If you're saying the WIi U will follow the path of the Wii, you have to look at why the Wii was successful.
1. I don't think anyone can deny the fact that it sold a ton to "casual" gamers — and even non-gamers. Soccer moms that picked up a Wii to stay fit, maybe bought Mario Kart or NSMBWii for their kids, then never bought a game again. Nintendo is currently not appealing to this audience. They've got few casual titles lined up, and even if they would create them, the Wii U's appeal is less immediate than motion controls. Oprah isn't featuring this thing. They may feel they wasted money on the Wii based on how little they used it, so why would they buy the new one? Plus, they've all got their tablets and 5-minute-games. I'd ballpark this group to be 40-50 million Wii sales.
1B. (Small group I'd add to this: people who loved Nintendo when they were kids, are now too busy for games but may have picked one up for NSMBWii or something. Nintendo can appeal to these again, but I don't think it's a huge group.)
2. Second group is Nintendo fans. That's you, the person reading this. You've got a Wii U or are planning to buy one when good games start rolling out. There's about 30 million of us, it seems, based on N64 and Gamecube sales.
3. Third group's the hardcore gamer that may have picked up a Wii cause it was so cheap, and that Red Steel game looked pretty promising. You then sold your Wii, or you're one of those annoying people complaining about how it "collects dust", while not buying Little King's Story, Madworld, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Sin & Punishment, Red Steel 2, Xenoblade, No More Heroes, Last Story, Metroid Prime 3 or Okami. You probably didn't buy Super Mario Galaxy 2 because the highest-rated game of all time looks kiddy. Or you never bought a Wii at all because Nintendo is kiddy, and you never plan on buying a Nintendo console again. Nintendo has got some interesting games for these in store, most notably Bayonetta 2. But we want graphics, grrr. We want manly violence, and we want EA sports games. Not getting many of those.
Conclusion: I think Nintendo has to stunt big time to sell more than 40 million consoles. They're not appealing to the mainstream, and they're not appealing to the hardcore (sadly you'll need better graphics than that). Their main trump card is that they can sell the Wii U for way below the price of a PS4 and Xbox One, making it more likely for people to pick it up as secondary console. They still need to put some effort in to sell to Nintendo fans, but I have no doubt that they will.
As a Nintendo fan I care very little about all of this; I only care about fantastic first party games, hopefully some quirky 3rd party games (a la Wonderful 101), now with more indie goodness than ever.
Conclusion: I think Nintendo has to stunt big time to sell more than 40 million consoles. They're not appealing to the mainstream, and they're not appealing to the hardcore (sadly you'll need better graphics than that).
You also though need to look at families. I love Nintendo anyway but as the dad of two young boys I also really like the fact that I can play games with them. Okay, there will be some family-friendly stuff on Xbox One and PS4 as well but it will be probably be rubbish stuff targeted just at children. Nintendo provide genuinely fantastic games, many of which I am quite happy for my children to play or watch (and I'm fairly strict about what I will let them see).
@citizenerased
I think your "groupings" are confused and don't make much sense because the "real consumer" is much more complicated. Take me for example, I had a SNES as a kid and Gameboy but had little interest in Nintendo all the way 'till around mid 2005 when I saw the DSLite. Which I thought was fun because I saw Brain Training, Tetris and Mario Kart. When E3 2006 came around I watched all of the conferences on youtube and was blown away by the Wii. So I got one.
So who was I then? I was purely a PC gamer back then so was I a "hardcore gamer"? Was I a "casual" because Wii Sports was the thing that most interested me at launch? Was I one of those older Nintendo fans who wanted to revisit because of nostalgia? Was I a "Nintendo fan" because I had a DSLite by then?
Why does it have to be so black and white? Why is it so strange to think that a "hardcore gamer" will probably grab a Wii U when/if something like Smash Bros appears? People don't fit neatly into categories that you can assign sale numbers to....
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"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"
Conclusion: I think Nintendo has to stunt big time to sell more than 40 million consoles. They're not appealing to the mainstream, and they're not appealing to the hardcore (sadly you'll need better graphics than that).
You also though need to look at families. I love Nintendo anyway but as the dad of two young boys I also really like the fact that I can play games with them. Okay, there will be some family-friendly stuff on Xbox One and PS4 as well but it will be probably be rubbish stuff targeted just at children. Nintendo provide genuinely fantastic games, many of which I am quite happy for my children to play or watch (and I'm fairly strict about what I will let them see).
That's an interesting point. I was going to argue that families would've been a big part of the 20-30 million consoles that N64 and Gamecube sold, but it's true that gaming has gotten bigger since then, and Sony (and Microsoft) have stepped away further from a family-friendly image. You could argue that Microsoft is aiming at casuals, but they're not doing so with games (or pictures of families playing games together). I do believe that a large portion has moved on to tablet games, though. With moms going "why do you need that Wii U for, we've already got a Wii with no games, and an ipad!".
@skywake: Yes, I would probably count you to the group that re-discovered Nintendo (1B), whether it was through Wii or DS doesn't really matter. I understand your comment that groups aren't so neatly divided, but my main point was that the huge group that made the Wii sell so well don't know about Wii U. And when they find out about it, I'm seriously wondering if they'll care. That alone makes a huge difference in commercial success. I see everyone saying "when Nintendo releases the big guns, this will sell like Wii!", but Gamecube and N64 had big guns.
(And I think I did highlight the "hardcore" gamer who wants to play the new Smash — they'll be picking up a Wii U as secondary console.)
Are indie games indie if they're published by a AAA publisher?
Anywho Nintendo doesn't have to compete but i wish they would. Rather only have to buy one system instead of buying two.
Noooooo. Please no. Nintendo is great for one reason (Ok that's not entirely true but bare with me for a second). I don't know about you, but I myself am a huge Nintendo fan because of their ingenuity and creativity. While Sony and Microsoft battle it out by upgrading their new generation consoles with all these super processors and video cards, Nintendo focuses on what's important, the fun. There's a reason every single controller for every single Sony and/or XBox console since the beginning of time have looked the exact same. There's a reason that those two always seem to introduce the same god damn mechanics as their rival company. Competition. Microsoft comes up with Kinect, Sony comes up with the PlayStation Eye. And so on.
Personally, I would find it dreadful if Nintendo started focusing on the technical aspects of its consoles, thus attempting to join in on the bloody competitive nature of Sony and Microsoft and as to support the same games those consoles support, all while forgetting about what makes Nintendo, Nintendo. Look at the Wii's controller for instance. Who in hell could have seen that coming? And when we did see that controller, I bet most of us thought: "Ok what the hell". But then as we always do, being the Nintendo junkies that we are, we all headed out and bought it anyways. To our immense surprise, the Wiimote was actually extremely fun and unique. It offered amazing gameplay possibilities that the PlayStation and XBox lacked, allowing for the Nintendo exclusive game franchises to grow even bigger and expand unto even broader horizons. Granted the Wii U's Gamepad isn't nearly as creative, however I can still safely say, I think, that it works because it's Nintendo's "thing". It's the way they do things. We can all agree that Nintendo's consoles aren't exactly hip to all the developments in gadgets and equipment, and the games offered on those consoles aren't nearly as crisp and graphically spectacular as those on the PS and XBox, but we still buy them anyways.
This isn't to say however that the PlayStation and XBox are bad, no no no. Please don't get me wrong, I myself own an XBox 360, Playstation 2 and 3 and PSP. I love those consoles very much as they allow for a vastly different style of gameplay than Nintendo's console do. However, I would never in a million years wish for Nintendo to actually attempt to work towards catching up with Sony and Microsoft because to be honest, I fear that in its attempt to do so, Nintendo might lose the best gadget of all, the best piece of admittedly questionable hardware, their brains and subsequently, their deeply gaming and entertainment oriented hearts.
I mean think of it this way, 5 words: Mario. Pokemon. Zelda. Metroid. Pikmin.
@citizenerased
The N64 was basically in a two console race which it was late to and without optical media. In a console market of ~140Mill it sold 30Mill so it captured 21% of the market. It did that on the back of revolutionary versions of Mario and Zelda and four player multiplayer. The Gamecube was also late into what was basically a three way console race and sold 22Mill in a market of 209Mill so it only captured 10% of the market. It did this with nothing to differentiate itself in terms of hardware and nothing revolutionary in terms of software outside of Metroid.
Then obviously there's the Wii which has sold 100Mill in a market of 254Mill. 39% of the market. Again because they had something unique to offer in terms of hardware and they had interesting software. Significantly more to offer in terms of software than was seen on the Gamecube even outside of the "casual" games.
The Wii U will probably surely exist in a larger market than the Wii did and it offers something unique in terms of hardware. Right now though there's nothing much in terms of software to win people over. If it was to stay like this it would look a lot worse than the Gamecube did. So yeah, I don't see any reason why we should be penciling in 20-30Mill sales. I wouldn't bet on a repeat of the Wii but I wouldn't be shocked if in a three console race they get 20-30% of the market, "losing" but selling 65Mill units.
Conclusion: I think Nintendo has to stunt big time to sell more than 40 million consoles. They're not appealing to the mainstream, and they're not appealing to the hardcore (sadly you'll need better graphics than that).
You also though need to look at families. I love Nintendo anyway but as the dad of two young boys I also really like the fact that I can play games with them. Okay, there will be some family-friendly stuff on Xbox One and PS4 as well but it will be probably be rubbish stuff targeted just at children. Nintendo provide genuinely fantastic games, many of which I am quite happy for my children to play or watch (and I'm fairly strict about what I will let them see).
This. Now I don't have kids to consider when it comes to games but I am one of those guys who prefer to NOT have blood, gore and curse words in his games. I find that Nintendo caters to most of my gaming needs in this regard. I grew up with Nintendo as a kid (Game & Watch, Nes, etc) and I have to admit that if I had to pick only one console manufacturer, it would be Nintendo.
As someone mentioned earlier in this thread, Nintendo seems to be doing their own thing anyways, and usually it works out well for them.
@Skywake - Totally agree with you. Though I am a Nintendo fan, I am a far greater fan of gaming. During the Wii generation, that was my main gaming console (1st party games + VC) and I also own a Xbox360, mainly for Racing games (Forza, etc) and Xbox Live Arcade games. I am definitely picking up a Wii U when more games are released for it (hopefully Christmas 2013) and I am on the fence regarding the PS4 and Xbox One. At this point I am leaning towards the PS4. I usually ignore terms like "hardcore gamer", etc. It's funny how most so called "hardcore gamers" will have their butts kicked by those "kiddies" games on the NES.
At the end of the day each console has its place and it's up to the gamer to decide which one suits his/her gaming needs best.
@citizenerased
The N64 was basically in a two console race which it was late to and without optical media. In a console market of ~140Mill it sold 30Mill so it captured 21% of the market. It did that on the back of revolutionary versions of Mario and Zelda and four player multiplayer. The Gamecube was also late into what was basically a three way console race and sold 22Mill in a market of 209Mill so it only captured 10% of the market. It did this with nothing to differentiate itself in terms of hardware and nothing revolutionary in terms of software outside of Metroid.
I feel you're assuming customers are well-informed and make their choices based on what technology has the future and how revolutionising the software is. I feel N64's failure has very little to do with optical media, and much more with how "cool" the Playstation was perceived. Sony had a great marketing campaign and it's when "mature", violent titles really started to take off.
If revolutionising software sells consoles, Metroid Prime and Super Mario Galaxy would be the best selling games on their respective generations. Instead, people buy New Super Mario Bros Wii and the 100th iteration of Mario Kart.
The Xbox360 was first to launch; so was the Dreamcast. Gamecube launched along with the Xbox. Timing clearly isn't everything: we've seen the first launched console of a generation win, come in second and drop out of the race altogether.
Regardless, I do arrive at the same conclusion as you: Wii U doesn't have the immediate appeal that the Wii does. My figure's 40 million, yours is a bit higher.
The Wii sold because it was the only console targeted at families from day one, and it was always the cheapest. Add that to the fact that it came with Wii Sports and you've got huge sales incoming. I'd say hardcore Nintendo fans make up maybe 20% of the market, but the lineup of games like Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and Smash Bros certainly doesn't hurt.
Sony and Microsoft have both announced consoles with specs that hint at mandatory price tags above $350USD. Neither has announced ANY compelling software regardless of your demographic unless you're an EA Sports fan or a car nut. Nintendo is always going to have it's hardcore support because of the awesome games they release with every console. As soon as the PS4 and Xbox One officially announce their price points, the Wii U will announce a price drop that puts it at least $100 less than them. As they're announcing their launch lineup drought, Nintendo will announce Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Smash Bros, and Pikmin. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a version of the Wii U announced packaged with a Wii Sports 3 or a Wii Fit++ at some point either.
I still wouldn't say that the Wii U is going to be as successful as the Wii, and Nintendo certainly knows this, but since the Xbox One announcement I say say with 100% confidence that the Wii U will still whomp Sony and Microsoft's consoles.
The Wii sold because it was the only console targeted at families from day one, and it was always the cheapest. Add that to the fact that it came with Wii Sports and you've got huge sales incoming. I'd say hardcore Nintendo fans make up maybe 20% of the market, but the lineup of games like Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and Smash Bros certainly doesn't hurt.
Sony and Microsoft have both announced consoles with specs that hint at mandatory price tags above $350USD. Neither has announced ANY compelling software regardless of your demographic unless you're an EA Sports fan or a car nut. Nintendo is always going to have it's hardcore support because of the awesome games they release with every console. As soon as the PS4 and Xbox One officially announce their price points, the Wii U will announce a price drop that puts it at least $100 less than them. As they're announcing their launch lineup drought, Nintendo will announce Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Smash Bros, and Pikmin. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a version of the Wii U announced packaged with a Wii Sports 3 or a Wii Fit++ at some point either.
I still wouldn't say that the Wii U is going to be as successful as the Wii, and Nintendo certainly knows this, but since the Xbox One announcement I say say with 100% confidence that the Wii U will still whomp Sony and Microsoft's consoles.
Um, inFamous, Second Son, and perhaps Killzone: Shadow Fall. They have more to announce too. Have you seem what Sony has released in first-party this gen, why would they stop now?
@citizenerased
I'm going to make a few points here. The N64's loss against the Playstation was entirely to do with optical media. Where it did win over consumers was in its revolutionary software (Super Mario 64, Ocarina of Time) and it's hardware advantage of 4 player multi (Mario Kart, Goldeneye, Smash Bros). The Playstation ultimately won because of the advantage optical media gave to games. It's why games like Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid ended up moving the most units.
Metroid has never sold well compared to other titles. Nintendo will struggle to move lots of units if the best game they can deliver is Metroid especially when their competition just created Halo. In the Gamecube era their key first party games went in directions that people didn't understand at the time. I personally remember seeing Super Mario Sunshine in the shops and being almost confused about what it was. What I'm trying to say is that in that era Nintendo really didn't come up with any software that made people think "I'm getting the Gamecube because ___ is unique, looks interesting and I can't get it anywhere else".
The Wii had motion control games, that Wii Fit thing, awesome space Mario, two Zeldas and online Mario Kart. The Gamecube had weird versions of N64 games and Nintendo Halo but didn't play DVDs. Currently the Wii U has a weird tablet thing with another one of those Mario DS ports. That's how the average console buyer in the shops looks/looked at it.
As for when the console launch having little to do with it you're partially correct but I don't think it hurts. Though it is worth pointing out that Microsoft has been first and last to launch in the previous two generations and both times it ended up in basically the same spot. Equal second. The Dreamcast did launch first and you are right to point that out. My out here is that I implied that a well timed launch was a contributing factor to success and not the only reason. In the generations where Nintendo fell behind Sony had a very decent headstart. That combined with a less competitive product in general was what created the slump.
@Neoproteus
From what I've been told the XBox One RRP will be $399US and looking online the US RRP for the basic Wii U is $299US. So by your reasoning theres no need for a price drop?
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"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"
If revolutionising software sells consoles, Metroid Prime and Super Mario Galaxy would be the best selling games on their respective generations. Instead, people buy New Super Mario Bros Wii and the 100th iteration of Mario Kar
Don't forget that more often than not it was Wii Sports that sold the hardware: it was the ideal embodiment of motion gaming and a perfect pack-in title. The mass market perceived it as revolutionary and while execution was still embryonic due to technology constraints (for the most part), it worked remarkably well as a middleman between the idea of motion controls and a wide spectrum of target audience, including significant numbers of people that were previously disinterested in gaming altogether.
While Prime and Galaxy certainly boasted some important quantum leaps gameplay wise, it's also true that they could never be fully appreciated by casual players because of the lack of background for an informed assessment. 3D genres can also be too demanding for the average player, while simpler forms like 2D platforming and kart racing can easily produce instant gratification with almost anyone.
There's a complex interplay of elements in the sales of a game console that renders assessing the market especially challenging (hence big N's struggle), but the starting point should always be games with the power to persuade its target audience that the machine is worth investing on.
I still wouldn't say that the Wii U is going to be as successful as the Wii, and Nintendo certainly knows this, but since the Xbox One announcement I say say with 100% confidence that the Wii U will still whomp Sony and Microsoft's consoles.
I really wonder as to where that confidence is stemmed from, since neither Sony or MS have announced their full plans. It hasn't been 24 hours since X1's reveal and I'd also like to point out that the 3 months old PS4 reveal video on YT counts almost 30 million views while the U's e3 2011 announcement is locked at 9 million. Of course this is more of an amusing anecdotal fact than a legitimate metric to judge consumer interest, but if, when considering Wii U's status, you add 2 years of negative press, horrible marketing and strong consumer apathy..the picture isn't pretty.
Also according to your math, Nintendo fans are roughly 20 million, correct? I'd say that's a reasonable estimate, the game-centric and relatively recent GCN all but confirms it. PS3 and 360 are currently sitting around 77 million units each. Not really sure how this "whomping" is going to happen.
I do not think that the amount of Nintendo fans is still around 30 million. The Wii introduced plenty of casual PS2 owners to Nintendo. And many of them started to get invested in gaming.
Many could mention how Nintendo lost fans because they were casual with the Wii. That's could be true, but I doubt that number is more than the fans and publicity they gained from it.
Newscheck: I doubt the Halo dude-bros who owned an Xbox, not a gamecube, and said the Wii was Nintendo's step to betrayal and full silly, probably weren't hardcore fans, anyways.
Nintendo has to compete. That's what companies in the market do. Even if they don't think they should have to compete, they still realize they need a good product out there that will be able to succeed.
Anyways, Nintendo has all the main components they need to do well. Like, if Nintendo ditched Wii remotes, had no GamePad, had no ext. HDD option, and didn't use high capacity discs, then ya, Wii U wouldn't really be up to date.
It has those things, and I don't really think people give that much credit to Nintendo for what Wii U CAN do.
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I still wouldn't say that the Wii U is going to be as successful as the Wii, and Nintendo certainly knows this, but since the Xbox One announcement I say say with 100% confidence that the Wii U will still thwomp Sony and Microsoft's consoles.
I really wonder as to where that confidence is stemmed from, since neither Sony or MS have announced their full plans. It hasn't been 24 hours since X1's reveal and I'd also like to point out that the 3 months old PS4 reveal video on YT counts almost 30 million views while the U's e3 2011 announcement is locked at 9 million. Of course this is more of an amusing anecdotal fact than a legitimate metric to judge consumer interest, but if, when considering Wii U's status, you add 2 years of negative press, horrible marketing and strong consumer apathy..the picture isn't pretty.
Also according to your math, Nintendo fans are roughly 20 million, correct? I'd say that's a reasonable estimate, the game-centric and relatively recent GCN all but confirms it. PS3 and 360 are currently sitting around 77 million units each. Not really sure how this "whomping" is going to happen.
And PS4 and Xbox1 launches weren't apathetic? Where are the games? Two companies just announced their game consoles with NO killer app! At least Nintendo had NSMBU and Nintendoland at launch. The used games issues, online requirements, and no backwards compatibility aren't helping either, while Wii U has full Wii compatibility and the virtual console. Also, fixed "whomping"...
@Neoproteus
From what I've been told the XBox One RRP will be $399US and looking online the US RRP for the basic Wii U is $299US. So by your reasoning theres no need for a price drop?
I still wouldn't say that the Wii U is going to be as successful as the Wii, and Nintendo certainly knows this, but since the Xbox One announcement I say say with 100% confidence that the Wii U will still thwomp Sony and Microsoft's consoles.
I really wonder as to where that confidence is stemmed from, since neither Sony or MS have announced their full plans. It hasn't been 24 hours since X1's reveal and I'd also like to point out that the 3 months old PS4 reveal video on YT counts almost 30 million views while the U's e3 2011 announcement is locked at 9 million. Of course this is more of an amusing anecdotal fact than a legitimate metric to judge consumer interest, but if, when considering Wii U's status, you add 2 years of negative press, horrible marketing and strong consumer apathy..the picture isn't pretty.
Also according to your math, Nintendo fans are roughly 20 million, correct? I'd say that's a reasonable estimate, the game-centric and relatively recent GCN all but confirms it. PS3 and 360 are currently sitting around 77 million units each. Not really sure how this "whomping" is going to happen.
And PS4 and Xbox1 launches weren't apathetic? Where are the games? Two companies just announced their game consoles with NO killer app! At least Nintendo had NSMBU and Nintendoland at launch. The used games issues, online requirements, and no backwards compatibility aren't helping either, while Wii U has full Wii compatibility and the virtual console. Also, fixed "whomping"...
Killzone Shadow Fall and Kanck are confirmed launch titles, and inFamous Second Son should come soon after launch as well as DriveClub. Footage has been shown for all 4 games at the reveal, which is more footage for triple A first-party games than Nintendo has shown since its reveal. These four games are only what Sony has announced so far too.
The Wii sold because it was the only console targeted at families from day one, and it was always the cheapest. Add that to the fact that it came with Wii Sports and you've got huge sales incoming. I'd say hardcore Nintendo fans make up maybe 20% of the market, but the lineup of games like Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and Smash Bros certainly doesn't hurt.
Bingo. Pretty much this. Though it'd be nice to see the Wii U live up to the Wii's sale.
And PS4 and Xbox1 launches weren't apathetic? Where are the games? Two companies just announced their game consoles with NO killer app! At least Nintendo had NSMBU and Nintendoland at launch. The used games issues, online requirements, and no backwards compatibility aren't helping either, while Wii U has full Wii compatibility and the virtual console. Also, fixed "whomping"...
Nintendoland and NSMB have been a good starter, but the chronic lack of a convincing follow-up pretty much killed the precious launch momentum. Here's a chart that will illustrate my point, the numbers speak for themselves:
Also PS4 and X1 have been only introduced to the public briefly, launch window titles will be confirmed as they get closer to being released.
Despite retro-compatibility and virtual console being great features, they're not enough for people to pull the trigger on a 350 $ box. It needs a steady stream of quality exclusives, which I'm confident are on their way.
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Topic: Nintendo doesn't need to compete against MS and/or Sony
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