News Article

Talking Point: Nintendo's Ambitious Sales Targets Require Runaway Holiday Success

Posted by Thomas Whitehead

As the latest financial reports show, the time is now

Every three months we gain an insight into Nintendo's fortunes, with details on finances and sales information for different regions around the world. When it comes to solid numbers for hardware and software sales, the quarterly financial results reported by the Kyoto-based company can tell us much about its fortunes and, also, its level of confidence for the future.

Today brought us the Q2 financial results, which also incorporate the numbers from Q1 — in other words, we have statistics and numbers for the last six months of Nintendo's performance, from 1st April to 30th September. For statistic fans it allows comparisons with Q1, of course, while helping us to understand how kind — or unkind — the Summer and early Fall months were for Nintendo. As gamers with an interest in Nintendo's fortunes, naturally we'll do our own bit of analysis to pick apart the latest results.

To recap the baseline results, in general Q2 saw some of the strong Q1 figures deteriorate; some of the good work from that period has been lost. The operating loss for the financial year has grown substantially from 4.9 billion Yen (around $50 million / £33 million) as of 30th June, to 23 billion Yen (roughly $247 million / £148 million) on 30th September — that ultimately means that Nintendo's core business activities have brought an increased loss in the past three months. Despite those losses the company — or to be more precise its clever accountants — have found ways to generate a net profit, so Nintendo is still making money. This net profit also suffered a hit, however, dropping from 8.6 billion yen ($87.8 million / £57.7 million) after Q1 to relatively meagre 600 million Yen (just over $6 million / £3.8 million). At the broad end of the company's overall position, net assets and "cash and deposits" have both fallen, though net assets have jumped — with the level of figures we're dealing with (currently over $4715 million in cash assets) Nintendo is unlikely to lose sleep over those fluctuations.

More importantly, hardware and software sales were reasonable but, still, leave plenty of work to be done. The Summer months in particular can be a tough period, yet some poor figures for Wii U hardware sales have failed to shake Nintendo from cutting its end of year projections. Those are hefty targets, and while we'll get to 3DS and Wii U projections below, the headline number is a target operating profit of 100 billion Yen (over $1000 million); the standing after six months of 23 billion Yen (roughly $247 million) in the red leaves a required swing, at this point, of around 123 billion Yen. Yet after a recent history of slashing projections quarter by quarter, Nintendo won't budge this year — here's what the latest financial report says in terms of key selling points on the way.

For “Nintendo 3DS,” “Pokémon X/Pokémon Y,” released globally in October, showed extremely strong initial sales, further propelling the popularity of the system. In the overseas markets, Nintendo launched “Nintendo 2DS” which, by offering an all-new design without the 3D effect, is offered at a lower price point, and we strive to further accelerate sales and expand our audience in the coming year-end sales season.

For “Wii U,” we attempt to concentrate on proactively releasing key first-party titles towards the coming year in order to regain momentum for the platform. For the coming year-end sales season, we will release key first-party titles such as "Wii Party U” and “Super Mario 3D World,” and offer the Wii U hardware at an affordable price by bundling software with the system. We will also try new promotional activities such as a campaign where users can experience “Wii Fit U” free of charge.

Moreover, we strive to increase the profitability of our business by accelerating digital distribution of packaged software for both “Nintendo 3DS” and “Wii U” that we started last year and improving hardware profitability by reducing its costs.

Admittedly Nintendo has gone through the quietest six months of the year, and so much of the gaming industry revolves around the Winter and Holiday season — the packed software and hardware lineup testifies to that. Yet considering that Nintendo is standing by its projections, let's look at how many sales each quarter has brought for the 3DS and Wii U, and how far they still have to go to hit those targets.


Wii U Yearly Sales Projections / (Q1 & Q2 Results)

Hardware:

Q1 = 160,000 units
Q2 = 300,000 units
Q1 + Q2 = 460,000 units
9 million units (financial year target) - 460,000 = 8.54 million in remaining two quarters

Software:

Q1 = 1.03 million units
Q2 = 5.27 million units
Q1 + Q2 = 6.3 million units
38 million units (financial year target) - 6.3 million = 31.7 million in remaining two quarters

3DS Yearly Sales Projections / (Q1 & Q2 Results)

Hardware

Q1 = 1.4 million units
Q2 = 2.49 million units
Q1 + Q2 = 3.89 million units
18 million units (financial year target) - 3.89 million = 14.11 million units in remaining two quarters

Software

Q1 = 11.01 million units
Q2 = 16.39 million units
Q1 + Q2 = 27.38 million units
80 million units (financial year target) - 27.38 million = 52.62 million units in remaining two quarters


As the figures show, there's a lot of faith being shown in the Holiday and New Year periods — most prominently the former — bringing substantial increases in sales. The Wii U has less to do in simple numbers, but arguably faces a far greater challenge as it seeks to reverse poor momentum, a low install base and, at the same time, tackle the threat of established systems as well as the new PS4 and Xbox One. Battles over retail and advertising spaces are sure to be intense.

For the 3DS, the daunting numbers will largely be taken on by the launch of the 2DS, the phenomenally successful Pokémon X & Y and the upcoming The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds; none of these were released in time for the most recent results. Both X and Y sold over four million copies worldwide in just two days, and when you consider the hoped-for pick-up of new adopters to the 3DS family of systems over the Holidays, it's clear why Nintendo has some confidence.

With the Wii U, the financial report (as quoted above) specifically mentions Wii Party U and Super Mario 3D World as major software drivers, with promotions and bundles also in place to drive further interest; we've also argued before that reminding us of the Wii glory days with Wii Fit and Wii Sports in new iterations is clever. These are both products either exclusive to or being heavily promoted on the Wii U eShop, emphasizing Nintendo's stated goal that it wants to boost profit margins through improving its download platforms, while even in the physical retail arena the Nintendo UK store seeks to maximise profit by skipping third-parties entirely. Incidentally, as reported in our initial Q2 summary earlier today, it's in Europe and PAL regions that the most improvement in Wii U sales is required, evidently failing to pass 10,000 sales of the new system in six months.

When it comes to the year end target, we can't help but speculate that the release date of Mario Kart 8 will be pivotal. The Wii equivalent was an astonishing success and the franchise has a lot of sales power with a wide audience, and the rumoured April release would see the title miss this financial year. While Mario's latest adventure — along with the other major releases and bundle promotions — have decent odds of performing well, getting the karting adventure off the grid in late February / early March could give Nintendo a vital push towards its targets.

So how much could the Holiday season contribute? Below are the Q3 2012/2013 3DS results, a period in which the 3DS XL gained steam but the main software releases had either been on the market for a longer period or, frankly, didn't have the clout of a Pokémon / Zelda double act — New Super Mario Bros. 2 was high profile at that time.


3DS Hardware Sales (Q3 2012 / 2013) — 7.65 million units
3DS Software Sales (Q3 2012 / 2013) — 20.53 million units


Though such comparisons are tenuous with differing lineups, market conditions and a larger existing userbase to consider, what these numbers show is that significant units can be shifted in the Holiday season, merely emphasizing why Nintendo and its rivals put so much focus into the period. The full impact of X & Y, the 2DS, various 3DS models and promotions and A Link Between Worlds could, given the positive vibes and momentum of the platform, bring even bigger numbers and propel Nintendo towards its ambitious targets.

We're not sure such a comparison with last year on Wii U makes sense at any level, as that was the launch of the system. System launches often prompt impressive headlines and sell-outs in early days, and Nintendo certainly made positive noises about the Wii U's opening month. Such is the fluidity of the market and level of competition, the Wii U is frankly an unknown. Today's Q2 results were particularly lacking in key information, as beyond the struggles of Pikmin 3 to boost momentum almost on its own, the modest results were little surprise. With so much hope in the Holiday season, we merely have our own opinions and Nintendo's optimistic projections as guidance. In late January, with the Q3 results, we'll have a much stronger idea of where the Wii U stands.

Overall, Q2 wasn't great for Nintendo. Aside from nitpicking over assets totals, the picture generally got worse, though Nintendo's commitment to its original yearly projections suggest that it was expected. Let's bear in mind that in the last financial year Nintendo chopped its estimates in every quarter — there's clearly precedent to do so — yet has resisted doing so this time.

The numbers suggest an uphill struggle, of course, though not quite an impossible one. The 3DS looks like a strong bet to produce substantial sales; as for the Wii U, its fate in the near future is far from clear.

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User Comments (130)

GreatPlayer

#2

GreatPlayer said:

Given that Sonic Lost World will probably not a system seller, NIntendo's best bet before the end of the year will only be Mario 3D World. Not sure if Zelda is a system seller but I don't think Wii U Party or Mario Party will be the system seller. I also doubt Wii Fit U will be - for people who did not do their exercise after purchasing Wii Fit Plus, they will not pay $300 to buy the system because of Wii Fit U.

I have not played Pikmin before. When I first saw the box art of Pikmin, I thought it was a kid's game.

Samurai_Goroh

#4

Samurai_Goroh said:

I believe Nintendo will have a good holiday season for Wii U this year, but 9 million consoles sold from April, 2013 to the end of March, 2014 is just an outlandish prediction. Not gonna happen. Not even Iwata must believe that, they should rectify that now so that they don't look bad next year. Right, now they're sitting at 4 million consoles of total userbase. If the Wii U userbase grows to 7 million by the end of this calendar year, I'd call that a success.

GreatPlayer

#5

GreatPlayer said:

If I were Nintendo, I would create free demo copies to be played on iphone and android, so as to entice people to buy the real Wii U copy of the game. Rayman Jungle Run was what made me buy the PC version of Rayman Origin, and I was not disappointed.

SCAR392

#6

SCAR392 said:

The only way this would happen is if everyone bought a Wii U, whether they plan on buying another console or not.

Never the less, Nintendo's performance will always be based on how Microsoft and Sony perform, too.

Peek-a-boo

#8

Peek-a-boo said:

To keep it simple:

The 2DS/3DS will do very well, especially in (the recent) light of Pokemon X & Y.

The Wii U shall do 'just okay' and perhaps, come Christmas time, past the one million units sold - worldwide - in 2013, which is pretty poor, all told.

The 3D Mario games never, EVER do better than the 2D ones therefore I personally don't think Super Mario 3D World will be the 'saviour' most folks on here proclaim (or hope) it to be.

NbaJunkie

#9

NbaJunkie said:

These low install numbers make me sad. If this keeps up consumers will never get second gamepad support. Or all the cool rumored system colors..

DarkKirby

#10

DarkKirby said:

With the PS4 and Xbone coming out, and no games coming out for the Wii U other than Super Mario 3D World for the next few months, and no release dates for the supposed games people want for the Wii U, I'm pretty sure the Wii U is screwed this holiday season.

ninjalink

#11

ninjalink said:

To make that goal they must release smash bros u and mario kart 8 at the beginning of march.

Falchion

#12

Falchion said:

Nintendo really needed smash bros or mario kart before the hollidays, without it i dont think they stand a chance this season... But idk what they could do...

Worthy

#13

Worthy said:

Yeah good luck with that Nintendo, it took the 3DS atleast 2 years before it took off.

rjejr

#14

rjejr said:

Nintendo really should start marketing next years games if they can. We've known about MK8 and SSB since E3, shouldn't they have dates by now? I think more people would buy a Wii U over the holidays if they knew MK8 was coming out in Feb. or March then would actually wait until Feb. or March to buy a Wii U. And wheres Yoshi? Or X? Or Bayonetta 2? Something besides DK must be ready to come out in the winter that would coax people into getting a Wii U over the holiday even if the game isn't out yet. Or even the spring for SSB.

When playing it close to the vest isn't working Nintendo, try something new.

AirElephant

#15

AirElephant said:

Won't come anywhere close. Mario will be fun, absolutely, but unless it's revolutionary on the scale that SM64 was, it won't draw those numbers. Nintendo is also faced with the XB1 and PS4, vastly more powerful consoles made by companies that will be pouring a great deal of advertising into the Christmas sales season. I think Nintendo will be lucky to make half of its target.

What sucks is that Nintendo had more than a year's head start for nothing. They squandered twelve months without releasing ANY "must have" titles other than a HD retread of a Gamecube classic. Next year will be good, I'm sure, and SSB will lead to some sales, but I really doubt we'll be talking about Nintendo's turnaround even a year from now.

I have a Wii-U, but I'm actually hoping Nintendo kicks the system to the curb. The problem is that I don't know what they'd replace it with. I don't see the XB1 or the PS4 being all that exciting. The games look somewhat better, but they FEEL like prettier 360 and PS3 games. (And that's really what this first generation is.) I don't think any of the these companies really know what the next generation is supposed to look like.

AirElephant

#16

AirElephant said:

@NbaJunkie
The thing is, Nintendo barely knows what to do with ONE GamePad, let alone two. I have been a fan of Nintendo for years, but I'm fist-clenchingly angry with Nintendo for the abysmal launch and support of the Wii-U. The system feels like an experiment, where their engineers rushed to make something that could head off the assault of iPads and similar tablets before they had any ideas for games that could actually make use of such a connection.

In the interim, they've lost virtually all significant 3rd party support and they didn't even have a decent queue of 1st and 2nd party titles ready to go. They are literally years behind the curve on development at this point, and flailing around for a strategy. And, as always, their Virtual Console and online support are terrible. There's no excuse for the lack of a unified online store or even decent player-to-player game play support. Sony and Microsoft have been doing it for years with great success and few of the problems Nintendo seems to think it's protecting its users from.

It's absolutely mind-boggling how inept Iwata and his engineers at NCL are. Iwata SERIOUSLY needs to go before he bows and apologizes yet again.

WingedSnagret

#18

WingedSnagret said:

I hate to say it, but it looks like not even Mario himself can save the Wii U this upcoming holiday season.

Maybe if Mario Kart 8 was released before the year's end similar to the one-two punch the 3DS got in its darkest hour the odds would be in the struggling system's favor, but as things stand right now the outcome looks pretty bleak.

jrob23

#19

jrob23 said:

it's 9 million TOTAL Wii U sold NOT 9 million this fiscal year. So they are hoping to sell 5 million by end of Q4 on top of the 3.91 million they already sold. So, while still daunting...not impossible considering the holidays are coming.

WebHead

#20

WebHead said:

@jrob23 yeah I think Nintendo meant for the total install base as a whole to reach 9 million, not sell another 9 million.

NbaJunkie

#21

NbaJunkie said:

@airelephant, everything you said is true. They didn't anticipate the difficulty in developing in he. They still have not figured out how to implement online.But they had no choice to release the wiiu when they did.They needed all the help they can get in the console wars.Like many Nintendo ideas they are innovative as hell, but every peripheral falls into a niche market. They move on from ideas far too soon .they really need more developers working on hard hitting first party titles.they are way behind with no end in sight.

Emblem

#23

Emblem said:

Its actually 9 Million total not an additional 9 Million. Interestingly analysts predict Xbox1 and PS4 to sell 10 Million by the end of their first fiscal year.

AirElephant

#25

AirElephant said:

So they are hoping to sell in five months (FY'13 ends in March) 150% more systems than they sold in the previous twelve. Ambitious. I really don't think that the new Mario game will do that much, and nothing else short of Zelda or Smash Bros. will do the job. I think Nintendo will be lucky to get to six million, total, by the end of the fiscal year, especially now that the real competition will have arrived.

scrubbyscum999

#26

scrubbyscum999 said:

The new Mario game looks good, but it's no Galaxy. They can't meet these goals, there is nothing that would spur a bunch of random people to get a Wii U. They also have competition now and the fans of those systems.

darthmawl

#27

darthmawl said:

Ps4 and xbox one will suffer just like the wii u . its not nintendos fault its people in general. Us hardcore gamers buy consoles at launch. We are crazy . the truth is not every gamer are retarted like us. Alot of people will stick with past gen consoles until major price drop like ps3 and xbox 360
did a couple of years ago. WE HUMAINS ARE POOR!

rjejr

#28

rjejr said:

@Trainer_DJ @Peek-a-boo - Difference between SM3DW and the Galaxy games - multiplayer. Wii U is a good, sort of affordable, Christmas gift for a family with kids w/ SM3DW as fun for the whole family. {And Mario/Luigi in the Wii U bundle.) Galaxy and Sunshine aren't those games. There's a reason that SM3DW has been shown so much as a multiplayer game, much to the chagrin of many, myself included, who wanted a single player game. I'm over my dislike though, I think a lot of other people are also, this game will sell to both single player fans and multiplayer fans. It will only sell Wii Us though if Nintendo ever gets around to marketing it. If I don't start seeing some commercials during Sat. morning cartons and Dreamworks Dragons I'm going to scream.

AJ_Lethal

#29

AJ_Lethal said:

Those forecasts are aiming a bit too high, IMO.

I bet Nintendo will have around 5-7 million Wii Us sold in total by this year's end.

Steveovig

#30

Steveovig said:

How will the PS4 and Xbox suffer? The reason why the U is doing terrible is because it's using old tech and had no games until recently. It's got terrible third party support and up until August had terrible 1st party support. The next-gen consoles won't have the same problems at all.

darthmawl

#31

darthmawl said:

@Steveovig power doesnt sell a console. Games does and the launch lineup for ps4 and xbox are not that great neither wii u was.

Hardcore.gamers will buy it at launch just like we bought the wii u at launch

WebHead

#32

WebHead said:

I know a lot of people don't like EA, but they're a major third party. Nintendo needs EA. Nintendo needs to get EA to cooperate on some level, at least enough to get Madden and Fifa again.

Steveovig

#33

Steveovig said:

I disagree on the lineups darthmawl. The lineups aren't stuff I personally like but they appeal to the West way more than Nintendo's lineup and future lineup. Games like Titanfall and Killzone, and Destiny are what sells nowadays not W101 or Pikmin (certainly not knocking those games though).

marnelljm

#34

marnelljm said:

The Wii U numbers are never going to happen. I can see them getting close to the 3DS hardware numbers but that's A LOT of software to sell for it.

Gerbwmu

#35

Gerbwmu said:

For the sake of argument, lets assume 1.5 million Wii U's fly off the shelf for the holiday season. MK or SSB is available in February and they sell another 750K and the other is released in April but has a late march DL eshop release and they squeeze another 750K. That leaves another 2 million to make up somewhere. I think the goal is too high, unless something else is coming that we don't know about. But they can't change the target....anyone in business understands this. And if they miss....it is not the "End" of Nintendo or the Wii U. It does mean that they need to get a steady flow of games and if 2nd party titles will help then they need to start investing in that now.

darthmawl

#37

darthmawl said:

My guess is nintendo will release an epic first person shooter game and all of cod bf fans will buy the wii u to play it :-) !!!! Mmmm i can dream right?

Gerbwmu

#38

Gerbwmu said:

@Steveovig I think suffer is the wrong word. Historically most consoles struggle in first year and usually hit a stride for 2nd holiday and into the 3rd year of existence. PS4 and XB1 will both "Struggle" to get to 5 million sold by this time next year. But that's not struggling, that's reality. Wii U is about 20% behind where it should be right now....and 3rd party support is limited but where it ends up is still 2 years off to make any real judgement.

Sceptic

#40

Sceptic said:

Good luck with the 2000% holiday sales jump Nintendo. Oh man.

"Suffer" would be 2 Million units. 460k is pretty much "dead".

Iwata is clearly insane.

Steveovig

#41

Steveovig said:

Well, I disagree. I think Nintendo is so far behind the times on what gamers want that they are in way too deep. Think about it, if you want a current gen console and you're choosing between the Wii-U and the PS3, you'd be stupid not to choose the PS3. Sure, the U would have the exclusive 1st party stuff but it totally lacks 3rd party support and features of the PS3. It's like selling an inferior product right next to a superior product with a better library. The PS4 and Xbox probably won't sell like gangbusters but this holiday will easily be better for them than the Wii-U was last year. It'll be hard to get a PS4 this year I bet. However, I remember being able to find a U quite easily last year without a reservation.

VoiceOfReason

#42

VoiceOfReason said:

@WebHead
Nintendo needs... To buy EA.
Especially now that they make Battlefront, NFS, and all them sports games.
That would sure be funny...

Gerbwmu

#44

Gerbwmu said:

@Steveovig - why buy a XBox1 or PS4 when every game is available on PS3 or 360? There is no real reason to buy either. Presales currently sit at 1 million each. There is no incentive to buy either unless you are really into gaming. Don't get me wrong. I assume Nintendo will come in 3rd in sales this generation. Probably 35-45 million units. And the lack of 3rd party support.....especially sports....is a horrible blow, but it is what it is. Nintendo hasn't had good support since SNES. What they do better then any other company is find a way to supplement their titles with 2nd and 3rd party exclusives which make it the 2nd console to have as opposed to having a XB1 & PS4 under the tv.

thesilverbrick

#48

thesilverbrick said:

It's kind of arrogant of Nintendo not to adjust its sales forecast, if you ask me. There's no way they'll more than triple the Wii U's install base this holiday.

Steveovig

#49

Steveovig said:

35 million units is an awful lot. It would take 8 years to reach close to that at this pace. Don't think I'm not a Nintendo guy as I prefer their games over anything else. I'm just frustrated by this situation and the way Nintendo is run these days.

Gerbwmu

#50

Gerbwmu said:

@thesilverbrick - the report is a little misleading. Nintendo expects to have sold 9 million units total by April 1st. Still a bit farfetched as they would need to sell 5 million in 5 months. But realisticly they can not adjust the 9 million unit target. Much easier to apologize after missing then adjust it now. I've worked in finance for years and uave fought the adjusting target battle....it sucks but missing it by say 2 million units come April will be easier to explain then adjusting it down 2 million now. Does that make sense.....Nope but it is the way most do it.

banacheck

#51

banacheck said:

I've said it before and i'll say it again Nintendo are slowly but surely losing touch, and thay expect to sell 9 million units by April, nuts. Thay are also putting all there eggs in one basket, by excepting the Wii U to fly off the shelf this xmas.

Nintendboy14

#52

Nintendboy14 said:

Ive been a lifelong nintendo fan but enough is enough nindy needs to get their poopsiedoodoocacapoopiedoodoos together weak donkey launch losing 3rd party support refuses to a pokemon or zelda mmo game relaying on the same franchises to bail them out few core games seriously the wii u may be the last nintendo system i own
Please watch the profanity — TBD

MEGAMAN_D

#54

MEGAMAN_D said:

This is a company that made a handheld relevant in an age of smartphones. They still need to get their act together though, and fast.

Beetlejuice

#55

Beetlejuice said:

@darthmawl

Probably half or 1/3 or those who buy a PS4 this holiday season will also be picking up Killzone.

Actually, I bet the new Killzone game will have outsold The Wonderful 101 by a 4:1 margin when Xmas rolls around. More of a 'system seller' than anything Nintendo has released since the end of 2012.

Mahe

#56

Mahe said:

Ditch the Gamepad, reap the rewards. Wii U would sell more if there was a Gamepad-less SKU available. Unfortunately, it's too late for this holiday.

The 2DS will do well, though.

Krzysztof

#57

Krzysztof said:

If they release MK8 in early March 2014 I do believe that they'll hit 9 million target.

LDXD

#58

LDXD said:

I don't think its as far fetched as what people are making it out to be they have 4 million sold now I can see them selling around the 9 million mark by April pending on how it does this holiday season IMO I see it more around the 7 mark
Kinda funny how the 360 was around 7-8 million at that point ps3 a little higher but its Nintendo that is doomed and needs to give up lol whatever people

darthmawl

#59

darthmawl said:

@FutureAlphaMale how stupid to compare a major title like killzone to a new ip wich is from a 2nd party like w101 .... Congrats bro . now compare Killzone to Zelda will you ?

Krzysztof

#60

Krzysztof said:

@banacheck I know that this figure seems to be very optimistic, but Nintendo surprised me quite a lot of times in terms of sales so I wouldn't be shocked if they actually hit 8-9 million mark. Like I said previously, if SMB3D turn out to be a hit and if they release MK8 in late February / early March ... it could happen. Unless Nintendo got something big and they're not telling us about it.

Henmii

#61

Henmii said:

The Wii u now depends on Mario 3D world! I really hope it will succeed! Mario 3D world DOES look very cool and inspired (while new super mario bros u did not), almost Galaxy-esque! It's Mario 3D land getting serious! Mario 3D land was already great, but this will be much greater! Can't wait!

Krzysztof

#62

Krzysztof said:

That reminds me the situation with 3DS. If in 2011 somebody told me that this struggling handheld in two years time, will be outselling PS3 and XB360 all together, I'd be laughing my donkey off.
Please watch the profanity — TBD

Antisham

#64

Antisham said:

@GreatPlayer I don't think diluting their market share with smartphone ports of game demos is such a good idea. Positive reinforcement to games and hardware with clever pricing will keep Nintendo ahead.

Beetlejuice

#65

Beetlejuice said:

@Krzysztof

Why would it be unthinkable that a new and comparatively cheaper handheld system with no competition would be outselling two 7 year old consoles at the end of their life cycles?

unrandomsam

#66

unrandomsam said:

@darthmawl Comparing it to a remake is not a sensible thing to do either. NSMBU is probably the fairest to use (Due to how well the last one did on the Wii). Either way there is loads of console FPS games and they are all unacceptable technically. Sony makes everything bland as hell that they take over anyway. They are like a poison (Same as EA and Ubisoft).

darthmawl

#67

darthmawl said:

@FutureAlphaMale it is not a system seller. People will buy it cause its the only game.worth it. Soooo your telling me nintendo land was a system seller ? Lol
Please watch the insults — TBD

LDXD

#68

LDXD said:

@FutureAlphaMale because smart phones and tablets were supposed to kill the 3ds and that's why it was struggling remember? Not the complete lack of software same as the Wii u in its current state and good job of comparing killzone with wonderful 101 what would that say if killzone didn't outsell it? So I say no poopsiedoodoocacapoopiedoodoo Sherlock

plunkettmonster

#69

plunkettmonster said:

I am confidant that Nintendo will hit its 3DS goals with an impressive amount of steam left in the tank. And I am sure Nintendo will come close to hitting its Wii U numbers in the next six months. I am calling it here, take note Wii U will out sell the Xbox One in the next six months.

unrandomsam

#70

unrandomsam said:

All I see with the Xbox One / PS4 is what PC games run like when your computer is not powerful enough. (All they care about is graphics and when it is 30fps there is nothing you can do about it).

Beetlejuice

#72

Beetlejuice said:

@darthmawl

Nintendo Land came with the system, no one had to buy it separately.

If half the people who buy a PS4 pick up Killzone, how is it not a 'system seller'?? People are buying the system to play the game obviously.

unrandomsam

#73

unrandomsam said:

Wii U exclusives don't seem to have that problem. (Loads of 3DS stuff does though) and both suffer from being far too easy on the whole.

Zelda suffers from being far too short and easy if it was the first quarter then it would be fine. No storage problems any more as an excuse.

Senario

#75

Senario said:

@unrandomsam What this guy said, PC destroys anything out on PS or Xbox. Nintendo is the only worthwhile console if you have a PC due to exclusives.

Beetlejuice

#76

Beetlejuice said:

@LDXD

My point was that The W101 was supposed to be a system seller and has sold like 20,000 copies, while the other guy said Killzone wasn't a system seller because it only sold around 2.5-3 million copies.

I never bought the argument that iPads and iPhones were cutting into handheld gaming devices. They are both completely different products with different markets/functions.

LDXD

#78

LDXD said:

@FutureAlphaMale yeah as good as w101 is I never thought it to be a system seller but Nintendo does have a few in the the near future and just like the 3ds the Wii u should pick up the biggest problem with the Wii u is their is no reason to really go out and get one right now none Nintendo barely has any 1st party games on it the main reason why people buy their consoles to begin with. The fact that it has sold 4 million so far shocks me
I don't see why everyone is freaking out and I think its funny

torotoid64

#79

torotoid64 said:

I wanna get a Wii u but I would hate for it to sit around collecting dust till smash bros or MK8 come out , Same reason I waited out the 3DS, if I do get it it would just be for a remastered LOZ which IMO is a scary thing

Beetlejuice

#80

Beetlejuice said:

@LDXD

Even more shocking is that of the 4 million Wii-U's sold, 3 million of those came in the first 3-4 months of its release. In the past 9 months its barely sold a million. The hardcore fans (like myself) picked one up early, but no one else seems to be interested.

N64ever

#81

N64ever said:

@darthmawl Very true I waited to buy my Wii U till the price dropped. I like playing my old gen console games and don't need to buy the latest system right at launch. I'm one of those poor humans lol but if I had money I would so buy games at launch. Lol

LDXD

#83

LDXD said:

@FutureAlphaMale I have a feeling that's how this system will be I thought we would have another GameCube on our hands and it looks like we do. As for me it doesn't bother me at all considering I loved the cube and game on multiple consoles anyway
The reason it hasn't been selling is because it has no exclusive system sellers yet people need a reason to buy it and they don't

unrandomsam

#84

unrandomsam said:

@LDXD I would be happy with another Gamecube but I think it might be even worse. (Not sure just the Nintendo output will be enough for me for quite a long time).

(What I like for the Gamecube is probably about 1/4 Capcom 1/4 Sega 1/3 Nintendo and second party and a few other odd games).

jrob23

#85

jrob23 said:

@FutureAlphaMale nobody thought W101 would be a system seller. Nobody. It was just a good game desperately needed to strengthen the Wii U library. It has a niche crowd and is way too hard for casuals to move systems. So...

JimLad

#86

JimLad said:

On any other year I would say there is a chance for the Wii U...
But this year? With PS4 & Xbox One launching, and current gen systems still getting games like GTA V, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Fifa...
Not to mention Pokémon distracting all the kids...

No, I don't think it's going to happen.

chess227

#87

chess227 said:

I may be an optimist but I ignored the wii and the GameCube and spent last generation on an xbox. I am not getting an xbox one due to privacy concerns and not getting a ps4 because I have never liked their online system. I think nintendo has a lot of shortcomings but to me it is the system I will be buying. It pushed me over the edge when I saw the new Mario/luigi bundle coming and with my son turning 5 next year, I think it will be a great system to bring him up on. I was 5 when I played the original NES for the first time and want him to enjoy the same games I did. To me, I think the lackluster launch of the ps4 and xbox one will help nintendo tremendously. I know a lot of people who are waiting to buy the next gen systems and for parents looking to buy a system this Christmas, the wii u does look nice with the new bundled software. It's also nice that so many games already released are already so cheap. I have faith in them but they have made a LOT of mistakes. The best thing that happened to them was having so many next gen titles delayed. Hopefully that will pay off

Neram

#88

Neram said:

I think Mario Kart 8 is going to be the big system seller. It's just too bad it wasn't coming out during the holiday season when most people are actually looking to pick up hardware. I think if that game comes out as early as possible next year, then they will hit their target, but if not then I don't think they will. Super Mario 3D World looks amazing but it's a fact that 3D Mario games don't sell as well as 2D Mario, so seeing as New SMB U didn't sell well (as in the 20+ million copies that the Wii one did) that should theoretically mean 3D World won't sell more than about 2 or 3 million copies. I'm thinking most of the game's sales will go to those who already own a Wii U, or are Nintendo fans. I just don't think it will singlehandedly turn the Wii U's fortunes around and save the day, as much as I want it to. It will be Mario Kart 8 that saves the Wii U, here's to hoping the timing of that release doesn't affect hardware sales negatively.

unrandomsam

#89

unrandomsam said:

@Neram Dunno how anybody can still be interested in Mario Kart. (All Stars Racing Transformed at least has an AI that doesn't let you win).

unrandomsam

#91

unrandomsam said:

@hwrose379 Not sure that is totally fair though. There was a lot less choice when 3D Land came out. NSMB2 is still a chart game (And still pretty much full price used). The framerate spoils 3D Land for me though. (I hope it is just that anyway.) NSMB2 is just bad in every way nearly. (Framerate / levels / DLC).

jrob23

#92

jrob23 said:

@Neram NSMB sold so well because it was bundled with the console for like two years. When the NSMBU and NSLU bundles start hitting shelves that will sell consoles. Once Wii U Sports Club gets some advertisement and perhaps bundles, that will move units too

Ernest_The_Crab

#93

Ernest_The_Crab said:

@Samurai_Goroh Actually, changing your estimates generally results in even poorer results (usually followed by a rather prompt stock price drop). It shows the investors you have very little faith in your own estimates which is worse than being off from your estimates.

Investors generally have their own predictions of what the sales will be, and in this case they would have pretty low standards as is. So the major problem is showing less faith compared to not hitting targets.

A good example of this (though in a reverse showing), is in regards to Apple. They had pretty high sales estimates that in turn they hit but their share price still went down because investors "believed" they should have sold more.

EvisceratorX

#94

EvisceratorX said:

The 3DS will probably come pretty close to hitting its goals, but I wouldn't hold my breath for the Wii U. Due to exorbitantly poor marketing, Nintendo almost completely wasted that 1 year head start they had on the other 2 consoles. Had they waited until now to release it, they could've at least been starting on even footing with the others. Now, it's going to be an uphill battle to not only reverse the negative publicity, but start rallying positive hype.

skywake

#95

skywake said:

Well looking at the sales for the first two weeks of Q3 and doing a pessimistic guess for the two and a half that have followed. They've probably already matched Q2 1/3rd of the way into Q3. And the holiday crazy hasn't even started yet, so things are turning around.

Not sure if it's a 8.5mill units turning around but still....

RETROBLAST

#96

RETROBLAST said:

I love Nintendo but I still say they need some, no, not just one new, 1st party IPs in the form of FPSs .... they would be the only system that was good for an ENTIRE family ... if they could only do this, I would't be forced to buy a PS4 in a year or two to satisfy my FPS itch.

3D WORLD looks awesome ... but unless they have a HUGE hidden ace in the hole, crawling out of the hole they are in looks grim.

And I say this while also saying the Wii U is the best system Nintendo has ever released but you certainly wouldn't know it the way they are presenting it and treating it .... they need to make believers out of people ....Games, New IPs, Advertising, Online Gaming, Unified Accounts, and yes, did I mention, several 1st Part FPSs!

Garios

#97

Garios said:

The sales numbers are definitely troubling and I'm curious to see if they are due in large part to Nintendo's mistakes or if they are also indicative of general disinterest in upgrading hardware. I know us "core" gamers always try to keep up with the latest consoles and games, but I can definitely see why the average person would be more reluctant to drop down $400+ on a new console and games when they can simply purchase a much cheaper PS3/360 with an already immense library or even just try to catch up on all the games they missed this gen. The crazy amount of quality games that were being pumped out month after month for a good long while literally made it impossible for me to buy and play every game that I wanted. I'm sure that's the case for a lot people as well and the prices on those games will only go down, making them more appealing and really hurting the next-gen.

apil87

#98

apil87 said:

@unrandomsam You're joking, right? Just how that moderate attempt for a racing game can be compared to the complex, pro-style, refined Mario Kart? "how anybody can still be interested in Mario Kart" ??? In fact, it's player base is like a scientist-founders group, who explores the game thoroughly. And the main thing is that casual players also can have great fun with that game. It's one of the best things about Nintendo games.

Nomad

#99

Nomad said:

I think Nintendo has a challenge ahead of them if they want to meet those goals, unless there's something their not telling us. Am I remembering correctly Nintendo saying awhile back that they had more unannounced games in development for 2013 - 14 fiscal year?
If they have some ace up their sleeve like Miyamoto's new IP or some unannounced blockbuster game ready to go they might make it.
Chances are close it zero but I'm still hoping Capcom busts out a MegaMan game for Wii U before the years end.

Senario

#100

Senario said:

@RETROBLAST Just have to say this, why buy a PS4 when you can just buy a gaming pc and have all the fps you want with better controls. And don't give me the "it isnt playable on the big screen" stuff. You can easily hook up a pc to output video on a tv.

BlackStar9000

#101

BlackStar9000 said:

@Worthy that depends on your definintion of "took off" I believe that after Mario Kart 7 combined with Super Mario 3d Land that it officially began its flight, then a few months later it had RE Revelations and the Surprise hit Kid Icarus (seriously, the funnest handheld game I have EVER played, flaws aside) The Wii U needs this level of high end first party (occasional third party) sales on a monthly basis, which I think Nintendo is already gearing up for starting Nov with SMB3dW then Wii fit U, february DK TS, april Mario Kart 8, June/July I assume will be third party months (possibly X or bayonetta 2) with Super Smash bros 4 saved for the holidays of next year, not to mention random unannounced titles that Nintendo always likes to surprise us with, this time next year will be the true deciding factor for the Wii U.

gregrout

#102

gregrout said:

Nintendo is utterly out of gas for 2013 and pretty much banking on Mario World 3D to do the impossible. The "just takes one game" motto that's taken over Nintendo lately only adds to their disillusionment. Throw in their big push to get iOS and Android developers on-board just stinks of 3rd party developer abandonment and desperation. We have comparable consoles in Xbox 360 and PS3 selling for dirt cheap along with proven monster titles (Halo, Last of Us, etc...) and New block busters like (Grand Theft Auto V) and in the opposing corner we have Wii-U and Angry Birds for $59.99...

gregrout

#104

gregrout said:

I think the real behind the scenes issue here is Nintendo's insistence that all Wii-U games make use of the Gamepad's touchscreen. From a 3rd party developer standpoint that's a huge additional development cost for such a small audience. The way I see it, Nintendo can either back off entirely, pay developers to include touch screen play, get developer permission to add touchpad functionality at Nintendo's expense or they can try to go after touchscreen developers (Andriod/iOS). It seems like Nintendo is doing the later. The biggest losers here though are the Wii-U owners that see the Wii-U getting passed over by big production developers. Angry Bird's for $59.99 isn't going to fill that void.

JimLad

#105

JimLad said:

@Senario Not everyone wants a gaming PC. You need desk space to use 'better controls', and the PS4 by comparison is cheaper than buying a rig with similar specs. Not to mention you get virtually no local multiplay from PC games, and not everyone is fluent in Windows/Steam.

withoutdk

#106

withoutdk said:

a little bit optimistic... but i have done my part.. i have bought a lot of games and the wii u from day one...

jbjbkat

#107

jbjbkat said:

The WiiU is gonna end up like the GameCube--a system loved by Nintendo fans but largely ignored by the gaming public, and I'm okay with that. I make no apologies for being a Nintendo fanboy, they produce the games I want to play. Third party developers can, have, and will continue to find success on Nintendo platforms by making good games. The exclusive properties of Nintendo are almost unbeatable. Nintendo has been in the amusement business for 150 years, they're not going anywhere...EA, Ubisoft are after the $$$ and their games are boring & don't age well--they make a big splash and then move on to next years very similar sequel, they're killing the art of game making--these big publishers...

GreatPlayer

#108

GreatPlayer said:

@apil87 Are you kidding me? How can the uninnovative mario kart be compared with the exciting race such as sonic transformed? if nintendo continue to rehash its mario games then wii u is going to lose in this console battle. Evidence: just look at the console sales and gamers comments on nintendo games. habitually, mario games get good scores just because reviewers do not dare to give baf scores, as opposed to the Mario games are tha5 good.

Genesaur

#109

Genesaur said:

Attempt to concentrate on ADVERTISING! We know what games are coming out; get it in everyone else's heads what's coming. Push hard, and we might just crack half of that nine million (I think we all know the full amount is probably not happening).

LDXD

#110

LDXD said:

@GreatPlayer yeah I'm sure reviewers are scared to death of Mario. Mario is one of the least rehashed franchise in gaming history outside of the nsmb games. If you don't think so name me one game that isn't especially one that has been around as long as Mario has

JarredBuzzo

#111

JarredBuzzo said:

I don't see this happening, but Nintendo must have some kind of reason for believing sales will improve. Well, I hope they do, anyway.

LDXD

#113

LDXD said:

@GreatPlayer don't have a clue what you are talking about but name me another franchise that has racing, platforming, RPG action adventure sports ? Don't worry I'll wait

GreatPlayer

#114

GreatPlayer said:

@LDXD LOL... so after creating the first Mario kart game Nintendo can keep rehashing the same kart game; And after creating the mario game in 1980's they can keep rehashing the same, just with slightly different names - by the way, what is so NEW about NSMB?

Don't worry, I'll wait for your answer

GreatPlayer

#115

GreatPlayer said:

I think some people cannot understand that the games can still rehash each other within each line of franchise. Let me ask you a question:

Mario Kart 64:: Mario Kart DS is analogous to which of the following?
(A) Mario Golf: Mario Kart Wii
(B) NSMB : NSMB U
(C) NSMB : NSMB 2
(D) Mario Kart DS: Mario Kart Wii U
(E) Yoshi Cookie: Tetris Attack

LDXD

#116

LDXD said:

@GreatPlayer read my post again I said with the exception of nsmb games and you still didn't answer my question
BTW if you think that Nintendo rehashes their games to much what does that say about the rest of the gaming industry that is rehashing all their games this past generation and haven't even been around no where near as long as Mario
You mean to tell me batman, assassins Creed, uncharted, cod, killzone, madden, FIFA ect all aren't just rehashing the same thing over and over? I can honestly add a bunch more to that this but don't feel like it and none of those games been out anywhere near as long as Mario and if you think that it hasn't changed drastically since the 80s your completely crazy

GreatPlayer

#117

GreatPlayer said:

@LDXD Yes, you have just named a brilliant example of how Nintendo rehash the Mario games, and unfortunately, that line of franchase is not the only one...

LDXD

#120

LDXD said:

@GreatPlayer let's face it though Nintendo is not the only one guilty of what you're claiming here so if you point the finger at Mario or Nintendo you would also have to do the same for almost everyone else that's the point I'm trying to make not trying to sound offensive so I appolgize

apil87

#121

apil87 said:

@GreatPlayer Well, you can think that way, it's very popular these days. What is not so popular — is to understand that, for example, "rehashed" Mario Kart Wii is insanely innovative in comparison to "not so rehashed" "exciting race" Sonic Racing. And "rehashed" Mario Galaxy is a game of the year with super fresh feeling of the gameplay in comparison to the GTA or Call of Duty.

The fact is, some people just want to play GTA and bang-bang pseudo war games, and they think that Mario world is negatively childish and all the same. Let it be — I feel good that they play their brown-gray toys, I like colorful world of Mario games — why not?

GreatPlayer

#122

GreatPlayer said:

@apil87 My disagreement was your comparison between Mario Kart and Sonic Transformed. Of course we have different opinions about Mario Kart, but that was fine. I stop playing Mario Kart since MK DS (similar to MK in GBA anyway).

I don't think that bang-bang is the only reason people like a console. Look at Vita versus 3DS - which one is more bang-bang?

apil87

#123

apil87 said:

@GreatPlayer I've played Sonic Transformed after MKWii and MK7 and it was so dull... maybe i need more time to appreciate, but my feelings were pretty clear that time))

Well, I said "some people" like bang-bang) 3ds is an interesting example of how different we are: we've got a 3ds street-pass meetings in our town, and sometimes it seems I don't want to play ANY of the games that other people want to. The same things with them — it's like a niche groups in one place. Pokemon and MK7 for example.

Dogpigfish

#124

Dogpigfish said:

I think Nintendo will make plenty of money; whether they meet their unit goals or not. Wii U is a perfect Christmas present, especially since nobody knew about it last year. Also, black consoles sold out everywhere and that gave parents second thoughts. I don't see the same mistakes this year, but the digital deluxe thing still infuriates me.

Williaint

#125

Williaint said:

@gregrout Nintendo has never Insisted that developers use the G-Pad... That's the developer's decision. Encouraged is different than isisting... So, unless you are being sarcastic, most of what you've said have been half truths. I'm not sure why anyone would pay for Angry Birds, anyway; I thought it was free...

Ultimatechris

#127

Ultimatechris said:

But u know people, the 3ds was suffering just like the wii u but then more games came and look how the sales picked up making it the best selling console. So don't think the wii u can't do that as well because if u notice mario and sonic coming november could have easily come to 3ds but they made it a wii u exclusive so it sell more systems.

Neram

#128

Neram said:

@unrandomsam Well because Mario Kart is fun to play. All Stars Racing Transformed is clunky and has bad course design, it has too much of a learning curve to convey its appeal. Most people I've played with just quit right away. Besides, you don't know for sure if this Mario Kart is going to have the same balancing as the last one.

Neram

#129

Neram said:

@hwrose379 New SMB 2 sucked. That's not really the best example. My point is that non-gamers find it easier to pick up and play 2D Mario, combine that with gamers who also like it and you have Mario that appeals to more people, therefore selling better.

Neram

#130

Neram said:

@jrob23 Good point. I totally forgot they bundled New SMB Wii with the Wii over the last couple years. I think bundling the new game with Wii U will absolutely help sales, and is a good move. It's the game with the widest appeal.

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