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Topic: Predicting the future of the Big 3

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micronean

21. Posted:

rallydefault wrote:

I agree with someone else about Microsoft exiting the console realm - NOTE: I'm not saying Microsoft the company will fold. It's hard for some to really picture the long-term, but Microsoft's only been in the console arena for 12 years. They entered the fray in 2001, had success in North America, and released the smash hit that is the 360 in 2005. And now we're here. For those of us who weren't born in the '90s, Microsoft has always been the new kid on the block when it comes to consoles. I think if the Xbone trend pans out for the new few years ("good" sales but not as smashing as the 360) we may see Microsoft retreat or "meld" fully back into the PC space. The buzz surrounding their new console is still overly negative, though excellent games can change things around.

Much would depend on how much the xbox1 will fail--and I think it will, because historically the 3rd console has been the stinker. It sure would give them a pretext to go more "living room/family room PC" for their 4th console.

micronean

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skywake

22. Posted:

for all three.... convergence....

Nintendo has already made a "portable/TV console hybrid", it's called the Wii U. So they're already doing the thing the OP claimed was the future. I don't think the idea of gimping home console power for portability or streaming handheld level visuals to the TV is a good idea. What is a good idea is streaming content wirelessly to a second screen.

Sony is also doing that. Just an hour or so ago they unveiled this:

Which is kinda a weird non-portable version of what the Wii U is doing in some respects. I wouldn't be surprised if eventually they just start building something like that into their TVs. Combine it with cloud-streaming for games and gradual improvements in internet infrastructure over time. Could end up being the way everything goes.

Microsoft are going on a slightly different tangent. They want to bring back the idea of the Home Theatre PC through their console business. That's what they've always done with the XBox. Nothing that much exciting happening with Microsoft in this space yet.....

Edited on by skywake

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Neoproteus

23. Posted:

Nintendo:
A portable system with slightly more power than the Wii U. It can hook up to your TV, and also has the same wireless controller inputs as the Wii U. Depending on which peripherals from older systems it's hooked up to (Wii Remote, Gamepad), it is fully backwards compatible with every piece of first party Nintendo software ever made, for any console or portable through virtual console. It will be able to use the Wii U gamepad, as well as a smaller revision of the same controller, to play local multiplayer on the go from the same console. This will be marketed as the be-all-end-all of Nintendo consoles.

Later, they will release the Nintendo VR. It will use an HMD as it's primary display device, much like the Oculus Rift, and the main controller will be the VRemotes, a pair of controllers using similar technology to the Wii Remote+, but both controllers are identical, featuring four face buttons, two shoulder buttons and an analog stick on each. If the glasses problem is not resolved by then with the Rift, and you have poor vision, you will have the option of either wearing your usual contact lenses, or you can purchase custom lenses for the HMD based on your prescription.

Microsoft:
They will drop out of the console race. I don't see the Xbox One being successful at all, but neither do I see Microsoft going bankrupt, so they will determine that video game hardware is no longer profitable and focus on PCs. That said, 343 studios will keep making Halo games, but make them exclusive to the newest Windows OS. The first PC installment will come with options to play using the Razer Hydra and Oculus RIft, and other devices like them, and also filter out players using different controllers, much the same way they will probably segregate mouse and keyboard users from gamepad users. By the second PC game, they will make the motion controllers and HMD maditory, following market trends by competitors. Various companies will release hardware with a label pioneered by Microsoft, much like 'ultrabook', which by definition will be a PC with certain minimum specs expected to play the latest PC games. They will also revamp the Windows Live games store, and push hard for exclusives to be released on that. The new 'console' will also have portable, laptop-like versions with detachable keyboards and kickstands for tablet-like play, which will be compatible with a new, microsoft-made PC controller.

Sony:
They will follow Nintendo's lead and make a version of the PS4 that is portable. It will be followed by the ability to play PSP and Vita games on the PS4. There will then be a version of the PS4 that is built into a television, rather than being sold as a separate device. They may never make a PS5, mainly because there is no need. As long as they release new ways to play on the PS4, like new peripherals, and release quality exclusive content for those, then a new console would be pointless, and a waste of money when they sell it for less than it's manufacturing costs. One of the new peripherals released sometime in the next few years will be an HMD VR device much like the Oculus Rift, and a new revision of the Move that will have an analog stick on each hand.

Valve:
They will enter the console race with the Steam Box, a new distinction for PCs with a certain form factor and a minimum specs. It will be the size of a rubiks cube. The primary controller will be much like an Xbox controller, but with a trackball in place of the right analog stick and a full texting-style keyboard underneath the start button. It will be around $1,000, and so achieve limited success, but Valve will continue to support it with games released on it first for a time, followed their usual PC releases later on Steam. All new Valve games will support both the Rift and Hydra, but it will be up to Indies to develop games around those devices.

Neoproteus

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Gregor

24. Posted:

I hope that Microsoft drops out of video games. They are dead and useless to me. They just keep butting heads with Sony and they are the one getting the headaches. They should step OUT.

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kkslider5552000

25. Posted:

Gregor wrote:

I hope that Microsoft drops out of video games. They are dead and useless to me. They just keep butting heads with Sony and they are the one getting the headaches. They should step OUT.

agreed. They are now almost completely redundant with the PS4 around, it's kinda pathetic.

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CM30

26. Posted:

My predictions:

Nintendo: They'll keep making consoles (both home console and handheld) as long as the company can stay in business. This is because they seem very hesitant to ever make games for other people's hardware, and because they've got enough money to last a few console failures before they get forced out of business. Might win or come second in the Wii U/eighth generation (for home consoles).

Microsoft: Will probably drop out the games market fairly soon. Games aren't their major money maker, and the Xbox brand is arguably a bit of a financial dead weight that some future CEO could well easily discontinue. Don't have high hopes for their chances in the next generation, especially given how completely out of touch they initially were with the Xbox One and how even now they seem to not really understand how 'games' work.

Sony: Will keep making games consoles, likely get a lot more third party support if Microsoft quits. Could win the upcoming generation of systems if they play their cards right. May well stop trying to make handheld systems after the Vita.

All three: Won't do anywhere near as well this generation, unless a miracle occurs. I heavily suspect that the Wii U's sales 'success' might be indicative of how well the PS4 and Xbox One will do once the initial hype wears off. Or more accurately, after the hipsters and tech geeks have all bought one.

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Gregor

27. Posted:

kkslider5552000 wrote:

Gregor wrote:

I hope that Microsoft drops out of video games. They are dead and useless to me. They just keep butting heads with Sony and they are the one getting the headaches. They should step OUT.

agreed. They are now almost completely redundant with the PS4 around, it's kinda pathetic.

Not to mention they are just disgusting corporate barstewards. At least Sony has humanity. Albeit kinda arrogant humanity.

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WingedSnagret

28. Posted:

CM30 wrote:

All three: Won't do anywhere near as well this generation, unless a miracle occurs. I heavily suspect that the Wii U's sales 'success' might be indicative of how well the PS4 and Xbox One will do once the initial hype wears off. Or more accurately, after the hipsters and tech geeks have all bought one.

This. The bad economy, coupled with the fact that games are just as if not more expensive then last gen all point the very real possibility that none of the three consoles will do exceptionally well, at least not by the sales set by their predecessors.

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rallydefault

29. Posted:

@Sony_70

I guess we'll have to disagree on this one, as well (we do that a lot lol). Most gamers I talk to in-person and on the 'net still aren't having any of Microsoft's "oh nevermind j/k" backtracking. Yea, it's nice they "listened" to consumers (more like they listened to their investors lol) and reversed some of their policies, but it's like forgiving the person who nearly stabbed you in the back while they are still holding the knife. I don't understand why people are so afraid to get away from Microsoft. I've been planning my switch to Linux for a few months now, and Steam is making that process so much easier. Once I have a few more of my most-used programs either confirmed or a workaround available, I'm ditching Windows (and Microsoft) for good, both console and PC.

rallydefault

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Blast

30. Posted:

Sony: I really hope the PS4 turns out to be a huge success for Sony because Sony has obviously poured alotta investment into this console...and if it fails or even struggle for a while... Sony is gonna lose soooo much freaking money. So Sony gotta make sure the PS4 makes profit consistently I'll get a PS4 when Kingdom Hearts 3 comes out.
Microsoft: I don't plan on getting a Xbox One at all.... but even I can see that the Xbox One is gonna get bought by alotta Microsoft customers and by people who love the 360 so much and want more Microsoft products in their home. Microsoft will make money off of the Xbox One. Microsoft will prolly scratch their chin and release a Microsoft handheld dedicated to Microsoft IPs and various 3rd party support.

And then there's Nintendo.
I'm pretty sure that Nintendo is gonna lean on the 3DS for a good while. After the 3DS gets off the handheld throne, Nintendo will prolly release a very powerful handheld that will blow alotta minds. When the Wii U gets done, Nintendo will prolly find a innovative way for a new console (like they usualy do) and make it. Their next console will definetly have more power. BUT NOT TOO MUCH POWER. Nintendo still doesn't care that much for what Sony/Microsoft does.

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Sleepingmudkip

31. Posted:

Sony:remain on top
Microsoft:could care less
Nintendo:fires Iwata and makes a better console

Just saying this is what i think

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shingi_70

32. Posted:

Gregor wrote:

kkslider5552000 wrote:

Gregor wrote:

I hope that Microsoft drops out of video games. They are dead and useless to me. They just keep butting heads with Sony and they are the one getting the headaches. They should step OUT.

agreed. They are now almost completely redundant with the PS4 around, it's kinda pathetic.

Not to mention they are just disgusting corporate barstewards. At least Sony has humanity. Albeit kinda arrogant humanity.

Isn't that how we gt the original PS3 in the first place. Plus if Microsoft drops out, apple will come in dominate and y'all be looking stupid as hell.

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kkslider5552000

33. Posted:

Apple seems cool doing their own thing and we have Steambox coming to add more new consoles, so I have my doubts on that either way.

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skywake

34. Posted:

I don't think the predictions people are making of portables you plug into your TV will be as big as some think. The VitaTV is a neat idea but I still think it's a niche product. Streaming content across an ad-hoc wireless connection, your home network and even across the internet... that's the larger trend here. Sony in particular wants to head towards maybe eventually building a "playstation" in their TVs

To the people who want Microsoft to fail, I do think there's a fraction of merit to your prediction. However I don't think that will be a good thing for gaming in general. A duopoly between Nintendo and Sony or Sony and Microsoft is not a good thing for innovation in the market. Part of the reason why Nintendo's handhelds have improved recently to the extent they have is because of competition from phones, tablets and Sony. If Sony and Microsoft hadn't pushed Nintendo through the N64 and GC eras we wouldn't have had Nintendo betting on crazy ideas like the Wii and Wii U. Competition helps all of this, gives us more choice, I don't think MS dropping out of the race will help anyone.

WingedFish wrote:

This. The bad economy, coupled with the fact that games are just as if not more expensive then last gen all point the very real possibility that none of the three consoles will do exceptionally well, at least not by the sales set by their predecessors.

I don't agree with this point about the economy although admittedly I am in the Australia bubble. When you look at the numbers less than half of the sales of the PS3/360 were before the GFC hit. This generation has had the most sales of any console generation despite the fact that there was a global recession in the middle of it. So I wouldn't go predicting a drop in console sales when the previous generation was hit with the worst of it and still did reasonably well.

Edited on by skywake

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OptometristLime

35. Posted:

@neoproteus

I'm no genius but with a "console the size of a Rubic's cube," well, that sounds an awful lot like Ouya.
Though I haven't paid attention to the benchmarks on that console, it's obviously not designed for power.

Steam presents itself as an accessible platform: buy a game and the Steam experience comes with.
There is no way they will charge a grand, it's against their paradigm.
And only sci fi tech is likely to fit in a Rubik's cube.

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CM30

36. Posted:

Ah the Ouya... I have to say I don't see much coming out of that thing in the future.

It's a nice idea (the whole 'low barriers to entry console' concept), but the only real games it has at the moment are the odd port, very obscure indie games and emulators. Nothing to appeal to the 'mainstream' crowd.

As a result, I suspect that unless it gets better (and gets a breakout hit of some kind), the system will pretty much stay as the 'hacker, indie and hipster' system.

The other 'microconsoles' might not do much better.

Also, I have this feeling the recent NSA spying stuff might really bite Microsoft in the backside when they release the Xbox One. I mean, they're a company named as basically cooperating with this crap to begin with, and now they're releasing a system heavily based on internet functionality with a built in camera? Yeah, I see nothing suspicious about that at all... And I suspect other people might be a bit worried about the system for that reason as well.

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Gregor

37. Posted:

Sleepingmudkip wrote:

Sony:remain on top
Microsoft:could care less
Nintendo:fires Iwata and makes a better console

Just saying this is what i think

You do not fire Iwata Iwata fires you.

It's a fez. I wear a fez now. Fezes are cool, just like bowties.

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Blast

38. Posted:

WingedFish wrote:

CM30 wrote:

All three: Won't do anywhere near as well this generation, unless a miracle occurs. I heavily suspect that the Wii U's sales 'success' might be indicative of how well the PS4 and Xbox One will do once the initial hype wears off. Or more accurately, after the hipsters and tech geeks have all bought one.

This. The bad economy, coupled with the fact that games are just as if not more expensive then last gen all point the very real possibility that none of the three consoles will do exceptionally well, at least not by the sales set by their predecessors.

Agreed fully!!!!!!!!!!!

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CM30

39. Posted:

Gregor wrote:

Sleepingmudkip wrote:

Sony:remain on top
Microsoft:could care less
Nintendo:fires Iwata and makes a better console

Just saying this is what i think

You do not fire Iwata Iwata fires you.

Well to be honest, I don't fancy his chances of staying if the Wii U doesn't take off. I mean, I hope Mario 3D World and Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze are enough to save the system and get it huge sales, since otherwise those shareholders/investers could easily call for his removal.

On the bright side, they could always play this on his last Nintendo Direct, just to finish it off nicely:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhC0Cra1k-s

Maybe then end it with Iwata getting in a taxi and it driving off.

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Guitardude7

40. Posted:

Sony: Continues to create quality games and hardware, PS4 will most likely win 8th gen.

Nintendo: Continues to do its own thing, may or may not win the 8th gen console war. Wii U being successful once software library builds up and price drop goes into effect. Bundles galore. 3DS continues to dominate the handheld market.

Microsoft: Xbox One does fine in the market but is behind Wii U and PS4 due to lack of original IPs and over priced hardware

Thats my opinion. The Big 3 wont see the same sales numbers they did last gen due to a poor economy but they'll still do fine.

Guitardude7

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