Topic: Wii U is safe from the NX!? Seems to be true

PS2 + XB = 170 million sales
PS3 + XB360 = 170 million sales
PS4 + XB1 = 35 million sales

Like, I get what you're saying and mostly agree, but the 'core' is not anywhere near saturation at the moment.

Going to stick up for him and say, the Xbox One and PS4 have only been out a year or two.. those consoles have been out for much longer. Naturally their sales are going to look bigger as they accumulate over time.

That is besides the point. The argument was that most gamers already got a XOne or PS4. The numbers tell us that the majority of those who bought consoles last gen, have not bought a console this time around.

No..., they say that we're in the early years of this generation. Assuming gen 8 lasts as long, those numbers will be a lot closer by the end. Anyway, my point was that nearly all of the 'core' gamers already have a new system, because they're the most engaged and interested in new stuff.

@Haru17: That group is a minority, and even then, there's still quite a few of those people haven't upgraded. Nintendo needs the general public - the rest of the people who haven't upgraded.

By the time the NX releases it won't have the opportunity to serve as a primary console, it'll be mid generation with nearly half of last gens install bases or so. Nintendo can only sell their console on their games, not as an everything box, like the X1 and PS4. And before anyone quibbles that the Wii U was tried to be sold on games... no, no that's real dumb. It launched with one first party game and Mario Kart and Smash didn't come until years later. The NX will have to launch with Zelda and some other in development AAA. Maybe another Mario Kart could be ready for its launch, but not Smash Bros, obviously.

@Haru17: Smash is easy enough to solve. Remaster of Smash 4 with all of the DLC included. Done. Smash 5 is the swansong that they'll pull a Twilight Princess on.

I expect something like your latter point, dependent, of course, on how well the NX does, but the former? I don't know if a remaster would significantly pull sway and, separate from that, if Nintendo would ever go through with that. Granted, it would explain Smash 4's quite long tail of DLC. Of course none of this matters if Nintendo's new machines are backwards compatible.

A remastered Smash with all the DLC and maybe some extras could probably go a long way. It'd also be a good way to launch your new console. But that's just my thoughts. I have no idea if it would actually work or not.

@Haru17: Double standards much? I mean I asked what point there would be in releasing new hardware that doesn't improve the spec much over the Wii U. Pointed out the existing library and install base on the Wii U and what a waste of effort it would be to start from zero with the same hand. You responded that nope, it's all about marketing and content. But the PS4/XBOne have 35mill sales? Oh well, there's NO WAY they can compete against that with any hardware. 35million is ALL of the core gamers. There is now nobody left that cares about a graphical upgrade.

What I think is really weird though is your theory on what this machine actually is. I mean what, it's a portable that you plug into your TV.... and it's backwards compatible now? Do you even read what you type?

Lol, they're far less than 35 million engaged 'core' gamers, by my estimation. Just look at software sales; they don't suggest that many engaged gamers. And even less than that, most people don't finish the games they do buy, so, yes, nearly all of the most engaged gamers ATM have a gaming machine of some sort. It only follows that the NX would have to be a second system purchase for most adopters, so cost effectiveness is more important than specs. Just look at the PC, it has the highest specs and the smallest install base.

Nintendo trying to directly compete with PS4 and X1 at this point would be... unsuccessful. They have to offer a different kind of platform. Maybe they can try to be one of the trio again after a more successful platform launch, but for now there's PS, XB, sorta-kinda PC maybe sometimes, and Nintendo who are in their own section of the venn diagram altogether.

Okay guys, hear me out. What if the NX IS just an android powered device? And what if, it sells extremely well? So well, that other companies don't see the point in making hugely powerful game consoles that cost millions of dollars to make games for. What if nintendo actually STRENGHTHENS the mobile/shovelware gaming market?

Ummm... I would much rather have a Nintendo version of a PS4.... JRPGs, Nintendo games, 3rd party games, Nintendo themes for the interface, actual good account system... I'm pretty sure alotta people would buy that.

Except you can't just conjure third party support upon a new console release, unless you're an xbox or playstation. Make no mistake, NX will have practically no JRPGs not made by Monolith Soft or Intelligent Systems. The Japanese market is dead set on the PS3, if not phones, and the AAA JRPGs get translated and released on PS4 for the West.

There's a dozen or so AAA JRPGs coming out in Japan on PS4 over the next couple of years.

And I think the smart money is on Dragon Quest XI being a 3DS exclusive or a PS4/NX multiplat release, depending on if it's a 2016 or 2017 game. I guess it depends on how much influence Yuji Horii has. He wants a console game, but Square Enix will want the game that will sell the most copies, and that would almost certainly be on 3DS.

Yep, and they'll sell 2 copies in Japan and 1+ million in the West, vice versa for the PS3.

But wouldn't the situation with the Wii U actually encourage Nintendo to go crazy for 3rd party support and stuff? I mean... I love my Wii U but who wants another console disaster?! If the NX isn't the ultimate Nintendo console then I hope it's cheap and still impressive in its own way. If not... Burn it. Prevent another Wii U disaster, Nintendo.

@Blast: You seem to be under this impression that Nintendo can pull 3rd party support out of a hat. I assure you this is not the case. I've voiced my beliefs on this issue multiple times as to why I don't think full 3rd party support will come to a Nintendo system any time within the near future, so if you're interested in a full explanation, you can probably find it somewhere. The basic gist of it, however, is that as long as Nintendo makes underpowered (cheap) consoles that use some form of innovative control (non-standard controller) and can't recapture the attention of the gaming market as a whole, but still insist on putting their own games out on their own home console, Nintendo isn't going to be charming many 3rd parties back onto their systems. Not every company has a problem with all of these issues. We've seen that Activision is willing to work with non-standard control schemes and that power was never really an obstacle to SEGA or Namco, but each problem seems to lose Nintendo a lot of support and NOBODY wants to develop for a system with a low install base that's far more likely to save their money for the next Nintendo hit or just get it on a different system.

Even if we assume that your arbitrary 35mill figure is somehow true that's not a static number. It's a constantly changing set of users. People upgrade, have their old hardware die or whatever. Kids get their first consoles and on the other side people get too busy to keep buying games. It's nonsense to just assume that everyone who would be wanting to buy a "PS4 level" console already has one.

A different kind of platform. Like a clone of the Wii U released four years after the fact? As I asked, why would they replace the Wii U without having something worth replacing it with? Besides, you can't just assume that what was true for 2014 will remain true into 2017. The industry isn't static. I'm not saying they should try to compete with the PS4 in the sense that they'd start another hardware arms race. What I'm saying is that for a 2016/17 console they're wasting their time if it's not competitive with the 2013 PS4 spec wise. Just because.

And I've pointed this out elsewhere and before to you even but the PS4 spec isn't a massive task. It's not an expensive target. In 2012, about as far before the PS4's launch as we are back from late 2016 now, a "PS4 spec" GPU cost around $280AU. Today a new GPU of the same spec is closer to $160AU. Retail. The same hardware strategy that gave us the Wii U? That will deliver something that's competitive with the PS4 spec wise by late 2016.

The only way I can see them not being "competitive with the PS4" is if they do something drastically different. Like this fabled "hybrid" idea people keep thinking about. And the problem with that is that such a device wouldn't replace the Wii U. I can't see how it can both replace the Wii U and also not be competitive with the PS4. It just doesn't add up.

That's what I'm saying. Nintendo can't do nothing and just expect third party support, ala the Wii U launch. They need to build the install base with a lot of big games the first two years, then third parties will seek to fulfill the demands of that population, depending on its size and engagement.

And @skywake, is it that you can't read or that you simply choose not to?