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Topic: Place your bets ladies and gentleman: Is the Nintendo Switch going to be a succes?

Posts 1 to 20 of 100

DJaa

I get that this is a nintendo forum and most would at least WANT the nintendo Switch to be succeful, but will it actually though?!?! HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK IT WILL SELL?!?!

I'm gonna say it's gonna do gangbusters.

Ok but for real i'm gonna say 12 million by 2018. What do you guys think tho?!?!?!

Edited on by DJaa

DJaa

rallydefault

@Whitewatermoose
The frustrating thing here is, you people are never happy. What have you guys been moaning about for the last 4-5 years in terms of famous franchises? Let's refresh your memory: mainline Zelda game, a 3D Mario game in the vein of 64 and Sunshine, Metroid, StarFox, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, F-Zero. Those are the big ones. Now, let's be rational. Look at what is already happening:

-We got StarFox on the WiiU this year. Say what you want about it, but we got a StarFox game.
-The next mainline Zelda game is coming to the Switch on launch day
-Mario Odyssey, which has been confirmed by Miyamoto to be for the "core" gamer (his words, not mine), is slated for Holiday '17 on Switch; all signs point towards a structure much like 64 and Sunshine
-Mainline Fire Emblem game confirmed for Switch in 2018

3 of the biggest Nintendo games you guys have been wanting for the last 5ish years have been fully confirmed for the Switch in just the last 8 days.

And yet you still complain.

Yes, we haven't heard anything official about Animal Crossing, F-Zero, or Metroid yet. But the Switch information stream is far from over. They still have weeks to reveal stuff. The Fire Emblem Direct demonstrated that pretty well this week, wouldn't you say?

And secondly, we have E3 coming shortly after the Switch launch, which is the more typical time of year for games to be revealed. You're losing sight that we're in the middle of what is usually a pretty dry season for gaming. The only reason we're getting all of this is because of the Switch launch, which is pretty exciting.

My bottom line: Most people will never be happy, even when given exactly what they've wanted. Oh, and my reoccurring theme: Modern consumers have outlandish expectations.

Edited on by rallydefault

rallydefault

LzWinky

Problem is that most of the market who wants the big Western devs already have a PS4 or Xbox One, so chasing after that market will be quite foolish. They need exclusives more than Call of Duty.

Current games: Everything on Switch

Switch Friend Code: SW-5075-7879-0008 | My Nintendo: LzWinky | Nintendo Network ID: LzWinky

skywake

@rallydefault
We also got Fast Racing Neo on Wii U and now Fast RMX on the Switch. People complain that we don't have an "F-Zero" but really, who cares? It's not like F-Zero is a character driven game. If you ask me we've already got everything we could ask for from an "F-Zero" out of that game.

Just like people asked for a new 2D Metroid over and over again. But they ignore all of the indie games out there. A big example being Axiom Verge. Basically everything you could want from a 2D Metroid game even though it's still technically not Metroid. And yes it'd be nice to get a new 3D Metroid along the lines of Metroid Prime. But still. Content along those lines does exist.

The only thing I don't really agree about is Animal Crossing. A game that I'm pretty sure we will see on the Switch sooner rather than later. Nintendo really do need to have something to say about that game. The minute they announce it? Switch sales are going to kick into another gear. In terms of sales it's more important than Mario or Zelda. People are right to demand that game and Nintendo should be listening.

anyways, on topic? I think ~10mill in the first year is a reasonable prediction. But I could see it potentially pushing closer to 20mill if they have something like Animal Crossing and Pokemon in the second half of the year. Assuming they can keep up with the demand.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Grumblevolcano

I'd need more info to make a conclusion. Specifically things like whether the online multiplayer is really as backwards as Reggie said, whether the game lineup is really as barren as it seems, etc.

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

skywake

@Grumblevolcano
Well obviously it's a guess still, I thought that was the point? We won't know how well it does with any kind of certainty until it's actually out and we see the response. But it is possible to make some guesses based on previous platforms.

For example, global sales for the last two generations of consoles after the first full year:
PS4: 16mill
Wii: 16mill
3DS: 15mill
DS: 13mill
PSP: 12mill
XBOne: 9mill
360: 7mill
PS3: 7mill
Vita: 4mill
Wii U: 4mill

So when I say I think 10mill in the first year is reasonable and it could potentially push closer to 20mill? I mean that I expect the start to be as good as the XBOne but that it could get closer to the 3DS. If I was pushed to guess I'd say 13mill. As an educated guess. If its much less than 10mill by March 2018 we're going to be asking questions I think

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

erv

It'll hit 10 million before this year is over, and have 40 million before it's three years old.

Before this one is somewhat deprecated at age 4 the ecosystem has 60 million.

Switch code: SW-0397-5211-6428
PlayStation: genetic-eternal

Nintendo Network ID: genet1c

DJaa

I think a lot of naysayers don't realize, but Nintendo has really gotten it's marketing act together. I'm gonna be honest Nintendo's marketing had been aaaawful throughout the 3ds and Wii U era.

A lot of things may have changed since then. Nintendo has embraced social media and learned how to get the most out of that, and also embraced mobile as its new marketing platform next to television now.

Nintendo has always had strong marketing, they were just late in adapting to new trends I think. It goes without saying that nintendo may have already set out its marketing plans for the switch. It has been strong already with its first reveal, and I predict its going to be even stronger. Pokemon and Mario on mobile have already done their job in reaching new people with the IP. Next fire emblem which will do the same again. I think Nintendo's strategy are going to be veeery effective and once again others will follow suit.

Nintendo is using smartphone wisely. Ofcourse making money from the efforts is welcome, but I think the brand marketing side is something that's going to make Nintendo a very popular brand again.

Edited on by DJaa

DJaa

GrailUK

Pleeease...I am begging. Someone tell me what the heck gangbusters is. I appreciate it means a lot, but taken at face value it makes no sense!

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

jump

GrailUK wrote:

Pleeease...I am begging. Someone tell me what the heck gangbusters is. I appreciate it means a lot, but taken at face value it makes no sense!

Ther term gangbusters comes from ancient Egypt where Cleopatra and Abraham Lincoln teamed up to stop a gang led by Jim Moriarty from stealing the treasure of Ra in the East End Pyramid on 43rd street, the actual amount was a gold coffin worth 5 billion Egyption dolla-dolla.

So the Switch will sell that much.

Edited on by jump

Nicolai wrote:

Alright, I gotta stop getting into arguments with jump. Someone remind me next time.

Switch Friend Code: SW-8051-9575-2812 | 3DS Friend Code: 1762-3772-0251

DJaa

Couldn't have explained it better myself. Gangbusters bruh; that's all you need to know.

DJaa

Octane

@faint 12 million in its first year? That's pretty decent actually.

Octane

GrailUK

Ok, so I think the Switch will sell somewhere inbetween Gangbusters and Blockbusters. 40 mil lifetime.

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

Ralizah

I think that, with its already superior confirmed first party support and portability, it'll easily outsell the Wii U. Will it outsell the Gamecube, N64, etc. though? No idea. Depends on how many dumb decisions Nintendo makes. It has an AMAZING concept here, but who knows what they'll actually do to capitalize on it?

For the moment, I'm happy with what I've seen, but they really need some big reveals at E3.

Currently Playing: Advance Wars 1 + 2: Re- Boot Camp (NS)

Farmboy74

To help sell the Switch to the masses, it's going to need a full blown Pokemon game for it alongside all the other titles mentioned so far. Nintendo need to keep Monster Hunter exlcusive to Nintendo hardware and if need be pay developers for system exclusives. Getting games like FIFA, NBA etc on it as well will help. Also for Christmas 2017, whatever Star Wars game is being produced needs to be on the system to tie in with episode 8

Farmboy74

Honelith

It'll sell like crazy in Japan for sure and the rest of the world like their portable gaming, hence the success of the 3DS, even with its low spec screens and weak performance it still had great support from just about every developer who will now look at the Switch with its much higher specs and a rather delicious looking screen and it's easily going to outdo the 3DS.

Honelith

Switch Friend Code: SW-0658-7331-4900

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