Topic: It doesn't make business sense for Nintendo make a next-gen handheld

The sad reality is that mobile has take a massive chunk out of the handheld gaming industry. Handhelds still have a niche for those who want to play a more involved game with buttons, but it's only that.

For that reason, releasing a successor to 3DS basically means trying to build this niche audience from scratch in a time when it is steadily shrinking. Now, this might be a worthwhile risk if Nintendo were faced with a direct competitor, but with Sony out of the Vita business, they aren't.

What makes a whole lot more sense is for Nintendo to continue putting out 3DS software even when hardware sales stagnate. I think they can continue to milk solid software sales off that device for at least another 4 years, maybe more.

Well, we don't yet know if mobile has had a substantial effect on the number of "core" gamers interested in a dedicated gaming portable.

The GBA moved about 80 Million units, the DS 150 Million, and the 3DS 60 Million.

What we can deduce from this is that mobile has indeed taken away the sizable "casual" crowd the DS brought in, but it hasn't taken away the majority of "core" gamers interested in such a device (though it definitely has taken some).

The question is, will that number continue to fall, and if so, by how much. Certainly if the baseline is, I dunno, 40 Million consumers interested in such a device (just pulling this out), certainly that'd be enough to stay in that market (especially if they have no competition from Sony next go 'round).

Really, the only way we will ever know, is for Nintendo to release their next handheld, and see how it goes.

Like I think @Skywake said, mobile killed the cheap digital camera market, but it didn't kill off the professional grade camera market (and likely never will), because the top of the line cameras will always be better than whatever the top smart devices have at the time. If that market is large enough to sustain itself, the market for dedicated gaming devices should survive too.

@RR529 If you add 10-15 million Vita sales to that 3DS number, you're actually pretty close to what the GBA has sold. And the 3DS is still selling. Last generation was anomaly for all consoles, which makes it difficult to make any proper comparison between generations. So yes, it's less than what the DS has sold, but considering the handheld market before that? It's about the same today as it was 15 years ago.

Piracy was also rampant during the lifespan of the DS, hence its high sales. I'm sure that there has been a significant portion of the userbase who had only ever bought the R4 (or equivalent) flash cards and just called it a day. I'd have no idea just how many of those flashcards were produced, but there were several stalls at a market where I used to work where they were widely available (and openly advertised!) and they have never been apprehended for it (as they so sorely deserved). But then, most of the stalls were hawking off dodgy merchandise, so over 50% of the stalls (to my estimation, and that's being generous) would need to be closed down due to sale of bootleg or other illegal merchandise.

Personally, I'm not too fussed about a new handheld unless we suddenly start getting massive GTA-style open world games on the handheld (in fact, we've gotten FEWER open world games on the 3DS than the technically inferior DS!). I just want to see more games on the system. We were spoiled during the lifespan of the DS as virtually every genre, major IP and niche was covered. The 3DS has been a huge disappointment in comparison (though I can't complain about the quality of Nintendo-published software that we have seen this generation, as sparse as they have been).

I believe only the R4 is illegal to sell in Australia, the rest are still legal. As long as they don't have any illegal software on them of course.

OT: I don't really want to spend the money but the 3DS hardware is showing its age, there isn't a snowball's chance that the hardware is going to be good enough for another 2 years let alone 4.

The GBA was only around for 3 years though. 3DS is at 5 now.

Speaking for myself, I definitely play my handheld less. Before mobile games were around, I'd bring my Gameboy and DS with me everywhere. Now I pretty much exclusively play 3DS on long trips and at home, while short breaks see me playing Hearthstone or Doodle Jump (yes, I still play that, because it's hella fun).

Many 3rd party handheld staples have also moved to mobile, particularly sports games. Madden 06 was one of the first games I got on DS, but now EA doesn't even bother with 3DS.

I agree with you that there is probably still a sizeable market, but why should Nintendo even bother with the risk when Sony has given up and software sales are still strong?

@iKhan To prevent the market from shrinking even further. It's no secret that hardware sales have been decreasing; same is true for software sales. Launch a new system now when you still have the attention of your userbase (well, late 2017 at this point, but you get my point). If you wait too long, people will move on to other things. The 3DS is already scraping the barrel in terms of new games. What's left? Every major franchise has had one or two entries on the system already. It's time for the next handheld.

Nintendo has made 3 generations of games on hardware with 3DS levels of power. I'm sure they can think of plenty to keep the system going.

Well, except the fact that for Nintendo, they also make money off hardware and software licensing fees. So for them, a new handheld means an opportunity to both sell their fans a new system and to get whatever third parties remain to make games for it. If you don't make a new system, you lose the money gained from selling a new console.

Also, you've got to keep in mind that:

Nintendo don't like to release multiple similar titles on one system. Which means a 3DS successor provides an opportunity to sell 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Smash Bros, Pokemon and god knows what else to the fans yet again. New Super Mario Bros 4DS would get a lot better reception than New Super Mario Bros 3, now also on the 3DS.

And then compared to phones... well again, Nintendo likes to own their platforms, not be party to someone else's demands. A new handheld makes that possible. They also like to release certain games with button controls, which aren't exactly doable on a smartphone.

Either way, there's plenty of reasons why it makes sense for Nintendo to make a next gen handheld.

Sure but the games are really looking dated on the system compared to the visuals you can get on mobile. You can get a new phone outright for around $50AU that can do better visuals than the 3DS. Do Nintendo need better hardware just for Pokemon? Probably not. We're going to buy those games anyways. But the longer they don't release a successor the better the tech they can put into it gets. And the bigger the jump is the more options open up for them.

@iKhan I have read your post three times and I still don't understand your argument. Let me see if I have this correct. You are basically saying;
"Meh, the 3DS has only sold 50 million units. Lets call it a day."

I honestly do not know what to say about this other than you do not have the attitude that wins. If you have anything about you, you should be thinking "Wow, that mobile market is growing. How do we get in on that?". I am sure their next handheld will be different to 3DS and be desirable to mobile gamers in some way. Nintendo will be seeing an opportunity, not preparing to concede (seriously, who does that??). Please don't read like I am hating or anything. Just saying differently is all

Wow, what is wrong with the new generations? Since when selling 50 or 60 millions handhelds and getting profit from each sale means getting out of the market?

Sure, the 3DS does not have the DS's sales, but it makes for an interesting analysis - does it mean handhelds are on the way out OR were the DS's high sales a fluke? Considering the DS and the Wii managed to tap in the casual market, I'd go with the second.

A reminder that if Nintendo was this short sighted and stupid, they would also cancel literally every game series forever except like 4 of them.

The Wii U has sold an estimated 13 Million Units, The 3DS has sold an estimated 58 Million Units
(Not the best source but http://www.vgchartz.com/)

And Nintendo is still making the NX which is going to (Most likely) replace the Wii U. But the 3DS is the system that is dead and Nintendo shouldn't make another handheld system? I don't see the logic behind this. As long as Nintendo is able to make some Profit from their systems they will continue to make them. Once Nintendo puts out a handheld system that fails terribly, like say the Vita (which launched the same year as the 3DS, I believe) then we can start talking about how Nintendo should stop making handhelds.

It makes more sense for them to release another handheld than it does for them to release another home console.

@skywake Mobiles may be better than the 3DS in visual wise, but graphic wise, they are horrible.

I have here an S5 and I can't get Asphalt 8 running smoothly as I want it. There's also the problem of the system not being able to have services that handhelds do a proper job at. Constant crashing, too many bugs the works.

And lastly, the batteries in the system drain faster than what the Nintendo handhelds usually drain.

People tend to forget that the 3DS is making profit for Nintendo. So if it makes them profit, then its only good for them and not bad and they would like to do more of that.

I'm still against the idea of them releasing games on phones but seeing as how Nintendo dominates the portable market, obviously ending that trend will worsen their business.

@GrailUK @Luna_110

There is nothing wrong with new generations. I personally would love more powerful handheld hardware. But remember that Nintendo and other hardware makers make money off of software, so the only business reason to make new hardware is when there is a need to increase software sales.

Usually, that need comes due to competition. If Microsoft never put out the 360 and Nintendo never put out the Wii, the PS2 could have easily been Sony's platform of choice for the next several years. I'm sure eventually, it can also come with general fatigue, but that takes much longer.

With the 3DS, Nintendo doesn't have direct competition, and are thus not at risk of losing their audience to something else. Instead, they can milk the 3DS software cow for several more years.

@Socar
I think you got the wrong end of the stick again. I wasn't talking about the quality of content on mobile vs the 3DS at all. Clearly games like Pokemon, Smash Bros, Zelda and so on are better than the average mobile game. No question about that. But mobile hardware itself has improved to the point where an entry level smartphone has a better screen, more RAM, better CPU and better GPU than the 3DS.

Which gives Nintendo plenty of opportunity to use that hardware in a brand new portable system

I didn't say anything about the quality either. I said that to have games running smoothly, mobiles are downright terrible at that most of the time.