News Article

Michael Pachter Suggests That Wii U Could Struggle

Posted by Thomas Whitehead

Too early to know

Earlier today we reported that the Gears of War developer expects Wii U success, so it would be remiss of us to not report the alternative viewpoint of well-known Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. On his regular GameTrailers show, Pachter answered a question about whether Wii U would face a similar fate to Dreamcast, an excellent console from SEGA that ultimately failed to achieve sales success. Part of his response was as follows:

I think that if in fact it’s a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate and control scheme, then it’s probably not going to sell well unless it’s priced a lot cheaper, and I don’t think they’re launching the console at $150. So, yeah I think they are about to Dreamcast themselves. I don’t think Wii U is going to be as popular as probably Nintendo thinks it’s going to be.

Question is, what does Nintendo do next, and I don’t know the answer yet. Let’s see how Wii U sells, and I’m not going to predict this demise until I know pricing and features. When I know more about it, I’ll offer a better opinion.

We'd suggest that before criticism is levelled at this viewpoint, it should be acknowledged that Pachter does admit that he needs more details to offer a more solid opinion. He also reiterated his belief in this show that Wii U should have been released sooner, perhaps as early as 2009: there's the argument that this console will inevitably be outgunned, in terms of graphical technology at least, within a couple of years of release.

The Wii succeeded with limited hardware but an innovative concept, so do you think Wii U will have to do the same, and if it does will it be able to do so? It's all speculation until full details of the console's capabilities are known, but with two prominent figures in the industry having such different views, its an interesting debate.

[via gametrailers.com]

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User Comments (127)

19Robb92

#3

19Robb92 said:

Of course he does. He's been nagging on the WiiU and Nintendo for ages now just because he as an analyst don't agree with their way of progressing in the market. He should just give it a rest already.

Nintendo knows what they're doing.

Malkeor

#4

Malkeor said:

Pachter saying something bad about Nintendo? This doesn't make any sense.
Seriously though price is indeed a factor but they have learned their lesson from the 3DS.
Actually this is one of the more agreeable things Pachter has said.

I think that innovation and how they use the controller will matter over power and graphical capability. Like someone else said earlier, I really don't think it'll be THAT big of a gap for graphics, and besides it's FULL 1080p. Wii was 480i or 480p with special component cables....and whatever comes next from the competitors won't exceed 1080p. Those 4k res TVs still have a ways to go before they are consumer friendly :P
Nintendo is overall better off, JUST talking about graphical capability.

BTW Thomas, get to work on more rumors. Those are oh so much fun ;)

Mk_II

#5

Mk_II said:

An analyst with his own show? That explains a lot, he is just grabbing eyeballs to line his own pocketses

bro2dragons

#7

bro2dragons said:

I just honestly want to know what this guy has ever been right about. I'm seriously not criticizing him or anything... I just have never read any of his predictions that came out correct. Yet he's an analyst that's constantly reported on, so there must be some reason why. I'm wondering what that reason is. Can anybody tell me?

RVN

#9

RVN said:

I predict something
then i predict the opposite
I HAVE GODLY POWERS!!!!!!!!!

Yrreiht

#11

Yrreiht said:

"I think that if in fact it's a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate and control scheme"

... You have absolutely no idea of what you're talking about right? This guy isn't an analyst at all, he's just a Nintendo hater, maybe he should start picking on another company... he's getting annoying.

kdognumba1

#12

kdognumba1 said:

Michael Pachter..... when it comes to Nintendo he shouldn't and everybody else shouldn't try and predict anything.

Neram

#13

Neram said:

First of all, what a stupid question, will the Wii U face the same demise as Dreamcast? The Dreamcast didn't fail because it was technically inferior to it's competitors, it failed because it didn't have a strong line-up of quality games. The Wii U will certainly have quality games from Nintendo and (seemingly) third-parties, perhaps more than any Nintendo console in the past few generations. This guy DOES NOT know what he's talking about, the sad part is, people will listen to him because he's an Analyst who has his own show.

ChosenOne25

#14

ChosenOne25 said:

The Wii U can't be much weaker than the Xbox 720 or PS4 because looking at PC horsepower at the moment next gen consoles should be a little weaker than current gen PCs. The graphics difference between PC and PS3/Xbox360 aren't that large anymore compared to PS2 era. PS3/Xbox360 are running at directx 9 while the new PC standard is directx 11. Next gen consoles should be able to run Directx 11 on Full HD 1080p. That ain't that difficult, and even if the Wii U can't run directx 11 it can still run at directx 10 less fancier, but not as noticable graphical difference. T.T My PC games on my ATI 6770M Laptop can already run many directx 11 games on 720p, Wii U should be able to pull that off without huge costs. Graphics should be sufficient so give it a rest T.T

SteveW

#16

SteveW said:

There is no way the Wii U is going to be similar to Xbox 360 (7+ year old graphics)... and like the Wii it's being launched with motion controls, not added 6 years after launch.

Kyloctopus

#17

Kyloctopus said:

Well Pachter is a professional E3 Predicter. However many developers who have full development kits (Yoshinori Ono, Michael Ancel, Mark Rein) say they love the Wii u, and it's bound to succeed.

Kirk

#18

Kirk said:

Pac really doesn't know what he's talking about half the time.

He knows figures, data and graphs and that's what he should stick to.

thanos316

#19

thanos316 said:

why do yall keep posting articles from this idiot. who ever decided to put this article onto the website can you please and im very serious, can you please let me know why this guy is so important. cause everything that he says about the video game situation yall post. this guy must be like game god or something..

Zergling

#21

Zergling said:

He is right the Wii U will not sell..... that is why they are renaming it the Revolution @ E3 : ) And the Revolution my friends will sell like hotcakes.

Debageldond

#22

Debageldond said:

Saying the Wii U might not be a success is one thing, but comparing it to Dreamcast is quite another. I understand that obvious comparisons are drawn between Nintendo and Sega, but the differences between the two companies are as vast as the differences between the consoles which preceded the Dreamcast and Wii U.

We've seen over the last couple of generations a shift in what's considered by many to be a "hardcore" game, as well as the emergence of a new culture of "hardcore gamers", marked by an obsession with graphics, framerate and lots of brown over creativity. Nintendo is often written off because their vision doesn't match that particular brand of game. As a result, it's often easy for analysts to forget that Nintendo, from a commercial standpoint, has pretty much "won" this generation. I'm not big on the "console wars" theme, but it's hard to understand the prediction of Nintendo's demise at a time when they are the most commercially successful. That criticism would have made much more sense if it were made in 2005. I also am tired of the ridiculous false dichotomy of "hardcore" and "casual", which to many means "epic angry violent brownfests" and "everything else". This is naturally ludicrous: no matter how you slice it, Nintendo's primary (first and second party games, along with good third party ones) are "hardcore". Super Mario Galaxy? Zelda? These are not Angry Birds or Cut the Rope. Those and stuff like Wii Sports/Play/Fit are the "casual games", and while Nintendo has done well to understand that market, I don't understand how so many can write off Nintendo's entire Wii library along those lines. Additionally, I really don't think smartphones are in much competition with the game market. I think they will coexist until the point where a smartphone can magically morph controller buttons, and by that point I doubt we'd have video games in the traditional sense. But that is neither here nor there.

The main point is that Nintendo is a much, much, much stronger company today than Sega was in the late 90s. Prior to Dreamcast, they had pretty much no market share, and they had been doing poorly for a while. The Wii has done better than any of its contemporaries, and even if it got typecast, it's money that matters in these conversations. The Wii U seems like a fairly solid bridge between what different gamers want, so it could somewhat break that stereotype. Add to that the fact that Nintendo is an incredibly shrewd company that is very good at turning failure into success. Even the Gamecube was a net profit for them, and we all know about the abysmal 3DS launch and its impressive recovery. Plus they seem to be sitting on an enormous pile of money and are extremely stubborn.

So in summary: lolno. Even if the Wii U fails more spectacularly than Dreamcast, Nintendo would probably survive. Plus that's almost impossible, since Nintendo is much better positioned and has done a lot of courting of third parties. Fortunately, we're also spared derpy arguments about smartphones, because this is not a handheld. Hooray! The worst that could happen is that it ends up like the Gamecube: still profitable, but in last place with Nintendo taking a reputation hit, not a mortal financial blow.

SkywardLink98

#23

SkywardLink98 said:

Really? Currently of course it's going to look like the Ps3/X360 right now because that's the software for developers to use, but when the Ps4/X720 come out it should be able to match them in terms of framerate and game engines.

CapedGodot

#25

CapedGodot said:

How is a [expletive] touch screen anything like the XBox360's control scheme? Seriously? This guy is full of [expletive].

ThomasBW84Admin

#26

ThomasBW84 said:

@thanos316 While Michael Pachter clearly isn't that popular here, based on comments so far, he's still a well-known analyst in the video game industry. I'd say he has a fairly provocative style, but part of our job is to share a variety of views on subjects when necessary: in this case the Wii U.

Earlier today we posted an article about the Epic Games vice president's opinion that Wii U will succeed, Pachter (who, again, is a well-known analyst in the gaming industry) has a different view. Clearly most here disagree with Pachter's comments (myself included), but its one side of a debate. If there are people with concerns about Nintendo we share that, just like we share views that support them in other articles.

Kirk

#29

Kirk said:

@ThomasBW84

Well, you'll share their view if the person is popular in the media.

I could give you a far more plausible take on what's likely to happen with the Wii U, certainly more likely than Pachter's general nay-saying since Nintendo didn't listen to him and release a pointless Wii HD a few years ago, but I don't think I'd get a front page article.

;)

bro2dragons

#31

bro2dragons said:

@ThomasBW84: I have a journalism background, so I understand completely your need to post his opinions, especially when running counter to the statements of the majority. I'm wondering, though, WHY does he have the position and industry respect he does? He must have at some point proven some great insight into the gaming industry, but I haven't the foggiest idea when that might have been and I'm genuinely curious.

kkslider5552000

#32

kkslider5552000 said:

@Neram Are you actually implying Dreamcast's games were anything except amazing?

And again, Dreamcast failed because people bought a dvd system (that eventually turned into a gaming system) called the PS2 and because Sega is often a dumb company.

Kirk

#33

Kirk said:

@TrueWiiMaster

I really don't think he gets that much right.

When he's simply quoting industry figures and stuff he's fine and dandy but whenever he tries to predict the future of the industry, or any companies or games in it etc, it's usually just rubbish that for the most part ends up totally way off the mark as far as I remember.

Someone might be able to show otherwise however.

@bro2dragons

I've often wondered the same thing about Pachter too...

HaNks

#34

HaNks said:

sounds like this 'analyst' has a terrible track record. not even worth reporting on, aside from to laugh at.

Capt_N

#35

Capt_N said:

In a CNet article I read, an MS rep said the successor to the 360 wasn't going to come out until the fall of next year, at least, & that it would be about 20% more powerful than what the WiiU is supposed to be. I do feel that the WiiU will eventually become the least powerful (console next gen), since right now, it's only supposed to be about, not exactly, but about 50% stronger than the 360 is now.

Now, in counter (-argument) to that, the WiiU may have stronger raw (horse-)power elsewhere in it's design. I do know that Nintendo is probably banking more on innovation, rather than raw power, particularly graphics capabilities, & that's not necessarily a bad thing. However, if any competition next gen, decides to copy Nintendo's concepts for the WiiU, then the only ground Nintendo has to stand on, in regards to having something the competition doesn't, is firstly their own ips(first, & second party ips), & as a possible second (grounding platform) strong third-party ties.

That's the main problem w/ being the first next-gen con(sole) out: any competition can copy. However, this "the-cheese-stands-alone" business give Nintendo plenty of next-gen monopoly, for as long as until competition arrives.

Nintendo should hit hard, & strong while they are the only next-gen game in town, or perhaps they should "bottle-up" some of their spark, & save it for when competition arrives, & just coast in the interim. Better still, don't coast, but use the relaxation of being the only next-gen console on the market for the time it is, to heavily(read: pro-actively) prepare for competition.

grimbldoo

#36

grimbldoo said:

@Malkeor #4
That's what I've been saying. The highest quality right now is 1080, and it probably won't change for several years and by then it would be too late for Sony and Microsoft because the Wii U will have gotten a ton of popularity. And the 1080p TV's just came out, even if they have a better resolution they can't sell it for some years and even then it would probably be too expensive and nobody would buy it.

@ChosenOne25 #16
Why don't more people realize this?

@thanos316 #21
:areyounotentertained: Because they are very entertaining

@Debageldond #24
"Playing the new FPS, which is like the other one except she just has a different color of eye shadow this time!" :sohardcore:

@SkywardLink98 #25
Right? And especially with the amount of third-party support they are getting and probably will get

@Capt_N #36
Unless Microsoft is going to mass produce their own 1260p TV's then the only thing you are going to get is faster loading screens.

This guy needs to do some more research.

Gamesake

#38

Gamesake said:

Microsoft and Sony are the ones who are going to be slashing their prices this Christmas, if they ever hope to sell another console again.

AVahne

#40

AVahne said:

Oh look, it's Pachter. Spouting BS once again I see. Even if he admits that he needs more information, that doesn't excuse him from being accused of being the idiot that he truly is.

Yanchamaru

#42

Yanchamaru said:

Nintendo has a better track record then Sega, so mentioning the Wii U will end up like the Dreamcast is nonsense. The Dreamcast had amazing games and the price was dirt cheap, but a lot of gamers had ill feelings towards Sega from the previous lack of support of the 32X, Sega CD and Saturn. As post #23 said, Nintendo is a much stronger company then Sega was in the 90's.

bezerker99

#43

bezerker99 said:

In real life, Pachter may not win many awards - but I'm sure that makes it easier for him to dust off his mantle.

C-195

#44

C-195 said:

Isn't this guy the one that never has a clue what he's talking about and no one cares what he thinks anyway?

Faron

#46

Faron said:

Wii were supposed to lose to PS3 and 360. Ds were supposed to lose to psp. 3ds were supposed to get it's handed to it by psvita. And look what happened. Wouldn't it be more realistic at this point at last start to predict win to Nintendo consoles. Otherwise you're just stupid and making the same wrong assumptions every time a new generation is coming out.

Chris720

#47

Chris720 said:

This guy again? Someone kill him already! He's not an analyst, he's a Nintendo hater and he needs to pee off...

bro2dragons

#48

bro2dragons said:

I can only imagine he's just thinking that nothing can last forever and one day Nintendo will fall out of the video game market. It seems like he's banking his whole career on being able to say ,"I called it."

It looks like to ensure that happening, he's just going to "predict" their doom at every turn and when it finally happens he'll be the first to tell you all about how he was the only one who knew it all along.

FonistofCruxis

#49

FonistofCruxis said:

Its too early to make these sorts of assumptions with the lack of information there is on the console but unless no one here knows then can someone please explain to me why this guy gets so much attention, why people bother listening to him and why his opinion is news worthy?

DarkKirby

#50

DarkKirby said:

Well, Michael Pachter didn't do any research at all before spouting random nonsense.

Truth: For the Wii U to not fail it has to not be anti multiplatform like the Wii was. And don't put tons of regulations on what games are and aren't allowed to have to try to keep a "kid friendly" reputation.

fortius54

#51

fortius54 said:

You wonder why this guy is even employed. You also wonder why people keep giving him an audience. I think he predicted lower sales for the Wii last year. That's about the only thing he has been right on. Taking into consideration that everyone had a Wii already, that's not a stretch. Other Han that, he's an idiot.

ThomasBW84Admin

#52

ThomasBW84 said:

@bro2dragons To answer that fully would involve digging around all of his old shows and articles, but its safe to say that he's spoken with sense on plenty of occasions, otherwise he (probably) wouldn't be such a prominent analyst.

I have heard Pachter make very sensible comments in the past about the future of the FPS genre, the role of MMORPG games, costs of HD development and similar issues. He's often tough on Nintendo, and I'm of the opinion that the sales figures for Wii and DS (and gradually 3DS) don't lie, and that he can be a bit narrow-sighted and ignore the company's strengths.

I also think that Wii U will succeed, especially if Ninty convince the general public that it's a tablet/home console/entertainment unit all in one. Many of us know the controller isn't exactly an iPad-style stand-alone tablet, but as a living-room tablet device at potentially half the price of Apple's behemoth, it could get some killer sales. Oh, and then there's Mario...

Sean_Aaron

#56

Sean_Aaron said:

I have to side with Thomas here. Pachter is respected because he's nearly alone in his field. Until him few financial analysts paid attention to the games industry. He has contact with development studios and a decent understanding of how the industry works inside and out.

If he comes off as a "hater" it's because like all financial analysts he wants companies to make decisions that will mean more money for his clients, though again, like all financial analysts the decisions he thinks companies should make aren't necessarily in the best interest of those companies.

He's responding to a query from a viewer on his show, so he's trying to give an answer other than "I don't know" - not really fair to slag off his opinion when he's stated up-front he's just stabbing in the dark. Frankly given how Nintendo's rep suffered amongst many of the so-called "core gamers" over the past few years, it is arguably a big gamble for Nintendo to try to target them with a machine that is clearly also trying to compete with iOS devices or at least get some leftovers from them.

I'm going to break with past tradition and get this machine upon release, but I don't feel invested to the point of attacking anyone who criticises it.

DarkKirby

#58

DarkKirby said:

@grimbldoo

I'm not saying Nintendo shouldn't sell rated E games, I'm saying they shouldn't filter and restrict what is allowed to be sold on their systems.

Flowerlark

#60

Flowerlark said:

We've seen the 3DS have a shaky start due to some poor decisions on Nintendo's part. Hopefully they've learned from their mistakes and will have a full-featured and reasonably priced system at launch. If they don't a lot of fans are going to lose faith and start migrating to other platforms.

kyuubikid213

#61

kyuubikid213 said:

This is the same thing that comes every turn with a new Nintendo console. The Wii did alright, the DS also pulled through, and the 3DS actually blew up just as people were saying "I told you so." The Wii U will be the same.

Here is my prediction.
It will start off like the 3DS. Many people will buy it at launch and (like with all launch titles) some of them won't be up to par. Then the "Wii U will fail and Nintendo with it" arguments will rise up. Nintendo releases Pokemon Coliseum Wii U, Zelda: Hyrule's Destiny (HD), and Super Mario U-niverse. Then, the Wii U sales will skyrocket. The price will stay normal until the 720 and/or PS4 come out and then BAM price cut. More games flow to Wii U. 720 and PS4 stay at their (now higher) prices. Developers make games multiplatform (for real this time) with Wii U, 720, and PS4 while re-releasing 360 and PS3 games now Wii U compatible. Everything settles out for about 2 years and Sony copies the Wii U controller, but makes it sleeker and gives it a capacitive touch screen. Microsoft makes a new Zune that is compatible with the 720 in a similar way. Then another 3 or 4 years pass. Nintendo stays with the Wii U and the 720 and PS4 are upgraded to Slim versions. After this, the Wii U gets a successor, the Virtual Wii. Next generation begins.

grimbldoo

#62

grimbldoo said:

@DarkKirby #59
I think that they should because: one gore and sensuality don't make the game the least bit better in any way, and two, a lot of their systems are purchased by families and parents feel more comfortable with the censorship, even though they are not obligated to buy the game, they would rather not have it available for the system anyway. But they could at least be less strict with their censorship. But Nintendo did have The House of the Dead: Overkill which made a Guiness World record for f-bombs dropped in a video game

http://www.youtube.com/embed/4nOSUbEqLKs
go to 33:10 listen. The drop is amazing

Rosalina

#64

Rosalina said:

The way i view this.
You can't take your home console with you every where.
The WiiU is just like a console except you can take it everywhere with you.

thanos316

#65

thanos316 said:

im just really tired of hearing from him. he must get paid well or something i swear. im sure if i search other gaming sites this same article from patcher on the wii u will be there. well whatever, he wont stop me from picking up a wii u if it looks like a good purchase in the fall. and if i don't go with the wii u in the fall then i will definitely go the pc route

misswliu81

#67

misswliu81 said:

i don't care what that man says. nintendo will prevail as always. they did it with the wii and DS, with the 3DS hopefully following suit.

timp29

#69

timp29 said:

We are pretty much at the ceiling of graphical quality until either TV's with more pixels are released, or consoles are made for 3D TV's. Nintendo proved that releasing a console first within a generation gathers a significant section of the market; they also cater to casual gamers - another section of the market; and they have a pretty faithful fan base - namely us :p
I think they will do pretty well again.

WaxxyOne

#73

WaxxyOne said:

I agree that the Wii U could potentially fail for Nintendo. The hardware is probably not going to be as powerful as the next XBox or Playstation, and casual gamers who were wowed by the original Wii probably won't be so keen to buy this up right away.

I believe the key factor will be the price point which Nintendo can sell the system at out of the gate. If they can offer a fancy new system with innovative control features at launch for $300 or less, Microsoft and Sony will be hard-pressed to compete on their level. It's all a question of whether Nintendo is willing to bite the bullet and take a loss or not.

I would really like to see the Wii U, and Nintendo, continue to succeed. However I am a little more worried about this system's launch than I have been in a while. Here's hoping to a great start for the system.

komicturtle

#74

komicturtle said:

Every console struggles. At some point. Wii was at it's peak upon it's release but had started fluctuating. Then, PS3 started it's life fluctuating and now, it's doing well.

Can I be an analyst now?

skywake

#76

skywake said:

I gave up trusting predictions on what would happen with Nintendo consoles after the 3DS. People had it dead before it was out because of iPhones and iPads and it's future looked horrible before I got mine. Then I got it anyway because of OoT and Mario Kart..... and all of a sudden it's doing ridiculously well.

I think it's best just to ignore whatever people say and stop trying to guess how long a console will live. If it launches and it looks crap wait, if it has the games you want jump on board. Enjoy it for what it is. If it fails like the Dreamcast at least you can be one of those smug barstewards in 2025 who will say "I owned a Wii U, it was great".

Bankai

#77

Bankai said:

Roughly 70 people here reckon they know better than a professional analyst.

Good stuff. Let's see those qualifications, folks. I'm gonna bet one or two of you are actually in a position to provide a respectable counter-argument. If that. Because being a Nintendo fan and wanting a Wii U doesn't actually count as a qualification for analysing the business side of this industry.

He made a completely fair analysis here, for the record. The Wii U is up against a wall. Nintendo may well make it a success, and he's made provisions for that in his analysis.

iroxursox

#78

iroxursox said:

a lot of game designers have stated that the Wii U is twice as powerful as the Xbox 360

JayceJa

#79

JayceJa said:

the wii is a casual console, a VERY large majority of it's market are casual gamers that are not interested in a HD console and WILL be put off by the Wii U's high cost at release, just like the 3DS flopped at release, the only reason the 3ds is doing so well now is because sony made the same mistake with the vita being so expensive and catered to hardcore gamers(which doesnt work in the handheld market)
'hardcore' gamers on the otherhand already have the 360 and ps3, so what do they gain by buying the wii u, pretty much nothing except access to first party games that they are not interested in anyway

hopefully nintendo has learnt their lesson from the 3ds enouhg to release the wii u at an affordable price, but to do so, it wont be as powerful as the next gen sony/microsoft consoles because they have a whole few years of innovation and decreasing in costs of components to release a more powerful console at the same cost

an expensive hd nintendo console released this year will only really capture the hardcore nintendo fans, and relative to the market, that fanbase is actually very small

DraculaX

#80

DraculaX said:

@ChocoGoldfish I'm glad there is someone here who has the courage to say that. Seriously, some of these people overreact if someone speaks ill of a Nintendo console.

@all Besides it is not like the Wii U will fail. If Apple can sell pricey tablets, then I'm pretty sure Nintendo can do it as well.

kyuubikid213

#81

kyuubikid213 said:

@scribblenaut It isn't that we are all raging fanboys waiting to jump on anyone against Nintendo, it's that we are defending something we enjoy.

If a Sony or Microsoft fan heard berating comments about their system of choice, they would defend it and rightfully so. There is a point when it is fanboy-bickering (the "my console's better than yours" argument), but when someone downright says something baseless and mean about what you like, you will defend it.

grimbldoo

#82

grimbldoo said:

@timp29 #70
Exactly! Is this so hard for people to understand? And they just released 1080p TV's anyway, they are not going higher for a while.

@WaxxyOne #74
You can't go past 1080p yet and they wouldn't sell 1260p TV's yet even if they were able to make them. At $500 Sony and Microsoft would still be hard pressed

@ChocoGoldfish #78
Not really, he didn't even know the littlest thing about the Wii U. I think it's fair to say that everyone here has more info than he does.

@JayceJa #80
I think that it will probably be $500, $100 more than the 360 at launch, and $200 less than the PS3 at launch (especially since there isn't going to be a dvd player) which is not too much to ask for.

Imagine23

#83

Imagine23 said:

someone's a "know-it-all"

Every game system has had a false start, but they've all picked up the pace after the next few months

Bankai

#84

Bankai said:

@83: Go on then. Prove it. Prove how the Wii U is going to be a success in the market. I expect data to back it up. Prove this knowledge, because for the past 80 or so comments I've seen no proof that anyone knows anything more than Pachter.

It never ceases to amaze me that unqualified people would never dream to tell a heart surgeon how to do his/ her job, but apparently they know more about markets and business than analysts and executives, despite analysts and executives having just as much, if not more, experience and training as a surgeon.

Unless those people agree with the analyst or executive, in which case they're very smart people who are "right." It's funny how that works.

grimbldoo

#85

grimbldoo said:

@ChocoGoldfish #85
Calm down and reread my comment. I did not and do not claim to know whether or not the Wii U will be successful. What I did state is that I think (think, not know) that the users here probably know more than he does about the Wii U

Debageldond

#86

Debageldond said:

@ChocoGoldfish
There is certainly a lot of overreaction in the comments section here, but asking people who disagree with him to "prove it" with "data" is pretty silly. There is no data. That's the point. Neither Patcher nor his detractors have any data, which is why there's a multitude of opinions here. As an analyst, one is essentially making educated guesses. The closest thing to "data" would be looking at historical trends and trying to map as closely as possible with the present. The troubling thing about that is that reality doesn't always fit trends perfectly. Very, very rarely does the best team in baseball win the World Series.

Also, I'm taking huge issue here with your claim that analysts having as much or more experience and training as a surgeon (notsureifsrs). But let's pretend that actually is true for a moment. This is not a topic that even analysts agree upon, and there's clearly a lot of room for argument both ways, so why would people on here disagreeing with Patcher be tantamount to telling a surgeon how to operate on your heart. With heart surgery, things are much more clear-cut but the stakes are much higher. As a heart surgeon, you usually know what's going to happen but you also can't afford to be wrong. There are some variables which could potentially interfere, but they are much fewer than here. Of course, if you're a heart surgeon, you can't afford to be/do wrong, and you use your education and experience to prevent that from happening. It's an awful analogy. It's more like saying you can't disagree with a politician on one side of a hotly-debated issue--you're ignoring the other side which is equally large/relevant.

Additionally, Patcher called his credibility into question with his comment about the Wii U's similarities to the Xbox 360, which was pretty much unfounded if you follow what little information there is on the Wii U. Also, there is a contingent of individuals who thrive off attention by saying provocative things, and I'm wondering if Patcher might be a part of that group. Perhaps he isn't, but one can understand how some might see him that way. You are far too trusting of "professionals". While I agree that many hard-working and intelligent individuals who are unfairly questioned and get less credit than they deserve, there are also those who have achieved success for very shallow reasons. I'm not saying this necessarily applies to Patcher, just that his status as an "analyst" does not give him carte blanche to say whatever he pleases and not be rebuffed by those with fewer "qualifications".

I understand that you're frustrated by the fanboyism here, and it does get pretty out of control at times (I saw you correctly call someone out before for saying Apple copied the DS with the iPhone). There are a few comments here that are a bit, shall we say, overzealous and unbalanced, but it's sort of what you have to expect on a Nintendo-centric site. But it does get annoying at times.

chiptoon

#87

chiptoon said:

I love how he's now graduated to actually saying in his statements that he hasn't got a clue what he's talking about.

Also, what a stupid statement. The Dreamcast wasn't just unsuccessful commercially, it was the console that ended Sega's involvement with hardware. This is not happening to Nintendo anytime soon, most especially because of the incridible recent success of the 3DS.

ecco6t9

#88

ecco6t9 said:

Two main differences here.

Nintendo has money in the bank.
And other than from 1999-2003 Sega has always been horribly mismanaged.

Mini_Mario

#90

Mini_Mario said:

Good ol' Pachter, always with the doom and gloom...

He's kinda like those "earth is gonna end" on march 31st guys.

Of corse the Earth is still here and Nintendo will live on forever !

DarkKirby

#91

DarkKirby said:

@grimbldoo

You're entitled to your opinion, and I understand Nintendo want's to hold on to the market Sony and Microsoft ignore, but I think the reason the Wii failed in the end was because after all the casuals got bored with it it was simply unable to play the multiplatform games other systems had. The 3DS already has a lock to prevent kids from doing certain things, the only problem is when parents even refuse to read the manual (which unfortunately happens all too often). I don't think it's right to hold back the entire system and its collection of games because some parents insist on being ignorant of what games are what.

Jono97

#93

Jono97 said:

Well, I don't think the WII U would get the boost like the WII did. The WII was a revolution when it came out. It went on the news. But the WII U won't appear on the news...

WaxxyOne

#94

WaxxyOne said:

@grimbldoo #83
$500 would be a stretch for Nintendo's usual target audience. Remember the 360 originally came out for less than that price, and it's possible the next one will as well unless Microsoft gets caught up in the hardware power race with Sony and is forced to sell it higher. A $500-at launch Wii U would almost be guaranteed to fail, IMHO.

Also I'm not sure what the resolution of your HD TV has to do with anything. There's a lot more to a console's power than the resolution it can output. You also have to think of things like polygon counts and texture fill rates, the amount of RAM the system boasts, etc. Just because 1080P is probably not going anywhere soon doesn't mean the systems won't continue to get more powerful. You also have to add extra horsepower to support the emerging 3D market.

grimbldoo

#95

grimbldoo said:

@DarkKirby #92
Very true, there are many good games that could have been on the Wii if not for the censorship. Which is why I said they should be less strict on it, because sometimes, there really is a limit.

@WaxxyOne #95
True, and since it doesn't have a dvd player it may end up being $300 with Nintendo making a profit off of each system. There aren't many games on the PS3 and 360 that 3D would make a difference. Sure having a faster loading screen is nice, but I can handle two more seconds of wait time. More polygons, that escaped me.

erv

#96

erv said:

Analysts and vision don't mix.

But WiiU will probably be a tougher sell - it all depends on the price point in terms of volume, it depends on the execution (online infrastructure, interface, ease etc.) for its momentum.

MAB

#97

MAB said:

If my memory serves me right then the opposite of what this guy says always happens. So if he really wants ninty to fail he should be praising how great the wiiu will be. MicroSoft and Sony obviously throw money at this person to say these things without any solid proof or analytical data to back it up.

potomas

#98

potomas said:

Oh no someone slagged off nintendo boo hoo.This guy sounds like he knows what he is talking about more than any of u.Chocogoldfish has made the only sensible comments here.It's like no one can say the smallest negative thing about wii u without you all going nuts

WiiUFan

#100

WiiUFan said:

As long as they keep innovating and the developers will use the Wii U's full potential I also think the Wii U will do fine.

MAB

#101

MAB said:

How can anyone know what they're talkin about when the complete opposite always happens whenever they open their mouth

kyuubikid213

#103

kyuubikid213 said:

@Aviator I enjoy it because I enjoyed the Wii, the DS, the 3DS, the GameCube, the N64, and the SNES and NES the few times I was able to play them. I have faith in it and I can't wait for it to come out.

You asked me a similar question about a month ago about the PSVita "How can I prefer the 3DS when I hadn't experienced the Vita yet?" The post was blocked, but in response, I HAD played the Vita as a demo at GameStop. I compared my experience with that with the first time I had played a 3DS. I found it alright, but it didn't wow me as much as the 3DS did. Also, I prefered that for the same reason as I listed above as to why I enjoyed the Wii U. I had past Nintendo Handhelds, so I enjoyed the 3DS before it came out. I also didn't enjoy the PSP, so I didn't enjoy the Vita as much as I could have.

Sorry to everyone else for the long off-topic comment...

theblackdragonAdmin

#104

theblackdragon said:

LISTEN UP

Please remember the Community Rules, guys — if you want to discuss the article, great, but if all you want to do is tear into each other, that's where we draw the line. please keep your comments focused on the article and situation at hand, and not each other.

Also, please understand that we have never tolerated homophobic jokes, 'your mom' jokes, nor profanity here. If those are the things you'd like to say, please say them elsewhere on the internet, as they do not engender the sort of conversation we'd like to see happening here at Nintendo Life.

Thank you! :3

MAB

#105

MAB said:

I like my moms jokes :) and I ban future pachter suggestions as big news features
Its all cool babe

skywake

#106

skywake said:

@Waltz
I think you really have to look at Pachter as a personality on a show designed to get views more than a professional analyst giving investment advice. Who do you think the target audience of that show are? I wouldn't be taking his views on that show too seriously.

To the point I was making this is an unpredictable market. The 3DS was pretty much DOA and look what happened there. So really the best approach to this sort of news should be "meh". At the end of the day we're buying consoles to enjoy the games we like so if there are games you like... buy the console to enjoy the games. Simple as that.

BulbasaurusRex

#107

BulbasaurusRex said:

Well, it's a good thing the Wii U will be a lot more powerful than an XBox 360 and won't have a similar control scheme.

This guy always bashes Nintendo, and he rarely turns out to be right.

X-145

#108

X-145 said:

I honestly think the only factor that would put people off is the price. I've heard rumors of $300...yikes. If it is $200 or even at $250 at max, I think it'll do well. But this guy seriously isn't good at predicting things...all around...

LEGEND_MARIOID

#109

LEGEND_MARIOID said:

We don't know the exact specs of the Wii U yet anyone and neither does he REALLY. How can he comment then? Some strong rumours say its significantly more powerful than the psbox consoles anyway

Doma

#111

Doma said:

He acknowledged it himself – his opinion is premature and worthless.

Why is this being reported?

MeloMan

#113

MeloMan said:

An opinion... nothing more. That's like me saying a mission to Mars is destined for failure... none of us will know until that day gets here. Anyway, in other news...

FOREST_RANGER

#114

FOREST_RANGER said:

Well, while it's too early to tell estimate Wii U's success, I'm a wee bit concerned. I haven't heard of a single Wii U game to be released as a launch title; the Wii U didn't make as big as an impression as the Wii did (in my humble opinion); that controller looks like it drives up the manufacturing and development costs; if Nintendo sells at a lost, a bad lineup of launch games may not impress a lot of gamers and could hurt profits.

TrueWiiMaster

#115

TrueWiiMaster said:

@ChocoGoldfish
Doesn't the fact that he's usually wrong, at least whenever I see him, discredit him to a degree? No matter how long someone's been in the business or how much schooling they've had, if they're regularly wrong, they lose authority. Based on this guy's track record, I'd say a coin flip would just as credible.

If that doesn't work, how about the fact that his statement is full of flaws? He compares the Wii U's situation to the Dreamcast's, despite the two being very different. He insinuates the Wii U will have 360 graphics, even though it has already been confirmed to be stronger. Finally, he places system value squarely on those misinformed graphics, as if the name and controller would be irrelevant. Certainly even the opinion of the most talented analyst would be discredited if based on false information, and Pachter's far from being the most talented analyst.

Malkeor

#116

Malkeor said:

Alot of people just don't understand Nintendo logic.
But that's exactly what they do in the market. They disrupt it, and end up doing really well while competitors try and catch up in the late term.

Analysts are sketchy because it's obviously really different and new and it can be hard to grasp when we just know the basic concept.

Pachter is no different.
Sure any technology can be better when released sooner rather than later, but it's so much more than that. We're looking at an entire new control scheme with a plethora of ideas.
It doesn't matter what the competitors do....this is unique.

So take that mr. analyst man! Samus thumbs down
(it's fun to go with the flow)

Neonpowerstar

#117

Neonpowerstar said:

@TrueWiiMaster
THANK YOU. I couldn't have said it any better.
If this were any other analyst making these predictions I might take them seriously, but Pachter has been wrong about so many things recently that it's kind of hard to take him seriously. He almost seems to be predicting the exact opposite of what actually happened lately. Granted, he has made some accurate predictions, but then again someone who was just making random guesses would have a significant chance of making at least one correct prediction.
Also, the science of economic analysis is by its nature somewhat unreliable. It's like forecasting the weather; you can make somewhat accurate short-term predictions but long-term predictions or predictions made with inaccurate initial conditions are unreliable. Since we know next to nothing about the Wii U we don't have accurate initial conditions yet, so it's kind of early to start making these kinds of predictions. On top of all that, as those above me have already said, Pachter is making unwarranted assumptions. "I think that if in fact it’s a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate and control scheme,"... I stopped taking him seriously right there. Who seriously believes that the Wii U will only have 360-level graphics? The Wii U will also be nothing like the 360 in terms of controls; the last time I checked, my 360 controller didn't have a big touchscreen in the middle of it and it couldn't be used with Wii Remotes.
Why doesn't he re-analyze the Wii U's performance when we have more solid information about it and I'll consider taking him seriously.

MortalKombat2007

#118

MortalKombat2007 said:

I do not see what Patcher means by "Dreamcast themselves." Nintendo is certainly not going under if the Wii U is not successful as they hope for. In addition, the Dreamcast is not what hurt Sega. During the lifespan the Dreamcast, third party companies were hesitant to support the console due to a poor track record of poor quality products, specifically the Sega CD and 32X.

KryptoKrunch

#119

KryptoKrunch said:

Priced cheaper? We don't know the price of it yet. Of course it won't be priced at $150; does that mean it's going to fail? I can't believe people are still comparing Sega with Nintendo..

Drewroxsox

#121

Drewroxsox said:

Who the hell is paying this guy for his half-baked opinions on things gaming related. If he believes that the WiiU is going to be the dreamcast, then he needs to stfu. Mario & Zelda will sell this console because those are the two titles everyone who owns something by nintendo likes. Isn't this the same guy who predicted doom and gloom for the 3ds?

Chriiis

#123

Chriiis said:

With the price talk and such, I personally wouldn't mind if it were about 350ish, considering that we know very little about it, and what we do know so far makes me wonder what greater news is yet to come.

Just the comparison of what we know(how powerful it is assumed to be, etc.) and them most likely saving the best stuff for this year's E3, I think $350 is a steal.

I doubt this guy's prediction will mean much since it seems like we'll have much better support for the Wii U in terms of 3rd party and such. I wasn't really 'caught' by the Wii as much, so pretty much stopped after the Gamecube, but I think I might get the Wii U on launch, especially if it happens to be the above price. Just excited any way you look at it, haha.

puzzle-kitty

#126

puzzle-kitty said:

Well, all I got to say is to do a test run, sell some, and make some really good games to play because to me that is all that matters. Playing the game and having fun...... <3 ZELDA SERIES..... :3

hydeks

#127

hydeks said:

if Nintendo has a system release after Wii U and is still a hardware company, I'll be shocked!

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