Echoes may be special cause variation though, seeing as it wasn’t a new mainline entry. But we’ll include it anyways just for the sake of thoroughness.
Mean release date for NA is March 16th. Mean release date for EU is May 8th. Mean release date in the west across both regions is April 12th. Since we do not know if the data is normally distributed, we will use a rectangular distribution where each date has an equally likely chance as the next, and center at the mean of the 2 range extremes, which is March 28th. The full width from one extreme release date to the other is Mar 28 +/- 52.5 days. So if we take half of that +/- 1 day, we’ll have the 51% probability, or close enough anyways. Which is saying it’s more likely than not to fall in that range.
That range puts us at March 1st to April 24th. We are more likely than not going to see Fire Emblem Three Houses release in that time span. Of course, this analysis could be flawed due to information we’re not privy to. If Echoes was special cause, and they don’t go for global release, Three Houses is almost certainly going to have a higher probability of releasing in February in NA. But... we just don’t know. And because we don’t know we have to assume every day is equally as likely as the next, within the range of prior outcomes.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
@JaxonH I'd say the chance of a global release is incredibly high. Nintendo doesn't do many staggered releases at all these days, plus the lack of a region lock means people will download it from the other shop if they don't. That said, May seems rather likely to me right now. And because your data doesn't take into account the fact that release dates are picked relative to what other games are arriving that year and only has three data points, it's rather suspect unfortunately.
Fire Emblem expo is May 4th(in b4 Fire Emblem x Star Wars) so it could still release the same month. Regardless, I still think it'll meet the Spring 2019 window which ends June 21st.
@Matthew010
LOL
The Kingdom Hearts Switch covers were very convincing. 😊
Oh, on year 2019 Nintendo will sell 32 GB cartridge for developers so Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 HD can be compressed and fit enough into 32 GB cartidge.
@Anti-Matter I'm hoping if all the Final Fantasy re-releases sell, well, Square Enix will port Kingdom Hearts 1, 2 and 3 to the Switch, and maybe some of the other games too (like Dream Drop Distance HD).
@Matthew010
SquareEnix SHOULD Release Classic Final Fantasy games in physical.
Imagine FF VII, IX HD with Switch cover.
Also, FF III, IV HD from IOs Should be on Switch once again.
For FF I & II, SquareEnix can use the PSP version, upgrade into HD 1080p with some 3D effect and FMV from FF I & II PS1.
I could Die in happiness if FF VIII also on Nintendo Switch + in Physical.
@link3710
That’s true, global releases are more common.
And ya, it’s not nearly enough data to draw any reasonable conclusion from. Sometimes you just have to work with what you’ve got 😊
It all depends on how you look at it. Half the western release dates were May, and it was the most recent three. That’s a really good argument to say the game might come in May.
Or we could just say hey, it’s almost certainly likely to fall between February and May- all six of those western release dates fell between that range. And really that’s not that wide of a time range. Talking a three month span.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
Anyone watching the kinda funny game showcase? Any fans of the messenger (looking at you Liam Doolan) , a new expansion coming to switch for free in 2019!
Reggie’s response when asked about Persona 5 for Switch
You know, I can’t comment on that. Again, from our perspective, we’ve been clear. We want all the best content on our platform. All the best content, all the best developers. And so our job is to continue growing the install base for Nintendo Switch to drive engagement of our players, to grow the audience. As that happens, then developers see the opportunity
Sounds like exactly what Reggie would say when something is true but he can’t say. Like cloud saves. You have to do an IF THEN approach. IF it weren’t true, THEN what would his response be? It wouldn’t be that, of that I’m certain.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
So the Fighters Pass seems to be promotion of new games for Switch, the difference being that people didn't expect Persona to come to Switch outside of maybe the Persona Q spinoffs.
@subpopz
Well, saying a game is coming, at any time, always increases Switch appeal.
So why then don’t they just announce every single game that’s in the works that’s on the way, right here and now and be done with it?
And I think the answer to that is that, while yes it would increase Switch appeal, you can strategically announce it at a better time and increase the sum appeal even more. Otherwise all games would be announced the minute they were conceived and we would go years without hearing of anything new.
I imagine there are many possible reasons to announce it later. Just like Skyrim, which even after we saw the footage in the Switch reveal trailer, they still refused to confirm it. They plan certain dates and events to announce things and they just don’t announce them before that date and time. Right now they can generate a lot of excitement and speculation with Joker, and that speculation about the game coming will only drive more curiosity and excitement on top of the excitement from Joker in Smash. And then at a later time they announce the game and generate even more excitement, and use it to help perhaps fill the announcement slots for a Nintendo direct, because they know they have to have a few announcements every few months to keep the excitement going. So strategically placing those announcements spread out evenly, is more effective than announcing things the minute the public suspects a game might be coming
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
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