If patcher was right, then I'd believe him

No. There is no "right and wrong" in market analysis. There is only risk and reward.

This is the point. Pachter should stop speaking to the games press, and get himself off Twitter. 99.99% of the people that either report on what he says, or read those reports, have NFI what he's really on about.

There's no right or wrong in life either

Except that's wrong.

The very universe itself has rules, and all rules have a right and a wrong, so there you go.

Exactly

His reasoning is a bit strange. He says that outside of early launch "nobody is going to support it" and his reasons are thus. The claim is that not every game will appear on the Wii U next year, which is probably fair enough. Then he claims that when the "next-gen" consoles come out (immediately calling the Wii U not next gen) they'll be better than the Wii U. Better in what way isn't specified but I'm assuming it's in visuals........ then he jumps to saying CoD on Wii U is amazing but games like that won't sell because there's no community on Nintendo's platforms.

I don't follow the logic. If visuals and community were the only things needed to attract developers the PC would "win" every generation hands down. If the ability to play CoD with your mates who own the same console is the reason for a platform's success then surely people would go for the 360/PS3 versions over the Wii U and then the Wii U version over 720/PS4. The need for community would be something that would cause slow adoption rates for new hardware across the board not just with Nintendo's hardware. The key difference is that the Wii U has Miiverse..... wouldn't that work in its favour?

Lastly there's no denying that Nintendo have been good at getting their consoles into living rooms. The battle cry of the PS3/360/PC gamer wailing on the Wii has always been "my Wii is gathering dust" or "I sold my Wii" not "I never got a Wii". I doubt people will stop buying Nintendo consoles for the Smash Bros, Mario Karts, Marios and Zeldas. So it'll sell millions regardless of how good the other systems are. There will certainly be some developers wanting to stretch their legs a bit after being held back by the HD gen for so long... but there are just as many wanting to reel in the budgets for games a bit.

My prediction is that most of the AAA titles will keep being sold on all platforms, 360/PS3/Wii U/PC/720/PS4, till near the end of 2014. That the 360/PS3 will fall back eventually as people start buying PS4/720 but the Wii U will be taken along for the ride. Reason? Developers want to sell as many games as possible and the Wii U fixes all of the problems developers had when they decided not to support the Wii.

Someday, we will all become completely irrelevant. What then?

Oh you can be wrong. I've heard an analyst claiming that the rapid adoption of mobile will make fixed broadband obsolete before the end of the decade. Don't ask an analyst to make predictions on tech.......

The man is just doing his job. He goes out, analyzes companies, and then says what he thinks will happen to said companies to help investors. It may cause people to dislike him, but he's just doing what people pay him to do. If he could make more money dancing in a banana costume outside of a random smoothie place, he would do it.

You can make incorrect predictions. This is very different from being wrong. It's impossible to be wrong about something that hasn't happened yet.

And for the record there are some markets where it does appear that mobile technology is outpacing and replacing fixed broadband. Places like Kenya, which never had great infrastructure in the past, but is rapidly westernising now, is largely ignoring old technologies in favour of more advanced ones.

I'm pretty sure you can call an incorrect prediction wrong.

Life example: I predict that out of the 4 choices on this question on this damned quiz, the answer is C
Nope, you wrong, it's none of the above fool.

Stats. Third party core Wii U game sales. Black Ops 2 on Wii U sold 90k in its first week, Assassin's Creed 3 on Wii U sold 58k in it's first week. Which is 19% and 12% of total Wii U owners at the end of the first week respectively. For the big first party games 79% for New SMB U and 74% for Nintendo Land. Software tie ratio for the Wii U right now is at 2.85 games per system. The Vita has a tie ratio of 2.11.....

I think it's safe to say Wii U third party titles are doing pretty well.

@WhiteKnight
They were talking about Australia and 4G vs Fibre specifically.....

You can't really call predictions wrong because you don't truly know if they will happen or not.

Keep in mind Nintendo has plummeted before and there's a chance it can happen again.

No but they can certainly be wrong. It's like those crazies predicting that the world will end on Dec 21st because of some planet that NASA is keeping secret for whatever reason is going to crash into Earth. You can't prove they're wrong till after the day but you can say it's a load of bull and list the reasons why you think that.

If Pachter wants to make the prediction that Nintendo will fail with the Wii U because people don't want to play CoD on it then fine. The stats however suggest that a fair chunk of Wii U owners do want to play it though. The stats suggest that people buying the Wii are getting 2.85 games so therefore the average Wii U user got something other than NintendoLand and New SMB U. This isn't proof he's wrong in the long term... but it isn't what you'd expect of a console that's doomed and will never attract a "core audience".

A prediction isn't wrong per say when it's predicted, but it can be wrong once it's been proven wrong

I see a rewording is in order then

You can't really call predictions wrong until they happen or not, but you can't call them "wrong" right now

I predict waltz thinks people like patcher are right?

Yes, that's right.

But then again, by that logic, any prediction without a specified time like this can't be called wrong. Come 10 ten years from now, if Nintendo is still relevant you can't say Patcher was wrong.