Topic: How do you rate the Wii U's 2nd year in comparison to it's 1st?

@skywake

11-12 million Wii U's sold by December 31st?? That means the Wii U needs to sell around 4 million consoles in the next 2 months.

Sorry, but I can't take anything you say seriously if you truly believe that will be possible. That is a ridiculously high estimation based on nothing but 'feels'. I am basing my opinion that it won't hit those numbers on the evidence provided by the release of MK8, which only boosted Wii U sales by a few hundred thousand units over the course of a month or two.

But you are saying that Smash Bros will sell 3-4 million more systems. Right.....

I feel like everyone is blowing each other's opinions out of proportion to make a point. Yes the Wii U is going to get a big boost this holiday season, may not be as big of a boost as some of you would like. Can we please get back on topic comparing the 1st year of the Wii U (which had more 3rd Party support) to the 2nd year (which had more 1st Party support)

There's 7 million wii u's out there right now, and it took all year just to get from 6 to 7 million. There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that the wii u will sell 3 million consoles by december 31st. It'll probably be quite a while before it even gets close. I'd say if they're lucky, it'll hit 8 million by the end of the year

Not that I disagree with your Wii list, but your Wii U list is laughable. First all, Zombi U is amazing. And second none of the ports were rubbish. Batman, Mass Effect, Injustice, Tekken and the others are all great games.

Well, it doesn't matter when some of them were released. Tomb Raider and GTA V both came out like a year later on Xbox One and PS4. It is relevant, because that means Wii U was getting 3rd party support, but people didn't care anyways, regardless of which brand they are particularly fond of. Even if CoD Black Ops II was a Wii U 8th gen exclusive, people still would have passed it by for next year's Ghosts on Xbox One and PS4, which is what ended up happening.

I just figure that 3rd parties aren't making as many games for Wii U, because when push comes to shove, the people who are buying and playing those games would have bought them on Xbox or PS anyway, regardless of whether Wii U has them or not. As long as 3rd parties are making enough money off of PS4 and Xbox One to continue making said games, money isn't really an issue.

That's why Nintendo is paying for 3rd party games. Some of those companies didn't have enough money to release said game, like Bayonetta 2 and Devil's Third, so they can continue to get 3rd party support w/o blatantly just "stealing" a big name brand like CoD. Not only would CoD be a truckloads more expensive title to pay out for an exclusive release, but now you'd be forcing people to buy a Wii U to play that game.

The most expensive deal Nintendo made was probably with Sega for Sonic Lost World, Sonic Boom, and Lego. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate is basically an exclusive they secured with Capcom back on Wii. Even ZombiU is an exclusive, and Nintendo didn't pay for that. That's why I'm saying that Nintendo has their own little 3rd party thing going on, aside from the regular releases that everyone gets.

EDIT: Also, Wonderful 101 is the only paid 3rd party developed game that doesn't count as 3rd party, because Nintendo straight up owns the W101 IP, even though Platinum Games made it. That gave Platinum games a big boost, and so will Microsoft's dealing with them.

What color is the sky in your world?

What's wrong with the games he listed? Some of those games were pretty spectacular.

Mario Kart was not over Christmas, Christmas also has it's own boost in sales across all platforms. If you take into account that the Wii U is selling at ~1.5x the rate this year as it was last year and the fact that for the end of last year it moved around 1.5mill during the holiday period. That puts it at 10mill by years end. Then you look at Smash on the 3DS and how it has moved units (up at ~200k from ~90k before launch) and the hype surrounding it? I don't think 3-4mill extra units by the end of the year is out of the question.

Anyways, if this number is so crazy what's your prediction then? You think it'll only sell another couple of hundred thousand by the end of the year? Because lock it in and we'll see who's closer

Hey, at least you put a number to it. So you think it'll sell only 600k over the next two months? Even with Christmas? Selling a third of what it did over the same period last year even with Kart and Smash? Well ok. We'll see who's closer

I am going to say the install base will be at 9-10 mill by the end of the year

Ehhhhh both weren't too hot. Thankfully, Nintendo has put out some must-own games throughout the span of the system's life, rather than having a bunch of great, but not necessarily must-own titles.

When I phrase it like that, it doesn't sound good. I guess what I'm saying is that Nintendo is justifying the purchase of the Wii U as a secondary console by having a few incredible games that people will come back to time and time again (Bayonetta 2 and Smash, and Ubisoft put out the definitive multiplayer version of Rayman). Yeah, you won't come to the console much, but when you do, it'll be great.

But if you only have a Wii U, well, I hope you only play games every once in a blue moon, because there's slim pickings if you're looking just at the Wii U library (different story if you're looking at the Wii library and VC on the Wii, of course. Backwards compatibility is wondrous). It's especially the case if you look to the future, where there's not much coming. At least the 1st year had some semblance of decent third party support.

I think that's a fair prediction. That's what I'd be predicting if it wasn't for the fact that the hype for Smash is a lot, lot bigger than I expected. So numbers higher than that? I think they could happen. However on the other end of the spectrum I'm not that open to the predictions that it'll be at under 9mill by years end. That seems way too low. Something's seriously off if the Wii U now with Kart and Smash and minus the "new console hype" for PS4/XBOne can't beat what it did over the same period last year.

I think Smash 3DS killed a lot of hype for Wii U. Plus, I am the kind of person that sets expectations really low and am glad I am wrong lol. I think it is sad the other consoles have just become 3rd Party machines. I feel if Nintendo could start gaining ground in the 3rd party department then PS4/Xbone would really start to look weak (software wise, not power wise)

No, that is called "reality". It's at around 7 million systems sold now. It's been selling 25-40K systems a month in Japan now for a long time, and in North America it's selling in the low 100K's monthy. The other systems have more momentum at this time than they even had last year possibly (more games available) and will continue to be strong competitors this holiday season.

I think you are severely overestimating the general publics desire for Smash Bros, and the impact it will have on console sales. In case you haven't noticed, basically all the fanboys on here drooling over this game already own a Wii U. There are not 3-4 million people waiting out there for Smash Bros to come out before picking up a Wii-U this Christmas. My prediction is a little over 8 million Wii U's sold by the end of December, mainly due to it being Xmas.

Don't try to pass off your opinions as facts. There's clearly no way to know if your predictions are correct until the holiday season is over. I'm not gonna bother making any predictions, but I hope it does well.

7.3 million shipped by the end of September. Those are numbers from Nintendo themselves. VGChartz is reporting 7.4 million sold through as of Oct 18, but that's probably a little overtracked.

So you're suggesting about what, 800k Wii U sales this quarter? It sold 2 million same quarter last year with no Mario Kart and no Smash, so yeah, I would say 9 million LTD by the end of 2014 is the floor, not the ceiling.

Jan-Sep 2013: 850k shipped
Oct-Dec 2013: 2,000k shipped

Jan-Sep 2014: 1,400k shipped
Oct-Dec 2014: 800k shipped?? Worse than the massive software drought in Jan-Sep 2013? I think you're the one who needs to look at reality. The Wii U is selling poorly, but its momentum isn't so abysmally awful as you suggest.

8-9 million is reasonable (an increase of 1.5-2 million), but nowhere close to the insane prediction from @skywake of 11-12 million in sales which started this whole debate.

To put that in perspective, the PS4 is currently at 13 million in sales, and the Wii U is at 7 million. That guy is honestly believing that in the next two months, the Wii U is going to be nipping at the heels of the PS4 in terms of overall sales??? I'm running out of adjectives to describe how ludicrous that is....

Apparently some people in this thread are living in an alternate universe where half of game sales don't happen over November/December. Where Black Friday isn't a thing in the US, or Boxing Day in other parts of the world (and I think the US also?). A world where people don't spend hundreds of dollars on their kids, partners, siblings or other relatives as a once a year thing. Obviously sales for the rest of the year for the Wii U will only be at the same rate they currently are in this alternate reality. Shame for their argument we don't live there I guess

That's assuming that the PS4 sells nothing during the same period. You know, the console that sold 4mill during the same period year despite having no killer app. Did I say that? Nope. Also your maths are out, 1.5-2mill sales over that period is not 8-9mill, it's 9-9.5mill. If you want to say that my "9mill would be disappointing, 10mill is the status-quo, it could potentially do as high 12mill" statement is "insane" then at least get these things right.

That's because it's so ludicrous, that it just might work. I just flipped a coin. Tails for selling the same as usual, and heads for reaching 9-10 million.

Apparently some people in this thread are living in an alternate universe where buying a Wii U is the only option during November/December. Where on Black Friday in the US, or Boxing Day in other parts of the world the only thing that people desire to purchase is a Wii U. A world where people don't spend hundreds of dollars on their kids, partners, siblings or other relatives as a once a year thing on anything other than a Wii U. Obviously sales for the rest of the year for the Wii U will be 800X what they are currently because no other video game systems exist and there are at least 4 million people waiting for Smash Bros to come out before they buy a two year old console.

You said the Wii U will sell between 3-4 million consoles in the next two months. Not even Nintendo themselves are predicting that, and they have been over estimating Wii U sales since the beginning.

Laughable.

8-9 million isn't reasonable. It's ignoring trends and historical data. Like I said, that's suggesting that it will sell worse than it did last Christmas without the two killer apps. It's just not happening. 11-12 million is lucrative and unlikely, but not impossible.

And PS4 will, believe it or not, also sell through the holiday. So even if the Wii U did defy the odds and hit 11-12 million, it still wouldn't be anywhere close to the PS4 because the PS4 will be at 17-18 million, maybe more.