Topic: May NPD

@Jazzer94
Well, it happens. The point is that if people really wanted a media box, they'd be buying Xbox.

Or a $50 Roku

This is mainly about the differences between Xbox One, PS4, and Wii U, though. Plus, Roku can't play blurays/DVDs/Cds, in which case, it's another physical vs. digital debate. Xbox One has the most media between Wii U, PS4, and itself, while still playing all the bigger, newer games.

EDIT: If anything, the Kindle Fire TV would still be more worthwhile, IMO.

Except it's Mario Kart. Going to VG Chartz (and remembering that old data on there is fairly reliable).....

Mario Kart 7 sold 680k in the first whole week in the US, 685k in the next three
Mario Kart Wii sold 1mill in the first US whole week, 730k in the next three
Mario Kart 8 sells 400k in the first two days in the US and you're saying it'll sell less than that in the next month..........

Pikmin sells best early on because only hardcore fans who get it day 1 care while Mario Kart is bought by everyone who has a life so...

someone stupid is gonna i assume i'm defending mario kart as awesome and pikmin as lame, which is hilarious

heh, also if we were doing it by something closer to this metric.....

Mario Kart 7 sold 680k in the first week in the US, 1.2mill in 2012, 680k in 2013
Mario Kart Wii sold 1mill in the first US week, 3mill in 2009, 2mill in 2010, 2.5mill in 2011
Mario Kart DS sold 180k in the first US week, 870k in 2006, 910k in 2007, 1.5mill in 2008, 1.5mill in 2009, 2mill in 2010

Mario Kart is not like most games

Your figures kind of back my point up there, Skywake. I'm not saying MK sales are done. It will keep selling for years. What I'm saying is there's a good chance that sales in the first 2 days are higher than all of June. Look at your MK Wii figures again. 1.1 million sales in 4 days, but in an entire 365 days (90 times more days), it only tripled. Your examples are just like my Pikmin one. It sells more in an entire year than it did in 2 days, we're talking just once month here as people keep saying June will be much higher with all that extra time. I'm curious what figure people are expecting from MK8 in June?

I'm not even saying MK's sales WILL be lower in June, but so many people are saying obviously a game will sell more in 30 days than 2 days, when the evidence suggests otherwise. If MK's sales are higher in June, it bucks the trend, one which even other MK games follow.

I would think a majority of Wii U owners will have MK8. That's why having it bundled is Nintendo's strategy to sell Wii U's. People were buying Wii's, THEN MK8, so it's skipping one step for consumers to get the game and console in one go, this time around.

It really depends on how fast Nintendo plans on selling consoles. Nintendo didn't even supply that 9 million consoles that they were supposedly predicting they would reach, in terms of sales, so again, we don't really have any data to make a prediction.

For what it's worth, Wii U's are selling fairly quickly in my area, and I'm talking about Walmart and Bestbuy, not GameStop.

Thing about 3rd Party titles as well is that the 3rd Party is paying to market that game, and the console maker gets some of the benefit as a result. That's why you'll see "Play on PS4" or "Best on Xbox One" at the start or end of an advert, even if it's cross-platform.

Wii U is missing out on all those marketing dollars. Those other consoles are in the public eye more consistently, whereas Wii U is only mentioned when Nintendo decide to actively market it.

I don't know what numbers you were looking at. You said it would sell less in the next month than it did in the first two days. To counter that I showed you numbers from previous Karts that launched earlier in the week. Even with more time in that first week Mario Kart Wii was ~3/4 of that first week sales over the next three weeks and Mario Kart 7 actually matched that first week. You claim that there's no way it can match the May sales in June, what I'm saying is that given we're only looking at 2 days post launch in May it would be unusual for a Mario Kart it it didn't.

Then you set an even lower bar for Mario Kart to jump over. Pikmin 3 only sold 50% more for the first year than it did in in that first week. Well all the previous Mario Karts have smashed that. Mario Kart 7 launched in 2011, in 2012 it sold twice as many copies as it did in the first week spike. Mario Kart Wii jumped out of the gates with 1mill sales but in the following years managed to do 2-3mill every year. And Mario Kart DS did the reverse of a typical game, it launched with a whimper and kept climbing. Mario Kart is the definition of an evergreen title.

Yes, there is always a sales peak in the first week. I don't disagree, that wasn't what I was trying to "disprove". What I was actually saying was that games like Mario Kart aren't like most other games. Most games will sell most of their copies in the first few weeks. A game like Mario Kart? Most of the sales will be over the following years. Next year I doubt anyone will still be buying Watch Dogs but Mario Kart 8 could still easily be in the top 20.

As for what I expect in June for NA? I'd say anywhere from 400k to 800k....

Microsoft and Sony are paying for the "Play on PS4" and "Best on Xbox One"; not the other way around. 3rd parties are paying to publish their game, and whichever console logo is at the end of the advert/trailer, is paying the advertisement bill.

CoD Ghosts was on one off the first Xbox One commercials, showing the game DVR feature. Microsoft paid for that, not Activision. 3rd parties allow that to happen, because they are now getting free advertising, as long as it is promoting whichever console in the process.

I definitely don't think it's impossible that June will be a lot higher than May, but I think it's unlikely based on what's happened before. I think I agree with most of what you're saying. I'm not saying those two says will count for most of the sales this year, and certainly not for most of the lifetime sales. I probably shouldn't have confused matters by referring to Pikmin's LTD sales.

I just think it's quite reasonable to suggest the first 2 days of May could very well see more sales than all of June. In Japan they sold 325,000 in 2 days, and in the following 14 days they've sold 115,000. In the UK they sold 55,000 in 2 days and in the following 14 days 22,000 have been sold. So in both cases the 4 weeks are going to be lower than the first 2 days. That's what
I'm basing this on.

@Peach64

Probably in the minority but I sold my PS4 for the Xbox One. At the end of the day I don't really care about resolution and right now the First Party content as well as non gaming functions of the X1 impress me more than the PS4.

While I don't expect Wii U hardware sales to be good in May, but isn't Mario Kart hitting number 2 with such little hardware sales a bad thing. Everyone on this site and the Nintendo community has been singing its praises but this seems to only indicate that the only people who picked up Mario Kart 8 was far in large the people who already had a wii u, just as we've seen with Nintendo's other big tentpole releases.

MK8's sales are fantastic. Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if it did 800k in June, as I think it's far better than any other game being released this the month, my point is I'd be surprised if it did, because of what's going on in Japan and the UK, what's happened with MK Wii etc.

But aren't the hardware sales a bit disappointing in the face of these. The actual software sales are fantastic, but I don't think the hardware sales are anywhere near what Nintendo or the community wanted. This has been the game being hailed as the savior of the Wii U.

They are disappointing (not terrible) doesn't help Japanese hardware sales were only 12k.

I don't trust sales data anywhere anymore as some definitive accurate example, because otherwise no one actually buys video games anymore it seems

It really depends on how many consoles 3rd parties expect Nintendo to sell. It could be a mixture of their current sales on Xbox One and PS4, along with how much money it would cost to make Wii U games. If selling a certain number of Xbox One and PS4 games pays for a Wii U game, which has a high chance of selling with X amount of units, then that's when 3rd parties will probably jump. That's the main discussion here, because it really doesn't matter how many units Nintendo sells, if 3rd parties still won't jump on board.

There has to be some sort of number Nintendo needs, and 3rd parties must have at least some faith in Nintendo reaching that goal, otherwise they'd be leading Nintendo on a sales "goose chase".

Another point, would be that their total goal for this year's end would be around 9 million units, which was what their original goal was. As long as Nintendo meets their goal, then I think they'll be fine. If you ask me, the 9 million units they originally had as their goal, seems more like the maximum # of consoles they could have sold, with 3 million being the current minimum.

Well I'd assume they want to sell many units as possible and with all the bad news Nintendo had up till E3 and them positioning Mario kart as the big system seller than they could be disappointed. But you also have Caveat that the Xbox One just revived a price cut and Nintendo might be waiting for the holiday. Still even saying Nintendo won E3 they didn't show much that would change their fortune's expect Smash Bros and to a lesser extent Amiibo.

Nintendo no doubt wants to sell as many consoles as possible, but I'm saying that whether that matters to 3rd parties could go either way. If Nintendo never reaches this goal that 3rd parties want them to meet, that more than likely means it was an impossible goal, to begin with.