I don't think it'll be a commercial failure at all. The critics will sound disappointed and the fanboys will start a #CutForMario campaign, but it definitely will sell.
Look at Galaxy 2, then NSMBU. If we can move into handheld titles, include both of those. Not failures at all commercially, but fanbase complaints galore. Hell, sideseries look at Double Dash (or your favorite) then look at MK7. Still successful.