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Topic: Nintendo NX

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Octane

@Bolt_Strike That's what I was wondering too. If this account system releases before the NX, then I agree, it'll probably be a successor of one of their systems. I think I agree, what you're saying makes more sense after thinking about it another time.

Octane

skywake

Bolt_Strike wrote:

@iKhan Well Wii U is getting blown away even more by the lack of mainstream appeal and third party support, so financially the console sector is in more dire need of an upgrade. But I don't think it'll be just one or the other, it'll probably be something that satisfies both.

I'm sceptical about this idea that third parties would suddenly jump to support a Wii U successor just because it has improved visuals. I'm even more sceptical if said device was a "hybrid" as some are suggesting. A hybrid, because it's a portable first, isn't going to attract big third party titles. It's certainly not going to kill the Wii U especially given that Nintendo's first party content, even if they start pushing cross-play, will still look better on Wii U.

A console that tries to straddle the middle will either fail entirely or crush the 3DS.

edit: Oh, I agree. I reckon 4-5 years for the Wii U should be about right. Pushing out to six years like the Wii would be a mistake but if it's 2016 it's more like 3-4 years which is insane. Also I'm just saying that at the end of this year the 3DS will be at five years. And at five years it would be really overstaying it's welcome for a portable. Because other than the DS and original GameBoy portables have traditionally had a shorter life than the non-portables.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

renaryuugufan92

I like how people are trying to say its too soon to announce a new console especially considering console generations typically last 4 to 6 years between hardware updates.

NES to SNES: 1983-1990(Japan dates) 1985/86-1991 (US/EU)
SNES to N64 (lets remember the N64 also had development delays) 1990-1996(Jp) 1991-1996/97(NA/EU)
N64 to GameCube: 1996-2001 5 years
GameCube to Wii: 2001/02-2006 4/5 years depending on region
Wii to Wii U: 2006-2012 6 years
Wii U to NX: 2012-2016/17or18 4 to 5 years so its really average, console cycles typically last 4 to 6 years before new hardware releases, the seventh generation was slightly longer which will make this one seem shorter. Technology is moving faster and I see future generations falling into the usual 4 to 6 yr cycle. I think NX will be a hybrid console but for the sake of it lets also list Nintendos handheld history.

Gameboy to Gameboy color: 1989-1998 Gameboy had little competition and it was largly developer pleas that got Nintendo to release the GBC
Gameboy color to GBA: 1998-2001 just 3 years
GBA to DS: 2001-2004 3 years again
DS to 3DS: 2004-2011 then comes the elongated 7th generation of gaming
3DS to NX: 2011-2016/17or18 5 to 6 to 7 years in this case

Again, considering the real possibility NX will be a hybrid system

Edited on by renaryuugufan92

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renaryuugufan92

skywake wrote:

@renaryuugufan92
Look at my post on the previous page, there's a chart that allows you to visualise this much better

Untitled pic related that moment when I realize I could have just quoted you to support that, I didn't read back before replying~ XD I just returned from reading alot of its too soon rants that are all over sites that have covered this, makes me sit back and say

what? 4 to 6 years is average! XD

Edited on by renaryuugufan92

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erv

I like how these things happen as a third pillar but phase out the previous ones.

All I know is that nintendo makes most of its money through device ecosystems that provide gaming you can take with you. It has been like that for a long time and increasingly so.

So, NX seems to me like a new handheld. This time, though, I think it would stay that way. I think the home console is no longer needed as whatever is on the handheld can be expanded into the home when desired, the same way I am playing a game on my iphone which can perfectly push great visuals towards my apple tv. Save for the lack of the responsive setup as it was never meant to be that kind of thing in their case, I think that is the more likely scenario. So I’m all for speculating that it’s going to replace the 3ds, and the thing being portable. But that portability may very well also be the only nintendo gaming hardware you’ll ever need, thinning out the setup that hooks up to your living room without dumbing down that functionality.

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skywake

Here's a more complete version of the chart I posted on the last page
Untitled
this axis along this way -> shows the approximate number of times the planet known as Earth went in a elliptical motion around it's star as per the standard unit of measurement described colloquially as "years". In this particular case it is used to show the amount of time that passed between the launch date of the console on the left of the descriptor and the launch of it's corresponding successor also named

Basically the 3DS could be replaced TODAY and still have had a short but decent lifespan for a Nintendo portable. If they push the 3DS out to early 2017 then it'll have had very, very healthy life indeed. The Wii U on the other hand even if they push it out to early 2017 will have been the shortest lived non-portable Nintendo has ever made. I wouldn't be that shocked if a Wii U successor did push the limits and came out in late 2017, but even if that did happen I still think it's more likely that we'll get a portable first. I doubt that the 3DS will have a longer lifespan than the DS did.

edit: also for some details if anyone asks. I measured the NES' lifespan from the US launch rather than the launch of the Famicom. Every other platform I measured the launch from the earliest launch. I included the Virtual Boy in there because it was kinda trying to do what the DS did to the GBA. Also the light blue section on the Wii U and 3DS covers the time period from today upto Jan 1st 2017.

edit2: years

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Dezzy

skywake wrote:

Here's a more complete version of the chart I posted on the last page

That's a very interesting chart skywake. I think Polygon did a fairly similar one. But they added a bit more information to help keep us informed.

Untitled

It's dangerous to go alone! Stay at home.

skywake

yeah, yeah, labelling axis etc, etc. If you couldn't work it out yourself the X-Axis is years. I'll edit my post if it makes you feel better

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Dezzy

skywake wrote:

yeah, yeah, labelling axis etc, etc. If you couldn't work it out yourself the X-Axis is years. I'll edit my post if it makes you feel better

Lol, it wasn't a dig at you. It was a reference back to when Polygon made all of those hilarious non-graphs. Well I'm sure some people will enjoy it anyway!

Edited on by Dezzy

It's dangerous to go alone! Stay at home.

skywake

Dezzy wrote:

skywake wrote:

yeah, yeah, labelling axis etc, etc. If you couldn't work it out yourself the X-Axis is years. I'll edit my post if it makes you feel better

Lol, it wasn't a dig at you. It was a reference back to when Polygon made all of those hilarious non-graphs. Well I'm sure some people will enjoy it anyway!

I realised that, but I had some fun "correcting" my post either way

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Peach64

skywake wrote:

In a nutshell, if this is a portable they could get it out as the clock ticks over to 2016 and the 3DS would have still had a good innings. However if it's replacing the Wii U? Well even if it's in December 2016 that would mean the Wii U was easily one of the shortest consoles they've had. Perhaps even shorter than the GBA.

But it's also easily the worst selling console they've had, so it makes sense they'd want to cut it off sooner than normal.

Peach64

skywake

Peach64 wrote:

skywake wrote:

In a nutshell, if this is a portable they could get it out as the clock ticks over to 2016 and the 3DS would have still had a good innings. However if it's replacing the Wii U? Well even if it's in December 2016 that would mean the Wii U was easily one of the shortest consoles they've had. Perhaps even shorter than the GBA.

But it's also easily the worst selling console they've had, so it makes sense they'd want to cut it off sooner than normal.

What I'm saying is that you can make the case for cutting the Wii U's life short as much as you want. But if you want this thing to be a Wii U successor and NOT a 3DS successor you have to ALSO make the case for why the 3DS's should be left without a successor for that much longer.

My assumption here is that this piece of hardware announced yesterday will launch sometime between mid 2016 and mid 2017. Then the other platform would get a successor sometime after that, because they'll want some clear air. A 3DS successor in 2016/2017 and a Wii U successor in 2017/2018? That makes sense. The 3DS gets replaced after ~6 years and the Wii U after ~5. Wii U gets an average-to-short lifespan and the 3DS gets an average-to-long lifespan. The other way around I can't picture, you can make an argument for the Wii U only getting ~4 years but that's still pretty short and on the other side of things I really can't see the 3DS getting ~7.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

VanillaLake

I like the idea but it's funny that all those people that were mad at people saying that Nintendo should develop for tablets and smartphones, now they say it's a great idea. You know, kind of "Nintendo is always right whatever they do or say but people suggesting something different than what Nintendo is doing at the moment are always wrong".

About the unified/dual system, I said it, it's a great idea, much more than this 3DS-Wii U inner battle. Next generation Nintendo will likely be the king.

I really don't like the navigation bar of Nintendo Life continuously reappearing while browsing!!

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erv

skywake wrote:

Peach64 wrote:

skywake wrote:

In a nutshell, if this is a portable they could get it out as the clock ticks over to 2016 and the 3DS would have still had a good innings. However if it's replacing the Wii U? Well even if it's in December 2016 that would mean the Wii U was easily one of the shortest consoles they've had. Perhaps even shorter than the GBA.

But it's also easily the worst selling console they've had, so it makes sense they'd want to cut it off sooner than normal.

What I'm saying is that you can make the case for cutting the Wii U's life short as much as you want. But if you want this thing to be a Wii U successor and NOT a 3DS successor you have to ALSO make the case for why the 3DS's should be left without a successor for that much longer.

My assumption here is that this piece of hardware announced yesterday will launch sometime between mid 2016 and mid 2017. Then the other platform would get a successor sometime after that, because they'll want some clear air. A 3DS successor in 2016/2017 and a Wii U successor in 2017/2018? That makes sense. The 3DS gets replaced after ~6 years and the Wii U after ~5. Wii U gets an average-to-short lifespan and the 3DS gets an average-to-long lifespan. The other way around I can't picture, you can make an argument for the Wii U only getting ~4 years but that's still pretty short and on the other side of things I really can't see the 3DS getting ~7.

The main problem here is your assumption that nintendo will somehow maintain the two systems setup. I believe your timeframes are realistic and make sense, but you're forgetting that most of us aren't speculating whether or not one of them is going to replaced, but both of them. In one thing. And if not directly, than soon after.

Your case does show it's going to be a portable, and I'd join you in that bet. Beyond that, most of us are just speculating that it's likely that the nx hardware is going to be all there is - it will facilitate the living room environment just as much as any console does now, obliterating the need for dedicated hardware aka a sequel for the wiiU because frankly, the nx does that.

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skywake

erv wrote:

The main problem here is your assumption that nintendo will somehow maintain the two systems setup. I believe your timeframes are realistic and make sense, but you're forgetting that most of us aren't speculating whether or not one of them is going to replaced, but both of them. In one thing. And if not directly, than soon after.

Your case does show it's going to be a portable, and I'd join you in that bet. Beyond that, most of us are just speculating that it's likely that the nx hardware is going to be all there is - it will facilitate the living room environment just as much as any console does now, obliterating the need for dedicated hardware aka a sequel for the wiiU because frankly, the nx does that.

Well then I'll also add that this speculation about it being a hybrid console is also pretty broken. Mobile GPUs have improved but they haven't improved to the point where a $250US portable device will be able to even come close to matching what the Wii U is capable of within a couple of years. Especially if they also want to include things like high end wireless capable of transmitting HD video to a (presumably bundled) streaming box plugged into your TV. My best guess is that they might be able to do that sort of thing at a quality better than what we can get out of the Wii U by something closer to 2018-2019.... and by then they'll be able to produce a home console that could push 4K.

Even if they really, really push the hybrid device idea it will be less than what the Wii U can do. But such a device would absolutely destroy the 3DS. So even if it's a hybrid, which frankly I doubt, it's not a Wii U successor. My thoughts on the whole thing is that they'll release a portable that's impressive when compared to the 3DS/Vita but not compared to the Wii U and it'll be fairly cheap. Then the "merging" of the console/portable bit will be done in software. For example Mario Kart 9 could be cross-buy and cross-play, the same game on both. But looking fantastic on the Wii U's successor and less-so but still good and portable on your 3DS successor.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

erv

That makes sense too. However, technicalities are not nintendo's main game, and they'll likely settle for less technical prowess to get the concept working. The 1080p60 crowd will of course say it's not 1080p60, then zelda comes out and sells bucketloads anyway.

Remember, sony is bleeding money off its home consoles (although is on track to have at least the playstation division in good health by the end) and xbox's division isolated is also a money losing game. Nintendo won't compete in the money losing business by supplying state of the art tech in latest hardware, selling at initial loss, without having other profitability to depend on. Perhaps they will in this case though, what with qol and all, but that would only strengthen the likelihood of the concept becoming a reality.

The concept is technically more than reasonable, it's just not high spec competition. But that has not been what nintendo is about since the gamecube days, with good reason.

I like where this is going, actually. Lots of angles nintendo could take to surprise us, it'll be interesting to see how it will work out.

Switch code: SW-0397-5211-6428
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Nintendo Network ID: genet1c

skywake

@erv
Except I'm not saying that they should go into a horsepower arms race at all. What I'm saying is if they release a portable in the next two years or so, especially if they want it to be affordable, it won't be as powerful as the Wii U. Which means that it can't really replace the Wii U because it would be a downgrade from the Wii U. It doesn't really add up.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

TuVictus

The third pillar theory is very unrealistic. They can barely support 2 consoles at once let alone 3. Plus, remember the last 2 times they tried a ""3rd pillar" as to not upset fans of the older consoles? The GBA and DS happened. The GBA was supposed to be "complementary" to the Game Boy Color. Just like the DS was complementary to the GBA.

Realistically, whatever it is, it will replace either the 3DS or Wii U

TuVictus

cookiex

Was the DS really meant as a "third pillar"? It practically made the GBA obsolete.

Edited on by cookiex

cookiex
Self-appointed NintendoLife Hyrule Warriors ambassador

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