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Topic: The incredibly shrinking game industry - how do you feel about it?

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macarthursbark

Not only is it shrinking, it is becoming more and more Nintendo - Nintendo peaked higher and is shrinking slower. Seems like the PS2 market is getting swallowed by the Wii one. Seems like PS2 is finally dead and PSP is fading fast :

http://i.imagehost.org/0332/Nintendo_Centric_H1_2004-2010.jpg

http://i.imagehost.org/0296/Worldwide_H1_HW_2004-2010.jpg

I reckon 3DS will really help Nintendo gain even more marketshare. Should kill of PSP, and then you have DS line going budget like PS2 at the beginning of this gen, and then you have the WIi, tracking strong as always. Here is an article on it, eh? :

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/80789/2010-half-year-in-revie...

"What's interesting to me is that Nintendo is so bold. It seems that if 3D on portable devices was easy, Apple would have beat them to it...I'm not sure that this device will do much more than serve as a replacement for current DS owners." - Pachter

The_Fox

So many pointless numbers....

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Treaty of Tripoly, article 11

V8_Ninja

Roopa132 wrote:

What do you expect to happen? When a new generation starts the hardware sales go up and then they slowly go down until the next generation starts. I'm sure if you had a graph of a longer period of time it would be a wave, going up and down and up and down etc.

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macarthursbark

Roopa132 wrote:

What do you expect to happen? When a new generation starts the hardware sales go up and then they slowly go down until the next generation starts. I'm sure if you had a graph of a longer period of time it would be a wave, going up and down and up and down etc.

What did we expect to happen?

#1 - Many analysts, including the one in my signature, predicted the game market would rebound this year - it is not.

#2 - How does this bode for the 'extended life spans' of 360 and especially PS3? They were designed for long life to gain back their mind numbing losses (Presently Sony Gaming is still in the red over 4 billion since launch of PS3)

#3 - It appears that PS2 owners are not upgrading to PS3's, considering their market is shrinking as the PS2 and PSP markets continue to fade.

#4 - Despite the price cut bounce PS3 had - sales are almost flat from last year.

#5 - Nintendo is easily in the best position for success with another generation of consoles - they have made great money, have high profile brands, and can now upgrade to HD with a lot less investment than was possible 4 or 5 years ago.

Thats why I care, I guess. I guess not all thinking men can sometimes face the truth, or the Truth.

"What's interesting to me is that Nintendo is so bold. It seems that if 3D on portable devices was easy, Apple would have beat them to it...I'm not sure that this device will do much more than serve as a replacement for current DS owners." - Pachter

macarthursbark

How can the overall health of the industry be pointless to video game players? That is an outrageous statement.

Us Govt - we are broke, soicial security and medicare payments will be cut by 50%

Senior Citizen, dependent on SS and Med - 'so many pointless numbers....'

This is like saying 360 owners who do not want Kinect should not be concerned MS is going to great klengths to develope for Kniect - something has to give, correct?

Speaking of Kinect, do you think Kinect and Move can jump start the HD Twins?

"What's interesting to me is that Nintendo is so bold. It seems that if 3D on portable devices was easy, Apple would have beat them to it...I'm not sure that this device will do much more than serve as a replacement for current DS owners." - Pachter

brooks83

The game industry will be fine. Video game demand has been found to be mostly non-elastic, meaning people will buy them no matter how bad the overall economy is. Escapism, I suppose. Honestly I'm not sure what you are worried about. And hey, if the games industry does crash, we still got lots of games out there to play as it is.

brooks83

Noire

Let's go down to Ninty's headquaters and BURN them to the ground!

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nuke13

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. I am a huge nintendo fan but I remember when the N64 was coming out and thinking they would easily continue their dominance. They had won the 16 bit era afterall and their. New console was more powerful and didn't take 30 seconds to load games. Similarly who could have predicted sonys fall from market lead this generation? Another concern is online experience. These new consoles and hand helds come into a very different world then even 5 years ago and these devices must have good online capabilities. While nintendo has stated that they are making improvements, sony, microsoft and apple (increasingly a competitor) have much more experience.

nuke13

brooks83

I'm actually trying to re-read the original post and figure out what the original poster's concern is. Is he worried that the market will go away, or that Nintendo is going to be the only game company left in town? Just because Nintendo is currently the market leader doesn't mean it will always be that way.

brooks83

theblackdragon

Roopa132 wrote:

What do you expect to happen? When a new generation starts the hardware sales go up and then they slowly go down until the next generation starts. I'm sure if you had a graph of a longer period of time it would be a wave, going up and down and up and down etc.

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ItsFuzzyPickles

I don't think the gaming industry is shrinking. Microsoft's Xbox 360 sold more then it's predecessor and Nintendo is pratically dominating the gaming industry. Only Sony's console has sold less then it's predecessor.

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Oregano

The problem is a purely financial one and we're already seeing pressure on the other two. Shareholders are concerned over Kinect and MS' presence in the market, they have lost billions since entering the business and Sony has erased the profits of the PS1 and PS2 this generation and we're already seeing a change in strategy as they're not going with the usual loss leader strategy with Move, they're making a profit from day one with it like Nintendo does.

Nintendo can actually afford to launch a Wii 2 but MS and Sony kind of need to keep with the current systems to try to actually make some money, if they launched into next gen they'd lose even more money and presumably have to pull out. This is also why launching the Wii 2 might be good for Nintendo, it puts enormous pressure on the competitors.

I'd also say don't expect a PS2-PS3 style leap for MS and Sony next gen, expect them to make a Wii style leap and Nintendo to catch up somewhat. All three will want to make money from day one.

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The_Fox

I'd also like to point out that the source is vgchartz, a website notorious for its inaccuracy.

"The government of the United States is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion."

-President John Adams

Treaty of Tripoly, article 11

Raylax

Hahaha, I like this thread.

Raylax

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Reala

Nintendos market share, my feelings are I couldn't care less, owned consoles in the past that where hardly sales leaders, but still made fantastic games regardless, its the games I'm interested in not stastics, also why would anybody want 3DS to kill PSP, competition is good, especially for the consumer, PSP2 will no doubt be in the works and I wish it well, can't see how they could top 3DS, would be very surprised if they went for simply releasing a more technically powerful cosole, like last time, so could be one to watch out for.

Reala

J_K

You know that first chart showing 2010 is pretty ratty as it's only 1/2 over, yet funny enough it's nearly matching 2009 but only 4M down and 6mo to go...4M in a half year especially with Christmas that'll bend up again. The entire chart is kind of crap anyways because we're in a worldwide economic hole so of course people are spending less as late 08 is when things just began to start to melt down and 09 was when it really hit just as the curve shows. Again all the numbers in chart 2 are getting very close to the cut the systems did in the down year of 2009 and we got 6mo to go, so where's the pain? Come back in 2011 when all the data is solid and it'll be on the up...including the PSP you called out as it's not suffering, it makes money on every one sold, lots of good games going back to day one...it's Sony's N64 and Gamecube -- best system on the block, but outsold by the mass market unit (to be fair I own both DS and it, not playing favorites here.) I do have to admit the rise of the PS3 is very impressive while the 360 seems to stagnate on that chart given the time left in the year. You want to see the PSP likely suffer, wait for the 3DS to come out because if they don't drop that thing to damn near $100 or wherever their break even point is -- they're screwed.

Do yourself a favor though, vgchartz tends to be grossly off base with their data as far as US numbers go and they guess the hell out of a large chunk of it because some people refuse to give the NPD the time of day. Notably so Toys R Us, Target and Walmart won't and outside of Gamestop they're the nations largest retailers in video gaming. They're basing data off solid info and a large chunk of theoretical guesswork which is why I quit caring about that place some years ago when I learned they just bs'd the numbers.

Edited on by theblackdragon

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Infernape1000

I just care about great games being released. Anyone else?

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