Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Nintendo typically make around 60% of its yearly revenue during the holiday season (Q3) every year. Not having a brand new game during November/December could really undermine the Switch's visibility on the market and maybe even permanently hurt it. Nintendo will be the cheapest of the big 3 this winter and Nintendo should really be seizing this opportunity while making sure there is excitement outside of that crowd.

It's never been a problem in the past, some of Nintendo's most loved games have released the same month as the launch of the competitors consoles (LOZ Majora's Mask, Super Mario 3D World, Golden Sun, LOZ Link Between Worlds, etc.).

In my other forum, most people seem to be talking about waiting to get PS5 &/or Series X, though, @Magician ..... I doubt many will want to get both of those this year!
I'm sure there will be something around then from Nintendo, @Toy_Link! They just don't want to announce anything until they're sure when it'll come out, which is good

@Toy_Link - Perhaps. But with the Switch currently experiencing Wii-like levels of interest from consumers, I don't believe visibility during the Holiday season will be an issue for Nintendo.

@BruceCM - Folks online may not be vocally committing to a PS5 or Series X. But when you have Sony commenting on the fact that fewer PS5 consoles will be available during its launch as compared to the PS4 launch, then it's almost a guarantee that FOMO will come into play. If the PS5 and Series X launch in November they'll sell out quickly, experience supply issues, and will be very hard for consumers to find until Spring 2021.

Well, people seem more prepared to wait to get either PS5 or Series X than with previous console launches, @Magician .... We'll see how it goes, though

@BruceCM By this time in 2013, we already knew a fair amount about PS4 (hardware and games) and the infamous XB1 reveal was approaching. Meanwhile this time we know very little about PS5 in general and we know a lot about Series X hardware but virtually nothing about games.

I think we'll have a good idea whether PS5/Series X takes attention away from Switch by the end of July.

Yeah, things can change, @Grumblevolcano .... Some of the games recently revealed on XBox side are only for Series X & the others promise to be optimized for it, though That's more than PS5 currently has! If Sony suddenly announces some big game, whether console exclusive or at least a timed one, that could still make a big difference Not to me, personally but to plenty of those currently saying they'll wait to get that console.

PS5 and Series X will do well. Any new console launch does well because you always have the super fans who will buy anything.

But if Nintendo knocks 50-100 bucks off Switch for the Holiday season and/or has a huge first-party game, it'll easily outsell Sony and Microsoft. Assuming Nintendo can get stock built up.

PS5 and Series X are the least excited I've ever been for a new console generation. So there's an opposing anecdote for you.

@Magician the thing with the “PS5 and XBox Series X will hover up everyone’s money” argument is that there will be 60 million+ Switch owners by this Christmas.

The new consoles likely won’t hit 20 million combined until the second half of 2021. That’s 40 million Switch owners (at least) who won’t have just bought a next gen console. It feels (online and in the gaming bubble) like everyone is suddenly jumping to the new hot thing but that won’t actually happen for most people for quite a while.

Even the Wii U had a pretty successful launch. And especially with limited stock, the first shipment of these devices is going to disappear FAST.

Doesn't mean Nintendo won't make bank during the holidays if they have something big to push. Or that Nintendo really has much to fear from these new console launches overall.

Unless they drop the ball when it comes to first-party support or manufacturing, then Switch will be outselling these new power consoles for at least a couple of years before next-gen really gains steam. Especially if Microsoft makes a stronger showing with XSeX and eats into Sony's numbers, which I'm expecting they will.

The reason the new gen consoles are generally less exciting is because new generation excitement typically hinges on A a bold new way to experience games, such as with DS or Switch, or B a major graphical leap that makes the current gen look archaic by comparison.

And since the other platforms don't really chase after A, it's method B that has historically been relied upon. Problem with that is diminishing returns have finally caught up with us. Yes, there's advancements, but the immediate wow factor looking at games is pretty underwhelming, as they're near indiscernable from current gen games on X1X/PS4pro. Even when this gen was revealed, it was noticeably less impactful. But it was still a decent jump. But each gen the perceptible difference is less and less, and that's only compounded further by mid gen refreshes. The new consoles are the smallest perceptible leap yet. Videos are being made on YT addressing this, talking about why games don't really look much better this time.

I'm willing to wager 95 out of 100 people, if shown screenshots of games on XSX/PS5 vs X1X/PS4pro, wouldn't be able to tell a difference. It's just the reality of a hard limit we've been approaching. This is why focus is being shifted away to other things such as SSD and standardizing 4k (although, I think the less expensive Xbox model releasing that's 4 TF will be a 1080p version of the Series X, hence why it needs less power- games on that really WILL look the same).

I still think the consoles will do well, especially at launch (even Wii U sold out at launch), but I also think it's going to be a harder sell for the masses this gen. Because while there are advancements and advantages, they're not as immediately apparent. SSD is nice (believe me, I know, I have 10 TB worth of SSD on my gaming PC), but is it enough to compensate for the lack of wow factor due to games essentially looking the same? I'm not so sure.

With most games being cross gen for the next year or two, are people really going to want to drop $500 so they can play Call of Duty that looks basically the same as on the console they already own? Idk. I mean, many will regardless, but the bulk of sales over time are from more casual gamers. Is the negligible graphical increase enough for them to want to upgrade, especially in an economic downturn and when the games are releasing on the console they already own?

Maybe. But if so, I'd still think itll be a slower adoption rate. It's also worth noting that PS/Xbox combined sold about 170m 6th gen, about 170m 7th gen, but less than 150m this gen. And that was with the mega-flop Wii U not eating up any marketshare, either. Traditional console sales seem to be in a decline. That may also factor in over time.

As for Switch, it hasn't been affected thus far and it will likely remain that way. That said, Nintendo will need a strong 2021 regardless based on the fact it'll be entering year 5.

@JaxonH TBH, I'm only getting it because of the games. If the PS5 launches with Horizon Zero Dawn 2, I'm there day one.

SSD is nice as well, shorter load times is promising. And I am curious about the new PS5 controller. If they are pushing haptic triggers and sticks, then surely HZD2 will make use of the gyro as well. Can't force a third party dev, but I hope that at least all of the first party devs are on board. Days Gone has it as well, so that's a sign I think.

And PSVR2, but I think that's still a year away.

@ralleydefault - Why would Nintendo knock off $50-$100 off a console that just sold 21m units this past fiscal year? Highly unlikely, a price drop for the Switch is the furthest thing Nintendo would consider this Holiday season.

@Octane
Does Days Gone use gyro? I just ordered it in a sale after cancelling my preorder once I heard about the Last of Us 2 nonsense. Figured it would be a good alternative.

But had I known it had gyro I would have bought it day one. That's awesome

@JaxonH I think it will come down to the games. If Sony releases stuff like Horizon Zero Dawn 2, God of War (reboot) 2, Spider-Man 2 as PS5 exclusives I think PS5 will do very well meanwhile if "Playstation Studios" is a sign for more PC ports of Sony exclusives, I think it will drive more people to the Switch + PC combo.

As for Series X, that July event needs to be insanely good for it to stand a chance but Microsoft benefits from the Switch + PC combo anyway.

@Grumblevolcano
Maybe. Their games sell well but aren't the kind of console drivers Nintendo's are. Most are in the 10 mil seller club, which is great, but that's like 10% of their base, and most their games appeal to the same group. Compare that with Switch, for example, where 50% buy Mario Kart.

I think the group that buys for their games, even if they release on PC and a portion of them decide to go PC instead (I'm one of them), it just won't be enough to put a major dent in overall performance. Simply because the overwhelming majority buy for 3rd party.

Not to mention they have stock issues.

@JaxonH While 3rd party will always be the big thing for Xbox/PS/PC, it's price and exclusives that distinguish between them. Those who just buy for 3rd party games, they'll just pick the cheapest option which I'd guess will be Series S (my guess for the consoles is Series S is cheapest, Series X is most expensive, PS5 in between the two). But those who buy 1st party and 3rd party games will have the exclusives decide.

Because they're going up against two new consoles, like it or not. They're still competing for space during a crowded holiday season. And because for exactly the reasons you stated: Switch is selling well and it's been on the market for a few years now, they're well over the point that they're profitable on hardware. Briefly lowering the price during the busiest shopping season of the year to get more people into their software is a no-brainer. They'll knock 50 bucks off Switch or Switch Lite during the holiday season, and/or they'll offer a bundle. Guaranteed. Save this spot.

We can all armchair quarterback stock issues and such, and trust me, nobody takes this pandemic more seriously than I do. But the reality is that it's the beginning of May, and we have no idea what manufacturing and stock may look like come October through December.

Back to PS5/Series X, @JaxonH is exactly right. The graphical jump just isn't there. More worrying, nor are the cool ideas for games, it seems. It will take a few years for the new consoles to start getting games that show true graphical upgrades, but my PC still blows both next-gen consoles out of the water. As @Octane said, some other tech like the SSD will be nice, though. I'll probably pick up a PS5 after a year if Sony keeps coming up with their usually good exclusives.

Oh I don't know about Series X being the most expensive. Word round the campfire is that Series X might be targeting a price point of $400 and $250-$300 for the Series S. Well, depending on how much weight and value you put on Michael Pachter's opinion anyhow. That rumor could be nothing more than MS baiting Sony to reveal the PS5's msrp ahead of schedule.

@Octane Gyro isn't popular with the Playstation crowd, and Sony probably knows it. So I'm not expecting gyro aiming support for HZD2.