Topic: Everybody who thinks there is no way the Wii U will be discontinued within 5 years

People heavily over estimate the power of a launch line up. The Wii U had a decent launch line up. It wasn't thr launch line up that started the trouble, it was the video game drought that almost immediately followed. We got maybe six notable games between launch and 3D World and it didn't seem like there'd be much of a line up at all until E3 2014. And even then we had to wait. It's the software drought, not the launch line up that did the damage.

How does it hurt the industry?

Well, the GameCube had six game releases in 2007, none of which came out in Japan. [1] So yes, technically it got one more year.

But yeah, I don't think Wii U support will end with the release of whatever the NX will be. I think someone at Nintendo said it will be a “third pillar” or something like the DS originally was. And it's true that the GBA's life continued after the release of that system. Edit: Actually it might be that I'm just thinking of this image.

I don't think it'll be discontinued in 5 years, but it's almost certainly going to be replaced by then. It wouldn't be smart to keep the console on the market too long and risk Microsoft and Sony jumping even further ahead of Nintendo. 2017 release sounds about right.

Of course, this thread neglects one very important fact.

We don't know what the NX is. We don't know if it's a handheld, console, both, or neither. For all we know, the NX could literally be a third pillar and the Wii U could keep kicking until 2019. Maybe Nintendo will try to keep the Wii U going until the NextBox and PS5 come out and then build a console on par in terms of specs.

We don't know.

Also, Wii U =/= Virtual Boy. I know you pointed this out, but the Wii U isn't even close to the Virtual Boy's level...not even a little.

IF the NX is the next home console (of which there is next to zero evidence) then we will see it holiday 2017 at the earliest. If it's a handheld, I can see it being released early 2017. Logically, I don't see the Wii U 2 releasing until 2018.

Also, people are reading too much into that image with the NX alongside the Wii U and 3DS. It's just a graph to show that something new is coming, not that there's a "3rd pillar" ... we already had a "3rd pillar" and it ended up not being a 3rd pillar at all.

@sinalefa

"Better hold off even if they are losing money instead of burning bridges with loyal fans."

This is a popular sentiment around here, however, who are these fans that are going to feel so burned that they stop supporting Nintendo all for getting a 4 year cycle VS a 5 year cycle. I have never once run into a gamer who expressed to me, "I swear, man, if this system is a year shorter than the average, I'm done with this company". I firmly believe that just won't happen, atleast not to a degree that would affect Nintendo's decisions. If you think this, how do you feel about Nintendo systems being 5 years VS the other companies being 6 to 7. Nobody mentions that either. Or, like mentioned in the OP, how the Wii was all but dropped it's last year and a half or so.

Basically, the point I'm making is that belief seems to exist only on these boards, not the real world. If Nintendo is not afraid to announce the NX 2.5 years into the Wii U's lifespan, then they SURELY are not afraid to support it 4 years VS 5 years. I don't think there is anyone at Nintendo that is in charge of making decisions that believes supporting a losing console for an extra year just to hit this "5 year satisfactory mark" is a better idea than releasing a newer console with much more potential a year earlier with the potential to light the market on fire.

I think it's possible Nintendo could be under the belief that "If Sony and Microsoft can come in and cream us in the sales department a full year after we release, we can surely do it to them 2 years after they release." Or, who knows, maybe they're even planning it earlier. In their minds, there could be a window of time before it officially becomes "mid generation", which most would agree is a bad time to release a console, per what history has shown.

We also have to keep in mind generational lines are being blurred. Nintendo dropped Wii's support earlier than usual. Sony and Microsoft continued support much longer than usual last gen. The typical 5 years is starting to become a thing of the past. I think it's fairly obvious that the market goes by Sony and Microsoft's clocks as to when generations begin and end, not Nintendo's, so although we are "mid gen" on Nintendo's time, we are technically not quite mid gen on Sony and Microsoft's, being only one year in. ESPECIALLY since many are projecting a 7-10 year window for the new consoles, based on the expanding life cycles.

This is all very possible. Another option is Nintendo could be using it's "Third Pillar" idea like it did for 3ds. We all know it was really just their way of safely testing the waters for a new gen to move on from the Gameboy line, and allowing themselves to go back in case the 2 screens failed. Since it didn't fail, the "third pillar" just became the new gen. This worked because it was very different from it's predecessor.

Well, guess what? If NX is indeed a hybrid console, the 3rd pillar idea works perfectly. "It's not replacing the home console, it's not replacing your portable, it's in between, it does both, it's a whole different thing! Check it out! We're still supporting out home and portable consoles that just so happen to be close to the end of their lifecycle, but check out this totally different thing! Oh, what? It's selling like hot cakes? Well, we just so HAPPEN to be at the time where we'd make our new generation anyways, so here it is! And we just so happened to combine our handheld and home console teams a couple years back so this all happens to fall in line perfectly!"

The final way to minimize the impact of "early gen ending" is just to keep the backwards compatibility. "All those Wii U games you bought still work on the new console, don't worry, we didn't forget about you." And just like Zelda U will likely be, make the first year or 2 of games compatible for Wii U and NX so it allows people the choice to keep their Wii U for a "full console life cycle" so they don't feel shafted, should they be one of these people this board seems to think there are so many of. Come to think of it, like 98 percent of PS4 and XBO games are also made for PS3 and XB360, so the other guys are already doing this.

I dunno, it all seems so clear to me, but maybe I'm just wrong. Lord knows it's happened plenty before. I can't see how some think it's so unlikely, though...

Have a good night everyone.

I personally think it will get a 4 and a half year life span as far as retail titles but will continue to get vc and dl indie games for at-least a year after.

It's not so much about burning bridges with loyal fans, because they're going to get the new home console no matter what. It's about Nintendo's image towards other gamers. Look what happened with Sega, within nine years we got 3 home consoles and two add-on's. Now Nintendo is nowhere to the extreme that happened with Sega, but surely, if Nintendo has the image that it will fully support a console, no matter how low the sales are, don't you think that's going to create some customer loyalty?

I don't know why this equals to ''Nintendo will replace the Wii U early.'' The N64 was released in 1996 (1997 in Europe), by 1998 we already knew that Nintendo was working with ArtX on their new console, the N2000. In 1999 Nintendo revealed their new home console under the name of Project Dolphin. The GameCube itself wasn't released until 2001 (2002 in Europe).

Miyamoto revealed in an interview that they started working on the Wii all the way back in 2001. Project Revolution was announced during E3 in 2004. The Wii itself didn't pop up on the shelves until holiday 2006, two-and-a-half years later.

This happens every generation, a few years in the new home console's life and we already know that Nintendo is working on a new console. The NX isn't proof for anything (let alone the fact that we don't even know whether it's a home console or a handheld console). Besides, the only reason the NX was mentioned was to silence rumours about Nintendo going completely mobile. Anyway, this is nothing new, so I don't see how all of a sudden it now is proof that the Wii U will be replaced early.

I'm not arguing that this won't be the case, but there's simply no evidence. I'm fine if people like to speculate, but don't pretend that things are proof, when they are not.

I wouldn't be too surprised if all the negative talk and doom and gloom about the Wii U have contributed to its image as well.

The argument about coming out to soon burning fans isn't about fans not buying the system. If the fans feel burned on a system, then how will people who aren't fans feel about that system's reputation? How would replacing a system without satisfying current consumers be a strong way to launch a new system? Releasing a new system won't fix their reputation. Even if they released a more powerful system that was easier for 3rd Parties to develop for, would people be interested in the system? Would 3rd parties want to develop for it if they still don't sell well on Nintendo's system? By increasing their reputation by sticking with their product, and even possibly taking a year or two of loses, they can bounce back stronger than before. Sony did it with the PS3, I don't see why Nintendo can't do it. (Sony had the advantage of throwing money at 3rd Parties but I still think Nintendo can do it)

They're not going to fix their image problem by staying the course, though. Nintendo's image is poor because they release underpowered hardware and don't appeal to mass market demographics, and they need new hardware to really fix these problems. Clinging to the Wii U is going to do them more harm than good for their image because it shows that Nintendo doesn't take hardware seriously.

Except we've already known Nintendo's been working on new hardware for over a year. Project NX is already announced, and details will be shown off next year. Based on previous release patterns, that puts the release date squarely in 2017.

Nintendo clearly don't have the resources to shoulder 3 consoles at once. They were/are being very clever in not ditching the Wii U straight away, even though they know it's not doing too well. At least now we know that even if the NX is a 'failure', they will continue to support it - giving fans some reassurance.
But in regards to the OP, I'm not too sure there even are any people who believe they'll be supporting the Wii U in 5 years. Perhaps with repairs and whatnot, but full retail games in 2020 specifically made for Wii U? Not likely.
I think we'll see the NX next year, with a release in 2017. Just carry on enjoying your Wii Us for now!

Who cares about the hardware. It's easy to win back people's desire for better hardware at the start of a new cycle. Give people something shiny and you'll get their attention regardless of who they are. Having a reputation for taking the quality of your software seriously though, that's another story.

The truth of the matter is that a more immediate Wii U successor wouldn't solve any technical problems. It wouldn't give us a massive leap in what the Wii U is technically capable of doing. It won't get third parties to automatically jump ship. It won't give them a leg-up on the PS4 in terms of install base. What they do have however is a console that is gaining a reputation for high quality first party software. Nintendo isn't the "waggle and minigames" company they were seen as in the Wii era. They're also giving us decent deals in terms of DLC and so on. That matters.

Also this thread is the millionth time that this thing has been discussed. There's no information to suggest that the NX is not a portable. If people want to argue that it is a Wii U successor then they can if they want. But if they want to build a compelling argument they must first explain why the 3DS shouldn't get a successor first.

It's not too late for the Wii U to be successful. I don't think the answer to the problem is to drop it and replace it with its successor. I think that if Nintendo keeps doing their very best to bolster the Wii U, its reputation will improve and people will want in on it.

I could be wrong, but that's how I feel about it.

It could do better, but it's too late to be a true success. It's not getting the third party a lot of people want and sadly the flashy graphics of PS4 and XB1 will also influence a lot of people to get those instead.

I don't think it's too late for the Wii U to be a reasonable success one way or another. I do think we're too deep into this console generation for other players to be rolling the dice again. Whether those other players are outsiders OR Nintendo/Microsoft starting over. The fact is that the potential market anyone can grab whatever they do shrinks mid cycle and explodes as it tails out. It's no co-incidence that they try all land as close to each other as possible.

As I've said repeatedly, it's the portable market that's on its last legs right now. That's where Nintendo will strike next and it was always going to be. New 3DS isn't a revival, it's a swan song.

@Skywake I don't know. I've heard a lot of good arguments to suggest that the NX might be both. No one seems to really have any goid ideas on how it'll work, but it does make sense that Nintendo would create a system capable of both handheld and console benefits so more people are interested and Nintendo can finally escape that awful medium of being too prolific to attract 3rd parties and too slow to support both systems.

It wouldn't be quite like ditching consoles to focus on handhelds, especially if Nintendo can find a way to improve a game's capabilities when plugged in and on top of that, they can always offer devs the ability to leave that feature off (so just making the picture bigger when it's hooked up instead of improving the graphical quality and functionality) or forcing the feature (so the game would always have access to full console power, if needed.

I can't say how long the WiiU will go on for but they need to discontinue the software's exclusivity to the console. They need canibalize the Wii U library to prop up the launch of a new system. I don't see how they can keep investing in well developed HD games only for them to maybe sell some or maybe not much at all. That's not sustainable in any way, not for the business or the morale of Nintendo's studios. Come 2016 they need to release a system that will absorb the WiiU architecture and rebrand those games to get a device out there that will sell at a pace that's anything better than WiiU's

Because taking software seriously has clearly worked out for them. Just look at all of those 9 million Wii U sales.

The fact of the matter is that hardware does matter, good software doesn't get you very far if the hardware doesn't suit the market's needs. And that's Nintendo's problem, they don't make hardware that appeals to mass markets, they make the hardware they want to make and expect people to like them and it doesn't always work that way. The AAA market wants a high powered console that's simple to play and developer for where dudebro games can sell. The casuals want an all purpose device that they can take on the go and play short, simple games. The Wii U doesn't do any of this and it never can, they need to design the hardware around those needs in order to appeal to the mass market. That's why it's in Nintendo's best interest to replace the Wii U as soon as possible, it's pretty much reached its limit in terms of sales and popularity because of its very concept.