Topic: Zelda's Wii U-Turn to NX

@LetsGoRetro:
Our "assumptions" aren't equal. You're assuming that the NX is a home console that launches in 2016 and your entire theory is based on that being true. All I'm saying is that there are a lot of ways you could be wrong which means you're probably not right. It could be 2017 launch, it could be a portable and it could be such an architectural shift from the Wii U that a quick port isn't possible. There are a lot of ways your specific prediction could be wrong.

In terms of timing I don't think you quite understood the point I was making. When I said 2016 was too early I wasn't talking about Nintendo building up hype. I was talking about the fact that a home console game requires a long development cycle. Long development cycles means a lot of people working on games. Lots of people means a very high chance of leaks. Happened with all of the current-gen consoles before their launch. Given we haven't heard much at all then there are possibilities:

• Devs have somehow managed to keep everything quiet (a miracle! unlikely)
• Nintendo isn't giving the devs anywhere near enough time for this (this is very bad news)
• It's a platform which doesn't require a huge development cycle. Like a portable system
• It's not a 2016 launch

Really? You think they'd be able to get away with lying about the system it's coming to? You honestly don't think that would have backlash from the fans?

Twilight Princess released for the Wii and Gamecube while Pikmin 3 moved onto the Wii U from the Wii. I wouldn't say it's "lying" as plans and minds can change.

I'm just saying, that if this big Wii U game that people have been waiting a long time for ends up coming to the NX, then people will start to wonder "Wait, why did I get a Wii U for this, when I could've just waited for a completely different console!? This makes me upset!"

Game companies piss off customers all the time and they are doing fine. You are making a big deal out of nothing. Besides, I doubt they would simply not release it for Wii U. Also, who among us said it wasn't coming for the Wii U anyway?

If you mean that it's as abysmal of a launch as the Wii U, you don't know that. We don't know the launch lineup. We don't know ANYTHING. Just because Zelda U might not be there doesn't mean that it can't still have a stellar launch lineup!

They can have a stellar launch with the new Zelda game...again assuming it can run the game (i.e. it's a console or a powerful handheld).

Well, here's some reasons it might not be released next year:
-Not enough time to build up hype

PS4 revealed in February, released in November with stellar sales.

-Third party developers would only have a year to develop launch titles (Do you want rushed ports!? Because that's how you get rushed ports!)

Now you're making assumptions. We don't know when they got dev kits.

So...you think that they would be stupid enough to rush a system out the door because they went into full out panic mode? I don't really see that happening. Also, WHY, exactly, does it have to replace the Wii U? Why can't it be the 3DS?

Because the Wii U is selling like crap right now and is a joke in the market to those who aren't Wii U owners.

1. But do you honestly believe that Nintendo would do something like rushing a system's release (which is a bad idea, since it can create a shoddy product) ?

Assumptions again. Do you know when development started? How are they "rushing" it?

2. Nintendo needs a return to profitability, eh? Yeah, I'm just gonna leave this here:
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-returns-to-full-yea...

Won't last forever if they don't shake things up.

3.Again, you do NOT want to piss off your customers!

By doing what?

Would it be the first time it happened? Did people not buy a PS3 expecting Final Fantasy Versus 13? Kingdom Hearts 3? The Last Guardian? Many more titles? I'm sure some people were pissed off. Let's see how it affected the sales of the PS4 so far... (Sorry for the sarcasm)

At a basic level, sure, it would probably be better for the upcoming games if they came on NX instead of Wii U. However, of course they have to keep some games coming out. If Nintendo completely released NOTHING for the system, then sure, there would be considerable backlash. Deciding to keep one game off and move it? Different story. There is a reason I continually mention that Nintendo should do this BECAUSE Zelda is it's one title with an insane amount of anticipation and hype. Relating to your point, do you remember the backlash to the e3 presentation? Metroid Federation Force, Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer. Everyone was mad that all Nintendo had to show was these little spinoff games VS the big, meaty titles. Why do you think not much was shown coming for Wii U? What's announced? Of course there are some games coming still. Games take years to make, and those games have been in development for 1-3 years, likely. I'm simply saying it makes much better business sense to take the title with the highest probability to cause buzz on a new system, and to move it there. This fact alone screams "Nintendo realizes it's more important to put it's muscle behind what's on NX than it is to keep dragging along the Wii U"

Very true, it could possibly have a stellar launch lineup without Zelda. Or it could not. Like you said, we don't know what they're working on. What we do know is that Zelda titles take very long to develop, and that whether or not the launch lineup would be strong without Zelda, it would surely be stronger WITH Zelda, right?

Fair enough. Whether or not it's enough time to build hype is debatable, though. I would argue that Nintendo doesn't feel that way for a couple reasons. One being the dang company hardly advertises anything ANYWAYS so they're not great at building hype. They're clueless apparently when it comes to that, so even if it's not enough time to build hype, that's hardly evidence that Nintendo still won't do it. However, the NX has ALREADY had a lot of hype for what, 6 months is it? What type of "hype" do you think is going to be created? On gaming sites and blogs, no? It's already EVERYWHERE, the talk of it. Find me a gaming site, blogger, etc. that hasn't talked about it a ton. It's going to be 18 months into the talk of it by Holiday 2016. That's not enough time?

1. It's not super rushed. It'll be a year short of a typical console cycle. I'm sure most consoles don't actually take 5 full years of constant development. And, if they do, again, it's a different scenario when dealing with a failing console they expected to do well.
2. Nintendo has returned to profitability, you're right. They had a rough 2 or 3 years where they weren't profitable, though. And much of that is the 3ds. Are you going to argue with me that Wii U is selling well? Come on, man. You're just disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing at this point. EVERYBODY know the Wii U is not doing well. Shigeryu Miyamoto is on record with the REASON he thinks it bombed (tablets stealing it's thunder).
3. Final Fantasy. Kingdom Hearts. Last Guardian. PS4 doing well. See above. Rinse, repeat.

I'm sure we'll get around to my points eventually. It seems like every single point made in this thread needs a paragraph long rebuttal...

Yes, I am assuming it is a home console releasing in 2016. We know it's a dedicated gaming device being announced in 2016, and my guess is that it's a home console to replace the failing Wii U. I'm sorry you don't like the assumption. You could make up 7,000 scenarios of what it could be other than my assumption, but I think it's important to look at it from a business standpoint. The Wii U needs replacing much more than the 3DS. It's pretty bad when Shigeryu Miyamoto comes out and says a reason he thinks the console failed. What exactly constitutes a new console? It's a new device that has games specifically for it, right? Well, the new 3DS is essentially that, isn't it? I'm actually really asking this as I don't do portable gaming. Aren't there certain games that play for New 3DS and not the regular one? I want to say Xenoblade for 3ds? How many games are here that only play on this hardware, if so? Can't be more than a few in this short time. So, did they go and make that to play like 4 games on it? Does the New 3DS already need an upgrade?

As far as devs not having enough time, we don't know exactly when they received the dev kits, but being as how there were rumors they were going out a couple months ago or so, that'll be well over a year by the time the NX releases. Now, as far as building "from the ground up NX exclusives", that's probably not a ton of time. But for games 1-3 years into development, is 14 months not enough to do whatever they have to do to make a Wii U version? (another general question, I'm ignorant on programming stuff). Aren't there games that are years into development and they're talking about how they're going to also start making a port for a different system. 14 months isn't enough time to do this? Going off NL, I think the binding of Isaac is a game that was finished and on other consoles and they went and made a Wii U port. If they can do it to a finished game, they can surely do it to a halfway finished, or almost finished game, within 14 months, can't they?

Sorry, but if someone says something to me, I don't like to respond with one sentence answers. I like to give reason as to why I'm saying what I'm saying. Especially in a thread where most don't agree with me, I want to show why I think what I think.

Xenoblade, Binding of Isaac, aaand.... dear god, it's the PS3 all over again. N3DS has no games. Last I saw of hardware sales, 3DS wasn't doing significantly better than Wii U.

So are we assuming Nintendo said "Let's make a new 3ds console to play Xenoblade and Binding of Isaac in the year before we reveal our new NX portable console. The must've REALLY thought those 2 games would be big sellers to go and develop essentially a new system just for them, a year before they reveal ANOTHER portable system, lol.

Lol is funny because not so far-fetched. DSi released two years before the 3DS, and by the time e3 2016 comes around, it will have been nearly two years since the N3DS was released.

Edit: also here is a list of games EXCLUSIVE to the DSi, excluding DSiware
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nintendo_DSi_games

Wow, all of 5 apparently.

@LetsGoRetro:
The New 3DS isn't a massive spec upgrade from the original 3DS. It doubled the amount of RAM and cores but it didn't do anything else. So far there is only one retail game (Xenoblade) that's taking advantage of it and even that is more a case of "we tried to fit it on the 3DS but couldn't get this working without the extra RAM". It's best to think of the New 3DS in the same terms as the N64 Expansion pack.... if that makes sense

As for the time for development cycles, rumours and release? Well lets consider how things played out for the Wii U. The first rumours for the Wii U were in 2010 when it was speculated that a "Wii HD" would come out in 2011. Also in 2010 Iwata started talking about their next home console to investors. Then about 20 months before launch? There were leaks and we basically knew everything about it. It was the same deal with the XBOne and PS4. For games of that scale we're talking ~18months for a port and 3-5 years for an original title. Which is why I think it's either a 2017 release, a portable or both.

Either that or they're just being very good at keeping quiet.... or there is literally no third party support for this thing.

Right, but was the DSi not just a redesign whereas the New 3DS is actually an upgrade that has specific games for it? There are always redesigns on system's aesthetics. I don't think I've ever seen one that draws the line "You can only play this game on the new design". I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

Lzthequack said earlier in this thread that there was an 11 month period between PS4's reveal and release. Is that true? If so, there you go. Why are we comparing it to the Wii U? 1. The Wii U was coming after an extremely successful console, whereas the NX is coming after a failure, so there's a difference. Plus, if the PS4 can do it, so can't the NX.

Ok, so for games of that scale, we're talking about 18 months for a port and 3-5 years for an original title (I'm almost positive 5 years is an extremely long development cycle for most games. Not every game is Zelda). Devs were rumored to get dev kits like, what, 3 months ago? With 13 more months to go until Holiday 2016, right? So, we're approximately covering 16 months there, making it very possible to leave them enough time to release games within the launch window. As for Nintendo? They didn't need to wait to receive a dev kit, since, you know, they're themselves, so they could have been working on any amount of titles for any amount of time. What doesn't line up?

There are 5 games that won't run on a regular DS, again, excluding the DSiware. The N3DS is as much a redesign as the DSi. They slightly upgraded and added a few features to it, nothing more. They aren't exactly pushing the N3DS as a new console, that we've only seen one retail game, so far, that will only function on the N3DS suggests that they aren't pushing it to replace the 3DS.

Ah, gotcha. Fair enough if you were to choose to believe the NX is going to be a portable. I think it's a home console, I guess possibly a hybrid. I wish I could remember the video I'm thinking of. Someone of Nintendo actually makes reference to being aware that fans have been questioning if the new Zelda title is coming to NX instead of Wii U. I don't like to bring up that point, because I can't find the video, but I know I've seen it. It was this that confirmed to me it was a home console, as I just can't imagine them saying it If the NX were a handheld.

They even say in the video that ZeldaU is still planned for Wii U, but like I said, they often say wrong things, or plans change, etc. etc.

There were pretty damn concrete PS4 rumours in very early 2012. Even at that stage we knew it would be running an AMD CPU and would be moving to x86. We knew they were working on a late 2013 release. We knew the controller would feature a "light-bar" to track the controller. It was all but confirmed that Naughty Dog were working on a game for the PS4 with some even saying that the hardware was "terrifying". That was in late 2011. We also saw this tech demo at E3 2012 and it was pretty "wink wink, nudge nudge" about what was going on. The PS4 was a secret to everyone.

Compare that to the NX which we know pretty much nothing about. We know so little that you can still make a reasonable argument that it's anything from a micro-console to a portable to some sort of next-gen beast. If it was a 2016 home console I think it's fair to assume that we'd know a lot more about it than we currently do. Because that was the case for every console of this generation. Given that we know jack? It's only fair to assume that it's probably not a 2016 home console.

So, there were rumors in early 2012, and it released in November of 2013. So, that means there was anywhere from 20-23 months between rumors an console release Well, the NX was ANNOUNCED earlier this year. So if there can be a 20-23 months between rumors-release on PS, can there not be 18 or so months from actual announcement to release on the NX?

What if Nintendo does a Direct and releases details on it in January or Februrary? People need more than 10-11 months to know what the features are of a console? You said nothing that show it could couldn't come Holiday 2016.

@LetsGoRetro:
What do we know about the NX other than the codename? Again, we were shown stuff like this at E3 2012 to get us hyped about the unnamed "next gen" systems. They did the same sort of tech demo for the Wii U. The equivalent for a 2016 release would have been E3 this year and we saw nothing. So what has been leaked about the NX?

This is litterally everything we've heard about the NX:

• It's called NX
• You can play games on it
• It has "industry leading chips"
  .........

That's it. I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that if it was what you're saying it is we'd know a lot more. Even if Nintendo wanted to keep quiet about it this close to launch it's pretty unusual in this day and age not to know anything at all this close to the release of a home console. Leaks are inevitable for something that big especially if you have a lot of people working on it. Which suggests to me that it's most probably not something that requires a long development cycle with large teams (portable) and/or it's not a 2016 release. At the very least it's surprising that we don't know more at this point if you turn out to be correct.

I've not read everything in this thread, so my opinion may simply be a repetition of others, but never mind.

If the NX comes out in 2016 (unlikely but possible), then Zelda HAS to come out on both consoles. NX will be Nintendo's priority going forward, and they'll need a big game to kickstart the system. The Wii U is a good system, really good, but it's sold awful and we all know it. If Nintendo has the opportunity to put Zelda on the NX and increase the potential install base, they'd be stupid not to. They did it with Twilight Princess, why not this? Loyal Wii U owners will undoubtedly be annoyed, but making Zelda a Wii U exclusive makes no sense; if Mario Kart or Smash Bros can't shift decent console numbers, Zelda sure as hell won't. They will however shift a tonne of NX units if it comes with a stellar launch line up, Zelda included.

I believe this theory was actually supported even more during the last Nintendo Direct. Sure, Zelda on Wii U was mentioned, but it was an afterthought. No new details, not really any new gameplay, merely a reassurance that it is still coming. When NX is revealed, Nintendo will then start to ramp up the marketing behind Zelda, and their focus will shift from the Wii U to the NX. And I sincerely hope I'm right. If Zelda releases near the NX launch, but stays as a Wii U exclusive, it'll harm initial NX sales greatly. Surely this all makes sense.

ALLRIGHTY! Get ready for the wall of text!

YES, those games were expected to be released on those systems you mentioned, HOWEVER, some of the games you've listed have been through development Hell (Which Zelda U has not been in. It was simply delayed.), and you also said this:

So...it's possible that a decision to make the game on NX and not put it on Wii U was already made? And that they're only calling it a Wii U game and making people THINK it's still being released on Wii U because they haven't talked about the NX?...that kinda does sound like lying to me.

That doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Well, technically @LetsGoRetro said that it was possible.

I never said that it wouldn't be better. Obviously it would. But that still doesn't mean that it will happen.

But we haven't heard anything about it. When Nintendo shows us what the NX actually is, they're going to have to make sure that people want it.

Alright, fair enough.

Again, alright, fair enough.

But it can result in an unfinished product. I'd rather they take their time with this to make sure it's actually good as opposed to them speeding to get it out the door just because a system isn't doing as well as you would've liked.

But that doesn't mean it HAS to be a Wii U replacement. It could still be a 3DS replacement. Or, if you're going by the rumors that it's a hybrid, BOTH!

Fair point. However, look at what @LetsGoRetro said:

He's saying that they would speed up production just because the Wii U isn't selling well. That sounds like rushed to me!

My point wasn't that the Wii U was selling well, it was that Nintendo made a return to profits.

I never said that they would last forever; I just said that Nintendo made a return to profits.

I refer you both to my previous statement at the beginning.

@NintendoFan64: I had to go eat my breakfast because your reply was so long. Interesting back and forth though