Here's my sort-of-realistic prediction...

BUILT INTO HARDWARE

• Zelda HD demo
• Mii Arena (contains both Chase Mii and Battle Mii)
• Shield Pose
• Duck Hunt Wii U
• Wii U Sports
• Wii U Play (I'm predicting the entire "Wii" series will be remade for Wii U, and well later see games like Wii U Fit and Wii U Party on both retail and on the Wii U shop)

RETAIL

• New Super Mario Bros. Mii (could possibly even be built into hardware)
• Lego City Stories
• F-Zero HD
• Rayman Legends
• Dragon Quest X
• Darksiders II
• Batman: Arkham City
• Call of Duty: Black Ops 2
• Raving Rabbids
• Aliens: Colonial Marines
• Scribblenauts Universe
• Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Online
• WarioWare U
• Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed
• Ninja Gaiden 3
• Tekken
• Pikmin 3

WII U SHOP

• Sonic 4: Episode II
• Runner 2
• 1001 Spikes
• Marvel Pinball
• Saber Rider and the Star Sheriffs
• Toki Tori 2
• Skullgirls
• Pac-Man Clash Pack (contains both Pac-Man VS and Pac-Man Battle Royale)

EDIT: Added 4 more games to retail section
EDIT 2: Added Duck Hunt Wii U

my second wii U launch line-up

Mario
Pikmin

along with:

• Bayonetta 2 - sega
• Dead or Alive 5 - team ninja
• Sonic and all-stars Racing 2 - sega
• new version of mach rider - Nintendo
• Rayman legends 3 - Ubisoft
• xenoblade chronicles 2- monolith soft/nintendo
• Project H.A.M.M.E.R - the cancelled wii game

Okay here is a list of wishes I know only a few come true, but here it is anyway:

A new 3D free-roaming Mario with a innovative concept

A 3D free-roaming Kirby

A 3D free-roaming Wario-land, with both Wario and Waluigi, on kitchen-island, with transformations, and Captain syrup as the main-villain!

A 3D free-roaming Donkey Kong game, made right by Retro studios (because I am not a big fan of DK 64)

I also would love a sequel to DKC Returns. Retro did a great job on Returns. In the sequel they could bring the Kremlins back, include more animal buddies, and bring back the underwater levels (with enguarde). I would love it! I am sure soon or late there will be a sequel!

A 3D free-roaming, Zelda-like, Kid Icarus, also made by Retro

Maybe a 3D free-roaming Yoshi's island

Bring Rareware back, let them release the titles we missed (such as Kameo, Nuts and bolt, Grabbed by the ghoulies) as retail or as downloads. Then make a new Banjo Kazooie, like the traditional games! But I fear all the talent has been sucked away from Rareware!

If Rareware doesn't come back, then release Nuts and bolts on the 3DS (that's still possible, right?).

Next Zelda made by Retro studios or Nintendo's Tokyo game studio (the makers of the Mario galaxy games).

A good new Starfox game (Rumor has it that Retro is working on it).

A good new F-zero game, made again by Sega Amusement vision or Retro.

A totally new, cool franchise from Nintendo. Hopefully a 3D free-roaming platformer or adventure!

That's all!

PS: I don't need those games all at launch! If they appear further down the line, that's okay!!

I've already said an F-Zero, Metroid, or Star Fox game in HD would be great, but I'm going to further elaborate on that now.

If this happened, Nintendo could have something for everyone.

New Super Mario Bros. Mii - To attract everyone; both the hardcore Mario fans, and the casual audience.
Pikmin 3 - To give fan service to the smaller, niche audience Pikmin has.
F-Zero, Metroid, or Star Fox - To show off the Wii U's HD power and to attract the hardcore audience.

Star Fox would be ideal, since I would be ok with a short game if it's even 1/5 as replayable as 64.

Only read about half of the thread but it seems to me like some people are being a tad overly optimistic about the launch lineup. I mean, I'm sure it will be good (I hope) but quite a few suggestions seemed unrealistic... but then again this is people's "perfect" launch lineups.

Me? I only need 2 or 3 titles that I'd consider must haves, I won't be getting a lot at launch, I can't afford that. NSMB seems to be a given (though I'm a tad disappointed that Mario's first foray into HD has 2D gameplay). I realllly hope Pikmin 3 is launch, I've been waiting forever for this title, I'm such a huge Pikmin fan, and the game could truly shine with HD, the environments could look incredible.

Honestly, I would like at least one more great first party title, though. I'd love an HD Zelda, but that seems a lot to ask for so soon. I'd also like an HD Metroid but I just have a feeling Nintendo isn't paying much attention to that series right now. Perhaps Star Fox, I do like the series (though it's not my favorite) and was disappointed not to see a Wii title that used the remote and nunchuk to steer with motion control, that could've worked well (hold them like a plane's steering handles or whatever they're called on a plane). Honestly, I'm hoping Nintendo reveals a new IP for launch, something appealing to hardcore gamers. Like they did with Pikmin on the GameCube (okay, that was shortly after launch), I want some Miyamoto magic there. My favorite franchises all seem too unlikely right now (Smash Bros, Metroid, Zelda, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, to name a few).

@SuperSherbet
I think that you're right about Battle Mii, Chase Mii and Shield Pose and also Wii U Sports, Wii U Play, Wii U Party and WarioWare U.... but I think they'll all be in one or two games. I think they could easily get a Wii Play out of some of the ideas there including Battle Mii and Chase Mii but also stuff like the Othello game they showed in the trailer. I think there could be a good Wario Ware game with ideas like Shield Pose and stuff like that throwing star game in the trailer. They could polish up some old Wii Sports games including that baseball and golf thing they showed in the trailer and make a new Wii Sports. Basically I think that all of that stuffs in the trailer is a huge hint of what's to come.

There's a lot of stuff there that they've teased at already..... but I don't think they'll all be individual games. Two or three launch compilations and maybe some bundled software. That Zelda demo? I wouldn't get my hopes up

My perfect line up ( u guys may not like this) for the Wii U:
Metroid
Zelda
Mario
Starfox
Pikmin
COD Black Ops 2
Super Smash Bros Universe
and Porn.

i know my list is unrealistic but i was thinking more on the lines of 'if you could have any games on the wii U, no matter how unlikely they will make it on the wii U, what would they be?' and so i went with bayonetta, DOA 5, which will probably never see the light of day.

but hey, i can still dream about it

I want Bioshock Infinite.

Super Smash Bros.

Bioshock Infinite was just announced to be delayed until 2013

I know. That was like one of the 2 or 3 360 games I was planning on getting this year.

Hopefully there's a chance for a Wii U version then?

I'd totaly be down BioShock Infinite Plus Wii Pointer controls.

My predictions

1 game for the hardcore HD fans (eg metroid)
1 game for the Nitendo fans (eg mario)
1 game for the casuals (eg Wii sports)

AND

Creative software, ie, 1 drawing app, 1 photo app, 1 video editing app, 1 music app ... I really think there is great potential on those, even DSi have some very cool apps (rythmik, art academy, inchworm animation...) imagine it with the HD power and tablet size of wii u!!!!!!!!

STARFOX HD (DX11 due to the news from wii u blog that Unreal 4 engine will work on Wii u tech as Ninty has improved wii u to work Unreal 4,i believe we could see 2-4 GB ram?)
Mariokart wii u.
Mario Galaxy 3/with level design editor like minecraft
New ip from mario creator in colaboration with Epic(would be bizzare and cool)
Skyrim mmo
Eve online/Dust 517

Any Ace Combat on Wii U is an instant buy, pricing be damned. Just model it after Ace Combat 5 / Assault Horizon Legacy, and the fans will come in droves.

Was watching the Australian TV show Good Game SP (oh yes, I'm 25 and I watch the kid's version of the show) and they were talking about Sonic games. Both the ones they mentioned were suspiciously not launching on the Wii. Most notably Sonic 4 ep 2.

Curious don't you think?

"I want Bioshock Infinite"

Bioshock infinite is one of the few Fps I would appreciate on Wii u!

It's good that it's delayed untill 2013, because that means more chance that it also comes to Wii u!!