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Topic: Pachter: "I think Nintendo becomes completely irrelevant."

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WaLzgi

61. Posted:

HarmoKnight wrote:

I predict waltz thinks people like patcher are right? :P

He doesn't think Pachter is necessarily right, but how fans continue to say he's wrong despite not actually knowing if his predictions will ever come true or not. A rampant problem on the internet is how users don't fully read posts and only complain about tidbits.

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rayword45

62. Posted:

I predict Tad Ghostal will come down from Ghost Planet to kick Pachter in the throat before interviewing him on a new episode of Space Ghost Coast to Coast, all while the Nintendo GameCube becomes a runaway success.

And if that's not wrong, I don't know what wrong is.

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TysonOfTime

63. Posted:

LZBirdboi wrote:

problem on the internet is how users don't fully read posts and only complain about tidbits.

This statement is bad, you are a bad person, and you need to feel bad about it.

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moomoo

64. Posted:

LZBirdboi wrote:

HarmoKnight wrote:

I predict waltz thinks people like patcher are right? :P

He doesn't think Pachter is necessarily right, but how fans continue to say he's wrong despite not actually knowing if his predictions will ever come true or not. A rampant problem on the internet is how users don't fully read posts and only complain about tidbits.

Yeah, I concur with that.
Also, it's not like he gets everything wrong, either. In terms of sales numbers, he generally gets pretty close to what they do, which is what he is supposed to do. Yeah, there are exceptions, the most notable one being Borderlands. He was way off on that one.

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the_shpydar

65. Posted:

Re: The nature of predictions.
Schrödinger's cat.
That is all.

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moomoo

66. Posted:

the_shpydar wrote:

Re: The nature of predictions.
Schrödinger's cat.
That is all.

LOL. I understood that one. Yay for Zero Escape teaching me theories.

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Bankai

67. Posted:

skywake wrote:

LZBirdboi wrote:

You can't really call predictions wrong because you don't truly know if they will happen or not.

No but they can certainly be wrong. It's like those crazies predicting that the world will end on Dec 21st because of some planet that NASA is keeping secret for whatever reason is going to crash into Earth. You can't prove they're wrong till after the day but you can say it's a load of bull and list the reasons why you think that.

If Pachter wants to make the prediction that Nintendo will fail with the Wii U because people don't want to play CoD on it then fine. The stats however suggest that a fair chunk of Wii U owners do want to play it though. The stats suggest that people buying the Wii are getting 2.85 games so therefore the average Wii U user got something other than NintendoLand and New SMB U. This isn't proof he's wrong in the long term... but it isn't what you'd expect of a console that's doomed and will never attract a "core audience".

The problem is that you're assuming that being proven right in the future is Pachter's job.

It's not.

Pachter's job is to explain to his clients what is likely to happen, and therefore what they should do with their investments. He bases this on data that none of us have access to, coupled with readily observable trends in the market.

Sometimes (or often, depending on the market) what is likely to happen doesn't happen. That in no way devalues the information that Pachter had previously supplied to his clients.

tl;dr: An analyst's job is not to be right. It's to do the incredibly expensive research that the clients can't afford to do for themselves and give an idea of whether they should get their money the hell out of the market or not.

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Bankai

68. Posted:

HarmoKnight wrote:

I predict waltz thinks people like patcher are right? :P

Don't ever become an analyst.

I never once said that I think Pachter is always right. I don't expect analysts to be right, because I know they're far more valuable when you read between the lines.

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WaLzgi

69. Posted:

the_shpydar wrote:

Re: The nature of predictions.
Schrödinger's cat.
That is all.

Thank you for killing my brain. I can't believe there's an equation for this. Wait, does Pachter have an equation for his stuff? :)

Also, Untitled

Edited on by WaLzgi

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Hokori

70. Posted:

From now on I'm going to say "I predict" with all my comments that involve Waltz

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V8_Ninja

71. Posted:

Oh, hey! Michael Pachter is making more predictions! How horribly will they backfire this time? I'm betting a solid $100!

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WaLzgi

72. Posted:

V8_Ninja wrote:

Oh, hey! Michael Pachter is making more predictions! How horribly will they backfire this time? I'm betting a solid $100!

Backfire? See comments above :P

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The_Fox

73. Posted:

Now look. Patcher has gone and made Mario cry. I hope he's proud of himself.

Untitled

Edited on by The_Fox

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ShadJV

74. Posted:

WhiteKnight wrote:

skywake wrote:

LZBirdboi wrote:

You can't really call predictions wrong because you don't truly know if they will happen or not.

No but they can certainly be wrong. It's like those crazies predicting that the world will end on Dec 21st because of some planet that NASA is keeping secret for whatever reason is going to crash into Earth. You can't prove they're wrong till after the day but you can say it's a load of bull and list the reasons why you think that.

If Pachter wants to make the prediction that Nintendo will fail with the Wii U because people don't want to play CoD on it then fine. The stats however suggest that a fair chunk of Wii U owners do want to play it though. The stats suggest that people buying the Wii are getting 2.85 games so therefore the average Wii U user got something other than NintendoLand and New SMB U. This isn't proof he's wrong in the long term... but it isn't what you'd expect of a console that's doomed and will never attract a "core audience".

The problem is that you're assuming that being proven right in the future is Pachter's job.

It's not.

Pachter's job is to explain to his clients what is likely to happen, and therefore what they should do with their investments. He bases this on data that none of us have access to, coupled with readily observable trends in the market.

Sometimes (or often, depending on the market) what is likely to happen doesn't happen. That in no way devalues the information that Pachter had previously supplied to his clients.

tl;dr: An analyst's job is not to be right. It's to do the incredibly expensive research that the clients can't afford to do for themselves and give an idea of whether they should get their money the hell out of the market or not.

I think anyone entering this discussion on a serious note should read that last sentence.

If they're posting to make fun of him, I think that's excusable because he has no place speaking to the public like this especially with how he ends up wording things. But if they are being serious, that's a very key point, and why I admitted what I have wrong with him is nothing to do with how good he is at his job because he sees information I can't see, I can't know how good he is at his job, I just can know how poor he is at communication with the public. He could be the best analyst in the world for all I know, and it's for that very reason. His job ISN'T to be right and so to his clients, whether he's been right in the past is almost entirely irrelevant (though I do think if he's never been right that'd be cause for alarm but I am certain he's steered his clients right at least sometimes or he wouldn't still have a job). Like you said (in different wording), he isn't being paid to tell his clients what will happen, he is being paid to tell them what's LIKELY to happen.

The world isn't based off of cold statistics and these "predictions" are just irrelevant outside of his work. Outside of his work, there are designers like Miyamoto who have an intuition for the industry and enough money to take a few risks. Inside of his work, things like intuition and risks hold no value and in fact may be considered negative things. It all comes down to he simply shouldn't be communicating these "predictions" to the public, especially the way he words it.

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Odnetnin

75. Posted:

The_Fox wrote:

Now look. Patcher has gone and made Mario cry. I hope he's proud of himself.

Untitled

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Bankai

76. Posted:

ShadJV wrote:

WhiteKnight wrote:

skywake wrote:

LZBirdboi wrote:

You can't really call predictions wrong because you don't truly know if they will happen or not.

No but they can certainly be wrong. It's like those crazies predicting that the world will end on Dec 21st because of some planet that NASA is keeping secret for whatever reason is going to crash into Earth. You can't prove they're wrong till after the day but you can say it's a load of bull and list the reasons why you think that.

If Pachter wants to make the prediction that Nintendo will fail with the Wii U because people don't want to play CoD on it then fine. The stats however suggest that a fair chunk of Wii U owners do want to play it though. The stats suggest that people buying the Wii are getting 2.85 games so therefore the average Wii U user got something other than NintendoLand and New SMB U. This isn't proof he's wrong in the long term... but it isn't what you'd expect of a console that's doomed and will never attract a "core audience".

The problem is that you're assuming that being proven right in the future is Pachter's job.

It's not.

Pachter's job is to explain to his clients what is likely to happen, and therefore what they should do with their investments. He bases this on data that none of us have access to, coupled with readily observable trends in the market.

Sometimes (or often, depending on the market) what is likely to happen doesn't happen. That in no way devalues the information that Pachter had previously supplied to his clients.

tl;dr: An analyst's job is not to be right. It's to do the incredibly expensive research that the clients can't afford to do for themselves and give an idea of whether they should get their money the hell out of the market or not.

I think anyone entering this discussion on a serious note should read that last sentence.

If they're posting to make fun of him, I think that's excusable because he has no place speaking to the public like this especially with how he ends up wording things. But if they are being serious, that's a very key point, and why I admitted what I have wrong with him is nothing to do with how good he is at his job because he sees information I can't see, I can't know how good he is at his job, I just can know how poor he is at communication with the public. He could be the best analyst in the world for all I know, and it's for that very reason. His job ISN'T to be right and so to his clients, whether he's been right in the past is almost entirely irrelevant (though I do think if he's never been right that'd be cause for alarm but I am certain he's steered his clients right at least sometimes or he wouldn't still have a job). Like you said (in different wording), he isn't being paid to tell his clients what will happen, he is being paid to tell them what's LIKELY to happen.

The world isn't based off of cold statistics and these "predictions" are just irrelevant outside of his work. Outside of his work, there are designers like Miyamoto who have an intuition for the industry and enough money to take a few risks. Inside of his work, things like intuition and risks hold no value and in fact may be considered negative things. It all comes down to he simply shouldn't be communicating these "predictions" to the public, especially the way he words it.

I think it's also worth pointing out that Pachter made these comments at an industry conference, and the reporting of what he said by Gamesindustry was not great.

So, really, Pachter wasn't out there trying to explain his point of view to gamers. These were words for the industry.

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SCAR392

77. Posted:

The_Fox wrote:

Now look. Patcher has gone and made Mario cry. I hope he's proud of himself.

Untitled

Where is this picture from? Is it legit? Who's Pachter? Haha, just kidding... Where does this guy work BTW?

$¢@®³’²

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skywake

78. Posted:

@WhiteKnight
The problem isn't that I don't understand what an Analyst is supposed to do because I do. I get what you're saying but it doesn't do anything to change my point. I don't disagree that Nintendo is a more risky company than Microsoft or Sony because it is. That doesn't mean I think these statements are beyond criticism.

Yes, I'm probably clouded by my fanboy glasses. Yes, Patcher definitely has more experience and more data at his disposal. Do I think his argument is reasonable though? Not at all. I think it would be a bad move on the part of developers to drop support for big titles from the HD consoles as soon as the PS4/720 launch. I think that there are just as many if not more developers looking to reign in development budgets are there are devs wanting to stretch their legs. I also think that Nintendo has a knack for getting consoles into peoples home but in the past has had trouble with third party support.

Ontop of that online has been brought to a level beyond the 360/PS3 in all the ways that matter. There will be a bigger community for the Wii U than the "next" consoles by the time they launch so his "you need a community to play CoD" comment works in the Wii U's favour. So the only argument he has left is that the PS4/720 will be "better"..... very compelling argument....

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RancidVomit86

79. Posted:

Pachter: Nintendo becoming "completely irrelevant". In other news, Pachter ignites full wrath of Nintendo fanboys everywhere.

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Discostew

80. Posted:

Just a different train of thought, but with the common idea that most of whatever Pachter says, the opposite happens, you think Pachter knows this? What if Pachter speaks about Nintendo negatively to get them to realize they need to do more, so they do, and benefit from it?

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