I think that's exactly the point. Nintendo knows. You don't. The vitality sensor is only the beginning. Reggie said something like "hooked to all kinds of sensors" in a recent interview. They would come up with new stuff. You didn't know they would release a balance board or a WM+ or a vitality sensor. And it might not be a peripheral. it might be new hits. Wii music Nintendo thought would sell better, the next idea might. That's what Nintendo does. And they will not release a new console (except perhaps a modified one with addons like HDD, but... I doubt it) before their competitors because they want the Wii to continue to dominate and not "lose" this generation. The truth is that the Wii hasn't lost any momentum. in fact , it only gained momentum which resulted in wii shortage again. Amazon keeps running out of wii's in stock and so do all the retail stores. Nintendo hasn't even began to exploit its franchises - it can announce huge pokemon, kirby, star fox titles... it can release NSMBW 2 and NSMBW 3 easily and then SMG3. It can announce huge new franchises as well... just look at how successful endless ocean is and that's not even a traditional game per se. Not to mention the wii fit phenonmeon, and this is before announcing wii relax and other new peripherals which i know they will announce. I can't see Nintendo releasing a new console before... maybe 2014. Business-wise there's actually no reason to do it. But remember this is only because of the competitors - if sony or microsoft or someone else decides to release a new console before then they will too... but they won't release a new console years before PS4, that will be illogical and self destructive.

ill start a different thread for this.
what book are you reading from?as i attain from KING James version.
Go to general discussion, Revelation/end of system.

but the point is that those things haven't boosted wii sales by anywhere near the amount nintendo would need to carry the system long term. again, after nearly two years in the hands of developers the motion+ has about 5 compatible games. new wii peripherals aren't the type of thing you can expect to immediately fly off the shelves when released, they need time to become commonplace in homes before good software support will come, and based on what we've seen so far, the pace developers are setting for supporting these items is a long, torturous crawl- moderate increases in sales spread over a long period is all peripherals can offer.

in my mind, a steady decline in sales over a year and half constitutes a loss of momentum. 2008 was the year wii sales peaked, and if i remember right, 2009 sales eventually fell to 50% of what they had been the year before. of course holiday sales are still going to be high, but overall yearly sales are indisputably falling as time goes on.
at the same time, PS3 sales are climbing just as steadily as wii sales are falling. within the past year we've seen both the PS3 and 360 outsell the wii in monthly sales for the first time. nintendo still has the lead for the time being, but it's eroding away fast.
read it yourself if you don't believe me:
http://www.stageselect.com/N4873-npd-xbox-outsells-wii-and-ps...
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/22031.cfm

2010 will no doubt be another wii dominated year but i don't expect 2008 levels of sales to ever come again. even with the great lineup nintendo has, stabilizing their sales and ending the downward slump throughout the year about the best they can do. i guarantee you that within the next two years the PS3 will start consistently outselling the wii, no matter what nintendo does with the system.

you say nintendo somehow loses by making a new system, but how does pitting a console that's steadily trending downward against systems that are steadily trending upward lead to victory? a new system that completely tops the current wii as well as the competition will let nintendo step right back up to #1 in sales, and because the wii will no longer a top seller by the time the new console comes out, it's not as if nintendo is prematurely cutting it's potential short. considering the falling wii sales, consistent 5 year cycle of previous systems, and the recently huge R&D budgets, 2012 is an appropriate time for a new system.

besides, when were the wii and PS3 destined to compete until the first system 'died' anyway? did nintendo ever vow to commit to wii for as long as the PS3 was being produced? i don't think they were ever equivalent consoles; they both were designed to do very different things and to appeal to different people. the nintendo attitude has been "we do what we want, regardless of what our competitors do". they obviously didn't build the wii to compete with the other systems on their terms; i'm sure they had their own time frame in mind for when to retire the wii, and i'm pretty sure the lifespan of the PS3 wasn't a factor.

Jesus Christ, Wii 2 = a Wii Redesign Console just like the DSi XL is a 4th redesign of the DS

The reason i know this is because unlike Sony who numbered there Console based on Generation Nintendo numbered there redesign Home Console just like the NES 2 and SNES 2:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Entertainment_System_(M...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Nintendo_Entertainment_Sys...

I'm pretty sure Wii will continue side-by-side with any successor console for a few years (providing the sales are there), so 2015 isn't an unreasonable lifespan for the Wii if not longer.

2012 seems like about right for when they'd release a Wii 2. Especially since it looks like we might see the DS's successor within a year or so too (maybe even the end of this year, have we heard of any AAA for the second half of this year; I know we've heard some about DS2 games in progress like Pokemon). They will need to do something to continue to stand out in a market where all consoles have some sort of motion controls (and they're exhausting their biggest franchises all this year).

I'll be a bit sad though if I don't get 2 good years out of my DSi though .

@Sean
That seems to be the foregone conclusion. DIdn't Miyamoto say something like "HD would be great for something like Metroid or Mario but for a Wii fit game it's not needed." I'm guessing you'll see backwards compatibility to encourage people to buy the new system but the Wii will still get new games. It's still working that way for the PS2 anyways, so why not? I'll just be sitting on the fence seeing if I can transfer my Wares. Both DS2 and Wii2 will be as close to day 1 purchases as possible if I can transfer my downloads. If not, it'll take some time, since I won't be able to just sell my old ones.

People buy less wii's in time because less potential population exists over time. Although amazingly, wii sold more in the holiday period than ever before. it's really dominating the sales. and you can see the npd and vgchartz month over month, except when there's a shortage. you can read about the reason for the (not really) decline of february in go nintendo blog. It was simply because of shortage. A good source is Amazon...when you see Wii selling there for $260 like it did for February, then you realize people aren't stupid and will wait for it to reach its real price again. Same with Wii fit plus still selling for $130 or so when it was supposed to sell for 89.99. The reason is that there's shortage. Nintendo can never pick up manufacturing so many wii's and balance boards because of the crazy demand.

I guarantee to you actually, that if Nintendo keep up with the amazing demand for its hardware, then not only will Wii consistently sell more than PS3 forever but it will do it by a much larger margin. All Nintendo has to do is make a compelling Wii Relax, keep manufacturing wii fit plus, make a new wii fit, release more super mario bros titles... Nintendo has this in the bag. And it can do this easily until 2014 or 2015 if it chooses. It does have other agenda though and will want to make 'hardcore' games with 'hardcore' graphics etc, and will probably make a new cutting-edge console it will seem, but it has nothing to do with sales... it's not being threatened by the other consoles in any way at the moment. the short decline was just because of shortage.

"Nintendo sold 9.6m Wiis in the US in 2009, with December being its biggest sales month ever." Best month ever. Wii is gaining momentum, not declining. And hey, this is even before a new zelda comes. Twilight princess for Wii still selling well (for $50!) and there's SMG2. SMG2 will keep selling month after months for years like Mario Kart, Brawl and SMG1.

http://blogs.ft.com/techblog/2010/02/nintendo-warns-of-wii-sh...

So tell me why should Nintendo spend a huge amount of money of a new console that will only make their crazily selling other console sell less and "lose" momentum, when they can probably cut price to $170 or $150 or even less and outsell the competition even more. Which they're doing anyway. There is no reason to do this.

The balance board is one of the best selling items on amazon. It definitely is one of the main reasons for the wii's enormous success. WM+ accessory is also one of the top 10 amazon items being sold consistently. it's that crazily popular.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames
Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board = 196 days in the top 100.
Wii MotionPlus (number 8 in the list) = 336 (!) days in the top 100.
wii sports resort = 335 days in the top 100.
and.... Wii = 1203 days in the top 100. and this is amazon. the real wii success and wii games are in walmart, target etc.

If Vitality Sensor or X new Wii peripheral is as successful as these two, it will carry for many years.... even if it won't have enough software support. You see, Wii Sports Resort WAS enough WM+ for most people in the world.

Btw, Nintendo didn't even release the Black Wii in the U.S. I'm thinking that if they sell the black console with WM+ and a game (for example - Wii Sports Resort) then this will fly like pancakes. That will alone push the logic of making a new console for another extra year or two IMO.

becuase the wii still has momentum, i'll agree that a new system now would undercut the wii. but the earliest speculated release date is about two years away; things will look very different by that time. i do still maintain that yearly wii sales will have continued their downward slope and that by then, it may feel like the wii is just beginning to struggle. bear in mind that i'm not saying the wii will sell poorly- it will still be moving good numbers, it's just that i think the competition will finally have caught up.

also, i don't think a new system means that the wii has to cease production. i can easily see it continuing production until 2015 like you say, just in the shadow of the newer system. it makes sense to me to do it that way- keeping the simpler and (by that time) much cheaper wii on the market will make it easier than ever for casual gamers to buy one. nintendo can still squeeze every penny out of the it while they simultaneously produce the newer, fancier system. i think we've argued every possible point, so from here i don't know how much speculating is left to do, but it was fun while it lasted

yeah, you're right, time will tell.. i hope Nintendo will do well for a long time. I'm thinking of buying some Ninty shares.