@HefHughner
As an example it was a poor and misleading example. Because for the thing we're talking about one option has about 30% of the profit margin of the other vs the 80% of your example. Also your example of a 10x higher volume is highly doubtful in this case where I'd estimate the volumes aren't that different. Lastly the example you used assumes that Product A and Product B are completely overlapping products. Which in the case of VC vs NES Mini clearly isn't the case.
Like I said, I don't think you have much of an argument here. Why would they kill a higher margin, non-supply constrained and more flexible model for distribution? It doesn't make sense.
Like I said, I don't think you have much of an argument here. Why would they kill a higher margin, non-supply constrained and more flexible model for distribution? It doesn't make sense.
All I used this example for was to say higher profit margin doesn't automatically mean it makes more profit. Even though I start to sound like a broken record: When the VC market is constantly declining, but the hdmi-devices sell like hot cakes, it is reasonable to look at what the average Wii U and Switch owner spends on VC (which certainly would be in decline too) vs. the profit that could be made having a whole line of hdmi-retro-consoles (more models and different collections).
What you say about digital distribution is correct. It absolutely is the ideal way of selling this product, but there are many more variables to consider. The most important one is the design philosophy of the Switch. Like i said: It seems very important for Nintendo to position the Switch on the market in a certain way. They ditched the D-Pad on the JoyCons in favor of offering a second controller, because a big part of the marketing message is local multiplayer on the go. They even already announced classic NES and SNES games would be altered to better fit the multiplayer centric design philosophy and marketing strategy of the Switch.
Thats where the success of the Nes min matters. If the VC was already in decline on Wii (which has/had a gigantic install base) and the hdmi-devices make more money than what the average person spends on VC, this could be a welcome reason to separate retro game sales from the main console, even if the most ideal way to handle this would be trying to sell both.
But you know what? Next week we will see if there is a VC and - if it's not there - maybe even get an explanation if when or how the VC or a similar service is coming to the Switch. I'd love to be wrong with all my arguments if that means I get my VC games on the new console, but I fear Nintendo has different priorities with the Switch and will use the momentum of the Nes mini to alter the way they sell retro games.
I don't think the Virtual Console is needed at launch and this is why we have not got any information on it yet. Now for the record, I want my Chrono Trigger on the go so I am desperate to know about the VC. But at the same time, I know why.
Everything Nintendo has shown so far about the Switch is essential to its success or fail. We know about the Joy-Cons. The different modes. The new Online service. The many ways that the multiplayer experience will be massively improved. But no eShop, OS or Virtual Console. So what gives?
Well the answer is simple (there are two parts to the answer). Because they are already going to be there in some form. We already know that there is an OS and it looks gorgeous. We know eShop will return but you hear no-one gasping for more information on that. And for the Virtual Console, we know there will be one already thanks to that Online service confirming retro games getting an Online play of sorts. You wouldn't get retro games supported for this without a Virtual Console to entice people to try more retro games. It makes no business sense.
So if we already know they will do one and they know we want one, why are they not revealing it? Well let's look at the Wii, 3DS and Wii U. The Wii U had its Virtual Console launched in January (soft launch) / April 2013 whereas its release date was in November 2012. The 3DS was launched in June 2011 while the release date for the 3DS was in February 2011. The Wii had it launch at release.
What does this say about Nintendo? They don't see the Virtual Console as a big reason for the success of a console at launch but rather a big reason for its success afterwards. And I can see why. We are hardcore gamers. We love the retro. But we are a chunk of the gaming community. There are many gamers who want the latest hit and not the oldest hit. Honestly, this is the correct business decision as the Virtual Console is really a support pillar to the console and not a mandatory pillar.
So when can we expect the Virtual Console to be start? I would say around the Summer period if I was to guess. And with the sheer amount of Indie titles in the first 3 months, I can believe Nintendo not having a reason to rush out the Virtual Console just yet.
@HefHughner
You keep talking about the VC as if the sales there are non-existant. But when I boot up my 3DS and check the best selling games of all time on there? This is what I see:
1. Pokemon Yellow (GBC VC)
2. Pokemon Dream Radar (eShop)
3. Super Mario Bros Deluxe (GBC VC)
4. Pokemon Red (GB VC)
5. Super Mario Bros 3 (NES VC)
6. Link's Awakening DX (GBC VC)
7. Pokemon Blue (GB VC)
8. Mario Kart 7 (Retail)
9. Super Mario Bros (NES VC)
10. Super Mario 3D Land (Retail)
11. Zelda: Oracle of Seasons (GBC VC)
12. Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (Retail)
13. Pheonix Wright (eShop)
14. Zelda: Oracle of Ages (GBC VC)
15. Smash Bros for 3DS (Retail)
16. Pokemon Trading Card Game (GBC VC)
17. Pullblox (eShop)
18. 3D Classics Kirby (eShop)
19. SteamWorld Dig (eShop)
20. Gunman Clive (eShop)
It's a similar deal on the Wii U. Even when the Wii U was getting regular retail and eShop exclusive releases games like Super Mario World and Donkey Kong Country were regularly on the top of the digital best sellers. People want these games and they're happy to get them digitally. The fact that the NES Classic Mini did well isn't proof of the VC's death. It's a sign that people are still very interested in retro games.
Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"
1. I'm not saying the sales are non-existent. All I say is maybe Nintendo gets to keep more money selling a Nes mini than the average 3DS or Wii U owner spends on VC games. In this case the Nes mini could be an alternative approach to rom selling if the VC does not fit in the Switch design and marketing philosophy.
2. Consider the context. This is not PSN or Steam. Virtual Console games do not compete with a huge amount of high quality indie hits like Rocket League, Factorio or Stardew Valley. Both 3DS and Wii U have a handful of must-have Indie titles and a lot of them aren't even Eshop exclusive, so it's no surprise the top 20 list is full of Virtual Console games. Mario and Pokemon games would probably still be top sellers, no doubt.
3. I think this discussion starts to lead nowhere. Can we agree to not agree? We will have a clearer picture next week. Hopefully you are right with everything you said and my fears and arguments are unfounded and wrong.
@HefHughner
Except there are statistics that don't back up your excuses here. Nintendo doesn't report on their exact numbers for digital sales but they do report revenue. As of a couple of years ago their digital sales were about 10% of their total sales. Which should mean that games like Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land on that list represent about 1mill sales globally. So those top VC games on the list, if this list is similar in other regions (which it is), should be well over 1mill units sold.
On the other side of the equation are the indie games. Your argument is that they couldn't possibly find their way onto this list because indie games on the eShop are low quality and don't sell as well as they do on Steam or PSN. Well consider Shovel Knight. In the US in the first month it sold 180k copies. 37% of them on Steam, 33% on 3DS, 27% on Wii U. 60k sales on the 3DS just in the US in that first month. It doesn't appear on this chart. So I think it's fair to say that all of the games on this list sold well over 60k globally.
And lastly the one that should really screw over your argument here. Some of those retail games on the list were sold as digital codes bundled with the system. Those sales are included in these lists. Given this is the Australian list? I know for a fact that the Mario Kart 7 bundle is pretty huge here. Super Mario 3D Land was not only a bundle but it was also given away for free for anyone who registered a 3DS to Club Nintendo during a certain time period. A Link Between Worlds was part of a very popular bundle with a special edition 3DS XL. The only VC game that was given away to the same degree was Super Mario Bros Deluxe. Animal Crossing was also a fairly popular bundle, it isn't on this list.
The way I see it you only want to "agree to disagree" because you know you're barking up the wrong tree here. Instead of admitting that you don't know what you're talking about? You're doubling down. Dude, it's ok to be wrong sometimes. I'm not attacking or judging you here. I'm just saying that what you're saying is a load of nonsense.
The NES Classic Mini was a novelty product which was created for Nostalgic Nintendo gamers to fill the holiday season void. But With its low price point, it managed to cater to a huge crowd that you wouldn't normally associate with Nintendo consoles. It's still supply constrained because Nintendo never anticipated the huge demand for the system. Nintendo never intended to position it as a replacement for the Virtual Console.
Nintendo rarely reveals sales data for their VC titles, but they do give highlights from time to time. We know that the 3DS rereleases of Pokemon R/G/B/Y sold a combined total of 1.5 million in under 5 weeks. With the boost it got from Pokemon Go, it may have sold 2-3 million by now. http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/160428/03.html
Even if the VC is showing signs of decline, it's still a lucrative business model for Nintendo. They would be crazy to abandon a revenue stream which offers such a high profit margin.
@MumboJumbo
The Pokemon VC games are also more expensive than regular VC releases. Using Australian prices as a point of comparison after tax they're making ~$11.80AU on those Pokemon games. Compared to the estimate I made above where they're likely making ~$1.70AU/game on the NES Classic Mini.
If the ratios translate approximately across regions? 1.5mill sales of just Pokemon on the VC is an equivalent amount of profit to 350k NES Minis. Just Pokemon on the 3DS in 5 weeks. And while Pokemon is one of the biggest VC games it's not the only game that can draw a crowd. Ocarina of Time, Super Mario Bros, Super Mario World, Donkey Kong Country, Earthbound. If on the Switch they release Mother 3 and Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal on the VC? Those games will sell.
So the idea that the VC is dead is complete BS. It's basically a money printing machine for Nintendo. Low cost, decent returns, very low risk. They'd be crazy to shut the door on that.
@tamantayoshi The Wii U didn't have that many VC games, especially when compared with the Wii. Plus the Wii U didn't launch with VC, it launched several months later so it's nothing new. I just hope Nintendo uses the time to actually make the whole thing worth while this time.
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@KirbyTheVampire it doesn't bother me much, but I would love to have most of the NES, SNES, GB/C and GBA library on the Switch asap. Those games are usually perfect for short bursts while traveling or when you just want a short gaming session between appointments. I'm not bothered by it since I'll have Super Bomberman R and Shovel Knight to fulfill that need, but I do hope we see VC sooner rather than later.
@KirbyTheVampire it doesn't bother me much, but I would love to have most of the NES, SNES, GB/C and GBA library on the Switch asap. Those games are usually perfect for short bursts while traveling or when you just want a short gaming session between appointments. I'm not bothered by it since I'll have Super Bomberman R and Shovel Knight to fulfill that need, but I do hope we see VC sooner rather than later.
Oh, for sure. Irritation is perfectly reasonable. Given the choice, I also would rather have VC at launch. I just don't really get why everyone's practically starting a riot over it.
Most of the games I bought on Wii were VC. Given Wii Sports doesn't count as it was free for everyone, the first game I bought for Wii was Mario Kart 64.
VC was a huge part of Wii for me, that said I'm not particularly annoyed with the VC situation for Switch but part of that is due to Wii U and 3DS backlog as well as the biggest point of all, the fact I have an Xbox One.
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Topic: Lack of Switch VC Info - Update: No VC at launch
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