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Topic: So NX Is A Home Console Afterall?

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skywake

Sorry for the massive wall of text guys......

Therad wrote:

In fact, the growth of ios and android gaming revenue grew more than the entire worth of the portable market. And this is excluding ad-revenue. http://toucharcade.com/2015/06/11/mobile-games-revenue-3ds-pl...

In that article you linked to? Portable gaming revenue isn't down year on year. We aren't arguing here whether or not Nintendo should dip its toes into mobile or not. We're arguing whether Nintendo should or should not drop portables entirely. A market which they dominate. Nintendo had $5.5billion of revenue in 2014. How much of that do you think was 3DS given that it sold a good 3x as many units as the Wii U? In hardware and software.... I think it's pretty clear-cut.

Therad wrote:

Also, your tie-in ratio shows that not only has hardware sales gone down since the DS, game per console has also gone down. Which means the total number of sold games has gone down.

I thought you said it wasn't an important number? Anywho, I think it's interesting that you're jumping on the fact that the 3DS is one game short of the DS' EOL tie-ratio with presumably at least a good year left in it. At least. All I'm going to say is that if it was the insane decline you claim it is then why is the tie-ratio even in the same ballpark?

Therad wrote:

Nintendo could also bring 'premium' content to the mobile. They might not be as big as the next Zelda, but they could and should produce bigger things than what you are saying. Other companies have been putting out bigger games successfully. Xcom for example, it has a price of 19.99 and it has been a success. I am quite sure that for example pokemon is a bigger franchise than xcom, which could rake in some cash on mobile. It seems like a good fit.

Most of the successful games on mobile are free to play. They're all at least built around the idea that you're playing them without buttons. I think it's highly unlikely that a game like Pokemon would make more money on mobile than it is on the 3DS. And call me stubborn but I don't care because nothing will ever convince me that games like Smash Bros should be on mobile. Nothing. I don't care what your great industry buzz-o-meter says. It's a bad idea.

Therad wrote:

So, you are saying nintendo should make 100 mil games? I am not sure why you think the most expensive game of all time is a good example of what you are saying. Nintendo wants to lower costs and scrapping the research on hardware side of portable is one way to do it. The mobile platforms are proven and stable. They will not flop over night, which a new portable might do and it is easier to find programmers who known the platform. It is all about risk mitigation.

Dude, please. Are you even understanding my point here? Read what I'm responding to. I'm not talking about GTA I'm talking about cross-platform development and how it's not developing the entire game again. Rockstar spent six years on GTA 5 and they have it out for 5 platforms. Nintendo spent three years on Mario Kart 7.... and then another three years on Mario Kart 8. You can't tell me that if they built an ecosystem of products that they couldn't have one Mario Kart on both in four years. If they made more games with that sort of approach they'd have more time on their hands for other content. Games that aren't the same games every generation.

Therad wrote:

I don't think nintendo has that kind resources to do the unified platform you want. Remember, Nintendo is a small company.

See this is how I know you don't understand what I'm saying. The reverse of what you're saying is true. They need to develop for both portable and home consoles in parallel precisely because they're stretching themselves thin. Games are getting bigger and in the face of that Nintendo is one of only a few development studios that develop their games for one platform. And it's stupid because they have two platforms. Smash Bros did well, they could do more of that if their platforms weren't so far apart. It's not a hard concept.

Therad wrote:

No, I am saying it doesn't make business sense to continue with portables, since it is a shrinking market. I don't think an successor to 3DS will ever be as successful as 3DS. And the conclusion then becomes NX will probably be an home console. Btw, 3DS might make a profit now, but I wonder how much it has made if we also subtract the development cost for it. I wouldn't be surprised if it is mediocre from a business perspective.

Well I'd argue that businesses are about profits. The portable arm of Nintendo is currently their most profitable section and has been for a long time. Since they entered the video game business if I was to take a guess. The fact of the matter is that mobile gaming is a new piece of the market and something Nintendo should get into. And they are. But not at the expense of the most profitable part of their business.

And your obsession with where mobile sits is I'd argue a bit odd. Do you not realise that the 3DS launched after the iPad? That after the iPhone launched the DS sold another 100mill units? This idea that mobiles will kill portable gaming is old. And for sure, it has eaten into portables. No doubt. But the 3DS is still doing pretty fantastically. Mediocre? Well compared to the DS a lot of things are. Compared to every platform Nintendo has ever released other than the DS? It's doing pretty well.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Therad

skywake wrote:

Sorry for the massive wall of text guys......

In that article you linked to? Portable gaming revenue isn't down year on year. We aren't arguing here whether or not Nintendo should dip its toes into mobile or not. We're arguing whether Nintendo should or should not drop portables entirely. A market which they dominate. Nintendo had $5.5billion of revenue in 2014. How much of that do you think was 3DS given that it sold a good 3x as many units as the Wii U? In hardware and software.... I think it's pretty clear-cut.

But still, the growth YoY of mobile revenue is 2-3x bigger than the total handheld gaming market.

But their game sales were not 3x as big. In fact, 149,941'' Yen vs 84,742'' Yen.

Do anyone know if Nintendo has recouped their R&D cost of the 3DS?

skywake wrote:

I thought you said it wasn't an important number? Anywho, I think it's interesting that you're jumping on the fact that the 3DS is one game short of the DS' EOL tie-ratio with presumably at least a good year left in it. At least. All I'm going to say is that if it was the insane decline you claim it is then why is the tie-ratio even in the same ballpark?

Of course it might jump up with one game. And it might not. They will also sell more 3DS during that time. But still, since they sold more DSs and they sold more games per unit, the market has shrunken considerably. And we haven't even looked at sonys handhelds during this time.

But this is still a non-issue. What we are talking about is the shrinking market for handheld. Because it has shrunk considerable. And mobile gaming continues to soar. Granted, most don't earn any or very modest profit on mobile. But it is Nintendo we are talking about. The company with some of the biggest gaming IPs in the world. They will earn money.

skywake wrote:

Most of the successful games on mobile are free to play. They're all at least built around the idea that you're playing them without buttons. I think it's highly unlikely that a game like Pokemon would make more money on mobile than it is on the 3DS. And call me stubborn but I don't care because nothing will ever convince me that games like Smash Bros should be on mobile. Nothing. I don't care what your great industry buzz-o-meter says. It's a bad idea.

Don't put words in my mouth. This isn't even close to what I have said.

skywake wrote:

Dude, please. Are you even understanding my point here? Read what I'm responding to. I'm not talking about GTA I'm talking about cross-platform development and how it's not developing the entire game again. Rockstar spent six years on GTA 5 and they have it out for 5 platforms. Nintendo spent three years on Mario Kart 7.... and then another three years on Mario Kart 8. You can't tell me that if they built an ecosystem of products that they couldn't have one Mario Kart on both in four years. If they made more games with that sort of approach they'd have more time on their hands for other content. Games that aren't the same games every generation.

Basically, what you are saying is that they should have a unified operating system*, a common API to use for different programs and common tool chains. I agree that it is cheaper when it is in place. But this takes time to implement. The problem is that I don't have that confidence in Nintendos platform building. They simply don't have the resources to do this. They are not google, microsoft or apple. Nintendo is a small company. My division at work is bigger than the entire company.

And if they want to do this, they shouldn't be doing this by themselves. They should adapt an existing platform if they want to do this (i.e android). This would be cheaper. An even cheaper option is to drop handhelds and focus on console. Then they could give the console the focus it deserves.

*And when I talk about OS, I talk about the OS, not the GUI (menus and stuff). Which is a pretty common misconception.

skywake wrote:

See this is how I know you don't understand what I'm saying. The reverse of what you're saying is true. They need to develop for both portable and home consoles in parallel precisely because they're stretching themselves thin. Games are getting bigger and in the face of that Nintendo is one of only a few development studios that develop their games for one platform. And it's stupid because they have two platforms. Smash Bros did well, they could do more of that if their platforms weren't so far apart. It's not a hard concept.

But having the same game also translate to lesser sales. For example, I love DKCr. And I want it on 3DS, but I can't justify buying the same game again and again. Had it been DKCr2 I would have bought it instantly. And a multiplatform title will always, always take more time to develop.

The concept is super-simple. Every computer engineer knows this. Then the deadlines set in...

skywake wrote:

Well I'd argue that businesses are about profits. The portable arm of Nintendo is currently their most profitable section and has been for a long time. Since they entered the video game business if I was to take a guess. The fact of the matter is that mobile gaming is a new piece of the market and something Nintendo should get into. And they are. But not at the expense of the most profitable part of their business.

And your obsession with where mobile sits is I'd argue a bit odd. Do you not realise that the 3DS launched after the iPad? That after the iPhone launched the DS sold another 100mill units? This idea that mobiles will kill portable gaming is old. And for sure, it has eaten into portables. No doubt. But the 3DS is still doing pretty fantastically. Mediocre? Well compared to the DS a lot of things are. Compared to every platform Nintendo has ever released other than the DS? It's doing pretty well.

Yes, I realize that things happened in that order. But this has nothing to do with the recent explosive growth of mobile gaming. Which can be attributed to better and cheaper phones. The first iphone didn't even have an app store. It isn't a static platform as 3DS, it is a constantly evolving platform. With backwards compatibility and you don't have to re-buy every game when you upgrade.

Their entire yearly sale with 3DS hw/sw combined is less than what GTA V earned at launch. But everything is relative of course. I jest, but if they want to be a global player they have to step up their game.

It hasn't just eaten into the market of handhelds, it has eaten into everything. Console, PC and other entertainment.

Do you think that handheld gaming will ever reach DS-levels again? Do you think there is room for a new handheld to grow the market for handhelds? Do you think that everyone that bought a 3DS will buy a new dedicated handheld?
I think the answer to all of those are 'no'. But of course, this is, as everything else I have said, pure speculation.

Therad

skywake

@Therad
Look, it's pretty simple. The 3DS is still more profitable for them than the Wii U is. The DS was more profitable for them than the Wii was. And your only counter to that point is to cite some un-sourced, out of context figures which, I assume, are comparing Wii U software revenue to 3DS. Right? Trying to shut down my point that it's "about 3x as much".... by showing that it's "only" about 2x as much..... thanks for agreeing with me there I guess....

And we're not talking about them moving some content to mobile here because they are already doing that. What you're suggesting is that they should abandon portables entirely. Despite the fact that it has been consistently and remains the most profitable part of their business. Even in the face of the rise and rise of mobile. I'm not in denial of the obvious fact that mobile has taken some of the pie. There's a good argument to be had that it has halved the market. But that's half of a multi-billion dollar industry that Nintendo has a monopoly on. It's not a ball-and-chain.

As for your disagreement on the idea of them doing multi-platform games for both portable and non-portable? Well just from the user side of things they already do this. We even got two basically identical versions of Smash Bros recently and both versions did pretty damn well. The idea that this would eat into their sales is bull. The reverse is true because the only reason people buy platforms is for content. The more content, by whatever means, the bigger the install base. If they could streamline the development of games they already make for both? They'd have more time for other content. Extra content? More sales.

And your bit about software development, if you are a software engineer I assume you've heard of the mythical man-month? You keep talking about how Nintendo is a "small company" but the truth is that extra hands don't automatically speed up development. The fact is that Nintendo takes the same time to develop two entirely different Mario Karts for two systems as a company like Rockstar takes to develop a game like GTA 5 and then port to five systems. I doubt that has much to do with the number of people working on it. I see no reason why Nintendo shouldn't be able to instead make one Mario Kart and release it on both in 4 years rather than 6. I'm not saying it'll be a big red "make other platform" button. I'm saying that it'll be less time then making the entire game again from scratch.

Lastly the bit I said about some games not being appropriate for mobile? Well you had a go at me for putting words in your mouth there because presumably you agree with me that it's a bad idea. The fact of the matter is that if they did abandon their portables and put those games on mobile a lot of them would be the worse for it. So why would they do that? They're making money from portables and you're saying they should devalue their product? That this will somehow magically get them more sales? I doubt it. It's one thing to experiment with that stuff and decide what works and what doesn't. Get it wrong sometimes. Its entirely another to throw in the towel and make a Smash Bros with on-screen buttons.

Do I think that handheld gaming will ever be as big as it was with the DS? Probably not, the DS was lightning in a bottle. Do I think there is room for a new handheld to grow the market? Well I think the same thing that has always happened will happen. When a new piece of hardware comes out people will buy it and put their old device on the shelf to collect dust. Whether it grows the market or not is beside the point. It will make money.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Kuhang

skywake wrote:

@Kuhang
I've said it repeatedly, they're definitely working on a new home console. Without a doubt. I've never said they aren't. And whatever the NX is I highly doubt that the Wii U will still be around by the time the calendar clicks over to 2019. I've been saying that since before the codename NX was even uttered. But the 3DS hardware is far more out of date than the Wii U and none of what has been said confirms what the NX is. He didn't say "NX is a home console", he said "our next home console and that’s another element we’ll be talking about much later". All I'm saying here is that the hardware they talk about in 2016, the "NX", that could well be a portable system.

It's a similar deal with the Metroid bit. They said they'd take three years to develop a Metroid and therefore if they started now it would be for NX. People assume that must mean that the NX is a home console. But they forget where portables are headed. In the late 90s the Gameboy was an NES in a world of N64s and PS2s. Their next portable? The games could potentially be as big as they were on the 360. And as hard to develop. That's how far we've come. Why wouldn't a next-generation portable Metroid take three years to finish? And if that's where we're at they better be working on an ecosystem rather than just one platform.

And I've been saying it repeatedly that i'm not ruling out a handheld but just that NX is leaning more towards being a Home Console. Whatever is it the successor to Wii U or 3DS their predecessors will stick around for a few years more that's a definate because Nintendo would be stupid to abandon the large user base of Wii U and 3DS while they build the Userbase of their respective successors, with that said 2019? No way. Indies and some titles like Rodea may still be hitting but Nintendo will pull the plug long by then. Nintendo just doesnt have the resource to support 4 platforms, infact 5 with mobile platforms into account. Doesn't really matter if the 3DS is getting outdated when it is outselling Wii U week in week out by a large margin. Profit is what matters if 3DS sells solid for like an eternity they'll keep that system all along and 3DS is still selling well. It may be in a decline but that's because portables are in a decline as a whole with mobiles and tablets replacing them for many, but with Wii U's situation Nintendo have been in Panic mode right from their 1st year. They're sticking with Wii U because that is the wiser decision for the long term having learnt lessons from Sega. You are right Reggie didnt say NX was a home console but atleast we've got dots to connect when he has mentioned things like NX and Home Console but a handheld is nowhere to be seen in here, not talked or mentioned anywhere so why are you forcing the idea of a handheld. With that said I'm not ruling out a handheld like i've said before just that everything is pointing towards a home console, we'll talk handhelds when it come into the picture. I know they have told Metroid may take three years or more but that doesn't explain nothing or anything cuz it doesn't have to be a launch title for whatever the next console cuz they can tease the game for the console or early footage and gameplay and release it in the next 12 months. And I totally don't think this is the reason people are asssuming NX is a home console cuz it makes no sense. Atleast for me this is not a factor.

Kuhang

Nintendo Network ID: Kuhang

Therad

skywake wrote:

@Therad
Look, it's pretty simple. The 3DS is still more profitable for them than the Wii U is. The DS was more profitable for them than the Wii was. And your only counter to that point is to cite some un-sourced, out of context figures which, I assume, are comparing Wii U software revenue to 3DS. Right? Trying to shut down my point that it's "about 3x as much".... by showing that it's "only" about 2x as much..... thanks for agreeing with me there I guess....

And we're not talking about them moving some content to mobile here because they are already doing that. What you're suggesting is that they should abandon portables entirely. Despite the fact that it has been consistently and remains the most profitable part of their business. Even in the face of the rise and rise of mobile. I'm not in denial of the obvious fact that mobile has taken some of the pie. There's a good argument to be had that it has halved the market. But that's half of a multi-billion dollar industry that Nintendo has a monopoly on. It's not a ball-and-chain.

As for your disagreement on the idea of them doing multi-platform games for both portable and non-portable? Well just from the user side of things they already do this. We even got two basically identical versions of Smash Bros recently and both versions did pretty damn well. The idea that this would eat into their sales is bull. The reverse is true because the only reason people buy platforms is for content. The more content, by whatever means, the bigger the install base. If they could streamline the development of games they already make for both? They'd have more time for other content. Extra content? More sales.

And your bit about software development, if you are a software engineer I assume you've heard of the mythical man-month? You keep talking about how Nintendo is a "small company" but the truth is that extra hands don't automatically speed up development. The fact is that Nintendo takes the same time to develop two entirely different Mario Karts for two systems as a company like Rockstar takes to develop a game like GTA 5 and then port to five systems. I doubt that has much to do with the number of people working on it. I see no reason why Nintendo shouldn't be able to instead make one Mario Kart and release it on both in 4 years rather than 6. I'm not saying it'll be a big red "make other platform" button. I'm saying that it'll be less time then making the entire game again from scratch.

Lastly the bit I said about some games not being appropriate for mobile? Well you had a go at me for putting words in your mouth there because presumably you agree with me that it's a bad idea. The fact of the matter is that if they did abandon their portables and put those games on mobile a lot of them would be the worse for it. So why would they do that? They're making money from portables and you're saying they should devalue their product? That this will somehow magically get them more sales? I doubt it. It's one thing to experiment with that stuff and decide what works and what doesn't. Get it wrong sometimes. Its entirely another to throw in the towel and make a Smash Bros with on-screen buttons.

Do I think that handheld gaming will ever be as big as it was with the DS? Probably not, the DS was lightning in a bottle. Do I think there is room for a new handheld to grow the market? Well I think the same thing that has always happened will happen. When a new piece of hardware comes out people will buy it and put their old device on the shelf to collect dust. Whether it grows the market or not is beside the point. It will make money.

The mythical man-month is about software projects,not companies. Adding more people to a project will delay the project if it is late in the cycle.But adding 2 new development teams would actually improve their line-up.

Btw, the absolutely easiest way to go multi platform is using an establish game engine. Not building 2 consoles from scratch. If this was their goal, they should be looking at android, which has already solved many of the issues they would face. And it has good support from game engines.

How would releasing a new portable improve the situation? Remember, releasing a new console is always risky. People are not always upgrading, sometimes they jump ship and buy something else that fulfills their needs. A new portable would probably never reach the same heights as the 3ds since a tablet can be had for less than the price of a portable. If they did pour those resources into the home console, it has a bigger chance to succeed.

Therad

skywake

I'm.... only going to respond to parts of that. So much waffle.

Kuhang wrote:

with that said 2019?

I didn't say 2019. I said that whatever the NX is they will have something to replace likely both the Wii U and 3DS before the calendar ticks over to 2019. What I'm saying is that they release one of them in either late 2016 or late 2017 and the other in either late 2017 or late 2018.

Kuhang wrote:

Doesn't really matter if the 3DS is getting outdated when it is outselling Wii U week in week out by a large margin. Profit is what matters if 3DS sells solid for like an eternity they'll keep that system all along and 3DS is still selling well.

If they were to replace the 3DS they'd open themselves up to new content. Content that would allow them to hold ground. If hardware being seriously out-of-date didn't matter at all then we'd still be playing original Gameboy games. It will be replaced one way or another.

Kuhang wrote:

You are right Reggie didnt say NX was a home console but at least we've got dots to connect when he has mentioned things like NX and Home Console but a handheld is nowhere to be seen in here, not talked or mentioned anywhere so why are you forcing the idea of a handheld

Because as you said, there's no way they're going to abandon portables.

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

skywake

Therad wrote:

The mythical man-month is about software projects,not companies. Adding more people to a project will delay the project if it is late in the cycle.But adding 2 new development teams would actually improve their line-up.

And I'm talking about individual products. Specifically the fact that this "they have less people" isn't relevant. Throwing more people does allow them to do more things at once but it doesn't magically reduce the amount of time it takes for them to finish a single project. That's the point. Again, one of their teams spent 6 years developing two Mario Karts. From scratch. For entirely different platforms. You can't tell me that a port takes the same amount of time as developing the game from scratch does. Which is why I pointed to Rockstar as an example of how third parties are able to make games that are MUCH bigger in the same amount of time and then release on 5 platforms.

Therad wrote:

Btw, the absolutely easiest way to go multi platform is using an establish game engine. Not building 2 consoles from scratch. If this was their goal, they should be looking at android, which has already solved many of the issues they would face. And it has good support from game engines.

Except they've been building new consoles "from scratch" for decades. And every time they've build their new portable so its easy to move games from the previous portable. More recently they've been doing the same with their home consoles. All I'm saying is that for their next two tiers they do the same within the generation.

Therad wrote:

How would releasing a new portable improve the situation? Remember, releasing a new console is always risky. People are not always upgrading, sometimes they jump ship and buy something else that fulfills their needs. A new portable would probably never reach the same heights as the 3ds since a tablet can be had for less than the price of a portable. If they did pour those resources into the home console, it has a bigger chance to succeed.

Again, because a portable console fills a need that can't be addressed by tablets and phones. You're not going to be able to play Smash Bros on a phone. They've explicitly said that their aim with mobile is not to simply release their existing games as they are. And you say that people are not always upgrading but the 3DS is basically five year old hardware at this point. Risk? Well what would be more risky? Doing things that have been and remain to be the foundation of their business? Or gambling it all on an entirely different set of consumers?

I'd argue that if they were going to abandon one of their dedicated platforms it would be the home-console tier. If they were to do it. I personally doubt they would do that and nothing they've said would suggest they are. But if they were to drop one? That'd be it. Not their portable tier.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Kuhang

Kuhang wrote:

skywake wrote:

Doesn't really matter if the 3DS is getting outdated when it is outselling Wii U week in week out by a large margin. Profit is what matters if 3DS sells solid for like an eternity they'll keep that system all along and 3DS is still selling well.

If they were to replace the 3DS they'd open themselves up to new content. Content that would allow them to hold ground. If hardware being seriously out-of-date didn't matter at all then we'd still be playing original Gameboy games. It will be replaced one way or another

That was an example, not that hard to understand but just for fun yeah if the original gameboy were still selling like hot cakes we would still have them around infact other competitors would be making similar products.

Instead focus on other things that matter I'll break it down for you.:
And I've been saying it repeatedly that i'm not ruling out a handheld but just that NX is leaning more towards being a Home Console. Whatever is it the successor to Wii U or 3DS their predecessors will stick around for a few years more that's a definate because Nintendo would be stupid to abandon the large user base of Wii U and 3DS while they build the Userbase of their respective successors.

3ds is still selling but with Wii U's situation Nintendo have been in Panic mode right from their 1st year. They're sticking with Wii U because that is the wiser decision for the long term having learnt lessons from Sega.

You are right Reggie didnt say NX was a home console but atleast we've got dots to connect when he has mentioned things like NX and Home Console but a handheld is nowhere to be seen in here, not talked or mentioned anywhere so why are you forcing the idea of a handheld. With that said I'm not ruling out a handheld like i've said before just that everything is pointing towards a home console, we'll talk handhelds when it come into the picture.

I know they have told Metroid may take three years or more but that doesn't explain nothing or anything cuz it doesn't have to be a launch title for whatever the next console cuz they can tease the game for the console or early footage and gameplay and release it in the next 12 months. And I totally don't think this is the reason people are asssuming NX is a home console cuz it makes no sense. Atleast for me this is not a factor.

Edited on by Kuhang

Kuhang

Nintendo Network ID: Kuhang

skywake

Kuhang wrote:

yeah if the original gameboy were still selling like hot cakes we would still have that around infact other competitors would be making similar products.

But it wouldn't be still selling like hotcakes. That's the point.

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Kuhang

skywake wrote:

Kuhang wrote:

yeah if the original gameboy were still selling like hot cakes we would still have that around infact other competitors would be making similar products.

But it wouldn't be still selling like hotcakes. That's the point.

Yes exactly. It wasn't selling like hot cakes that's why it was time to replace it. Because if it were they'd have kept no matter what because it brings money and that is what matters to a company and in this case the Wii U isn't selling whereas 3DS is still selling. The 3DS is still bringing them lots of money so there's no hurry. Ofcourse it will get replaced sooner or later, in this case later. That was the point.

Edited on by Kuhang

Kuhang

Nintendo Network ID: Kuhang

skywake

@Kuhang
You do realise that Pokemon launched in the west right at the tail end of the Gameboy right? It was having some of its best years when it was replaced. They didn't replace it because sales were down, they replaced it because the tech was old. When I first saw the GBA in 2001 I was blown away by how much better it was than the original. How many new types of games it could have on it. I saw Mario Kart and it was immediately obvious why they needed a new Gameboy.

Same story with the DS. The DS wasn't replaced because the sales were horrible. I remember around 2008 having the same discussion we're having now about the 3DS with a friend. I argued that they could improve on the DS quite a bit with a brand new portable, give it a 16:9 top screen, put more power behind it, release in maybe 2010. He wouldn't have it and argued that the DSLite couldn't be improved. That you don't need extra horsepower or a bigger top screen because portable games don't need it. But when they showed what the 3DS could do? Well it was obvious... and it had nothing to do with sales numbers.

Again, the only reason you think the NX must be a home console is because of the Wii U's sales. What I'm saying is that there is far more they could do with a portable hardware revision. Sales mean far less when they're releasing new hardware than the extra potential a revision can bring. If anything the reverse is true, good sales are a reason to invest more heavily in a product tier

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

SCRAPPER392

The way I see it, NX could be something that adds more funtion to the Nintendo device ecosystem, a PS Vita TV type thing, or all of that(which is the most likely, IMO).. They already said Wii U wasn't going to be replaced when they first announced it, so that's why I think it will add the QOL non-wearables, or stream other things like multiple GamePads or more 3DS connectivity. It could be any of those things.

Wii U already has good enough specs to get games running that look just at home as they would on Xbox One and PS4. Nano Assault Neo, Fast Racing Neo, Balance Touch!, Kirby, Smash Bros, etc. good looking titles are still considered 8th generation material by logical standards. There literally isn't any reason to replace Wii U if titles of that kind of quality are still happening on it. Indies are still a big thing, so it's still even less necessary to release a new console, in that regard, so ya.

Edited on by SCRAPPER392

Qwest

3DS Friend Code: 4253-3737-8064 | Nintendo Network ID: Children

Kuhang

skywake wrote:

@Kuhang
You do realise that Pokemon launched in the west right at the tail end of the Gameboy right? It was having some of its best years when it was replaced. They didn't replace it because sales were down, they replaced it because the tech was old. When I first saw the GBA in 2001 I was blown away by how much better it was than the original. How many new types of games it could have on it. I saw Mario Kart and it was immediately obvious why they needed a new Gameboy.

Same story with the DS. The DS wasn't replaced because the sales were horrible. I remember around 2008 having the same discussion we're having now about the 3DS with a friend. I argued that they could improve on the DS quite a bit with a brand new portable, give it a 16:9 top screen, put more power behind it, release in maybe 2010. He wouldn't have it and argued that the DSLite couldn't be improved. But when they showed what the 3DS could do? Well it was obvious... and it had nothing to do with sales numbers.

Well you have Legend of Zelda U as Wii U's could be swansong wats a game supposed to do with this? The gameboy numbers had started take a dip I think with all theose redesigns, also the thing is DS was never supposed to be a replacement for gameboy. Nintendo wanted to expand with it but also they knew gameboy will not keep selling forever that's why the third pillar thing as a security. They probably wanted to keep it as long as possible because it was still selling but the crowd flocked to the DS and the Gameboy sales took a dive and eventually got killed. But the point is not this we're going off.

Kuhang

Nintendo Network ID: Kuhang

Therad

skywake wrote:

Therad wrote:

The mythical man-month is about software projects,not companies. Adding more people to a project will delay the project if it is late in the cycle.But adding 2 new development teams would actually improve their line-up.

And I'm talking about individual products. Specifically the fact that this "they have less people" isn't relevant. Throwing more people does allow them to do more things at once but it doesn't magically reduce the amount of time it takes for them to finish a single project. That's the point. Again, one of their teams spent 6 years developing two Mario Karts. From scratch. For entirely different platforms. You can't tell me that a port takes the same amount of time as developing the game from scratch does. Which is why I pointed to Rockstar as an example of how third parties are able to make games that are MUCH bigger in the same amount of time and then release on 5 platforms.

Therad wrote:

Btw, the absolutely easiest way to go multi platform is using an establish game engine. Not building 2 consoles from scratch. If this was their goal, they should be looking at android, which has already solved many of the issues they would face. And it has good support from game engines.

Except they've been building new consoles "from scratch" for decades. And every time they've build their new portable so its easy to move games from the previous portable. More recently they've been doing the same with their home consoles. All I'm saying is that for their next two tiers they do the same within the generation.

Therad wrote:

How would releasing a new portable improve the situation? Remember, releasing a new console is always risky. People are not always upgrading, sometimes they jump ship and buy something else that fulfills their needs. A new portable would probably never reach the same heights as the 3ds since a tablet can be had for less than the price of a portable. If they did pour those resources into the home console, it has a bigger chance to succeed.

Again, because a portable console fills a need that can't be addressed by tablets and phones. You're not going to be able to play Smash Bros on a phone. They've explicitly said that their aim with mobile is not to simply release their existing games as they are. And you say that people are not always upgrading but the 3DS is basically five year old hardware at this point. Risk? Well what would be more risky? Doing things that have been and remain to be the foundation of their business? Or gambling it all on an entirely different set of consumers?

I'd argue that if they were going to abandon one of their dedicated platforms it would be the home-console tier. If they were to do it. I personally doubt they would do that and nothing they've said would suggest they are. But if they were to drop one? That'd be it. Not their portable tier.

No, but you are going to be able to play smash bros on their home console. Phones has replaced gaming-on-the-go. The portability becomes less of an issue in nowadays. It is not a 1:1 replacement, in the same vein as GC to Wii to Wii U is 1:1 replacements. Some of their franchises will be impossible to translate to Mobile, some will need minor adjustments and some will work better on touchscreens. They have more franchises than Smash bros you know.

I will argue that apple and google are bigger competitors in the mobile space than microsoft and sony are in the console space.

Therad

skywake

Rather than retreading the same stuff again here, some interesting somewhat-relevant translated stuff from their recent investors meeting. The one that was on today and these are not the official translations. I copy/pasted the tweets from someone who was translating it as they were listening to the live event:

  • Entertainment has value, centering on dedicated platforms. Providing premium experiences only available on such devices
  • Card-based and yarn amiibo and NFC dongle for old 3DS and 2DS being released. Looking to increase demand.
  • About DeNA, starting smart device apps this year. Smart devices different from dedicated consoles, so even w/ same IP, adapting play styles to suit smart devices will maximize value and drive the expansion of the gaming population.
  • Making progress with QOL

Short versions of the Q&A answers to questions we'd care about:
Q1 answer: We believe download versions have the same value and should be priced the same [...] We plan to provide some benefit with the new membership service starting in the fall

Q3 answer: Looking back, the DS didn't sell very well right away, but was propelled by Brain Training. Ideally sales would start well, but only Wii has really done that. NX was announced as a new platform alongside the DeNA venture. The NX was announced then to indicate that we are not retreating from game platforms and will continue the hardware business. New proposals require surprises to follow. Such information on the NX won't be announced until 2016. No announcements today. [...] Third-party hardware selections are based primarily upon install base numbers. Several unannounced collaborations with 3rd-parties are making progress.

Q6 answer: (Miyamoto) Regarding E3, what you said is partially true. It's available on the Internet, so it's a global announcement. [...] This year's announcements didn't include licensee software, so the number was low. This criticism is understood. Sony and Microsoft had many announcements of future titles that were not playable. VR lined the floor as a dream exhibit. There were lots of video demos of those titles. Nintendo played them. They received high praise as living room game consoles. (Iwata) As Miyamoto said regarding short-term E3 announcements, we decide this on a yearly basis. We talk about future titles when needed. There are years when products are more finished and we can communicate their appeal. That may explain the difference this year.

Q7 answer: We can't talk about the NX. If we do, competitors may take our ideas and customers won't be surprised. This would not be beneficial for the company or its shareholders. The NX is new hardware, and will start from 0. However, the 3DS and Wii U have install bases. Immediately cutting off SW for previous HW upon the release of a new machine is inefficient. We will continue making 3DS/Wii SW while preparing for the NX. We are prioritizing satisfying customers who purchased the Wii U.

Q8 answer: Smart devices include phones and tablets, which have large global install bases. Profits on big hits are very large. However, this isn't an easy world in which just adding famous Nintendo characters will result in a big hit. As for monetization, there are regular sales and paid items or "free to play" systems. I don't think that "free to play" is a good word, so I call it "free to start." Regular sales aren't succeeding. Apps for smart devices are highly competitive, and priced low. Some are discounted 90%. As for free to start, it's possible to sell better progress rates or rare items. It's becoming a societal problem. We're targeting a wide audience. Domestically, there are highly profitable apps that charge very high prices from a few users. Globally, there are more that charge small prices to many users. Nintendo wants to make many apps that are global hits. We're planning titles for this year and next, but not a large number of them. Console SW have big impacts on release, & slow down.

Q12 answer: We do not disclose individual Virtual Console sales numbers, as there would be no end to them. Virtual Console releases require testing, checking for present-day issues, and other various work. It's not that we don't want to put in the effort, but there's new SW development, so we can't use our limited headcount just on old products. With a few exceptions, we have the rights to Nintendo titles and can release them, but negotiating 3rd-party SW isn't easy.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

skywake

And I shouldn't need to point this out but....

@Kuhang Q3 is the official Nintendo response to your argument
@Therad Q8 and that bit about "premium experiences on dedicated platforms"? Same deal

Me personally? The answer to Q12 is the one I don't really like..... outsource it please....

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Kuhang

skywake wrote:

And I shouldn't need to point this out but....

@Kuhang Q3 is the official Nintendo response to your argument
@Therad Q8 and that bit about "premium experiences on dedicated platforms"? Same deal

Me personally? The answer to Q12 is the one I don't really like..... outsource it please....

This is some interesting Q&A from the Investor's meeting. I had already read this earlier today and wanted to post this here but since u've done it, That's great. But not really Q3 doesnt clear anything. But I love the fact how now they are openly calling the NX being a hardware. Initially with them only telling it was a platform got me worried. Cuz then it could've been anything.

"The NX is new hardware, and will start from 0. However, the 3DS and Wii U have install bases. Immediately cutting off SW for previous HW upon the release of a new machine is inefficient"

Like I told you that they will not abandon the Large Install base of the two predecessors at once because it's foolish financially.

"We will continue making 3DS/Wii SW while preparing for the NX."

This line here is interesting. The tone here is as if the NX were ro replace both Wii U and 3DS and the whole scratch from 0 thing with a new concept gets me thinking if NX is a Hybrid but also at the same time gets me worried thaf if it is a hybrid Nintendo won't be able to deliver a true Next-Gen console.

Kuhang

Nintendo Network ID: Kuhang

Therad

@scar: they usually don't replace consoles outright, they phase them out gradually.

Q3 actually hints that Wii U will not take off if you apply that reasoning to Wii U. Basically, Wii U has had good games come out, and it hasn't taken off. Or do you think sales will pick up speed because of any of the coming titles?

Q7 is interesting, why would they want to satisfy especially Wii U owners in a question about NX? But they also mention 3DS, which actually hints to the fusion projects people have talked about. And if that is true, then both consoles are being replace.

Q8 I read into as they want to have a more steady resource stream, since they talk about SW sales slow down on dedicated HW. This certainly doesn't disprove my theory that NX is a home console. And certainly doesn't disprove that they have franchises that could do well on smartphones. My bet is that at least one of the 5 games they have planned is pokemon. Which could slot very well into a free-to-play model.

And what was the questions? they say at least as much as the answers.

Therad

skywake

@Kuhang
All they're saying is that they won't immediately cut off software support for Wii U or 3DS when the new hardware comes out. Because they never have. The rest of what they're saying is really just confirmation of stuff they've already said. Most of it stuff that I've been trying to explain to both of you guys in this very thread.

You seem to think that they've basically confirmed that it's a new home console based on the fact that they're only talking about Wii U. However in this investor's meeting they, again, made a point of not telling us anything. And when talking about the NX they talked about it in relation to the DS, Wii, Wii U and 3DS. So it could be either. And I wouldn't take that as confirmation that it's somehow both. I mean really.

Then the second bit I was pointing out was in reference to comments by @Therad. This theory that Nintendo going mobile means they're going to drop portables. But again they're talking about mobile in the same terms they always have. Iwata even without me knowing what he was saying made the same points I was. About how most successful mobile games are free to play. That most of Nintendo's IP won't translate as is. And again how the NX announcement was Nintendo coming out to say that they're not pulling out of dedicated hardware just because they have mobile software.

Therad wrote:

And what was the questions? they say at least as much as the answers.

I didn't post the questions because they're just questions, you can probably get a good idea of what they were based on what they said in response. For example the one where you're freaking out that they mentioned the Wii U?
Q7: "As a game fan, I'm worried about the split between the NX and Wii U"

... so perhaps you should be freaking out about the fact that he immediately brought up the 3DS

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Kuhang

skywake wrote:

@Kuhang
All they're saying is that they won't but off software support for Wii U or 3DS when the new hardware comes out. The rest of what they're saying is really just confirmation of stuff they've already said. Most of it stuff that I've been trying to explain to both of you guys in this very thread.

You seem to think that they've basically confirmed that it's a new home console based on the fact that they're only talking about Wii U. However in this investor's meeting they, again, made a point of not telling us anything. And when talking about the NX they talked about it in relation to the DS, Wii, Wii U and 3DS. So it could be either. And I wouldn't take that as confirmation that it's somehow both. I mean really.

Yes I know it's not a confirmation on anything but I'm a Graduate in Journalism and there's this saying "To Make it in Journalism, One Must Develop a Nose for News" and that's a Journalist's instincts u know

Edit: I'm not saying it is definately a Home Consoles but that things are pointing toward it being a home consoles. And that point stands.

Edited on by Kuhang

Kuhang

Nintendo Network ID: Kuhang

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