the service will depend on whether consumers want what we offer. Please give us a bit more time to announce more details about the service. I think that announcement will convey to you how we plan to popularize the service."
Takahashi:
"We have some ideas about how to make Nintendo Switch Online appealing when it becomes a for-pay service, so I think our next announcement will be worth the wait."
And as for the Switch lasting longer than 5-6 years? In its current guise it won't. There'll likely be a Switch XL or Pro at that stage.
Makes sense from a handheld standpoint, you just have to see the DS and 3DS. But from a home console standpoint, it will be 2 generations behind whenever the next PS/Xbox releases. Will be interesting to see how it holds up, especially as by that point 4K/HDR TVs will likely be much more widespread, and the Switch cannot do either. I for one would not grumble at them following the X1X/PS4 Pro model and releasing an X2 variant long before this timeframe. They've set precedent already with the New 3DS, although that was somewhat half-arsed
they might be able get the online sorted by then
It would be nice, although:
-PS3 and Xbox 360 had unusually long cycles. Launched respectively in 2006 and 2005 and still alive when their successors came out in 2013, let alone the fact that still receive games nowadays, at least some.
-I see the Switch getting beyond those 6 years, but I'm sure it will have enhanced versions, which in turn will piss early adopters like me off.
@RETRO_J Yes but the 3DS has had several new models. The Switch is going to need the same, in time.
@RETRO_J
Do you mean look at the 3DS XL, the 'New' 3DS, and the 2DS?
This is totally doable, the problem is that with the specs already being considered behind the competition, how will Nintendo continue to entice third parties to continue supporting such aging technology when the competition is getting more and more powerful?
I believe the concept of the Switch can certainly live on for quite some time. As for the specs, it will be far behind even smartphones in 5 years.
If 3DS can do it then why can't Switch? But the 3DS of 2018 is vastly improved when compared to the 3DS of 2011 and I expect the Switch to follow the same path.
@Moroboshi876 I don't see how hardware revisions will p*** off early adopters. You buy a console, it plays the games it doesn't stop playing the games when new hardware comes out.
@Morph Yeah, unless it doesn't. New 3DS.
As soon as Nintendo revealed the Switch, it was obvious that the system would have multiple iterations. Nintendo supporting the system for longer than most of its consoles is an extension of that thought. Nothing too surprising about this news, but it's good to see Nintendo acknowledge that Switch is portable and that Nintendo handhelds last longer than their consoles, although the admission seems passive, it's still reassuring.
Also, can we all just collectively admit that Switch is replacing the 3DS? Seems like NL dancing around that issue.
Only if they expand the internal memory
Honestly the switch will stay atop sales(monster hunter and dragon fighterz are a blip on the radar) until we get a ps5/Xbox whatever as Nintendo being able to advertise having portable console quality on the go will work with the mainstream until then(atleast in North America as I don't see anything short of a vita 2 challenging it in japan)
I'd say they will release an updated Switch with full backwards compatibility every 2 years or so. That's how you keep the name going. Unless, god forbid, it turns into the Wii brand, which I doubt it will (fingers crossed).
Literally 4 of my friend, who are not mad into gaming at all just bought a Switch each over the past week. Nintendo are killing it! I am pleased cause now I have even more real life friends who love mario kart lol. One even bought BotW. I'm pleased
Nah 6 years should be max, so when the PS5 and Xboxtwo come out and they twice the power of what they are now, Ninty still has Switch? Nuh uh, 2021 Ninty to reveal new console and it must be powerful enough to get games from 3rd parties at that time so at bare minimum where the X is now... No portable stuff or gimmicks just a GameCube 2.0 ...
Um...nintendo...most systems have been around for more than 5 years now, it's been like that for quite a while. PS2, PS3, Xbox 360, even the Wii and DS have lasted for more than the 5-6 year mark, it's just depending on the company and how well the systems continue to sell...if the system starts declining in sales, bring out a new one, but the companies (at least Sony did) will continue to make games for both consoles. The only problem I see with nintendo, is that as soon as their consoles hit the 4 year mark, nintendo technically quits making games for it and focuses their attention onto their new console, granted we may get 1-2 games for the current one...just comes down to the other companies to bring games to it. Other than that, hope the Switch does last for a while, I'm glad to finally walk into a store and see a massive retail section for a nintendo console again (the Wii U's was lacking in this, and looked like the VITA's section...hidden). Glad nintendo is starting to get up to par with the world! Maybe next...a console that can compete and be up to par with the others, like the good old days!
@noobish_hat I agree. They own the handheld market, and this is something that is helping to sell the console more. My wife and I use it as a handheld, barely ever hooking it up to the TV screen, and it's really helping to push the system forward. Advertising it as a really powerful handheld is the best idea for them, considering it's underpowered in the console field.
I guess we'll see. Wii sold like crazy for 5 years then the last 2 years it really struggled before Wii U was released. That's almost a problem of having a console that's so successful upfront. I'd almost rather race to 100 million sold in 5 years and look at a replacement that could continue to sell 20 million units a year instead of try to wring more sales out of a console that already has a high attach rate.
It'll also be interesting because PS5 Xbox2 will likely be out in 2020 so the market could change a lot by then. Particularly if Sony does anything in the handheld/hybrid space. They indicated they couldn't ignore the Switch success and they've had a successful handheld before (PSP).
I do believe this will sell for a long time but there is no way in 2020 or beyond that this can be their main console. Unless they want it to be an Nintendo only/indie machine and have no 3rd party triple A titles like Doom or Wolfenstein 2 on the system. Maybe developers can make games to scale easier knowing this hybrid system is a big seller but making games for the PS5 and the next Xbox will make it very difficult to port to a system that is half the power of the PS4/XBOX 1.
@RETRO_J For now I agree, but for games in 2020 and beyond there is no doubt triple A developers will be hard pressed to port games to this system that they have spent a ton of money on for the PS5 and the next Xbox (both of which will be here by 2019/20). As a handheld it will still be a fantastic device, as a home console not so much by that time.
I suppose it is possible as long as support continues. Despite being unable to stand up graphically with other platformers, if the market is there then developers will forego any desire for the latest shiny bells and wishes to craft experiences possible on the Switch.
Redesigns are of course inevitable not only to entice people to upgrade but to introduce new features but also to reduce manufacturing costs. However I don’t see Nintendo risking splitting its market. Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if we see titles exclusive to a Switch Neo / Pro / Plus they will remain few and niche. Especially due to the higher cost of upgrading.
Assuming there will be hardware revisions and upgrades along the way, there's no reason this shouldn't happen. They need an ecosystem rather than starting again every 5 years with 2 new systems.
They will need to get much more generous with pricing of their older games and digital game sharing for it to really work though.
Well if they did like the 3ds and release improved versions I don’t see why this couldn’t be the case.
I can definitely see it lasting for a long time.
I'm hoping for six years minimum.
@subpopz Yes, that's exactly what will happen.
In 5 years, Apple Watch will have a faster processor than Switch.
"Mobile phones will be better than Switch in a few years"
But will they have Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Metroid Prime 4, or Smash? No. Which is why you'll keep supporting this platform because all that matters is the games. That's why Xbox One X is selling faster than the Switch worldwide right? Because all anyone cares about is graphics. 😒
Hehehe they wish!
@Alikan JuStIn BiEbEr iSs SeLLinG FaStEr So HiS MuSiC is ThE BeStTT1!!!
I own a PS4 and a Switch and the Switch library is trash. The Xbox One has way better game library at the moment.
Considering it will be 1.5 generations behind tech-wise at that point, I expect a marketing shift from “home console you can take on the go” to “portable that can play home console games”, multiple iterations a la 3DS, and last gen ports (like Nintendo’s doing with the WiiU catalogue) for this to happen. It won’t be cutting it as a home console first in its current state once ps5/new Xbox roll out -unless users are interested exclusively in Nintendo games-
If that means we'll get another Zelda on the same machine, that'd be pretty sweet.
I'm sure we will see hardware iterations so seems plausible. We already have 2 and I will get a third once the inevitable "switch pro/+" comes out. If they just release updated versions of the same concept I would be happy. Would hate for them to go back to a more traditional console.
I’d like this to happen, but hopefully larger MicroSD cards will be available at a reasonable price. I’m already worried about storage and we’re not even a year in.
Not surprised. If it sells, why discontinue it?
@IronMan28 Nintendo can come out and say “Let the 3DS die, Switch is our portable system now” and articles/comments will still be about how it “outsold the WiiU!!!”... I don’t see NL accepting it unless a portable-only ver. is released.
@RickD
Nintendo unnecessarily killing the Wii at E3 2011 is something i've been complaining about for a long time.
When you compare how NCL and NoA handled the Switch during it's final 2 years (but also earlier), the reason for this failure becomes pretty clear: Reggie and NoA simply did not understand what Iwata and NoA wanted to acheive with the Wii.
Iwata wanted to expand the gaming market to new audiences permanently, while Reggie thought that he was selling a fad to casuals.
That's why NCL put some serious effort into the Wii having a good final year in Japan, successfully launching one big game per month, while NoA basically thought "Ok, the fad is over, let's move on to the next big thing".
NoE was kind of in a tough spot, they put it upon themselves to publish the Wii titles NoA ignored (Another Code R as an important "bridge" game to get casual female audiences into something more serious, Disaster as a "bridge" game that shows that motion controls and a focus on saving people over killing people can work for an action game, and the late releases Fatal Frame 2 Remake, Xenoblade, Pandora's Tower and The Last Story), but NoA refusing to publish these games lowered the hype for them as E3 is still the most important gaming event for the entire western world.
What made seeing NoA killing the Wii at E3 2011 particularly frustrating was that the Wii was doing so well in late 2010, with multiple million sellers both from first and third party studios (DKCR, Goldeneye, Epic Mickey, CoD...).
The monentum was there, but NoA killed it.
@noobish_hat as long as the 3ds lives, taht won't happen. as soon as it dies "hey look! it's a handheld! and here's our more powerful model of it!"
@Moroboshi876 That is like two games. Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Warriors
@bratzdoll True, even though Nintendo has announced Pokemon for Switch, NL made the assertion that we still need 3DS. It's just irritating for them not to acknowledge Switch is replacing Wii U AND 3DS.
See, 5-6 years is supposed to be a Video Game Console's Life Span as stated in this News Feed, the Wii U went discontinued at the wrong time, Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash should not exist because every Gaming System with a Mario Tennis game is supposed to have a Mario Golf game as well and vice versa. None of this would've ever happened with the Life Changing Wii U if the Switch released at the same time as every other gaming system twards Christmas, that's one of the points about the Switch I've kept asking People who've spoken with Game Developers in the past to ask about it. That's their job collecting information about Games and Gaming Platforms, which leads to something that can get posted onto the internet called TRIVIA.
It could, but I'd rather it didn't.
@IronMan28 Yeah, I want that Metroid game on the Switch soon.
@ZeldaToThePast I love Metroid and Prime 4 is one of my more anticipated games, so I agree with you.
I’d upgrade to a more powerful switch in a heartbeat.
This is just hope from Miyamoto, truth is, they’ll need to release a new console in about 5 years to keep competing as always. Hopefully the design ideas behind the Switch will be mostly kept and improved and I hope that Nintendo manages to get Nvidia to make some custom chip for their next console instead of something already out there.
If they have an add on to make it more powerful, then absolutely. I could care less if I'm playing 720 handheld, if I can play 1080/4K because of a more powerful Dock 2.0.
I think in a lot of ways that speaks to the possibility of a "Nintendo Switch X", a 2.0 model that is mostly backward compatible for scalable game engines with the Switch the same way X1X is compatible with X1S, while really performing in a whole different class.
Nintendo sort of tried that with N3DS already, but got cold feet on the idea, probably in advance of Switch, and didn't really use it the way they proposed (and the way MH4 utilized it.)
@EmirParkreiner One other issue NoA was dealing with at the time was the strong X360 arriving and really dominating the market in the US, while it wasn't as important a player elsewhere, coupled with the push in the US to HDTV having been fully completed by then (due to some pretty ugly governmental collusion to force the transation) which both Nintendo and Microsoft were unaware was going to happen at the Wii/X360 launch (but Sony was well aware of for PS3 launch, as an, at the time, dominant TV and content producer). By 2011, XBox had long since released an updated XBox that handled HDMI output, and PS3 was HDMI out of the gates, so the Wii looked particularly anemic in the US market, now fully HD converted for years, with arguably the last relevant analog video device on the market. No doubt NoA was anxious to just stop it and move onto WiiU ASAP.
Sure, the current Switch can easily go on for 7 years or more, but a new version of the Switch needs to be released in about 4-5 years from now. The Switch is an excellent showcase for the argument that graphics are not the most important thing for playing good games. Graphics should not be neglected however, and CPU power shouldn't either. CPU power determines the sophistication of the "AI" and behavior of NPC's, the number of interactive objects in the game world and the behavior of the game in general. The Switch needs to be updated in order to keep games feeling fresh, even if the graphics are less impressive than that of other consoles and the PC.
The latest iterations of the Nvidia Tegra series, the P1 (based on Pascal) and the Xavier (based on Volta) look really suitable to be used in a future version of the Switch. These chips are a lot more powerful and power efficient than the Tegra X1 that is used in the Switch right now. These chips are already available right now so they'll be a lot cheaper in a couple of years from now. Their architecture will also ensure backwards compatibility.
Sony and Microsoft both have two versions of their consoles. Their latest and greatest console and a cheaper, less powerful version, based on older hardware. Nintendo could do the same by launching a €300/350 Switch successor in 5 years from now but continue selling the first Switch for a couple of years longer at a much lower price point.
I can completely see the Switch lasting more than the usual "console cycle", but not in its current iteration. I fully expect there to be a Switch XL, Pro, Mini, etc. in time. Probably not until at least next year though.
They can still support it for 10 years if they want but a new successor should arrive in 6 or 7 years after otherwise the audience would get tired of the same old stuff for example the NES was officially launch in 1985 and continues until 1995 here in NA, had the Super NES not launch in 1991 their audience would had just move away from the NES and bought themselves a Sega Genesis cause Nintendo's lack of successor. Thanks to the Super NES launching while the NES is still slowly supported, Nintendo could at least kept their audience interest if they choose not to stick with the NES longer, it's the same situation with the 3DS and Switch right now. There are still some of its audience holding onto their 3DS, maybe it's for games like Dragon Quest XI or another Pokemon remake but they are welcome to jump to Switch any time if they are interest in the platform.
I'd love to see the Switch's life extended beyond the traditional 5-6 year mark. It'll all depend on whether 3rd parties get off their preconceived notions that Nintendo hardware can't run their games and instead figure out how to genuinely port over the experience without cutting any corners or features. Sure some of the graphics might need to take a hit, but done right, you'd never notice or at least wouldn't care.
I can see the Switch lasting as long as the 3DS, if not longer.
That sounds good in theory. What happens to third party support when Sony drops the PS5? They will be developing for a system that will be way more powerful than the Switch. Depending on the Switch install base by then they may develop separately for it, but no guarantees. Nintendo has great first party titles, but they will also need third party support to stay relevant.
Will we get Dragon Quest XI by then?
@TommyTLG Well, in this particular case. But could be more. And they're not the best examples of 3DS library, but remember the SNES Virtual Console games.
My point is the moment they launch a more powerful Switch with exclusive games, and they might -that would explain a cycle of more than 6 years, considering it started its life with less muscle than the competition-, early adopters could be upset.
Only if there are upgrade SKU's based on Pascal and eventually Volta. Maxwell certainly isn't going to last another 5 years, with another big jump in performance requirements on the way in about 2-3 years time... Actually next year for PC, but the leap elsewhere will be another year or two to take effect.
Even just today, the $170 Ryzen 5 2400G CPU released with built-in Vega 11 iGPU that completely trounces the Tegra X1 in raw performance. Meanwhile, the $100 Ryzen 3 2200G released with built-in Vega 8 iGPU that has slightly better graphical performance than a Tegra X1, and better compute too. So NVIDIA will be forced to respond to AMD and make their mobile parts more affordable if they want to compete. Even Intel is using AMD's Vega iGPU's now in some of their upcoming CPU's- they both want to break NVIDIA's near monopoly on the GPU market.
Switch is looking healthy in the software department for now, but Nintendo must plan ahead for this if they don't want another GameCube situation on their hands, where support suddenly drops off a cliff after 4 years.
What, are they joking? The Switch will already be heavily outdated in 5-6 years - more so than any home console would've been - so even that 'normal' cycle is unrealistic.
I don't think the Switch in its current form can last for more than 2-3 years.
I see there is the usual over optimism from Nintendo around 1 year into the product life. I bet they said the same of the Wii.
I really hope they iterate the hardware every couple of years, then it can continue indefinitely.
Because, really... Where can they go from here? Surely this is the final evolution of Nintendo gaming.
And if Sony announce a portable PS3 / PS4 at E3 ... We'll see how long the switch lasts.
@EmirParkreiner
Interesting read that, thanks. Nintendo generally made a total mess of the transition from DS/Wii to 3DS/Wii U. They must have known their next system after the Wii would be HD but seemingly did nothing to prepare for HD development. They then arrogantly assumed 3DS would sell no matter what and priced it way too high. The subsequent rescue job 3DS needed took even more resource away from Wii U.
Wii U was doomed for the start, it was simply a bad idea. But Nintendo were a complete mess around 2011/12, they got sloppy and arrogant, and it's only in the last year they've really started to recover.
Well, the competition lasts much longer then that (They did not stop making PS3s or 360s till just a couple of years ago, plus they both still see some support though free monthly games, XBONE's weekly Backwards compatibility updates, and their online and weekly sales are still up.
i would hope so plus i know it will as long as they keep getting all the indie games. I love my steam library but if i can play almost all of them on the go, then the switch is golden !!
@BigKing Perhaps you should've waited to see if Switch had any games you liked before you purchased it.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE I’m pretty sure we will see upgrades to the Switch like they did with the 3DS.
The modular design of the Switch is perfect for incremental updates.
Without some kind of hardware refresh it won't, I love my Switch but I can't deny that it has already showed some of it's hardware limitations. These have manifested mainly in multiplatform titles but these could keep the 3rd parties away. Nintendo will definitely pick up the slack better then in the past as it's now the only platform for them, they have had some big hitters already and hopefully can keep that momentum.
This year is arguably more important for the future of the console after such a great start and Nintendo having used it's Mario and Zelda trump cards. If it can keep that momentum then the 5 years plus is on the cards, especially if the X2 comes out to play
It will keep selling mostly because people will have to replace theirs after a few years because of the battery not charging anymore. This thing has the worst battery life of anything I've ever seen and you can only charge it a limited number of times before the battery won't hold a charge at all. 🤷🏼♀️ Poor design on that. The iPad holds a charge for at least 10 hours of heavy use. You're lucky to get 5 hours on the switch.
@Kiyata
You must never have had a Game Gear 😋
I won't complain. I don't really care about graphics and the 4K craze that exists now.
Having the Wii U abandoned so quickly and having to spend on a new console did hurt a bit. I hate short cycles, and the way they tend to make you spend hundreds of dollar every couple of years. I upgraded my phone a couple of year ago and I'm no rush to get a new one.
@Fandabidozi I did and I played it a LOT in the early 90s but I always played it plugged in because the battery in that was dreadful too. The game gear is actually the only game system I ever sold too. 😊
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