Topic: I want the Switch to succeed but I genuinely think it will fail because of smart phones

For one thing, take a look at the PS4's launch lineup. A bunch of PS3 games, and 5 new games that no one cared about. For another, they can't release a ton of heavy hitters right off the bat. They would have nothing left for the rest of the year.

It's way too early to judge the lineup for the first year. There are a lot of games we don't know about that will be revealed in the coming weeks and at E3.

@mathoma5
I think you're judging the Switch based on the least appealing aspects on both sides. As a home console it's underpowered, as a tablet it's competing against the phone you already have, as a portable device it doesn't have the library depth of the 3DS. And if you do that of course you're going to be unimpressed. But you fail to understand the other side of it.

As a tablet it actually has decent games and decent controls. Despite all the hype of smart devices you still can't play a game like Zelda or Mario Kart on it. Because of the way those devices are used you probably never will. But you can on the Switch. Which makes the Switch have a key advantage over those devices.

As a home console it's also portable. Sure it probably won't get all of the big third party releases. But it will be able to do something that its home console competitors can't. You'll be able to pick it up and take it somewhere else. To another room, another house or wherever. That's something its competitors can't do.

Lastly as a portable system it's powerful. Yes compared to the 3DS and Vita it's expensive, bulky and doesn't have the library depth. But you can play games like Zelda:BotW on it. You can also plug it into your TV and play games at 1080p vs the sub SD resolutions of current portables. Which gives it a huge advantage.

The Switch is a category breaker and so it can't be compared in the way people usually compare stuff. It's like when the iPhone first launched. As a phone it didn't have a physical number pad. As a music player the storage was pretty lame. As a PDA it didn't have a stylus. As a camera it was very underwhelming. But it did all of those things good enough that it changed the entire category. I think of the Switch in the same way.

Does that mean it's automatically going to be a success? Well no, nothing is certain. But I think some people are incredibly focused on narrow comparisons that they can't see the larger picture.

@skywake
I'll agree there, nothing is certain and I hope it's clear that I understand my words are just my predictions and theories based on target audiences and changing times. It could prove me wrong and be successful and I honestly hope it does.

My worry is the average consumer, even the average gamer, will see it as the "new Nintendo handheld that you can plug into a TV" and write it off as nothing special. That or they'll view it as a home console that you can take portable and possibly be turned off by the price

@mathoma5
Don't underestimate the power of word of mouth. I lost count of the number of times during the Wii/DS era that I saw someone buy it after seeing it in person. For example family members who'd play Wii Sports once and got a Wii the next day. Or friends who saw me playing Mario Kart DS and just went out and got a DS. It was a regular thing.

With the Switch there's a potential for that to happen again. For example that shot in the trailer they have of someone playing on a plane. I can see that happening and the dude next to you asking what you're playing. At that point you could easily hand them a Joycon and play some two player Mario Kart. That's the way a lot of "average consumers" are going to be exposed to it. The Wii U completely failed to sell itself in that manner.

And lets be honest, the average consumer? They don't care about the graphics anyway. If they did they'd all be buying PCs and playing games on their 4K sets. But they don't care. What they'll see is a console that's priced about the same as the other boxes which is also portable. A combo deal. Now you don't have to buy a 3DS, a PS4 and a small Android tablet you can get the Switch.

@KirbyTheVampire I've seen that argument pop up a couple of times now. Not sure why. If the entire point of talking down the PS4's launch library is to make the Switch' library look better, then we should ask yourselves what we're even trying to prove here. Yeah, the PS4's launch line up wasn't stellar, but it still had more new games, and the ''bunch of PS3'' games were still new games at that time.

Anyway, that's not even the point. The PS4 had the advantage of having a great momentum going into this generation. The PS3 was their lowest selling console, and still sold 80 million units. There's was nothing to worry about. That momentum was the most important driving factor of its sales early on. Didn't hurt that Microsoft royally screwed the Xbox One's launch, and the Wii U wasn't really competition anymore at that point. I'd argue that Nintendo isn't in a similar position, far from it actually. Now, yes, their 3DS has done well, but that didn't happen either until the price dropped from $250 to $170. So I wonder how many of the 3DS owners are getting on board with the Switch at day one for $300..

@BiasedSonyFan Don't know anyone who praised the PS4's launch library. It was okay at best, it wasn't great, it wasn't bad. Was it better than the Switch? You could argue that. You can also look at the Switch and say that it only has 1-2-Switch, because Zelda is also a Wii U game, and Just Dance 2017 is also available on every almost every platform (including the Wii).

Regardless, I still stand by my argument. It's not an issue if your launch line-up isn't stellar, as long as you have the momentum from one generation into the other, then everything will turn out fine. I also argue that Nintendo doesn't have that momentum with the Wii U, and I have yet to see if the 3DS momentum carries over into the Switch, because of its price.

Also, disclaimer, I'm not arguing in favour of the OP, I don't think it'll sell Wii U numbers or below. As long as it has Pokemon and Mario it'll do alright.

@mathoma5
Like I said, I knew you were going to scoff at the idea, so I'm not really phased that you don't believe me. But just as a quick tour through recent history:

The PS4 sold on nothing.

It literally sold on nothing.

So why is the idea of a Nintendo system selling on a Zelda game so ridiculous to you?

The PS4 did not have a great game at launch, (some would argue it didn't even have a "good" game amongst its lineup), and it only had 5ish games that weren't already available on another system (including their own PS3).

The Xbox One "sold" on nothing, as well. (It's doing ok - it didn't sell like the PS4 at first, but it also didn't sell like the Wii U.)

It literally sold on nothing, yet again.

Much like PS4, it had very few games at launch that weren't simultaneously available elsewhere. Forza was probably its best launch title, and as with any racing title, that is slightly niche.

So again, I ask you: Why is Zelda, one of the biggest franchises in the history of video games, a laughable notion for you to be a system seller? The very term "system seller" is around because it IS an ever-present phenomenon in gaming.

It sold on a promise.

A promise of more, better, software to come and the promise that, as the most powerful home console ever released it would get the best versions of all the third party software to come.

The same is true of almost all other consoles in their first 6-12 months - you buy partly for the games that are there and partly for the games that will arrive in the future. The only difference is that Sony have been really good at keeping that promise with the PS4.

If Nintendo had released a super powerful home console they wouldn't have won over huge new audiences. The people who want power already have their PS4/XBOne/PC. Nintendo needed to offer something different. That was either going to be a cost efficient device with great content OR a portable device. They've done something in the middle.

The way I see it if Nintendo was going to make a PS4 clone? Well they should just go third party. Because if they're not making a console that fills a different niche what are they doing?

@BiasedSonyFan No, let's be real honest, that last sentence is absolutely ridiculous. I don't see the issue with getting third party support (see Wii U), and it looks like what the Switch is getting is either coming later, when games like Minecraft or Steep would've been perfect launch titles to beef up the sparse launch line-up, or they're skipping out on them. Yes we knew that the Switch wasn't going to run the latest AAA game that already struggles on Xbox One, but all those sports games? Racing games? Wouldn't hurt if the Switch got those. Yes, the Switch is getting FIFA (thanks to EA's ''unprecedented support''), and to be fair, it was guaranteed that the Switch would get at least one FIFA game, but what about the next one? If it could get some shooters on there, awesome as well, but I think that the more casual experiences are more important in this case.

Nintendo themselves pulled the plug on Wii U support a year or two ago, but I've yet to see evidence of the games they've been working on behind the scenes. It took EAD2 Tokyo four years to create Odyssey, so a new Mario game was expected anyway. BOTW has been held back for the Switch release. Mario Kart team has spent three years on a battle mode.. I know they're working on stuff, but this was the perfect time to show all of that and instill some confidence in their customers. Same's true for all that unprecedented third party support. Where is it? Steep, Skyrim and Minecraft will be missing launch, no LEGO Worlds announcement yet? What about Yooka-Laylee? Sure it's coming, but when? We're less than seven weeks away from launch, and it feels as if we don't even have the full picture on what the Switch itself can do. Voice chat? How does that work? What about the paid online service? It's all poor communication in my opinion. Nintendo isn't in the position to get away with a lukewarm reveal and expect everything to be okay. They expected all the Wii owners to pick up a Wii U at launch, that didn't happen either. In my opinion, they needed to pull everything out of the hat that they had. Whatever their message was, it didn't convey onto me.

Heh smartphones are the reason I keep my 3DS and the reason I'll be buying Switch. There is absolutely no experience on a phone that will replace a console for me. I tried hundreds of android titles and spent way too much money to get some non-F2P games and even if you get a full experience I somehow can't get over the fact that I'm not on a console. I bought a controller grip and then realised I basically bought a console and just gave up.
People however, are mostly tempted by quick achievements and will keep on spending dozens of dollars on stupid loot boxes just so that they can spend less time playing the game.