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Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

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BruceCM

Still potentially plenty of time for another on Switch but as long as MK8D keeps selling so well .....

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MarioBrickLayer

I think there is a possibility of Mario Kart 9 on the switch, but if it comes, I doubt it would be before 2022. I think we'll see Mario Odyssey 2, Metroid Prime 4 and Zelda BOTW 2 between now and summer 2022 (at the latest) so maybe Mario Kart 9 could be the holidays/Christmas release of 2022?

I think (hope!) we'll see a Pikmin 3 and Mario announcement in the next 2-3 months, but it won't be a Direct, I think it will follow the same format as Paper Mario. It will be interesting to see if they announce all the mario stuff in one go or not, assuming they want to confirm Odyssey 2 is real + all the 3D games being ported, that could be 1 or 3 separate communications.

Is it too much to hope for Pikmin 3 + Mario + the Metroid Prime trilogy to all be confirmed before the end of summer for 2020 releases?!

MarioBrickLayer

kkslider5552000

I honestly think Mario Kart 9 is gonna be some cross-gen game. Taking their time and having one for the launch of the next console simultaneously makes more sense than just having a 2nd Mario Kart on Switch.

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Bolt_Strike

@Grumblevolcano Mario Kart Tour is a mobile game that reuses assets from other games and doesn't exist on Nintendo hardware. It's a side game for the series. There's been other such examples in between mainline entries, namely the GP games which released as arcade games which released either the same year as or the year just before a mainline Mario Kart entry (GP 1 released the same year as DS, GP 2 released the year before Wii, GP DX released the year before 8, and GP VR released the same year as 8D).

Development wise, the regular 2 to 3 year schedule implies that they probably work on the next game as soon as the previous game releases. Tour probably did not take them 2-3 years of work, and they probably have ideas that can only be done on the Switch. So they probably started on 9 in 2017, and at that point and from then even up until now, it couldn't release for any console but Switch.

Furthermore, if 8D was intended to be the sole Switch Mario Kart experience, why hasn't it received DLC and updates? Surely the definitive entry in one of their highest selling series would receive significant support in regards to updates and DLC, right? We've seen other multiplayer focused heavy hitters like Smash Ultimate and Splatoon 2 receive constant updates for years, so if 8D is all we get, they would surely have more to add to the game after launch to get people playing, wouldn't they? 8D seems to just be a way for them to squeeze extra profits out of 8 because the Wii U flopped, nothing more. They just took the existing assets, added a few more extras, and plopped them on the Switch to get more sales. I don't think they consider 8D to be the definitive Switch Mario Kart experience and the insane sales is just icing on the cake for them, I think the true Switch Mario Kart game is still coming.

So yeah, I almost guarantee you the Switch is getting a 2nd Mario Kart game regardless of 8D's sales, and the timing would have it release this year.

Edited on by Bolt_Strike

Bolt_Strike

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StuTwo

@Bolt_Strike wasn’t ARMs made by the MK team? That’s 2-3 years spent making something original.

(not to mention just about every internal team pulled on MK8 - including Retro who are now busy with something else)

StuTwo

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Grumblevolcano

@Bolt_Strike ARMS is probably why. Look how Splatoon 2 content stopped as a result of Animal Crossing (same team), similarly the Mario Kart team worked on ARMS then Mario Kart Tour and I'd guess they're currently on something else for ARMS.

If the ARMS fighter in Smash isn't Spring Man (I don't think it will be Spring Man), I'm not sure why an ARMS character would be added to Smash other than for promo reasons. If it does end up being Spring Man, Fighters Pass 2 would likely be a case of promoting assist trophies to playable status.

Grumblevolcano

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MarioBrickLayer

@Bolt_Strike Mario Kart is a major Nintendo franchise, given we know Metroid Prime 4 and Zelda BOTW2 are in development and Odyssey 2 seems on the cards for the near future, I just can't see them releasing Mario Kart 9 anytime soon, if they did they wouldn't have any major releases for late 2022 onwards - assuming we get the other major games before then.

MarioBrickLayer

Bolt_Strike

@StuTwo @Grumblevolcano ARMS released at the same time as 8D, and is probably part of the reason why we got a port instead of a new game (or more likely, they decided on a port and had more time to do something original like ARMS). It's unlikely their next project is ARMS 2, though, ARMS sold decent but not great numbers so it's probably less of a priority than Mario Kart. ARMS 2 can wait for the Switch's successor more than MK9.

@MarioBrickLayer BotW is probably a 2021 release at this point with the game being a huge investment and Coronavirus potentially interfering with development. Odyssey isn't even confirmed yet, so that's probably 2021/2022. Prime 4 restarted development in 2019, so it's not coming until 2022 at the earliest. Possibly even 2023 if Coronavirus affected things as well. There's also Pokemon games on a yearly basis. By 2023, some of the IPs releasing last year and this year should be due for new entries anyway, and the Switch's successor will probably release about then as well. So based on what we know about the schedule and development patterns, I think the schedule will look something like this:

2020:
2D Metroid
3D Mario remasters
Mario Kart 9
Pokemon SwSh Expansion Pass bundle (full game + Expansion pass content)

2021:
BotW2
Kirby (maybe a 3D game? Kirby's been dormant for longer than usual)
New Pokemon game (DP remakes?)
Fire Emblem

2022:
Mario Odyssey 2
Pokemon

2023:
Prime 4 (Switch, potentially cross gen title)
Pokemon (Switch? Pokemon tends to lag behind in next gen transitions)
2D Mario (Switch successor)
Mario Kart 10 (Switch successor)
Splatoon 3 (Switch successor)
Yoshi (Switch successor)
Smash? (Switch successor)
Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Switch successor)
2D Metroid (Switch successor)

That would be a very packed first year if this turns out to be correct, much like the Switch's first year. In fact, I'd probably want some of these spread out to 2024. So I wouldn't worry too much about what's happening that far down the line. They'll probably have something.

Bolt_Strike

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BabyYoda71

I don’t see any Nintendo Directs, Mario Directs or Directs of any kind happening until September at the earliest. I do think the Mario Remaster announcement will come in late June, but not in a Direct.

Heigh Ho Heigh Ho. It’s off to work (from home) I go.

NotTelevision

I don’t see a port of a Mario/Zelda game being the big Nov.-Dec. release. Unless it is a big remake like we saw with Link’s Awakening. But even a remake of something like Mario 64 would feel like a step backwards from Odyssey. It doesn’t seem like something Nintendo would do. They’d likely remaster those older games with some QoL improvements as with the DS-3DS remasters of their N64 games.

If BOTW 2 was slated for a early 2021 release, then I’d think they’d want to move that up to Holiday 2020, and get the hardware and software sales post Thanksgiving. Have the 2D Metroid and No More Heroes 3 come out during Sept.-Oct.

Jan.-Feb. seem like the popular months to throw 1st party ports and remasters. Not the holiday season.

NotTelevision

BabyYoda71

@Bolt_Strike I don’t think a Switch successor will arrive until early 2024.

Heigh Ho Heigh Ho. It’s off to work (from home) I go.

NotTelevision

Also if you look at the Wii, Wii U, and Switch- you’ll see a trend in console hardware innovation. A better screen, graphics, and battery would be possible by 2021 or even 2022, but I don’t see Nintendo simply doing that.

The successor to the Switch will be a portable console in the same vein as the current model, but with added motion tracking and VR capabilities. Nintendo are already looking at ways to make VR more mainstream and the sequel to the Switch will be a lightweight and comfortable way to engage with it. It’s just too expensive to make high quality VR products at this time.

NotTelevision

Bolt_Strike

@NotTelevision Nintendo might not have a choice in the matter if Xbox Series X and PS5 start picking up steam and the Switch stops getting third party support. They would have to have some kind of upgrade to continue getting third party games. VR isn't the only way they can innovate or improve gameplay, so if the price isn't cheap enough to try, they can just look towards something else.

Regardless, even if the Switch successor doesn't release in 2023, those IPs can, so if not its successor, the Switch itself could see significant support that year. The idea that their lineup would automatically be barren because they release a few heavy hitters in the next few years is faulty, they have so many development studios working on so many games that they almost always have something.

Edited on by Bolt_Strike

Bolt_Strike

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Dezzy

My current prediction is that because they're not having a Direct, we'll get another big announcement mid June. I think they'll want to wait a week or so after Xenoblade launches.

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FragRed

@MarioBrickLayer I don’t think this is happening somehow, or certainly not with a June release date. Maybe it could launch later in the year but the timing doesn’t seem right.

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BruceCM

Hmm, anything is possible but that certainly seems weird .... If it is true, it will have to be announced very soon, though, so not long until we know

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StuTwo

@Bolt_Strike with luck the MK team is doing something completely original. An ARMs brawler or action RPG or a brand new IP or something completely unexpected with broad appeal. I love Nintendo games but I don’t just want them to regurgitate my childhood in prettier graphics every 5 years.

I want Nintendo to invest in the game that could be the next Splatoon. Even if it takes 6 tries to find that game.

I also don’t think MK9 on Switch would sell 10’s of millions of units (which is the benchmark of success for that series). MK8D is enough for me on Switch and for many others. They’d do better to spend an extra 3 years making MK9 on “Switch 2” the MK equivalent of Smash Ultimate.

I’m also not certain that a “Switch 2” will hit like a new console traditionally would. Honestly I think they’ll ease into it like Microsoft is doing with the series X - with a considerable overlap in support. I’m also certain that the new consoles this year won’t impact their timing.

They are the only handheld in town. In many ways waiting a year and launching cheaper or with more power is a better long term bet.

StuTwo

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MarioBrickLayer

@FragRed @BruceCM I agree, seems odd and doubtful. I hope we see it this year. If it is true i'd expect an announcement this week?

@Bolt_Strike @StuTwo the other thing is MK8D is an evergreen title, its constantly in the top 10 sales volumes, which must reduce the priority of a quick (next 12 months) release?

MarioBrickLayer

Bolt_Strike

@StuTwo Mario Kart is one of those kinds of games that has such a broad appeal that no matter what they do, people will buy it anyway. So they'd be more inclined to give that series more support because it prints money as opposed to investing in making an IP that's the next Splatoon. It's sad, but that's the way business works. Also, a second Mario Kart game on Switch probably won't just be something similar to 8, they'd probably do something unique with it which would make a double dip of Mario Kart on the Switch more worthwhile.

@MarioBrickLayer And again, for a supposed evergreen title, they're sure not treating it that way. They dropped it Year 1 and neglected it. No DLC, no updates, no tournaments. So why ignore it for 3 years and counting if this was going to be all the Switch gets for Mario Kart? Surely they would continue supporting the game to keep its audience engaged, yes?

Bolt_Strike

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