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Topic: Will this be the last Nintendo console?

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KamauPotter

I was expecting to feel positive today, about Nintendo's future prospects. But as much as I adore Nintendo, they are a very stubborn company* when it comes to learning lessons. I'm concerned about the anorexic launch line-up, and the price point in particular. £279.00 is more expensive than XBOX and PS4, which are well established and have an abundance of games. This price seems crazy, and when combined with the seemingly poor launch line-up, I can't see the Switch being successful early, it will definitely require some course correct and a price-drop I expect possibly before Mario Odyssey.

I don't buy Nintendo console for third-party games, I see them as very much secondary. But - and correct me if I'm wrong - the third-party support for Switch at present seems resolutely mediocre.

It seems to me that the justification for the price is the concept of getting two devices, mobile and home console. Which I get, but it's wishful thinking, and people aren't going to automatically perceive it in that way. I also think people are going to perceive the joy-cons as fancy wii motes (this may be a good thing?)

Nintendo must be really confident to a) put all its eggs in one basket and b) go with that, slightly insulting, price point (considering the launch line-up).

Nintendo need to have a very effective, high-profile marking push for the Switch. This is something that Nintendo have almost never been good at.

I'll buy the Switch and support Nintendo as always. It may well be a great console but at this stage, if I were a betting man, I would bet against it being a commercial success. I know Nintendo have a lot of capital and could absorb another failure financially, but realistically, they aren't going to keep making consoles if the Switch isn't a success. So, apologies for such pessimism, and I hope I'm very wrong, but I do think this might be the last Nintendo home console.

*is it unreasonable to actually expect them to make more games of their major well-loved franchises; F-Zero? Wave Race? Metroid? etc.

KamauPotter

zitpig

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect other Nintendo franchises - I just don't think it's reasonable to expect them all at once

I'm sure those games are coming and many more, but they don't all have to arrive within the first few months of a console's life. Hopefully E3 this year will be far more interesting

zitpig

Dezzy

@kamaupotter

Keep in mind that Nintendo will probably be combining their handheld and console developers to work on this. So it should get more first party games than previous consoles have. I imagine they'll have the creative horse power to make it a success. But it is priced too highly. Especially in the UK.

It's genuinely probably cheaper to buy a US version and import it if you're in the UK. Completely ridiculous.

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KamauPotter

@Dezzy I think Nintendo just need to communicate well, reassure people that the games they want to play are coming, steadily and consistently. If they tell consumers that, for example, Metroid is coming in 2018 or whenever, people are reassured by that and are prepared to be patient. But when there is a shortage of games and poor communication, people just don't have that motivation to buy or believe in the console anymore, like we saw with the Wii U.

Agreed on the price, £279.00 for a mid-generation Nintendo console in the UK hugely disadvantages the Switch straight away.

Hope for the best though.

Edited on by KamauPotter

KamauPotter

sentiententity

I think the switch will sell better than the wii u. But the market for mobile consoles is shrinking. Plus I'm not sure about the timing. If someone wants a current gen console they've already bought a ps4 or xb1 by now. If they want a powerful mobile game device the vita has been around for a while if they want it. Nintendo has to find people who want to spend ANOTHER $300 on something. I'll definitely buy one because I'm a Nintendo fan and I don't have a ps4 anyway.

sentiententity

Andrzej777

Every console can be the last. It all depends on how many new fans they can bring into the fold. The 3ds has sold a lot. Wii u sales, while unimpressive were not bad imho. In other words there is millions of fans out there. Nintendo has a great chance here. They just need to impress with their games and dont stop doing so even if there is ample third party support.
Bringing handheld and home console gaming together means they just have to support one gaming machine.

Andrzej777

Ralizah

No, Nintendo isn't doomed because of a rough launch.

I could see the Switch being their last big idea for a console if it goes over well, though. Just release hardware refreshes every four or so years.

Ralizah

Octane

@Ralizah I hope that's true. It's essentially everything in one, and a future upgrade could also function as a VR system. They've got everything covered with this concept.

Octane

FragRed

I'm not too sure whether this will be the last but Nintendo needs to do something big if they want this system to move units outside the first month. Yes the UK price is totally rediculus and the UK sites are far less positive than the US seems to be, just from my general observation.

I hope to God that Nintendo has some kinda Direct as others have mentioned, especially one for the West, which reveals plenty of other unannounced games that are available physically - what you see on the store shelves has a big impact on whether you buy or not.

I also worry that like the Wii U, low sales won't persuade Nintendo to do a significant price drop to get the thing moving. They're looking at this from a pure money point of view and nothing else. Or that's the message they are sending out. Not good.

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Octane

@FragRed I think a Direct is important. I'm usually against announcing games that won't be out for another year or so, but I think we need the one or two 2018 games for the Switch that shows Nintendo is confident in this product and is determined to support it. On the other hand, the thing's sold out everywhere, so they don't really have to do any marketing for a while, at least not until new stock arrives.

Octane

FragRed

@Octane I maybe wrong but I was under the impression when Nintendo first announced only 2 million at launch that they also said they had the ability to upscale production should they need to. I'll have to see if I can find that article.

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Octane

@FragRed Q12: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/161028.pdf

It's from an interview from last year, 2 million units are produced for launch and if there is great demand, they may ramp up the production. He hasn't specified whether that means more units available before launch or after. It could be that now the system is sold out, that they're ramping up production for the rest of 2017.

Octane

FragRed

@Octane I feel Nintendo needs to satisfy ramping up demand to meet pre-orders before they look at the rest of the year. Bare in mind that the launch of a new console usually sees high volumes in sales, but that doesn't always continue in the months that follow. And if Nintendo can meet that month one demand it means they can say "Hey look at how many millions we sold!" And not "Yeah we sold 2 million".

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Ralizah

@Octane Yeah, I don't really see myself buying traditional consoles anymore. And this device, in particular, trades on Nintendo's biggest strengths. I'm all in for the Switch.

Ralizah

skywake

I think it might be the last Nintendo console in the same way that I think the PS4 might be the last Sony console. I think we're moving away from the idea of console generations entirely. We're just going to get newer and higher spec versions of the same machines from now on. It just makes so much more sense both for consumers and the bottom line. Just imagine how much more appealing the Switch would be if the Wii U's library was there already.

But that's not what this thread is about obviously. This is a doom thread talking about how Nintendo is going to go third party. Despite what I'd argue is a fairly positive response for the Switch more broadly. I think its fair to say that you're jumping the gun a bit. If you want to ask that question at least come back at the end of the year with some idea of the early install base. If it's under 5mill by January next year? Then you can start talking about how Nintendo are doomed. But if it's over 10mill....

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rallydefault

Yea, @skywake is right. It's all about numbers, and we don't really know any of them yet.

Actually, we know one: 2 million. That's from Reggie, I believe. They have 2 million Switch consoles ready for the first 3 weeks of March, basically. So, assuming preorders sell through, they'll have 2 million consoles out there by April. From that point on, like @skywake said, if they can sell another 8 mil or so in roughly a year, they may be in good shape. If it struggles to even double its numbers by Christmas, then that's when a thread like this can be taken seriously.

rallydefault

OorWullie

@Dezzy Its not really that bad compared to the Dollar.$300 is £246,so at £279 its only £33 extra.I had to pay £70 in custom fees on top of shipping to have a Wii U shipped to Thailand,it wont be much less than that to import one from the US.Before Brexit $300 was around £200 but even if exchange rates were the same as they were it probably still wouldn't have cost less than £239,that's just the way it's always been.I had hoped Nintendo would take a little hit on the UK price in the hope exchange rates improve,£249 would have been the sweet spot but with all the uncertainty on the horizon that's not going to happen any time soon.

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Andrzej777

Octane wrote:

@FragRed Q12: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/161028.pdf

It's from an interview from last year, 2 million units are produced for launch and if there is great demand, they may ramp up the production. He hasn't specified whether that means more units available before launch or after. It could be that now the system is sold out, that they're ramping up production for the rest of 2017.

Might actually be a good move. If its sold out it may increase demand

Andrzej777

Joeynator3000

Will the PS4 and XBox 1 be the last consoles from those companies?

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AlexSays

Yes, my dad works at Nintendo and he told me.

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